EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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Originally Posted by whereismygc

WhereismyGC forecast updated. For details view ..

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...5787#post55787

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The following is from Ron Gotcher

http://www.immigration-information.c....18086/page-55


AILA just posted the notes of their monthly meeting with Charlie Oppenheim last Thursday. Highlights include:

Worldwide EB-2. The demand in this category has exploded, far exceeding the historical pattern of the previous five months. There was an 80% increase in demand from February to March, and demand increased more than 100% in April as compared to February. The Visa Office had no advance notice that this demand would materialize, or whether it will be sustained. Despite this unanticipated surge in worldwide EB-2 demand, it is expected that this category will remain current.

While the increase in demand will not impact worldwide EB-2 applications, it will negatively impact EB-2 India in that fewer unused worldwide numbers are likely to be available for EB-2 India. Earlier in the year, Charlie expected that he would be able to advance EB-2 India to July or August 2009 by the end of the fiscal year. That may not be possible now, given the uptick in worldwide usage.​

and

Number use during the first six months of the last fiscal year suggested that a significant number of "otherwise" unused EB-1 and EB-2 numbers would be provided to EB-2 India. Therefore, best and worst case scenarios were provided to USCIS regarding the cut-off which might be achieved for FY2014, and USCIS used that information in deciding whether to issue RFEs. The EB-2 India cut-off date advanced very rapidly from July through September, reaching May 1, 2009. Although the worst case scenario cut-off date was surpassed, subsequent increases in EB-1 and EB-2 number use during the summer months did not allow the best case scenario to be achieved. Much of that increase was the result of EB-3 India cases being upgraded to EB-2. The Visa Office has no information regarding the demand that may result from such upgrades until that change is actually reported by USCIS.

The May 1, 2009 cut-off date was held for October, the first month of the new fiscal year, in an attempt to allow final action to occur on cases which had become eligible for processing during the summer months. It was then necessary to retrogress the cut-off date for November in order to limit number use under the FY2015 limits. After discussing the issue with USCIS, the Visa Office decided to begin advancing the cut-off date for EB-2 India much earlier in the fiscal year than in previous years. The hope was that this would provide sufficient time for I-485s that were filed last year to be processed to conclusion prior to the expiration of the medical exams, and provide additional time for those who would be filing this year.

One by-product of the earlier rapid movement of EB-2 India was that the surge in EB-3 to EB-2 upgrades began much earlier than in years past. The Visa Office could not predict volume of demand for upgrades, or the rate at which the increase in demand would be realized. The amount of demand, combined with a staggering increase in overall EB-2 number use during the past two months, will likely slow the advancement of EB-2 India through the rest of the fiscal year. If the March/April demand turns out to be a temporary aberration and demand returns to that which we experienced from October to February, movement of the EB-2 India cut-off date could be more favorable.​

YT,

Thanks for the reply. I appreciate it.

I think we can both agree it is damn difficult to forecast with so many unknown variables.

I hope your figure is correct and as we have said several times, something has always happened to rescue EB2-I. I just fear it isn't there this year.

In general I am in quite close agreement to your forecast. The only area we differ in is the number use for EB2-WW.

It has been a while since I posted in this forum. I did find the recent discussion about EB2-IC vs E2-NonIC interesting.
To remind:
-PERM processing times in Oct2012 were about 60 days. That has grown to about 8 months
-I-485 processing times in Oct2012 were about 4 months. That has grown to about 8-12 months (based on Trackitt which is way more reliable than the USCIS website)

I think the combination of these two factors has lead to a steady backlog of NonIC cases that are ready to be approved. The visa office has already suggested there was a spike in approvals from USCIS in March and April.
Objectively speaking, I expect NonIC to consume at least 90% of the visas available this year (Around 30-32K). EB2-I/C will get "spillover" in the form of EB-1 and unused FB-cases from FY2014.

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Originally Posted by krishn

Still looks like 6k FA to EB3I. So the EB3I dates may move into Oct2004 by Sept2015.

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It's only 6K total projected allocation, not 6K FA. That will take the EB3I COD only up to April or May 2004, if at all. CO's reticence on EB3I movement is very disconcerting.

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Originally Posted by perestroika

It's only 6K total projected allocation, not 6K FA. That will be enough to take the EB3I COD only up to April or May 2004, if at all. CO's reticence on EB3I movement is very disconcerting.

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I had an opportunity to talk to CO couple of years back regarding under allocation of EB3 visas to India. At that time I felt he had a bias towards ROW. He seemed to be more concerned about EB3-ROW than decade old backlogs in EB3-India.

there is only one hope for EB2I in the near future. It is HR 213.

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Originally Posted by gcq

I had an opportunity to talk to CO couple of years back regarding under allocation of EB3 visas to India. At that time I felt he had a bias towards ROW. He seemed to be more concerned about EB3-ROW than decade old backlogs in EB3-India.

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Interesting observation. It does seem that whenever he speaks, he offers no good information to share on EB3I other than stating the obvious, i.e. EB3I is severely backlogged, and demand outruns supply. I assume he's tired of people asking him about it, and the law doesn't allow him to do much for EB3I. Nevertheless, I will go out on one limb and say that he's done a pretty average job over the years. Same with a succession of USCIS directors who fed him information. I don't think government officials care or possess the competence required to deal with complicated problems efficiently.

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Originally Posted by redwood

there is only one hope for EB2I in the near future. It is HR 213.

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It is beyond obvious now that nothing will get through 114th congress. Save your time by not following any immigration related legislative stuff.

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Originally Posted by gcq

I had an opportunity to talk to CO couple of years back regarding under allocation of EB3 visas to India. At that time I felt he had a bias towards ROW. He seemed to be more concerned about EB3-ROW than decade old backlogs in EB3-India.

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Could some one let me know what the unlikeness is between EB and EB-ROW?

Thank you.

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Originally Posted by perestroika

Interesting observation. It does seem that whenever he speaks, he offers no good information to share on EB3I other than stating the obvious, i.e. EB3I is severely backlogged, and demand outruns supply. I assume he's tired of people asking him about it, and the law doesn't allow him to do much for EB3I. Nevertheless, I will go out on one limb and say that he's done a pretty average job over the years. Same with a succession of USCIS directors who fed him information. I don't think government officials care or possess the competence required to deal with complicated problems efficiently.

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Also he blames EB3-I porters anytime there is a slowdown in EB2-I dates including this time though he never has any clarity as to how many people are actually porting until I-485 is approved !

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Originally Posted by gcq

Also he blames EB3-I porters anytime there is a slowdown in EB2-I dates including this time though he never has any clarity as to how many people are actually porting until I-485 is approved !

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gcq,

I don't think CO blames EB3-I porters.

CO is having a regular dig at USCIS for not providing good enough quality of advance information to determine the true future demand.

As CO often says, he has no idea of that demand until the I-485 is approved and it stops him doing his job properly.

One action I hope will come out of the "modernization" is that USCIS will finally be forced to provide much better information to DOS. They are not going to do it voluntarily. A nice side effect could be that the quality of the USCIS Inventory that we see might also improve. At the very least, people should have improved clarity and it might stop the wild swings in Cut Off Dates in EB2.

As for EB3-ROW, as has been discussed, their theoretical quota is substantially reduced by overuse within EB3 under the 7% rule by some Countries. It is therefore quite important that the reduced numbers of visas available to them are fully used.

I have said many times that it is a scandal every time visas are wasted in EB3, particularly since they do not receive additional visas from other Categories at the moment. China, India, Mexico and ROW have all suffered as a result.

Hi YT,
Are there any changes in your prediction for FY 15 after AILA meeting with CO?

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Originally Posted by jimmys

Hi YT,
Are there any changes in your prediction for FY 15 after AILA meeting with CO?

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No. I’m not changing my predictions post CO comments. I’m still positive on what I predicted before.
We know that the FY15Q1 approvals were 30% lesser than the average (31k) in a typical quarter: I485_performancedata_fy2015_qtr1.pdf and CO was talking about the surge in demand during Feb15 to Apr15. We still have 5 more months left in the remaining period of FY15. This surge could be expanded further or get subsided. I’m hoping that this is a temporary surge reflecting the underlying processing dynamics. We will know more in next 2 months.

Just a heads up for those that follow the Trackitt approvals in the FACTS & DATA section.

I'll be traveling for the next 2 weeks or so and unable to update the figures.

I'll catch up and update them sometime around the 2nd week of June.

Yahoo is reporting a new lawsuit against USCIS claiming that officials delay work authorization documents (EADs). The lawsuit is claiming class action status and is possibly asking for temporary work authorization to be re-instated in case of delays. I think it is very relevant for all folks on EAD who nervously wait during renewal to receive cards on time. Consider signing up... the lawsuit was filed in U.S District Court in Seattle.

http://news.yahoo.com/lawsuit-offici...201617008.html

Gurus .. I posted here for visibility. Please move to a appropriate thread.

Thanks Spec! have nice time!

Not sure this is the right place to post it, but some might find this article and database interesting:

http://spectrum.ieee.org/view-from-t...salary-secrets

Interesting case. http://www.murthy.com/2015/05/28/bia...40-revocation/

Do you folks think this would slow down EB3-EB2 porting? Would be blessing in disguise for EB2.

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Originally Posted by asankaran

Interesting case. http://www.murthy.com/2015/05/28/bia...40-revocation/

Do you folks think this would slow down EB3-EB2 porting? Would be blessing in disguise for EB2.

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Right now this is not precedent. Not sure whether decision can be appealed. Even then, the administrative fixes being put in by administration would eventually override this decision. Also murthy states that they are routinely getting PD retention approved.

any ideas, when will it be released ? will July and April be released together at the same time ;-?

All forms Report 2nd Quarter is released.

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...y2015_qtr2.pdf

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

No. I’m not changing my predictions post CO comments. I’m still positive on what I predicted before.
We know that the FY15Q1 approvals were 30% lesser than the average (31k) in a typical quarter: I485_performancedata_fy2015_qtr1.pdf and CO was talking about the surge in demand during Feb15 to Apr15. We still have 5 more months left in the remaining period of FY15. This surge could be expanded further or get subsided. I’m hoping that this is a temporary surge reflecting the underlying processing dynamics. We will know more in next 2 months.

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Now we have the I485_performancedata_fy2015_qtr2.pdf and it shows a moderate increase in 485 approvals and still 15% lesser than a quarterly average approvals (31k). Also, total FY15H1 approvals comes to 47.6k and still they have to approve ~75k in the next 2 quarters(FY15H2). With the current rate of processing speed it is highly impossible to achieve this without spilling the visas to EB2-I. This is the reason I was betting big on processing delays and hence I'm confident that EB2-I receives at least 14k visas this year in spite of huge EB2Row demand.

YT I appreciate your effort. I do a similar kind of calculation as that of yours, but none other than myself could understand how I arrived with those numbers.

Unless otherwise there is going to be a drastic change in processing timings, 15K is agreeable. Let us see!

Another voice in appreciation of your efforts YT. Thank you for sharing your thoughts and calculations with the forum.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

YT I appreciate your effort. I do a similar kind of calculation as that of yours, but none other than myself could understand how I arrived with those numbers.

Unless otherwise there is going to be a drastic change in processing timings, 15K is agreeable. Let us see!

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

Now we have the I485_performancedata_fy2015_qtr2.pdf and it shows a moderate increase in 485 approvals and still 15% lesser than a quarterly average approvals (31k). Also, total FY15H1 approvals comes to 47.6k and still they have to approve ~75k in the next 2 quarters(FY15H2). With the current rate of processing speed it is highly impossible to achieve this without spilling the visas to EB2-I. This is the reason I was betting big on processing delays and hence I'm confident that EB2-I receives at least 14k visas this year in spite of huge EB2Row demand.

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YT -Thank you for your number crunching.

Does that mean there is a better chance of dates to move beyond May/June 2009? From the inventory it looks like there are roughly 10K pending till July 2009. Am I looking at this right or am I missing something? I know porting will add to that 10K but if there is 14K spillover it should be enough to move it to August/September 2009?

In previous years this forum used to be active this time of the year but it is different this time. Hope to see some approvals and activity soon.

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Originally Posted by geterdone

YT -Thank you for your number crunching.

Does that mean there is a better chance of dates to move beyond May/June 2009? From the inventory it looks like there are roughly 10K pending till July 2009. Am I looking at this right or am I missing something? I know porting will add to that 10K but if there is 14K spillover it should be enough to move it to August/September 2009?

In previous years this forum used to be active this time of the year but it is different this time. Hope to see some approvals and activity soon.

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I am not an expert but with 14k total visas, I think that a date much beyond that should become current this year. Getting approved is a different story.

Great effort YT. Really appreciate it. I have a feeling at the end of this FY dates will be between Aug 2009 and Oct 2009.

I looked at approvals in 2014 and 2013...2015 q1 and q2 #s are def lower

assuming processing rates only increase nominally, there should be 15k + spill over, which goes to EB2 as most retrogressed (till it catches up with EB2 China)

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Originally Posted by vishnu

I looked at approvals in 2014 and 2013...2015 q1 and q2 #s are def lower

assuming processing rates only increase nominally, there should be 15k + spill over, which goes to EB2 as most retrogressed (till it catches up with EB2 China)

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I sure hope it happens that way. One thing or the other comes through for EB2I every year. But we need to be cautious at the same time .. dont count your chickens before they hatch. :)

YT, When do you expect next inventory build up for EB2-I based on 15k expected SO this FY?
My PD is Feb 2011. Do you think it will be with the start of next FY (oct-nov)?

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Originally Posted by bikenlalan

YT, When do you expect next inventory build up for EB2-I based on 15k expected SO this FY?
My PD is Feb 2011. Do you think it will be with the start of next FY (oct-nov)?

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Please follow my earlier posts or this one: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...5783#post55783. The estimated 14k figure was NOT an SO it’s the expected total visa allocations to EB2-I in FY15. I did not do any estimation on PD movements but if you ask me to guess I would say it will be till Sep’09 by this Sep 30th so that CO can grab all the low hanging fruits in that range whose medicals are not expired. Regarding inventory build-up I would expect it will certainly happen in FY16 but the date movements will depend on ROW demand and processing delays, check this old post: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...3828#post53828

After a short sojourn, I have updated the Trackitt figures in FACTS & DATA.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

After a short sojourn, I have updated the Trackitt figures in FACTS & DATA.

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Thanks for the data Spec.

EB-5 is up for renewal and looks like Grassley and others plan on renewing it but this time they want to raise the bar. I am wondering if this is likely to have any "significant" side effect on other EB movement (specifically EB2-I and EB3-I).

http://www.grassley.senate.gov/news/...egional-center

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

We know that the FY15Q1 approvals were 30% lesser than the average (31k) in a typical quarter: I485_performancedata_fy2015_qtr1.pdf and CO was talking about the surge in demand during Feb15 to Apr15. We still have 5 more months left in the remaining period of FY15. This surge could be expanded further or get subsided. I’m hoping that this is a temporary surge reflecting the underlying processing dynamics. We will know more in next 2 months.

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YT,

What you say is true about the typical approval figures for a quarter, but it is possible that this year is not typical.

For instance, compared to Q1 FY2014, Q1 FY2015 had far fewer EB2-I approvals (c. 6k) and far fewer EB3 approvals (c. 10k), so it is not necessarily surprising that quarterly approvals were so low. Similarly, EB1 and EB3 approvals were low in Q2 FY2015 compared to Q2 FY2014.

The USCIS approval numbers to date for FY2015 are quite analogous to FY2011 :

Q1 - 21.4k vs. 24.0k
Q2 - 26.2k vs. 21.9k

In FY2011, EB2-I ultimately received 24k approvals, but only because EB1 gave 15k Fall Down and EB4 and EB5 had fewer approvals at that time. EB2-WW did not contribute Fall Across.

Another factor to consider is that EB5 and EB3-P have probably received large numbers of approvals in the first 2 quarters and both have high CP rates that will not be reflected in the USCIS figures.

In the very best case, it is perhaps possible that your figure might be achieved (as you say, there is some time to the end of the FY), but the possibility of a lower figure cannot be discounted at this stage. EB2-WW approvals remained at elevated levels in May and seem healthy to date in June. They need to collapse significantly for EB2-I to receive significant spillover. The number of pending cases do not suggest that. USCIS processing delays would be a more likely cause, but that can hurt EB2-I as well.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

YT,

What you say is true about the typical approval figures for a quarter, but it is possible that this year is not typical.

For instance, compared to Q1 FY2014, Q1 FY2015 had far fewer EB2-I approvals (c. 6k) and far fewer EB3 approvals (c. 10k), so it is not necessarily surprising that quarterly approvals were so low. Similarly, EB1 and EB3 approvals were low in Q2 FY2015 compared to Q2 FY2014.

The USCIS approval numbers to date for FY2015 are quite analogous to FY2011 :

Q1 - 21.4k vs. 24.0k
Q2 - 26.2k vs. 21.9k

In FY2011, EB2-I ultimately received 24k approvals, but only because EB1 gave 15k Fall Down and EB4 and EB5 had fewer approvals at that time. EB2-WW did not contribute Fall Across.

Another factor to consider is that EB5 and EB3-P have probably received large numbers of approvals in the first 2 quarters and both have high CP rates that will not be reflected in the USCIS figures.

In the very best case, it is perhaps possible that your figure might be achieved (as you say, there is some time to the end of the FY), but the possibility of a lower figure cannot be discounted at this stage. EB2-WW approvals remained at elevated levels in May and seem healthy to date in June. They need to collapse significantly for EB2-I to receive significant spillover. The number of pending cases do not suggest that. USCIS processing delays would be a more likely cause, but that can hurt EB2-I as well.

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You have spoiled my party with your objective thinking :)

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Originally Posted by idiotic

You have spoiled my party with your objective thinking :)

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My thoughts exactly :)... but thanks Spec for the dose of reality. Thanks YT too for the optimism and calculations.. appreciate your efforts! For those of us who are waiting in line, we need checks on both optimism and reality :)

I want to make it very clear that I am not saying YT is wrong. The arguments are well thought out. We are very fortunate to have YT as part of the forum and I follow the posts as avidly as anyone else.

I completely understand where YT is coming from, particularly as we enter the last quarter and EB2-I approvals generally ramp up and other approvals slow down.

My thoughts are just a counterpoint to those views. I think it important to understand both sides of the equation. I've suggested a possible reason why approvals in the first half of the FY might be lower than normal - it doesn't follow that those thoughts are correct.

I am concerned that EB2-WW approvals have not shown any signs of slowing down so far and that the gap between current use and the allocation available only narrows as the approvals continue.

Let's just hope for the best, yet recognize that it may not be as good as we hoped for.

Spec,

Thanks for your comments.

I too agree with you: the possibility of a lower figure cannot be discounted at this stage.
I see last 4 consecutive quarters’ I-140 approvals are already headed into a historical high: 86k approvals.
Last time we saw this kind of approvals was during FY11Q3 to FY12Q2: 85k approvals and we all know what happened in FY12: EB2-ROW became unavailable.
But there is a difference in then and now: the India share in PERM increased, rate of India porting is increased and I'm hoping that there are more no of India applications in those 86k I-140 approvals which will just go into cold storage.

Still for some reason I’m not able to predict any low figure as low as 10k for EB2-I this year. I would like to see more data pointers to convince myself.

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

Spec,

Thanks for your comments.

I too agree with you: the possibility of a lower figure cannot be discounted at this stage.
I see last 4 consecutive quarters’ I-140 approvals are already headed into a historical high: 86k approvals.
Last time we saw this kind of approvals was during FY11Q3 to FY12Q2: 85k approvals and we all know what happened in FY12: EB2-ROW became unavailable.
But there is a difference in then and now: the India share in PERM increased, rate of India porting is increased and I'm hoping that there are more no of India applications in those 86k I-140 approvals which will just go into cold storage.

Still for some reason I’m not able to predict any low figure as low as 10k for EB2-I this year. I would like to see more data pointers to convince myself.

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YT,

Thanks for your insights.

Here's what I am seeing on PERM approvals this year:

ROW ------ 1,750 / month average
Mexico ------ 115 /month average
Philippines --- 100 / month average

Worldwide - 1,965 / month average

China ------- 480 / month average

India ----- 3,690 / month average **

** Around 5k CTS cases were approved in March and April (which distorted the normal % distribution). Excluding that one off injection of Indian approvals, the India figure becomes:

India ----- 3,060 / month average

and the underlying % of Indian PERM certifications remains fairly constant at around 56%.

China represents around 9% and WW represents around 35%.

Including the CTS approvals raises India to 60%, reduces China to 8% and reduces WW to 32%.

It's important to note that the underlying numbers for China and WW haven't changed. Only the % has reduced due to increased India certifications because of CTS cases coming out of Audit/BALCA.

What we do seem to be seeing lately is the start of slower processing by OFLC. That will ultimately be good for India (since it will depress WW certifications for a period of time), but I think that change has happened too late to have an effect on FY2015 I-485 approvals.