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Spec..
thanks for all the hardwork and giving us a good news!! Possible 13K greencards for EB2I is a great news!
I am wondering why you have used the work 'back'. Does that mean green card numbers from EB has moved to FB sometime back?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
skpanda,Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
The word is probably superfluous.
The reason I used it was because of the circular nature of who receives what visas.
Although FB receive any unused EB visas (in the same way as EB receive unused FB visas), very rarely can they benefit from them. This is because the fairly complex FB calculation usually results in a figure lower than the minimum allowed 226k (due to high numbers of Immediate Relative approvals).
That is not the case with spare visas flowing to EB from FB. EB has a very simple calculation and always gets the full benefit.
So, FB do have wasted visas to recapture (ie they never increased the numbers available to them), whereas the reality is that EB don't, since the wasted visas effectively came back to them from FB.
If we get them - it's a bonus.
Here is an explanation from DOS how they arrived at the FB & EB limit in the year 2010:
Family-sponsored Preferences Limit
-----------------------------------
The annual limit is calculated as 480,000 minus the number of aliens who were issued visas or who adjusted to LPR status in the previous fiscal year as
1) immediate relatives of U.S. citizens,
2) children born subsequent to the issuance of a visa to an accompanying parent,and
3) children born abroad to lawful permanent residents on temporary trips abroad minus
4) certain categories of aliens paroled into the United States in the second preceding fiscal year plus
5) unused employment preferences in the preceding year.
The family-sponsored preference limit may not fall below a minimum of 226,000 in any year. The number of legal permanent residents
issued visas or who adjusted status in 2009 under categories 1 to 4 above was 547,193. There were zero unused employment preferences in 2009.
The calculated limit for family-sponsored preferences in 2010 was –67,193 (480,000 minus 547,193 plus 0).
Since this number was below 226,000, the family-sponsored preference limit was set at 226,000
Employment-based Preference Limit
----------------------------------
The annual limit is equal to 140,000 plus unused family-sponsored preferences in the previous fiscal year.
There were 10,657 unused family-sponsored preferences in 2009. The 2010 employment- based preference limit was 150,657.
The limit is 28.6 percent of the total for each of the first three employment preferences and 7.1 percent for each of the last two preferences.
Per Country and Dependent Area Limits
------------------------------------
A limit of 7 percent of the total family-sponsored and employment-based preferences is set for independent countries, and a limit of 2 percent is set for dependent areas. The 2010 per country
limit for independent foreign states was 26,365 (7 percent of 376,657 or 226,000 plus 150,657), and the limit for dependencies was 7,533 (2 percent of 376,657).
Have a closure look at the current DD. It has already accounted these extra visas and confirms the total EB Visas for 2013 as 158k. So this is official now.
Looks like DOS took into account the extra visas from FB category.
Someone on trackitt posted this http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page .
Quote:
Ok I have some confirmed NEWS for you guys.... Check the link http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDeman...
on 02/11 - the same pdf that I saved had total EB world wide limit was 140,000
Today 02/15 - The number changed to 158,000
EB2I changed from 2803 to 3163 - so only 360 extra was allocated!!!
just now saw this in other forum DD is updated with latest limits.
Spec, CO might have looked at your post and updated DD:)
So this confirms 2 things:
1)CO might have missed this information or did not know about this when he put out those comments in March VB
2)There is pretty good chance for dates to move in Q3 may be in May/June at least July
E1
3,164
3,164
45,188
E2
3,163
3,163
45,188
E3/EW
2,863
3,163
45,188**
E4/SR
785
785
11,218
E5
85
785
11,218
Total
10,060*
11,060
158,000
Congrats Spec. We are proud of you
Modified to 158,000 now from 140,000
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
[QUOTE=YTeleven;32954]Here is an explanation from DOS how they arrived at the FB & EB limit in the year 2010:
Family-sponsored Preferences Limit
YTeleven,Quote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven
Yes, it has just been amended.
I have the original March DD document that was last modified on February 08, 2013 at 13:08:28
The new version was last amended on February 15, 2013 at 17:17:29 by "oppenheim" according to the PDF properties. That's only a few minutes ago.
All Demand Data Documents ever published can be found here. I try to update it every month.
It was not updated when it was released last week. I think it was some time yesterday or today.Quote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven
Spec,
Yes. you are correct. Even I've a copy of mine of 08Feb and it has 140k only.
WOW, seems CO is watching this thread....
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
How cool is that .. next bulletin (comments section ) could be inetrestingQuote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I am exited to know about the overflow from FB.
Could some one please tell me if EB3 I will move more than a week now. In other words Does it help me anyway, my PD is Apr 2003(EB3I)
Thanks
Yes. Its really interesting to see the next VB.
Probably CO is getting ready for spillover from next month onwards otherwise I don't see any urgency in updateing a already published DD with newer data.
Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
snvlgopal,Quote:
Originally Posted by snvlgopal
Welcome to the forum.
Unfortunately, I think it will have very little impact for EB3-I.
The extra numbers only increase the EB3-I allocation (7%) from 2,803 to 3,163 according to the revised numbers in the DD document. That is only the equivalent of an extra 30 visas per month.
Without actual spillover visas, it is very difficult for substantial movement for anybody in EB3. Unfortunately, that is not a realistic prospect anytime in the near future, unless CIR passes.
Thanks Spec, hmm my wait still continues :)
Spec, what a find with the FB visas, you're turning into a legend now whether you like it or not :) It is perhaps testimony to how good you can get at doing something when you pursue it with passion, I'm guessing you enjoy the problem solving. Well, the forum is lucky to have you! I hope people respond with the same passion (in a positive way) if things take a turn for the worse.
Spec,
What a genius you are?
You will never believe how many EB2 India families are going to have a happy long weekend (Monday is a holiday for me)
You deserve all the credit and you are awesome man...
As someone said why should CO amend the demand data to include the additional visas for the demand data this is already published. Perhaps he is already started making plans....
There is no doubt someone must have told him about this new development in the last day or two...Remember my post this morning to make sure we need to spread the word to 'CO and the visa office'...
Now the only thing that is needed is to make sure all of these extra visas get utilized and turn into GREEN CARDS
Will he publish a new visa bulletin (amended one) to remove the negative projection he had made?
Thanks to everyone..what a great forum....
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
To spec
I saw this on ILW today and it says that the EB-5 usage may increase in the Q4.Hopefully this will not impact spillover to EB2
http://discuss.ilw.com/content.php?1...nard-Wolfsdorf
If CO applies quarterly spill over like he did last year all of the extra numbers from eb4,5,1 comes to EB2 right away as those categories are already current. I guess CO will assess current usage and future demand based on history for EB4 , EB5 & EB1 and decide what would be the date for EB2I in next bulletin. China is already at 15-FEB-08, he will try to bring EB2I also to the same date. In any case he will do controlled movement as he already knows the existing demand.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Let's hope for the best. Spec your finding making rounds every where now and you are a STAR.
My special Thanks to Spectator for giving valuable info which no other websites/lawyers were able to provide us.
Thank you Spectator. You deserve all the praise bestowed on you.
You have already provided wonderful analysis with all spillover category.
I still have some confusion. Since all the unused FB visa, DOS has already divided across. So we will only know in last quarter how many visas will be available for EB2-IC.
Since DOS/USCIS has already adjusted their demand data. Can you please adjust prediction on spilovers for my curious mind?
EB1 - 5K?? (45188)
EB4 - 2K?? (11218)
Eb3 - 00 (45188)
EB5 - ?? (11218)
EB2WW - ?? (41188 - 6326 = 38862)
I'm not sure how accurate my calculation is but if EB2I will recive another 13K this fiscal year, date may reach March 2008 and then for each 1500-1800 extra numbers it will move another month.
Thank you again
snvlgopal,
Assuming no changes to the current immigration laws and considering current porting rate and existing demand till APR'2003, your PD may become current sometime around JUL'14.
Quote:
Originally Posted by snvlgopal
The news of additional visa from FB category is a welcome relief after 5 months of gloom and doom. Now that this is a certainty given that the March DD document has been modified to reflect this, I was wondering how would the CO handle the timing of the SO reallocation which now has two sources 1) FB and 2) EB.
Now that there are "formally" more numbers, we can possibly deduce how many porters are actually there whenever they move the dates. Porting has been hyped a lot by CO, and it would be good to see the actual numbers.Quote:
Originally Posted by natvyas
Even after 4 days, news on other places is not released about FB xtra visa.WOW!!
Murthy has posted , dismal putlook for eb2 YESTERDAY, feb15th..Murthy...wake up...Others..come on!!!this is IT.
Anyways...I am glad that I have been following this forum. It is huge help..and this instance has proven it more than ever.
Hi
I am new to this site but was very happy to see some hope.When do we think the Movement for June 2008 EB2I?
Thanks in Advance.
erikbond101,Quote:
Originally Posted by erikbond101
Q, Veni and myself have updated our overall predictions to take account of the extra FB numbers on the first page of this thread.
Spec, we cannot thank you enough for your analysis and painstaking data gathering! You are a blessing to us on this forum.
I didn't see anyone else on this forum mention this (apologies if I did miss it).
The Annual Numerical Limits document on the DOS website was also updated on February 15, 2013 to reflect 158k visas for EB are now available.
Thank you. again
Thanks a bunch Spec for the excellent work!
I hope these additional GCs changes the outlook for EB2I in CO's mind soon. When do you expect DOS start moving the cut-off dates forward for EB2I and roughly how much do you expect the first forward move to be?
Thanks again for the superb work you been doing for the legal immigration community!
Sent you a PM Spectator
Thank you!
I am new to this forum.. With all the discussion on spill over, didnt we get spill over in 2012 also? If yes then how did EB2 I end up in Unavailable state or is it that there was no spill over last year?
sandyn1116,
Welcome to the forum!!
We did get spill over in 2012 and dates moved to 01 May 2010 before it become unavailable in Jun 2012 visa bulletin. Dates were moved too aggressively than available Visas, so they had to make them Unavailable until they can come-up with priority date of 01 Sep 2004 for next FY in October 2012 Visa bulletin. Dates were struck pretty-much around there for more than 6 months now using up available monthly visa quota by porting/pending cases.
Hope this helps.
Gurus, please correct me if I missed/misstated something.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sandyn1116
Last year CO started releasing Spill Over numbers ahead of time(Nov to April) to build the pipe line. He did not have enough clarity on what would be the actual demand at that time. He released more numbers to EB2 I than what he is supposed to, that made EB2 I unavailable at the end of the year.Quote:
Originally Posted by sandyn1116
General questions should be posted in the forum.Quote:
Originally Posted by helooo
longwait100,Quote:
Originally Posted by longwait100
The only actual extra visas available now (based on official documents) are due to the increase in 7% between 40,040 and 45,188 for the 6 months (Oct-Mar) to date.
That is (3,163-2,803)/2 = 180 visas
For a single month, there might be 285+180 = 465 visas available if CO decides to play "catch up".
Given CO mentioned that retrogression from 01SEP04 was possible without the extra visas, I think the extra numbers will not have a great effect and the Cut Off Date is still likely to remain at 01SEP04 through June 2013. If there is any forward movement, it is likely to be very small.
Spillover remains a potential bonus and I don't think CO will release it until the July 2013 VB. He released it too early last year and was burnt. By June 2013 (when the VB is released), he should have a better idea of what the other Categories (EB1 and EB2-WW in particular) are likely to use.
sandyn1116,Quote:
Originally Posted by sandyn1116
EB2-India received 16,923 spillover visas last year (19,726 in total). CO started releasing spillover from the beginning of the year.
Unfortunately, CO allocated far more visas to EB2-I than were actually available.
When he realised this (too late), he had to make EB2-I Unavailable and retrogress EB2-WW to stay within the numbers available for EB2.
For this year, to date, CO appears to have been only using the initial EB2-I allocation of 2,803 visas (now raised to 3,173). Because 27% can be allocated in each of the first 3 quarters, that was 252 visas per month (now 285 visas per month).
There have been sufficient EB2-I cases per month with a PD before September 2004 to use that number of visas, so the Cut Off Date has not moved.
Welcome to the forum. Nice to see lots of new people here. Q and spec are just awesome beyond words.Quote:
Originally Posted by helooo
Spec, I agree on what you said on when CO is going to release Spill over numbers.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
But it is always possible that he can play the number game again ahead of time based on these extra numbers. It is all based on what is the current demand trend and any possible spikes in demand from other categories. Last year scenario was different, where he did not have enough data on the demand from EB2I/C. Now he has clear picture on what is the actual demand and he can do controlled movement ahead of time to manage USCIS workload.
IMHO, Last years inventory was low, hence the action to extend the PD. Now there are enough inventory and demand. More over demand increase is unpredictablle that it matches with monthly allocation about 300 per month. If spill over applied in next month itself, the dates may once again retrogress in August/Septmber. if the numbers of porters exceed the so called controlled monthly allocation of spill over.
Only if we know the number of EB3-EB2 upgrades before 2007 and waiting ready to interfile, then the situation would be clearer.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pdmay2008
Spectator,
I still can't understand the reasoning behind EB1 and EB2-ROW spillover estimates on the front page. EB1 spillover seems too high and EB2-ROW seems too low. For EB1 I understand the Kazarian effect but in the years before it the spillover wasn't as high as the estimate. Also, no one seems to take into account that EB2-ROW PERM (approved) applications have had 43% reduction over last year i.e. 2012 compared to 2011.