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Hi Gurus,
My PD - August 2010 (EB3 - India)
I don't have any hope for my GC in next 2 or 3 years minimum. At least, If I get a chance to file my I-485 that's a big relief. So that will receive EAD/AP
Any predictions, when can I expect to file my I-485?
Thanks
I would say probably somewhere around 5-6 years. That's when you should be able to file I-485. When you get an actual green card is another matter. Right now, people who are filing I-485 are waiting more than a year to get the green card due to mandatory interview requirements.Quote:
Originally Posted by harinatham14
My date is in May, 2011 and I am expecting to get current in 11 years.
Now having said that, 5 years is a long timeframe so there is always a possibility that relief may come in form of some kind of a limited or comprehensive immigration reform or some kind of legislation that goes through Congress or may be DOS may advance filing dates and USCIS would respect those dates so at least we can get EAD. Obviously, this is all wishful thinking and things may not change at all and we all may just continue to wait eternally.
But I personally believe that we have reached a critical level where people in backlog are now very much aware at their own plight, especially with aging out children and they will be persistent in their efforts to get something done for their own sake and for their children's sake because they know that by doing nothing, they will continue to suffer.
Any one beyond Mid 2010 India will probably retire before they get GC.
Well said , TRUEQuote:
Originally Posted by Dondraper
Though I tend to think 5-6 years is a stretch for EB-3 India Aug 2010 PD for filing I-485, I won't rule out the possibility.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes
My PD is EB-3/EB-2 July 2009 (I have two I-140s) and didn't get a chance to file in 2012. In FY 2014 last quarter, the EB-2 dates moved to May 1,2009. I was disappointed then and thought I will be current in October 2014 at the latest. Dead wrong. What actually happened was, I became current only in October 2018 in EB-3. Yes, it only took 4 years :mad:.
Yep. we both are on the same boat.... :)
Year 2040 and indian guys with PD 2010 will still be on this forum waiting for GC though. The line will probably never cross 2010 IMO for the next 10 years .Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmys
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dondraper
You are absolutely right. In 10 Year's eb2i progressed by 8 months.
My PD is July 2010. I began to estimate my Date of Filing will be current when Final Action Date is 3 months away (Mar/Apr 2010) for EB3.Quote:
Originally Posted by harinatham14
I think we will get good picture in May/June of each year if there will be Spill Over or not and estimate change drastically.
At present 3-4 yrs to get EAD is my estimate for Aug 2010
With a May 2010 EB2-I, I started out thinking it will take the usual ~5 yrs. Then when that passed, I thought, "ehh maybe 7 yrs". Now I have settled in to "umm maybe 12 yrs?". :D
Have you asked the folks who filed GC with PD 2010 back in 2012 ?. It sure isnt three months awayQuote:
Originally Posted by GCdreamz
My honest opinion, we should review if all (or majority) waiting 2009 guys are all straight Eb2 I or ported from Eb3 I.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dondraper
Otherwise it will be a moving goalpost
Spec updated the year end consular processing figures and there looks to be ~20,000 spillover coming from family based GCs (Assumes that Adjustment of Status remains at ~16,000 as it has been over the last few years).
This post is just a number plugging to Spec's original post of hypothetical 10,000 spillover here: https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ll=1#post62399
Spillover coming: ~20,000
FB Spillover - EB1 ----- EB2 ----- EB3 ----- EB4 ----- EB5 ----- Total
Prorated ---- 28.6% --- 28.6% --- 28.6% ---- 7.1% ---- 7.1% --- 100.0%
20,000 ----- 5,720 --- 5,720 --- 5,720 ----- 1,420 ----- 1,420 --- 20,000
7% ----------- 400 ----- 400 ----- 400 ------ 100 ------ 100 ------ 1400
In EB1, EB2 and EB3 the overall allocation would increase from 40,040 to 45,760.
The 45,760 would initially be distributed as
Group ---------- Total -- Increase
China ---------- 3,203 ------- 400
India ---------- 3,203 ------- 400
Mexico --------- 3,203 ------- 400
Philippines ---- 3,203 ------- 400
ROW ----------- 32,948 ----- 4,120
Total --------- 45,760 ----- 5720
Since both EB1ROW is heavily backlogged, it will gobble it all up. Since EB2ROW is lightly backlogged, and since new ROW's EB1A and EB1B will likely come in as EB2NIW, EB2ROW will also gobble up everything coming its way.
The extra 4120 coming EB3-ROW's way provides some hope that EB3-I may get some of it this year. But nothing that is a game changer.
So EB2I and EB3I will get 400 visas each is what you are saying?Quote:
Originally Posted by rocketfast
Iatiam
Last year some what better we get a total of 10,146(EB2: 4096, EB3: 6,050) on total got at least 4k visas extra. With this pace we won't be able to clear 2009 data for another 3-4 years.
EB2I has a June 2009 bump it needs to cross and dates may start moving again a bit more rapidly till end of 2009. Remember that 2009 was a historically low filing period due to recession. However, the dates 2010 and beyond seem hopeless at this point.Quote:
Originally Posted by vbollu
Iatiam
Quote:
Originally Posted by iatiam
I think word extra is missing from above sentence.
Based on ~20k spillover from family, expected yearly quota for EB2 and EB3-I will increase by 400 each. So 3200 instead of 2800 within each category.
Net 800 extra for EB-2 and EB-3.
I doubt the numbers are low. How long has PD been in 2009 ? From Aug 2014 to date its stuck in 2009. So that is like 5 years and we have barely scratched June 2009. LEts say another 5 years to complete 2009. and than 2010. That will probably take 10+ year clear. So wait time will increase to 20+ for just those folks who filed in 2010. I cant imagine for those beyond 2010. No hopeQuote:
Originally Posted by iatiam
I am basing it on July 2018 inventory. If you have better data do bring it and we can discuss. Else your guess is as good as mine. Also the main reason why EB2I dates have not moved has been generally attributed to porting from EB3 which has stopped.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dondraper
You can also be super conservative and say that it will take 20 years or 200 years to clear 2010 but truth is that so many things like economy slowdown or legislative relief are impossible to predict.
Iatiam
There is no doubt that EB2 stalled because of EB3 porters from PDs 2003-2008. After all it wasnt a hugely difficult task to port after getting 5 years experience. My estimates based on old inventory data had pegged 20K visas to porting from 2012-2018.Quote:
Originally Posted by iatiam
But all that is over now - now what we have is effectively a joint line of eb2 and eb3. Another estimate of mine has Eb3 numbers at around 50 percent of EB2 - for 2009. The consular numbers are though whole another thing. No one thought of that to be a game changer.
I agree with you completely and then this happens:Quote:
Originally Posted by excalibur123
https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/
CO is attributing the one-day movement to EB3 upgrades. How can this ever be possible given EB3 was in sync or ahead of EB2 at least five months this year. Unbelievable!
Also where is the CP EB3 demand coming from? Based on Spec's figures, about 1,700 people applied for consular processing last year. I know that Indian IT companies are "flexible", but it's crazy to believe that all these people were employed in the same position for the last decade. Also, this "Ethical Flexibility" is what increased the filings in EB1C.
Iatiam
I am all for supporting the removal of per country limits but our own Indian companies and Indian Nationals responsible for gaming the system by entering again through consular processing or international manager route.Quote:
Originally Posted by iatiam
BTW, I am in Medical field
How difficult is to "find" a desi consultant and apply for a new PERM/ I-140? You retain the PD for the new PERM even if you have gone back. I am sure many would have figured it out.Quote:
Originally Posted by iatiam
You are right we Indians are experts in Gaming the system. But, immigrants from other countries do that too, no one is an exception when it comes to gaming the system, we are the best among them all !! No reforms will ease this frustrating situation, there are another 10k+ pending cases before the date hits 2010.Quote:
Originally Posted by canada
Like QUIT INDIA movement helped India get independence, QUIT USA moment may give independence to backlogged Engineers and Doctors.
Unbelievable to see EB3 to EB2 upgrades,still. Better to keep both EB-3 and EB-2 dates close to each other.Quote:
Originally Posted by iatiam
Nothing about EB-3 India though. Since no spillover expected from ROW, EB3-India is screwed this year as well?
No word about potential spillover from FB to EB this FY.
Personally, I think CO is incorrect in his assessment about EB3-EB2 upgrades.Quote:
Originally Posted by iatiam
EB2-I with a 2009 PD have been waiting a long time to become current on a consistent basis.
After the period in 2012 when dates leapt forward, the next time any date in 2009 became current for approval was at the end of FY2014.
After that, (although there were some opportunities to file) 2009 PDs did not become current again for approval until the end of FY2018.
Sure, there probably are some ex EB3-I porters who completed the process many years ago, but there are also a large number of original EB2-I applicants left to approve with a PD in 2009.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thanks for the comment. Is there some data to see how bad the pending demand is?
Iatiam
The problem is over population from India and China. No amount of green cards will be sufficient when every corner in india is churning out engineering degrees by the lakhs. Removing country caps means US will become India and China.Quote:
Originally Posted by FarAwayfromGC
Check-In with Charlie! Predictions through the January 2020 Visa Bulletin
EB-1 India: no forward movement expected through January.
EB-2 India: Monthly movement up to 1 week.
EB-3 India and China: Little, if any, movement.
I am trying to figure out how much SO from FB can EB2/EB3 get in FY 2020. The only recent statistic I have is from FY2013 which per the below link spilled over 18,000 visas.
https://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/02/eb...ional.html?m=1
I checked this number against the numbers reported by DHS in their immigration yearbook as shown below,
Attachment 1534
Putting these things together, I ran a calculation to see how the FB SO matches with the actual allocation and here it is.
Attachment 1535
As you can see, the numbers check out fairly well.
Now the question is, given we can expect around 23,000 visas from FB this year, how will the numbers stack up? If EB1 ROW slows down (as expected) and EB2 ROW & EB3 ROW does not increase in demand, can we expect close to 6,000 visas to spillover to EB2I and EB3I respectively?
Spec, I am looking forward to you poking holes in my numbers
Iatiam
If no category needs those spillover visa numbers, it will most likely end up with the most retrogressed country. But at this point of time, we don't know how the EB-2 ROW and EB-3 ROW will pan out. I suspect EB-2 ROW will yield to EB-2 India but I'm not sure about EB-3 ROW. The CO already told there are thousands of EB-3 ROW pending.
This is a fair point. However, EB1ROW is declining in demand per the last check-in which means it can also benefit EB2ROW. People in ROW who are tempted to go for EB2 due to retrogression will now hold off thereby benefiting EB2I. His point about EB3ROW in the last check-in is interesting. Perhaps this will end up with EB3I not getting and SO this year as well. Let's see what happens.Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmys
Iatiam
Iatiam... where are you getting 23000 SO number from?
Jackbrown, here is the screenshot from Spec's postQuote:
Originally Posted by jackbrown_890
Attachment 1536
Spec tends to be a realist/pessimist when reporting these numbers
Iatiam
For Folks who already have their I-485 application pending and have their EAD/AP, what are the documents that need to be resubmitted other than the Medical examination when the filing dates become current? Thanks.
with FB spillover in mind; any idea where EB2 and/or EB3 dates will reach?
Just changed jobs and new firm is filing in EB3 instead of EB2. if EB3 will stay ahead of EAD/AP I will let it file in EB3 otherwise will fight with my tooth and nails for EB-2 category.
You will get an RFE which will say what USCIS is looking for. The list includes:Quote:
Originally Posted by anfu02
1. I-693 Medicals
2. G-325A Biographic Information Form
3. G-28 Form (if attorney had changed)
4. I485 Supp J (if you had used AC21)
5. Any other concerns or supporting info asked in RFE.
Thanks for the quick response.Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
FB spillover is always distributed proportionate to the category allocation of the 140K visas which means 28.6%, 28.6%, 28.6%, 7.1% and 7.1% respectively to EB1,2,3,4,5. And within this country allocation kicks in which means 460 per country per category (0.286*.07*23K) and any unusued visas will make its lateral movement. The norms for EB2 is always less demanding than EB1 so not sure how you think people will choose EB1 instead of EB2?Quote:
Originally Posted by iatiam