EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

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02-29-2012, 01:38 PM
kd2008

Thank you all for correcting me. I learn something new everyday here.
02-29-2012, 02:49 PM
Osaka001

Here is trackitt numbers update,

PD Range ----- #Months-----# Applications
Aug'07-Mar'08-----8--------1141
Apr'08-Dec'09----- 21-------1075

Country: India, Chargeabilit:India and Cat:Eb2

The number of filings are very low from Apr'08, Am I missing anything?, or people are taking more time to file I-485s.

Quote:

Originally Posted by manzoorraza

Sunny/Prabhas,
Although there have been a lot of queries but still 40-50% does seem very high........and scary. I am personally a subject of one (a pretty nasty one at that) and this percentage is very unnerving. Just waiting for my EAD before I respond to it just in case things go south with the H1.

I have heard that the approval rate has improved a tad recently after some noise was made and there was also talk of the RFE rate being high to quickly go through the backlog and make the processing numbers look better. Another theory doing the rounds is the higher RFE's are being handed out as a justification to additional resources for fraud prevention or vice-versa (depending on who you ask) - All this may add up to a high query/rejection rate. Either way, slowly and steadily, they are catching up with the games being played by the body shops...........the real scary thing is they are opening up cases from the past where there is suspect behavior on part of the employer. Recently heard from one of my colleagues that his company's financials are being investigated and that has been the cause of no one from his company getting an approval on 485 although their priority dates are way in the past. Their attorney/employer is not sure if they will investigate cases where the greencards have already been issued or if they would let bygones be bygones. Am sure this would scare some but offlate things are starting to get more difficult with H1s. Even the site visits have increased a lot; we have had 2 at our client site (one of the largest investment banks) within my group.
02-29-2012, 04:48 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by Osaka001

Here is trackitt numbers update,

PD Range ----- #Months-----# Applications
Aug'07-Mar'08-----8--------1141
Apr'08-Dec'09----- 21-------1075

Country: India, Chargeabilit:India and Cat:Eb2

The number of filings are very low from Apr'08, Am I missing anything?, or people are taking more time to file I-485s.

It is a conversation we have already had.

It is taking 3-4 months for people to add their cases to Trackitt, even if they filed in the month they became Current.

Look at the first table here. Even November VB PD cases are still being added to Trackitt in significant quantities.
02-29-2012, 05:04 PM
kd2008

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

It is a conversation we have already had.

It is taking 3-4 months for people to add their cases to Trackitt, even if they filed in the month they became Current.

Look at the first table here. Even November VB PD cases are still being added to Trackitt in significant quantities.

I simply love that table. Such a wonderful summary of all that has happened since October 2011.
02-29-2012, 05:20 PM
insane_yogi

I might be off-topic, but is there a way from PERM data to filter EB2 and EB3? What about fields like PW_Source_Name_9089/PW_Level_9089 which indicates level of experience required for each job based on PWD ... From my experience noticed that EB2 candidates are usually required to fall under 'Level 3' or 'Level 4' categories. Any comments?
02-29-2012, 06:16 PM
Kanmani

Nope
Ms+0 exp is Level 1 in most cases

Quote:

Originally Posted by insane_yogi

I might be off-topic, but is there a way from PERM data to filter EB2 and EB3? What about fields like PW_Source_Name_9089/PW_Level_9089 which indicates level of experience required for each job based on PWD ... From my experience noticed that EB2 candidates are usually required to fall under 'Level 3' or 'Level 4' categories. Any comments?
02-29-2012, 08:39 PM
insane_yogi

Kanmani:
True but how many employers file in EB2 for MS+0Exp...usually they require 2 to 3 years of exp with current company to file for EB2....
02-29-2012, 09:20 PM
Kanmani

yogi,
There are people with Ms+0, Ms+1 Level 1 Eb2 in my vicinity.
I did all ground-work to differentiate within the Perm data, but I failed to prove that all Level 1 are Eb3 and obviously they are not. In real time scenario many Level1 are Eb2 , many PWD 60K are Eb2.
Its a hard truth to believe:)
02-29-2012, 10:14 PM
Willdo

Gurus,

This is my first post, I was silent reader for long time. and learned much of Immigration stuff from here. I appreciate great help from all the Posters, which help people like me.

Any predictions for upcoming bulletin.....

-WillDO
03-01-2012, 06:53 AM
CleanSock

I have a question. Does EB2 India get Spillover from EB2 Mexico and Philippines?
03-01-2012, 07:18 AM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by CleanSock

I have a question. Does EB2 India get Spillover from EB2 Mexico and Philippines?

CleanSock,

Answer is YES.
03-01-2012, 08:15 AM
CleanSock

Thank You veni001 :) In that case, as per the released PERM data of Q1 FY2012, aren't EB Mexico and Philippines cases really low or have they been approximately the same in every quarter of every year? If they are low only in this quarter, would that mean that there will be more spillover from them?
03-01-2012, 08:25 AM
Spectator

Trackitt Application Update

Here is the bi-monthly update on EB2-I Primary cases added to Trackitt since October 01, 2011.

-- VB ------- Priority Dates ---------------- Jan 03 -- Jan 17 -- Jan 31 -- Feb 14 -- Feb 29 - Change
October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 ---- 100 ----- 107 ----- 113 ----- 125 ----- 134 (+ 9 cases)
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 ---- 238 ----- 278 ----- 331 ----- 387 ----- 454 (+ 67 cases)
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 ---- 191 ----- 286 ----- 336 ----- 436 ----- 540 (+104 cases)
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 ----- 15 ----- 176 ----- 310 ----- 454 ----- 600 (+146 cases)
February VB - PD Jan 01 2009 to Dec 31 2009 ---------------------------------- 199 ----- 368 (+169 cases)

More statistics can be found here, including a breakdown of approvals by PD.
03-01-2012, 08:57 AM
vizcard

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

Here is the bi-monthly update on EB2-I Primary cases added to Trackitt since October 01, 2011.

-- VB ------- Priority Dates ---------------- Jan 03 -- Jan 17 -- Jan 31 -- Feb 14 -- Feb 29 - Change
October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 ---- 100 ----- 107 ----- 113 ----- 125 ----- 134 (+ 9 cases)
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 ---- 238 ----- 278 ----- 331 ----- 387 ----- 454 (+ 67 cases)
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 ---- 191 ----- 286 ----- 336 ----- 436 ----- 540 (+104 cases)
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 ----- 15 ----- 176 ----- 310 ----- 454 ----- 600 (+146 cases)
February VB - PD Jan 01 2009 to Dec 31 2009 ---------------------------------- 199 ----- 368 (+169 cases)

More statistics can be found here, including a breakdown of approvals by PD.

Spec - what does 395 approvals really mean? I imagine that translates to about 6500 "real" approvals assuming 6% of cases are recorded on trackitt? Is that low or high or average?

What am I missing?
03-01-2012, 09:31 AM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by vizcard

Spec - what does 395 approvals really mean? I imagine that translates to about 6500 "real" approvals assuming 6% of cases are recorded on trackitt? Is that low or high or average?

What am I missing?

vizcard,

That is not an easy question to answer.

Both the % of people adding their cases to Trackitt and those subsequently updating them to show an approval appear to have risen from the old pre-backlog cases.

Therefore the number of "real" approvals will be less than the 6.5k you mention.

It could be as low as 4k, but is probably slightly higher than that IMO. Really, it is a judgement call.
03-01-2012, 09:54 AM
kd2008

Like clockwork, the page has been updated:

travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html

Upcoming month's visa bulletin: April 2012 (Coming Soon)

Hopefully, we will see the bulletin by next Friday.

My guess for movement is 0 to 2 months. 4 months if we are very lucky. This is based on hunch as data really does not support the movement we have had so far anyways. I don't expect any retrogression for EB2IC.
03-01-2012, 09:57 AM
cool_guy_2004

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kanmani

yogi,
There are people with Ms+0, Ms+1 Level 1 Eb2 in my vicinity.
I did all ground-work to differentiate within the Perm data, but I failed to prove that all Level 1 are Eb3 and obviously they are not. In real time scenario many Level1 are Eb2 , many PWD 60K are Eb2.
Its a hard truth to believe:)

Hello Kanmani,

Does USCIS prioritize processing the applications basing on these EB2 classification of Level 1, 2, 3..?
03-01-2012, 10:07 AM
Kanmani

Quote:

Originally Posted by cool_guy_2004

Hello Kanmani,

Does USCIS prioritize processing the applications basing on these EB2 classification of Level 1, 2, 3..?

In my opinion, No. But they are giving significance in matching job requirements with that of qualification.
03-01-2012, 10:38 AM
Kanmani

Quote:

Originally Posted by suninphx

At I485 level or I140 level?

I-140 level
03-01-2012, 10:48 AM
cool_guy_2004

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kanmani

In my opinion, No. But they are giving significance in matching job requirements with that of qualification.

hmm...my case was filed with ms+0 exp although I have ms + few yrs of exp by the time they applied for my perm. It now concerns me if USCIS considers mine application as low priority over others instead of PD based.
03-01-2012, 10:56 AM
kd2008

Quote:

Originally Posted by cool_guy_2004

hmm...my case was filed with ms+0 exp although I have ms + few yrs of exp by the time they applied for my perm. It now concerns me if USCIS considers mine application as low priority over others instead of PD based.

Please don't waste your time on made-up worries. The min. qualification has to be what you started the job with. So if you started the job at MS + 0 then that is the min qualification even though they might apply for PERM at 2yrs down the road, say. Mine is somewhat similar case to yours.

As Kanmani said it is at I-140 level and not at I-485 level. So what are you worried about? And even if that made any difference, so what? After waiting so many months, would a wait of few more weeks kill ya?
03-01-2012, 11:01 AM
Kanmani

Quote:

Originally Posted by cool_guy_2004

hmm...my case was filed with ms+0 exp although I have ms + few yrs of exp by the time they applied for my perm. It now concerns me if USCIS considers mine application as low priority over others instead of PD based.

Cool guy, We were referring to diff levels in the perm and I-140 stage and that too I dont find any prioritization based upon qualification in any stage.
Be cool :)
03-01-2012, 11:23 AM
cool_guy_2004

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kanmani

Cool guy, We were referring to diff levels in the perm and I-140 stage and that too I dont find any prioritization based upon qualification in any stage.
Be cool :)

Thanks for the clarification Kanamni!

KD..I didn't know it was applicable for I-140 but now it's clear!
03-01-2012, 11:52 AM
Spectator

I have updated the Prevailing Wage Determination Data Analysis with the Q1 FY2012 figures.

There seems to be a general trend to increasing EB2 applications. No surprise there!
03-01-2012, 12:06 PM
feedmyback

Although it means nothing much..... the visa bulletin page has been updated with "April bulletin coming soon....." message. All the best to everyone waiting......
03-01-2012, 12:40 PM
asankaran

I think it should move till Sep 1, 2010. Probably CO would want to cover 2010 in 3 months. All the best!
03-01-2012, 12:58 PM
immi2910

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

Here is the bi-monthly update on EB2-I Primary cases added to Trackitt since October 01, 2011.

-- VB ------- Priority Dates ---------------- Jan 03 -- Jan 17 -- Jan 31 -- Feb 14 -- Feb 29 - Change
October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 ---- 100 ----- 107 ----- 113 ----- 125 ----- 134 (+ 9 cases)
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 ---- 238 ----- 278 ----- 331 ----- 387 ----- 454 (+ 67 cases)
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 ---- 191 ----- 286 ----- 336 ----- 436 ----- 540 (+104 cases)
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 ----- 15 ----- 176 ----- 310 ----- 454 ----- 600 (+146 cases)
February VB - PD Jan 01 2009 to Dec 31 2009 ---------------------------------- 199 ----- 368 (+169 cases)

More statistics can be found here, including a breakdown of approvals by PD.

Spec,

I think it would more useful if you could break down the date based on Application Date or USCIS Received Date. Let's take an example to understand what I am saying.

In the date October VB cases increased from 125 to 134 (+9) from 2/14 to 2/19. However, it is important to figure if these were fresh cases filed in Feb or these were filed earlier but have just been updated in Trackitt.

This is where I think Application Filed Date can help. If these 9 new cases were filed in Jan but are just showing up now because people are updating the tracker then we can be certain that they are reflected in the I-485 receipts release by USCIS.

I think it will also be useful to see what %age of people file in the month their dates are current. So e.g. in the data above for Jan VB we see total 600 cases (up to 2/29) but only 310 up to Jan 31. Assuming the filing date is same as when people entered the data then it implies ~50% of people did not file in Jan (when they were current) but waited almost a month (and filed in Feb).

Based on the actual data only 53 applications of people who were current in Jan were filed in Feb and only 61 applications were received by USCIS in Feb for people who were current Jan. This implies that ~90% (and not 50%) of the people who were current in Jan filed their application in Jan and are thus reflected in the I-485 receipt data released by USCIS.

Finally, if we do that for multiple months we can with some certainty say what %age of people file in the month they are current, which would help us when I-485 receipts or I-485 Inventory is released.
03-01-2012, 01:44 PM
insane_yogi

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

I have updated the Prevailing Wage Determination Data Analysis with the Q1 FY2012 figures.

There seems to be a general trend to increasing EB2 applications. No surprise there!

Hi Spec,
Thanks for updating these numbers.. just want to understand how you differentiated between EB2 and EB3.. is that distribution based on highest education?
03-01-2012, 01:52 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by immi2910

Spec,

I think it would more useful if you could break down the date based on Application Date or USCIS Received Date. Let's take an example to understand what I am saying.

In the date October VB cases increased from 125 to 134 (+9) from 2/14 to 2/19. However, it is important to figure if these were fresh cases filed in Feb or these were filed earlier but have just been updated in Trackitt.

This is where I think Application Filed Date can help. If these 9 new cases were filed in Jan but are just showing up now because people are updating the tracker then we can be certain that they are reflected in the I-485 receipts release by USCIS.

I think it will also be useful to see what %age of people file in the month their dates are current. So e.g. in the data above for Jan VB we see total 600 cases (up to 2/29) but only 310 up to Jan 31. Assuming the filing date is same as when people entered the data then it implies ~50% of people did not file in Jan (when they were current) but waited almost a month (and filed in Feb).

Based on the actual data only 53 applications of people who were current in Jan were filed in Feb and only 61 applications were received by USCIS in Feb for people who were current Jan. This implies that ~90% (and not 50%) of the people who were current in Jan filed their application in Jan and are thus reflected in the I-485 receipt data released by USCIS.

Finally, if we do that for multiple months we can with some certainty say what %age of people file in the month they are current, which would help us when I-485 receipts or I-485 Inventory is released.

immi2910,

The additions are based on the Case Added to Tracker Field in Trackitt, so by definition they are new cases that did not exist before. That date will never change.

About 90% of people actually file in the month their PD became Current, based on the stats to date. I do keep those figures, but I don't think they are useful to publish.

USCIS Receipt Date

October VB

--------- Cases ---- % --
October --- 118 -- 88.06%
November --- 11 --- 8.21%
December ---- 1 --- 0.75%
January ----- 3 --- 2.24%
February ---- 1 --- 0.75%

November VB

November -- 408 -- 89.67%
December --- 42 --- 9.23%
January ----- 3 --- 0.66%
February ---- 2 --- 0.44%

December VB

December -- 475 -- 87.96%
January ---- 54 -- 10.00%
February --- 11 --- 2.04%

January VB

January --- 543 -- 90.35%
February --- 58 --- 9.65%
03-01-2012, 02:14 PM
srimurthy

Spec,

I was looking at the Bachelor's + 5 Years % increase over years from 19 to 22 to 24% in EB2 category. That seems to be around 2% increase year on years and Could this be any indicator towards the porting numbers from EB3 to EB2?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

I have updated the Prevailing Wage Determination Data Analysis with the Q1 FY2012 figures.

There seems to be a general trend to increasing EB2 applications. No surprise there!
03-01-2012, 03:11 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by CleanSock

Thank You veni001 :) In that case, as per the released PERM data of Q1 FY2012, aren't EB Mexico and Philippines cases really low or have they been approximately the same in every quarter of every year? If they are low only in this quarter, would that mean that there will be more spillover from them?

CleanSock,
The number of ROW-M-P PERM certifications (matter of fact all PERM certifications) per quarter are decreasing over the past year.

You can see FY2010-FY2011 data comparison in post #2553.

Below are PERM certifications for ROW-MP for last 5 quarters

FY2011 - Q1 - 8,023
FY2011 - Q2 - 7,222
FY2011 - Q3 - 5,355
FY2011 - Q4 - 4,542
FY2012 - Q1 - 3,805

I believe, due to low EB2ROW-MP demand CO is able to apply quarterly spillover.
03-01-2012, 05:06 PM
CleanSock

Thanks :)

Thanks for the clarification veni001. I now understand it better :)
03-01-2012, 06:21 PM
tatikonda

Gurus,

As I was going through the FY2012 Q1 PERM Data, Access Files.
Last column, CLASS_OF_ADMISSION, might be the field we can use to find probable porting cases. ( not 100 % though).
As I observed few of cases, where Porting cases are either blank or PAROLEE. it is not H1B.

Thank you
Tatikonda.
03-01-2012, 11:55 PM
imdeng

Very interesting Veni. The decline in ROW numbers are astounding especially when you consider that numbers for C are falling too and I is the only one holding steady and growing even. This shows that we may get significant fall-across spillover this year.

Quote:

Originally Posted by veni001

Below are PERM certifications for ROW-MP for last 5 quarters

FY2011 - Q1 - 8,023
FY2011 - Q2 - 7,222
FY2011 - Q3 - 5,355
FY2011 - Q4 - 4,542
FY2012 - Q1 - 3,805

I believe, due to low EB2ROW-MP demand CO is able to apply quarterly spillover.
03-02-2012, 09:53 AM
rasknorr

May be this has been posted already but does this data helps us in predicting any thing?

http://www.laborimmigration.com/wp-c...b.-15-2012.pdf
03-02-2012, 10:08 AM
rookie

Hi Everyone -
I need your advise on a current situation of my I-140 case. My PD is 7/2011 and got my PERM approved during Oct 2011 under EB-2 and filed 140 (regular-NSC) on Nov 2, 2011. Till today there has been no movement at all except for a soft LUD on Nov 8, 2011. As I can see that the normal processing time for 140 at NSC is 4 months and in my case, it has just crossed that timeline. What option would be a best move at this point?

- Follow up with attorney and open a SR.
- Upgrade to premium.
- Wait (as my PD is not going to be current atleast till the end of this FY). Will I be able to file 485 if my PD becomes current and 140 still pending?

Situations that are making me to worry are the I-140 approvals of my colleagues who filed 10-15 days (around Nov 15) later than me and we all have the same profile & experience (F1-H1). On the other side, looking at their approvals without RFE builds some confidence.

Please help!
03-02-2012, 10:35 AM
rookie

Thanks Kanmani
03-02-2012, 10:42 AM
vizcard

Quote:

Originally Posted by rookie

Hi Everyone -
I need your advise on a current situation of my I-140 case. My PD is 7/2011 and got my PERM approved during Oct 2011 under EB-2 and filed 140 (regular-NSC) on Nov 2, 2011. Till today there has been no movement at all except for a soft LUD on Nov 8, 2011. As I can see that the normal processing time for 140 at NSC is 4 months and in my case, it has just crossed that timeline. What option would be a best move at this point?

- Follow up with attorney and open a SR.
- Upgrade to premium.
- Wait (as my PD is not going to be current atleast till the end of this FY). Will I be able to file 485 if my PD becomes current and 140 still pending?

Situations that are making me to worry are the I-140 approvals of my colleagues who filed 10-15 days (around Nov 15) later than me and we all have the same profile & experience (F1-H1). On the other side, looking at their approvals without RFE builds some confidence.

Please help!

As Kanmani points out, you can wait for a week or so before any follow up. You CANNOT file a 485 without an approved 140. I can say with a good bit of confident (thanks to the math here), that you will be not current in this VB.
03-02-2012, 10:52 AM
kd2008

USCIS dashboard updated!

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1
03-02-2012, 11:00 AM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by kd2008

USCIS dashboard updated!

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1

At last!!

I've been checking since the 21st when it is normally updated.

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