EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

Tatikonda,
Send the employer an email as Usernamenot valid suggested requesting your W2 and citing the reason as filing for taxes; make sure you copy the highest ranking official you can get access to. Most of the times a written communication softens the stand or at the very least gets you documented evidence that either there was no response or (better) they denied you the same (which offcourse has legal implications for the company). If I were you I would try and keep it amicable the first time around and if you dont hear back for a few days send a reminder and mention redressal options.
On the side, you can call Paycheck customer service and request them to send you the information by mail or set up an online account (if they have that option) to access your information directly and print the same. With my previous employer we were able to access our information through an online account. If you receive an online stub you may be able to get a link from there to signup for access.
Thanks

:) Sure it feels that way!! But it aint that way !!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by usernameisnotvalid

Q, what part of "GC is greener!" don't you understand :-)

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in case if it helps in any calculation


SRC1290000xxx - received - September 29, 2011

SRC1290050xxx - card delivered - February 17, 2012

SRC1290070xxx - received - December 9, 2011

SRC1290100xxx - received - January 5, 2012

SRC1290160xxx - no status - mid feb

I have filed my I485 (AOS) case on Dec 1st, 2011 the case is still pending with USCIS. Along with AOS, we have filed for EAD and Advance Parole, which got approved and I have physical EAD/AP on my hand. And I have valid H1B petition (No H1B Stamp, current stamp expired on).

I have situation back at, I need to travel to India immediately this week end I am not willing to go for stamping of H1B. I would like to start using my EAD/AP.


Now, I have following questions:

1. Can I travel to INDIA and come back in 2 weeks without any port of entry issues by using my EAD/AP card?
3. If yes, what all the documentation that need to carry with me, which are required at POE on my return?
3. What if my I-485 gets approved while I am in India? On what status I should try to enter into USA on my return?
4. In the #3 case, do I need to visit US embassy in INDIA to get the immigration stamping?
5. If yes, what is the procedure?
6. Are there any other complexities involved this scenario, which I can’t think of?


Kindly make some time to reply in detail ASAP

Quote:

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Originally Posted by tatikonda

Hey My Ex-Employer is not giving my W2. What are my options ?
I worked with him until Sep 2012 and then changed employer with his permission but he is not giving W2.

Please advice.
Sorry, As I posted in wrong forum.

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IRS form 4506

http://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc159.html

Quote:

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Originally Posted by polapragada

I have filed my I485 (AOS) case on Dec 1st, 2011 the case is still pending with USCIS. Along with AOS, we have filed for EAD and Advance Parole, which got approved and I have physical EAD/AP on my hand. And I have valid H1B petition (No H1B Stamp, current stamp expired on).

I have situation back at, I need to travel to India immediately this week end I am not willing to go for stamping of H1B. I would like to start using my EAD/AP.


Now, I have following questions:

1. Can I travel to INDIA and come back in 2 weeks without any port of entry issues by using my EAD/AP card?
3. If yes, what all the documentation that need to carry with me, which are required at POE on my return?
3. What if my I-485 gets approved while I am in India? On what status I should try to enter into USA on my return?
4. In the #3 case, do I need to visit US embassy in INDIA to get the immigration stamping?
5. If yes, what is the procedure?
6. Are there any other complexities involved this scenario, which I can’t think of?


Kindly make some time to reply in detail ASAP

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1. yes
2. EAD/AP card + passport. You might want to carry your 797.
3. My lawyers said theres no issue there and u can enter with AP card
4, 5 - see #3
6. Only complexity I've heard is that they pull you aside for secondary checks at POE.

Replies added in below to your question

Quote:

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Originally Posted by polapragada

I have filed my I485 (AOS) case on Dec 1st, 2011 the case is still pending with USCIS. Along with AOS, we have filed for EAD and Advance Parole, which got approved and I have physical EAD/AP on my hand. And I have valid H1B petition (No H1B Stamp, current stamp expired on).

I have situation back at, I need to travel to India immediately this week end I am not willing to go for stamping of H1B. I would like to start using my EAD/AP.


Now, I have following questions:

1. Can I travel to INDIA and come back in 2 weeks without any port of entry issues by using my EAD/AP card?
Yes, with caveats: Your AOS should not be denied meanwhile. Else you would need a valid H1 stamp to enter on H1 status. People have also raised doubts for AOS being in RFE status and ability to re-enter on AP, but I personally feel it would work out.
3. If yes, what all the documentation that need to carry with me, which are required at POE on my return?
Passport, EAD/AP combo card, Filing receipts of 485. All other filing receipts, H1 approval notice etc, should be kept in the carry on purse or laptop bag etc, not checked in baggage, so that you can produce at short notice to officer if needed.
3. What if my I-485 gets approved while I am in India? On what status I should try to enter into USA on my return?
This one I am not sure, folks have mentioned that if you know you are approved, in addition to above documents, you can inform officer you are approved, or you can show him a print out of the case status page which shows approval for your receipt number. Some have suggested going to US consulate to get some stamp, I am not sure that is really needed or not. I personally don't think it is.
4. In the #3 case, do I need to visit US embassy in INDIA to get the immigration stamping?
Not sure, see above.
5. If yes, what is the procedure?
N/A
6. Are there any other complexities involved this scenario, which I can’t think of?
Keep things simple, please don't go if you can avoid going!


Kindly make some time to reply in detail ASAP

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by vizcard

1. yes
2. EAD/AP card + passport. You might want to carry your 797.
3. My lawyers said theres no issue there and u can enter with AP card
4, 5 - see #3
6. Only complexity I've heard is that they pull you aside for secondary checks at POE.

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Thanks for quick response....I can live with secondary check at POE

Nishant,
I think the W2 that you can get from the IRS website through form 4506 is for past years (where taxes have already been filed). If I undertand correctly Tatikonda needs the W2 to file the taxes in the first place for year 2011. If that is correct then his only options are either the employer or the payroll processor.
Thanks

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

IRS form 4506

http://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc159.html

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Thanks for this. Quick question - "follow-to-join" only applies when I-485 is approved correct? Assuming dates are current & I-485 is "pending", depandent's 485 can be filled ?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by manzoorraza

Nishant,
I think the W2 that you can get from the IRS website through form 4506 is for past years (where taxes have already been filed). If I undertand correctly Tatikonda needs the W2 to file the taxes in the first place for year 2011. If that is correct then his only options are either the employer or the payroll processor.
Thanks

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I see, yes the IRS is for past years, for taxes you already filed.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by waiting

Thanks for this. Quick question - "follow-to-join" only applies when I-485 is approved correct? Assuming dates are current & I-485 is "pending", depandent's 485 can be filled ?

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If 485 is not approved, then anyways eligible dependent can apply anytime if dates allow to do so. I think the main thing is you should be married before the 485 is approved.

Kanmani and Spec had good knowledge on this follow to join etc, lets see what they say.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by waiting

Thanks for this. Quick question - "follow-to-join" only applies when I-485 is approved correct? Assuming dates are current & I-485 is "pending", depandent's 485 can be filled ?

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Yes , dependent can file separately as long as primary's PD is current on the day on which USCIS receives the derivative's I-485. In this case the primary should be maintaining a valid non-immigrant status to allow the spouse to maintain dependent status between the two separate I-485 filings ( primary + dependent).

If the spouse has his/her own non-immigrant status , the primary need not worry abt his H1/L1 after I-485.

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Q, few pages back I had posted my analysis. I am reposting below:

So far my contention is that the 31.5K approvals may be as follows:

EB3: 6.5K (pre-adjudicated)
EB2IC: 6.5K (pre-adjudicated)
EB4: 2.5K
EB5: 3K (based on Dec. presentation by USCIS)

This leaves EB1+EB2(nonIC) = 31.5K - 6.5K -6.5K -2.5K - 3K = 13K. Is this number low? Some say yes, others say no.
Based on the above assumption:

This is my analysis for Q1 FY 2012

From I-485 Inventory of Oct 2011, EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5= 26.3K
Q1 FY 2012 Receipts = 35.5K (Some of these may be porting related filings, but lets assume them zero for now)
Lets us say EB2IC receipts =X
Therefore the receipts from rest of the categories = 35.5 -X
From I-485 Inventory of Jan 2012, EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5 = 29.9K
Visas used up by EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5 = 18.5K (based on the category break-down assumption above)

26.3K + (35.5K -X) - 29.9K = 18.5K
Solve for X, X = 13.4K

These are probably the receipts for EB2IC in Q1 FY 2012.

This would imply, EB2ROW I-485 is higher, IC applications are lower than 1600/month, which implies that SOFAD will be lower but since IC application are low the dates will still progress.

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Another calc approach:
Approvals in Q1 FY 2012 EB1+EB2(nonIC) = 13K estimated
Jan 2012 inventory:
EB1 = 15.5K
EB2(nonIC) = 13.5K

Jan to Sep addition: EB1: 2K/month x 9 months = 18K
Jan to Sep addition: EB2(nonIC): 2K/month x 9 months = 18K
(For EB2(nonIC): With the PERM approval slow down this may decrease, with an approval ramp up this may increase)

It is typical for USCIS to carry about 7K or 8K cases in the inventory for EB1 at all times. Same for EB2(nonIC). Let us say that in Oct 2012, USCIS has EB1 inventory of 7K and EB2(nonIC) inventory of 7K. This implies USCIS did a fantastic job of approving EB1 and EB2(nonIC) cases.

So how many did USCIS approve in FY 2012 for EB1+EB2(nonIC)?

13K + 29K + 36K - 14K = 64K

EB1 + EB2 + Spillover from EB4&EB5 = 84K

Therefore, EB2IC SOFAD = 20K

This may be the lowest amount.

If USCIS ends up carrying about the same 29K cases for EB1+EB2(nonIC) in its inventory by Oct 2012 as it is now, then

EB2IC SOFAD increases to 35K.

So it is a wide range and it utterly depends on USCIS processing speed and what it processes first.

I hope folks appreciate, why USCIS may feel the pressure in coming months to process enough cases.

If the EB2(nonIC) filings decrease due to a PERM slow down, then the SOFAD increases even more. This is unlikely, in my opinion.

Q, Spec, Teddy, what is your take?

kd ,
when the entire Eb3 category is retrogressed, approvals are made from pre-adjudicated cases, then why EB3 Q1 total is 6.5k instead of 10K? ( Sorry I am really confused , this is a layman question)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

kd ,
when the entire Eb3 category is retrogressed, approvals are made from pre-adjudicated cases, then why EB3 Q1 total is 6.5k instead of 10K? ( Sorry I am really confused , this is a layman question)

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I am only considering USCIS processing for my analysis.

Indeed, EB3 approvals for Q1 FY 2012 are taken to be 10K. Of this, I estimated about 3.5K are CP. 6.5K are AOS approvals from pre-adjudicated cases.

the 31k approvals in the document posted by Spec for Q1FY 2012 are from USCIS only.

Hi there folks, first timer here! I've originally posted this on trackitt, but got no responses. I wonder why! can anyone shed some light?

My PD is 22-JUN-2011, EB2IC. My I-140 got approved on 08-FEB-2012. I've noticed on the approval notice that my case was transferred to NVC. Our attorney did not specify CP during I-140 but somehow USCIS transferred my case to NVC. I've noticed that someone else on the forum also are in the same situation. I've read thru the advantages of doing CP vs AOS. I've no issues going to India if that's the faster route to get GC. I'm willing to take the risk. I have the following questions and would greatly appreciate it if someone can answer them -

1. Am I correct in saying that USCIS and NVC will pick the visa numbers from the same pool? If EB2IC has 2800 visa numbers available in a fiscal year, what percentage of it is allocated to NVC vs USCIS? Who gets the upper hand?
2. Some of the folks have received NVC fee notices with PD's in March/June 2011. Assuming I'll get a notice as well and appear for an interview in July 2012 in India, and if there are no denials, but if the dates retrogressed in August 2012, will that affect me at all? If the interview is successful, will I get the GC immediately after returning to US? I understand I'll get a temporary GC stamp on the passport (I-551), which is as good as GC and valid for one year. If my assumptions are true, isn't it easier to do CP than AOS? Why do folks opt for AOS then?
3. I still have my H1B valid for 2 more years. If the GC gets denied for whatever reason during CP, can I come back to US on H1B? And If I do, do I need to start the GC process all over again from PERM?

Thank you for your time!

KD, 2K per month as average rate between EB1 and EB2ROW is fine.
However EB1 continues to come in at approx 3K per month. Whereas EB2ROW now-a-days is about 1.5K. So overall 52K for together would be a realistic number for full year between the two.

Year 2011 ended with higher than usual EB1 inventory at 15K. So that is a risk. Assuming 5K will be cleared on top of 2012 EB1 demand, the total between EB1 and EB2ROW will be 57K. So together they should yield SOFAD of about 23K. Then add EB4 and EB5 - which should come in at 6-7K. We are talking about 30K SOFAD in 2012.

Then reduce it by 3K EB3 porting. Thats about 27K. 27K is about 11 months inventory at normal EB2IC density of 2.5K per month. But if we think EB2IC is about 2K or 1.6K then .... do the math and predict where you think 27K will take EB2IC !!!

My take is that the combined number for EB2IC has to be somewhere between 2-2.5K giving a total movement of 11-14 months (its fun when numbers tie up!) 11-14 months on top of last years movement means - Mar-Jun 2008 for EB2IC. That's my comfort zone of course. I know others would prefers Q2 or even Q3 of 2008.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Another calc approach:
Approvals in Q1 FY 2012 EB1+EB2(nonIC) = 13K estimated
Jan 2012 inventory:
EB1 = 15.5K
EB2(nonIC) = 13.5K

Jan to Sep addition: EB1: 2K/month x 9 months = 18K
Jan to Sep addition: EB2(nonIC): 2K/month x 9 months = 18K
(For EB2(nonIC): With the PERM approval slow down this may decrease, with an approval ramp up this may increase)

It is typical for USCIS to carry about 7K or 8K cases in the inventory for EB1 at all times. Same for EB2(nonIC). Let us say that in Oct 2012, USCIS has EB1 inventory of 7K and EB2(nonIC) inventory of 7K. This implies USCIS did a fantastic job of approving EB1 and EB2(nonIC) cases.

So how many did USCIS approve in FY 2012 for EB1+EB2(nonIC)?

13K + 29K + 36K - 14K = 64K

EB1 + EB2 + Spillover from EB4&EB5 = 84K

Therefore, EB2IC SOFAD = 20K

This may be the lowest amount.

If USCIS ends up carrying about the same 29K cases for EB1+EB2(nonIC) in its inventory by Oct 2012 as it is now, then

EB2IC SOFAD increases to 35K.

So it is a wide range and it utterly depends on USCIS processing speed and what it processes first.

I hope folks appreciate, why USCIS may feel the pressure in coming months to process enough cases.

If the EB2(nonIC) filings decrease due to a PERM slow down, then the SOFAD increases even more. This is unlikely, in my opinion.

Q, Spec, Teddy, what is your take?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

KD, 2K per month as average rate between EB1 and EB2ROW is fine.
However EB1 continues to come in at approx 3K per month. Whereas EB2ROW now-a-days is about 1.5K. So overall 52K for together would be a realistic number for full year between the two.

Year 2011 ended with higher than usual EB1 inventory at 15K. So that is a risk. Assuming 5K will be cleared on top of 2012 EB1 demand, the total between EB1 and EB2ROW will be 57K. So together they should yield SOFAD of about 23K. Then add EB4 and EB5 - which should come in at 6-7K. We are talking about 30K SOFAD in 2012.

Then reduce it by 3K EB3 porting. Thats about 27K. 27K is about 11 months inventory at normal EB2IC density of 2.5K per month. But if we think EB2IC is about 2K or 1.6K then .... do the math and predict where you think 27K will take EB2IC !!!

My take is that the combined number for EB2IC has to be somewhere between 2-2.5K giving a total movement of 11-14 months (its fun when numbers tie up!) 11-14 months on top of last years movement means - Mar-Jun 2008 for EB2IC. That's my comfort zone of course. I know others would prefers Q2 or even Q3 of 2008.

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Q, thank you for your feedback. Yes, I am also thinking that the dates will end up somewhere around middle of 2008.

1. Am I correct in saying that USCIS and NVC will pick the visa numbers from the same pool? If EB2IC has 2800 visa numbers available in a fiscal year, what percentage of it is allocated to NVC vs USCIS? Who gets the upper hand?


Yes, You are correct. Uscis and Consular posts request Visa numbers from the same department of State . The percentage is approximately 85: 15 in the overall 140k. Usually Uscis requests Visa number after adjudication of the application But Consular posts request visa numbers before adjudication. When the interview is not successful , the consular would return the visa number to DoS.


2. Some of the folks have received NVC fee notices with PD's in March/June 2011. Assuming I'll get a notice as well and appear for an interview in July 2012 in India, and if there are no denials, but if the dates retrogressed in August 2012, will that affect me at all? If the interview is successful, will I get the GC immediately after returning to US? I understand I'll get a temporary GC stamp on the passport (I-551), which is as good as GC and valid for one year. If my assumptions are true, isn't it easier to do CP than AOS? Why do folks opt for AOS then?

We are unfamiliar with Consular processing procedures and no real time experiences are posted in the internet. I personally know very little to answer this question.

THE OPERATION OF THE IMMIGRANT NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM link http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immi...ation%20of.pdf

The above document says Visa numbers are allocated strictly by Priority Dates. Each month DoS receives request for Visa numbers from USCIS & Consular posts. After thorough examination of the requests, they allot Visa numbers going by PD seniority only. So there should be comparatively many applicants before you to get a visa number assigned .

For example , if DOS receives a request for visa numbers (a) June 2009 PD consular processing application (b) March 2008 PD from USCIS , then my assumption is uscis picks the visa number immediately but June 2009 pd should wait for its turn . If a bulk of applications mount for Visa number both from USCIS and consulates, DOS would retrogress the dates.

What I personally feel is when a 2008 pd applicant is still waiting to adjust his status , there is zero chance for a 2011 pd applicant to get visa number assigned very soon eventhough he has chosen the relatively easier route.

3. I still have my H1B valid for 2 more years. If the GC gets denied for whatever reason during CP, can I come back to US on H1B? And If I do, do I need to start the GC process all over again from PERM?

This part is still not clear, Attorney Ron says when I-485 is denied in a situation the applicant has passed 6 years , then the H1b is invalid.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by yzzozzy

Hi there folks, first timer here! I've originally posted this on trackitt, but got no responses. I wonder why! can anyone shed some light?

My PD is 22-JUN-2011, EB2IC. My I-140 got approved on 08-FEB-2012. I've noticed on the approval notice that my case was transferred to NVC. Our attorney did not specify CP during I-140 but somehow USCIS transferred my case to NVC. I've noticed that someone else on the forum also are in the same situation. I've read thru the advantages of doing CP vs AOS. I've no issues going to India if that's the faster route to get GC. I'm willing to take the risk. I have the following questions and would greatly appreciate it if someone can answer them -

1. Am I correct in saying that USCIS and NVC will pick the visa numbers from the same pool? If EB2IC has 2800 visa numbers available in a fiscal year, what percentage of it is allocated to NVC vs USCIS? Who gets the upper hand?
2. Some of the folks have received NVC fee notices with PD's in March/June 2011. Assuming I'll get a notice as well and appear for an interview in July 2012 in India, and if there are no denials, but if the dates retrogressed in August 2012, will that affect me at all? If the interview is successful, will I get the GC immediately after returning to US? I understand I'll get a temporary GC stamp on the passport (I-551), which is as good as GC and valid for one year. If my assumptions are true, isn't it easier to do CP than AOS? Why do folks opt for AOS then?
3. I still have my H1B valid for 2 more years. If the GC gets denied for whatever reason during CP, can I come back to US on H1B? And If I do, do I need to start the GC process all over again from PERM?

Thank you for your time!

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1. No one gets an upper hand. They all request visas as and when they need it. If there is too much demand from CP and AOS then dates will retrogress to a point that only available visas are requested. However, CP processing starts even before your dates are current whereas AOS only starts once your dates are current. CP applications will be processed up to scheduling of visa interview before the dates are current. As soon as dates become current CP applicants will be scheduled for an interview and Visa Numbers will be reserved at this point (so even if dates retrogress you will still go for interview and get GC).

2. Keep in mind it is not a given that everyone (myself included) will get interviews anytime soon. As I mentioned above if you have your interview scheduled then you will get an immigrant visa irrespective of whether the dates retrogressed or not. Once you enter US you will get your GC by mail.

3. Yes you can come back on H1. Yes, you should be able to start GC process all over again.

Finally, I would like to caution you that June 2011 may not be current anytime soon (my PD is June 2011 as well). Historically, dates have become current within an year of receiving NVC fee bill but it may not hold going forward. Moreover, if more than a year passes since you applied through CP then you will have to start the process all over again (you will not have to pay the fees again).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

3. I still have my H1B valid for 2 more years. If the GC gets denied for whatever reason during CP, can I come back to US on H1B? And If I do, do I need to start the GC process all over again from PERM?

This part is still not clear, Attorney Ron says when I-485 is denied in a situation the applicant has passed 6 years , then the H1b is invalid.

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I think the OP has 2 years left on H1B so he should be fine.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Q, thank you for your feedback. Yes, I am also thinking that the dates will end up somewhere around middle of 2008.

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I agree the date will settle around July-August 2008 for FY 2012. However, the real question is when will they start moving again. I think CO will have to wait until all the applications up to high watermark established this time are cleared before moving the dates. So, if and when the dates retrogress, I think it will take at least a year to get to the high watermark i.e. in FY 2013 there will be no movement beyond the high watermark established in this cycle.

immi2910 & Kanmani, thank you both very much for your inputs. I'll just wait for the April bulletin for now.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by immi2910

I agree the date will settle around July-August 2008 for FY 2012. However, the real question is when will they start moving again. I think CO will have to wait until all the applications up to high watermark established this time are cleared before moving the dates. So, if and when the dates retrogress, I think it will take at least a year to get to the high watermark i.e. in FY 2013 there will be no movement beyond the high watermark established in this cycle.

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This is true. We'll have potentially a new set of PWMBs too. All the more reason to lobby for HR3012.

Long time follower...first time poster.
I am not inclined to believe that there will be another set of huge PWMBs.
I believe, they do have visibility to numbers/projections better than we assume..may be a desi is wirting some code for themwhich gives those numbers :) as we do here.

As far as HR 3012..lets see two scenerios..
1. Dates retrogress..lots of PWMBs. Then that makes sense for lobbying for HR 3012.
2. Dates are current. The it is still easier to lobby as the opposition will be minimum.

Some one on Trackitt with a PD September 2008 got Greened.

can you post the details

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nostwal

Some one on Trackitt with a PD September 2008 got Greened.

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http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

Looke for Hope2009 user

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nostwal

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

Looke for Hope2009 user

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Look here: http://www.trackitt.com/member/hope2009

Guys -

Now its crystal clear , there is no such thing called procedure , its all lottery.

I have never been lucky in lottery so I know I would be last in the queue :).

I think all these number crunch calculations are of no use when we are not sure the way USCIS is going to process cases do you guys agree ???.

NSC is fast then TSC becomes fast , what the heck is this all about rediculous.

FIFO I think that is never followed , RD and PD has no values. I think the best way to discuss on our forums is to look whats currently going on , there is no trend concept.

My 2 cents .... EB2I will go current , every one will be on EAD for next few years- its a minature FIASCO ....those who go green are just a few lucky who should play lottery as there stars are shining , yep believe me go play lottery :)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kolugc

He got his EAD/Approved on 27th Feb, I think he was trying to update it and would have updated the 485 approval field by mistake. I did ask him that question, waiting for his response. But if its true, I will be very happy too, bcs mine is June 2008 and I can also expect.

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EAD approval date is 22 Feb. He received EAD on 27th. And he got CPO email on 27th as well.

Very interesting. Almost 2 months to get EAD and a real quick turnaround on the GC as well. NSC staying true to form.

It is kind of ridiculous that while 30% of Jan EB2I NSC filers are yet to get FP Appointment Letter, 65% of the same filers are yet to get EAD/AP, and one case flies through the radar and gets greened. Although overall it is a good sign that they are now starting on Jan cases - I just wish they would make the FP/EAD/AP process quick as well.

There is of course an element of luck in who picks up your case and how quick/through that person is - but I think it is still within the usual variance of the process and it is not all lottery. There will always be cases that will be in the long tail end of the normal curve (both sides unfortunately), however, as long as bulk of the decisions fall in the middle - the process is working fine.

Lets not get ahead of ourselves here. May be his EAD got approved that day and by mistake he updated the 485 status. There have to be more approvals to really believe this thing.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Desperate8

Guys -

Now its crystal clear , there is no such thing called procedure , its all lottery.

I have never been lucky in lottery so I know I would be last in the queue :).

I think all these number crunch calculations are of no use when we are not sure the way USCIS is going to process cases do you guys agree ???.

NSC is fast then TSC becomes fast , what the heck is this all about rediculous.

FIFO I think that is never followed , RD and PD has no values. I think the best way to discuss on our forums is to look whats currently going on , there is no trend concept.

My 2 cents .... EB2I will go current , every one will be on EAD for next few years- its a minature FIASCO ....those who go green are just a few lucky who should play lottery as there stars are shining , yep believe me go play lottery :)

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If this is true then July-Aug 2008 stall (after retro) guesstimate is wrong?

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Look here: http://www.trackitt.com/member/hope2009

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by usernameisnotvalid

If this is true then July-Aug 2008 stall (after retro) guesstimate is wrong?

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No. Approvals are not by PD as you can see. As long as dates do not retrogress, approvals can come from any of the cases that have been filed. Q and I were talking about where will the dates be once they decide to retrogress. That is a different thing.

KD - what you say is true. As long as a person, he/she can be greened.

The issue is where the visa comes from. Technically all spillover should be allocated by PD. this is the "rule". So is this individual getting a SO visa or the regular quota? It's curious either way - for completely different reasons.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by tiger_of_web

Lets not get ahead of ourselves here. May be his EAD got approved that day and by mistake he updated the 485 status. There have to be more approvals to really believe this thing.

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I don't think it is a mistake. This is what he says:

The magic happened to me last night.

I am greened!!!!!!!!!

Still can not believe it. Waiting for the physical card to arrive before I start jumping.

Got the CPO mail at 6:00 P.M. yesterday
Got the decision mail this morning

Dependent is still pending.

Based on his profile, I see it's one of the low hanging fruits.

1. MS in USA? Yes.
2. Nature of your company(Consulting/Non-IT/fortune 500) - Small Company Non IT
3. Ever changed employers/jobs on H-1B? No
4. How many years in USA and on H-1B? 6th year
5. How many years with your current H-1B employer? 6th year
6. Are there any complexities ever in your case? 221G in March 2011 at visa interview
(Like 221g/porting/SOI/more than one Perm/Out of status/any charges/court records etc..)
7. Have you submitted Late Reg BC and affidavits or just late reg BC? Submitted birth certificate registered 4 weeks after birth along with one affidavit from parents as parents last name was not abbreviated in birth certificate.
8. what about flu shots? Yes

I don't think this will draw any conclusion on how the retrogression is going to be. If anyone in second hald of 2008 gets greened before retrogression they are lucky, as I would think the dates will retrogress around June 2008.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by vizcard

KD - what you say is true. As long as a person, he/she can be greened.

The issue is where the visa comes from. Technically all spillover should be allocated by PD. this is the "rule". So is this individual getting a SO visa or the regular quota? It's curious either way - for completely different reasons.

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But the approvals are not "spillover" in the eyes of Mr. CO. When the demand is less than the available quarterly quota, visas are allocated without regards to the country quotas. We saw this happening in Q1 and are seeing this happen in Q2. When USCIS starts asking for more visas - that is their processing is faster than the quarterly quota, Mr. CO will retrogress and then start using the "spillover" concept.

Inventory is totally different from demand. USCIS has to process the inventory to turn it into demand. That is why I have been saying pressure is on USCIS to process enough cases.

Because there were not enough cases in the inventory at the start of the year, Mr. CO moved dates to generate it. Now USCIS has to process it. It is processing it somewhat orderly fashion but not necessarily in FIFO manner as we can see from the approvals.

This kind of inline processing should have happened all along but USCIS was never good at it and its processing times fluctuated wildly. Thankfully it is happening now. My wild guess is: Mr. CO made dramatic movements in Jan and Feb. For March he replenished was was used up aka Jan approvals and hence we saw a 4 month movement for March. May be he will replenish again in April what was used in Feb. If he is able to do this consistently, there may not be any need for retrogression and we will have a great buffer of inventory always. But this is wishful thinking and very ideal scenario. USCIS always pours water over our dreams.