EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Friends just did a simple query on Trackitt for EB2 ROW + Primary + Approved
Oct 2010 - Feb 2011 - 184
Oct 2011 - Feb 2012 - 170
This means ROW has almost caught up considering we still have days in Feb, ROW was lagging back big time initially the exact same thing had happened last year.
Now if CO's statement of flat utilization of 9% per month is indeed true then in 5 months we have already seen 18K SOFAD at this rate we should see SOFAD in excess of 35K. For this to be true it appears that there is actually a larger sample of people on Trackitt now than in the past. If the pace of approvals is that high then reaching 01-JAN-2009 by Sep 2012 is a possibility. 18K in 5 months can easily be extrapolated to 36K in 12 months. I don’t believe that demand destruction could really be worse than a corresponding OR of 0.75 which would make it 1650 a month EB2 I/C this is my personal belief however I respect everyone’s opinion.
As of now even Dec cases are being approved quite consistently so surely even in the worst case scenario everyone till 15th Mar 2008 should get approved. I think that the approval volumes will be high in Q3 as well but will subside in Q4 where the allocation is less. Next VB will be very interesting to see the direction. Most important thing is how sound is the basis for the current approvals assuming its in the 9% per month boundary.
Here is how I came up with the 18K figure. Pre Oct Average of Inventory and Demand data is 8.5K + 14K(Does not have CP) = 12K. There have been atleast 6K I/C approvals since then.

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Teddy,

I am in agreement with the number of 1600-1800/PM. Let's not worry about individual OR assumptions for now. So you have same number for PD2009 too?

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

SPHX - based on USCIS data, I calculated EB2IC in oct-nov-dec to be at approx 2K per month of 2007 - pls see my previous post. For that 2K to be less means EB1 and EB2ROW will have to be more ie more than 7K i.e. more than last year's rate per month. Regardless of state of economy EB2IC / EB2ROW ratio should remain constant and as such I think it is highly unlikley that EB2ROW will be more and EB2IC will be less at the same time (compared to the prior yer values).

However I do concede the point that DD could be upto 25%. That's possible. But asI said thats not high enough to cause the date movements which IMHO is completely policy driven (again!).

As per CM's prediction - I generally do not follow his blog. However I do read it sometimes whenver somebody puts a line or two recommending that we read something there. I have good regard for him/her. However on EB2IC reaching 2008Q4 during USCIS Fiscal 2012 I have to strongly disagree. I am 100% confident that's not going to happen.

Sorry ... don't mean to ruin somebody's hopes. But neither I want to give false hopes to people.

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Ok- I am not sure if I have completely understood your post but I guess bottom line is that you are expecting the dates to be around 2008Q1 by end of FY2012.

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Originally Posted by immi2910

My PD is June 2011 and I have received Fee Notice from NVC. Just this morning I had replied to someone with Oct 2010 saying I do not expect it anytime soon ;)

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Wow!! That's wonderful news indeed. So does it mean that the PD will reach June 2011 in the near future?

Sorry to post something off topic but I really found this one interesting. Please remove it later or move it to appropriate thread.

The article basically mentions that a correlation exists between increasing H1B denials at US Consular Posts in India and direct pressure of Senator Grassley on Department of State for doing it.

http://imminfo.com/News/Newsletter/2...-in-india.html

Gurus will reply you better. What I can contribute is many ppl from my co go to Canada (Calgary better) for extension. I went for conversion from L1B to H1B.

sport
My premise is based on following facts:
1. There were 40K EB1 EB2 left at the end of 2011 Sep.
2. In Q1 2012 of USCIS year only 36K were approved. So theoretically all intake that came in Q1 2012 is on top of earlier inventory not including EB3.
3. The incoming rate is ~2K for EB2IC.
4. Rate of everything else is same as last year.
5. So this year we will see same SOFAD + any reduction in EB2IC (i.e. 500 per month)
6. The reduction is approx 6K .... so ~3 months of supply.
7. So the max movement in 2012 year should be = same as last year's movement + 3 months.
8 Last year the sustainable movement was 11 months. This year it could be max 14 months i.e. August 2008.
9. Now consider this that EB1 backlog in 2011 grew from 7.5K to 15K!! For a category that is current this is not a sustainable situation to have that high backlog. So we should see more approvals there negating the 3 month advantage in EB2IC reduction in demand.
10. That takes us back to March 2008.

Also this doesn't take into account any improvement in EB1 or EB2ROW if economy improves.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Q, I have 3 points:

a) It is only February and we are already seeing the earlier half of December filers getting out of the way. I think December 2011 filers will mostly be dealt with shortly and they might even start with January filers, which will easily take them beyond Q1/2008.

b) It is true that they may "end" at Q1/2008 if retrogression is severe, but there is a fundamental difference. A lot of people beyond that retrogressed date would be approved (very likely scenario) resulting in demand density substantially lower than what is assumed in calculations thus speeding the forward moment when the worst of retrogression is over. I believe from trackitt, we have seen Jan 2008 getting a GC so far. Many December 2007 filers are getting greened consistently.

c) I am still not seeing any signs of retrogression/stall. By all accounts, VB will again move forward in April (although I reserve judgment until it happens), which will be the 7th consecutive month of forward movement! It is very very unlikely that a forward movement will continue if the danger of severe retrogression looms and Q1/2008 is very severe considering how far the envelope has been pushed already.

In effect, my theory is that of a smooth transition. There is demand, but it is slow in showing up mainly due to RFEs, and inability of people to file right away (stuck in H1B limbo, unfriendly employers surprised at the sudden movement, many people not being married etc). This demand will "eventually" show up, but by that time, the bulk of 2008 and 2009 people with 'clean cases" would already be cleared. So the rate of forward progression will stall/stop, however retrogression won't be bad (in how much the envelop is pushed back or the length it stays there). When the dust settles, 2011 filers will start getting greened only in 2014 and EB2-IC will not be current any time soon - however the wait time will go down to 3 years instead of 5 assuming everything else stays the same.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

sport
My premise is based on following facts:
1. There were 40K EB1 EB2 left at the end of 2011 Sep.
2. In Q1 2012 of USCIS year only 36K were approved. So theoretically all intake that came in Q1 2012 is on top of earlier inventory not including EB3.
3. The incoming rate is ~2K for EB2IC.
4. Rate of everything else is same as last year.
5. So this year we will see same SOFAD + any reduction in EB2IC (i.e. 500 per month)
6. The reduction is approx 6K .... so ~3 months of supply.
7. So the max movement in 2012 year should be = same as last year's movement + 3 months.
8 Last year the sustainable movement was 11 months. This year it could be max 14 months i.e. August 2008.
9. Now consider this that EB1 backlog in 2011 grew from 7.5K to 15K!! For a category that is current this is not a sustainable situation to have that high backlog. So we should see more approvals there negating the 3 month advantage in EB2IC reduction in demand.
10. That takes us back to March 2008.

Also this doesn't take into account any improvement in EB1 or EB2ROW if economy improves.

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IMO, above scenario might play out if dates retrogress prior to Mar 2008 (as soon as by next bulletin). If they don't then there is chance that we will see some approvals from Jan VB filers. And that changes whole game. In that case technically dates can still be at Mar 2008 by end of FY 2012 by not in true sense.

Now whether dates will retrogress and to what point is big question. If CO is going by the numbers what we saw in latest inventory( which is obviously much lower than true demand) then chances of retrogression are much less.

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Originally Posted by iamdeb

Wow!! That's wonderful news indeed. So does it mean that the PD will reach June 2011 in the near future?

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I hope the Gurus or the experts out here will shed some more light on this NVC thing. I am planning to goto India, but I can wait if my PD May 2011 is going to be current in the near future.That's why I want to know how significant is the news that June 2011 PD person is receiving NVC notice.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

sport
My premise is based on following facts:
1. There were 40K EB1 EB2 left at the end of 2011 Sep.
2. In Q1 2012 of USCIS year only 36K were approved. So theoretically all intake that came in Q1 2012 is on top of earlier inventory not including EB3.
3. The incoming rate is ~2K for EB2IC.
4. Rate of everything else is same as last year.
5. So this year we will see same SOFAD + any reduction in EB2IC (i.e. 500 per month)
6. The reduction is approx 6K .... so ~3 months of supply.
7. So the max movement in 2012 year should be = same as last year's movement + 3 months.
8 Last year the sustainable movement was 11 months. This year it could be max 14 months i.e. August 2008.
9. Now consider this that EB1 backlog in 2011 grew from 7.5K to 15K!! For a category that is current this is not a sustainable situation to have that high backlog. So we should see more approvals there negating the 3 month advantage in EB2IC reduction in demand.
10. That takes us back to March 2008.

Also this doesn't take into account any improvement in EB1 or EB2ROW if economy improves.

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Q I completely agree with your analysis and I would agree more if the dates had already retrogressed. Things would play out as you say. But we haven't yet seen retrogression and we are seeing quarterly spillover. That changes the whole game.

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Q I completely agree with your analysis and I would agree more if the dates had already retrogressed. Things would play out as you say. But we haven't yet seen retrogression and we are seeing quarterly spillover. That changes the whole game.

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KD - technically the dates shouldn't have progressed at all. So the movement itself is artificial. So retrogression also wouldn't be quite meaningful to predict anything. I think if I were to be wrong then somebody needs to look at Jan 485 inventory data and compare that with Oct 2011 485 data and then use the 485 approval data USCIS published. That combined information may yield something that might go against all of my theory :) As of now I haven't done that and only used 485 Oct 2011 inventory, and latest USCIS approval data. So yes i could very well be wrong. And will be glad if I am wrong.

p.s. - And hey disagreements are a good thing. That's how we learn new things. So please disagree and point out flaws ;)

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Originally Posted by iamdeb

I hope the Gurus or the experts out here will shed some more light on this NVC thing. I am planning to goto India, but I can wait if my PD May 2011 is going to be current in the near future.That's why I want to know how significant is the news that June 2011 PD person is receiving NVC notice.

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It means June 2011 will be current in the next 12 months. My guess..and purely a guess...is that the movement will happen in Q1 FY 2013. Till then I expect the dates will stall or retrogress.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

KD - technically the dates shouldn't have progressed at all. So the movement itself is artificial. So retrogression also wouldn't be quite meaningful to predict anything. I think if I were to be wrong then somebody needs to look at Jan 485 inventory data and compare that with Oct 2011 485 data and then use the 485 approval data USCIS published. That combined information may yield something that might go against all of my theory :) As of now I haven't done that and only used 485 Oct 2011 inventory, and latest USCIS approval data. So yes i could very well be wrong. And will be glad if I am wrong.

p.s. - And hey disagreements are a good thing. That's how we learn new things. So please disagree and point out flaws ;)

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Q, few pages back I had posted my analysis. I am reposting below:

So far my contention is that the 31.5K approvals may be as follows:

EB3: 6.5K (pre-adjudicated)
EB2IC: 6.5K (pre-adjudicated)
EB4: 2.5K
EB5: 3K (based on Dec. presentation by USCIS)

This leaves EB1+EB2(nonIC) = 31.5K - 6.5K -6.5K -2.5K - 3K = 13K. Is this number low? Some say yes, others say no.
Based on the above assumption:

This is my analysis for Q1 FY 2012

From I-485 Inventory of Oct 2011, EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5= 26.3K
Q1 FY 2012 Receipts = 35.5K (Some of these may be porting related filings, but lets assume them zero for now)
Lets us say EB2IC receipts =X
Therefore the receipts from rest of the categories = 35.5 -X
From I-485 Inventory of Jan 2012, EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5 = 29.9K
Visas used up by EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5 = 18.5K (based on the category break-down assumption above)

26.3K + (35.5K -X) - 29.9K = 18.5K
Solve for X, X = 13.4K

These are probably the receipts for EB2IC in Q1 FY 2012.

This would imply, EB2ROW I-485 is higher, IC applications are lower than 1600/month, which implies that SOFAD will be lower but since IC application are low the dates will still progress.

Seeing so much analysis....after long :) very nice....based on this new data, i see that most of you guys think there wont be any moment or it may retrogress...but in that case why are they sending NVC reciepts.....my assumption is ,if CO thinks there is chance of those dates getting current they would send the reciepts.... i am assuming they wont be sending reciepts if they think the dates would be current for one or two years....am i wrong here?

one more thing...they are not sending reciepts to just 2010 folks even mid 2011 people(june) or getting reciepts...

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Spec, I have a question .

In my understanding, if anyone changes the status from H4 to H1, asper the Last-Action Rule , he immediately falls under H1 even if he hasn't joined the employer and falls out of status between the period H1 start date to actual join date .

Is Last-Action Rule not applicable to L1 to H1?

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That is applicable only if he has asked COS - which is not the case here. So he must have got approval notice without new I94 attached.

Sun, thanks. Can you please explain more in this context, H4->H1 Vs L1->H1?

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Sun, thanks. Can you please explain more in this context, H4->H1 Vs L1->H1?

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AFAIK, we can ask apply with or without COS in both H4->H1 and L1->H1 cases. I am pretty sure about this but let's see what others have to say. So last action rule will be applicable only when approval comes with new I94 (indicating changed status)attached.

KD .... I think your entire logic is very good. I think conclusion is also right. So either EB2IC is low and SOFAD is low. Or EB2IC is normal and SOFAD is normal. In either case we will be looking at simliar to prior year movement forward which is about 11 months. Right? (Of course not including any downside because of improving economy or reduction of EB1 inventory resulting in even lower SOFAD). Makes sense?

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Q, few pages back I had posted my analysis. I am reposting below:

So far my contention is that the 31.5K approvals may be as follows:

EB3: 6.5K (pre-adjudicated)
EB2IC: 6.5K (pre-adjudicated)
EB4: 2.5K
EB5: 3K (based on Dec. presentation by USCIS)

This leaves EB1+EB2(nonIC) = 31.5K - 6.5K -6.5K -2.5K - 3K = 13K. Is this number low? Some say yes, others say no.
Based on the above assumption:

This is my analysis for Q1 FY 2012

From I-485 Inventory of Oct 2011, EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5= 26.3K
Q1 FY 2012 Receipts = 35.5K (Some of these may be porting related filings, but lets assume them zero for now)
Lets us say EB2IC receipts =X
Therefore the receipts from rest of the categories = 35.5 -X
From I-485 Inventory of Jan 2012, EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5 = 29.9K
Visas used up by EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5 = 18.5K (based on the category break-down assumption above)

26.3K + (35.5K -X) - 29.9K = 18.5K
Solve for X, X = 13.4K

These are probably the receipts for EB2IC in Q1 FY 2012.

This would imply, EB2ROW I-485 is higher, IC applications are lower than 1600/month, which implies that SOFAD will be lower but since IC application are low the dates will still progress.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

KD .... I think your entire logic is very good. I think conclusion is also right. So either EB2IC is low and SOFAD is low. Or EB2IC is normal and SOFAD is normal. In either case we will be looking at simliar to prior year movement forward which is about 11 months. Right? (Of course not including any downside because of improving economy or reduction of EB1 inventory resulting in even lower SOFAD). Makes sense?

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Yes, I am agreeing with a reservation :)

I really can't seem to understand what the net effect will be of the massive date movement, quarterly/monthly spillover, NVC notices sent up to PDs of June 2011, slow progress in processing EB1 cases, slow down in PERM approvals.

We like to think government as a single focused entity with a single policy and objective. But in reality it is a combination of multiple departments and people and pressure groups trying to achieve different objectives. So the forward mvement could be opportunistic behavior from people who do want to push forward EB immigration. I think we can only go by hard facts and say regardless of where dates move, the fundamental demand supply will dictate where the dates will eventually settle atthe end of 2012.

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Yes, I am agreeing with a reservation :)

I really can't seem to understand what the net effect will be of the massive date movement, quarterly/monthly spillover, NVC notices sent up to PDs of June 2011, slow progress in processing EB1 cases, slow down in PERM approvals.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

We like to think government as a single focused entity with a single policy and objective. But in reality it is a combination of multiple departments and people and pressure groups trying to achieve different objectives. So the forward mvement could be opportunistic behavior from people who do want to push forward EB immigration. I think we can only go by hard facts and say regardless of where dates move, the fundamental demand supply will dictate where the dates will eventually settle atthe end of 2012.

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Q and kd, one observation I had. Utilizing visas to the fullest extent, and following the SO priority of EB5->EB1->EB2->EB3 and fall across within from ROW to IC, etc. seems to be a much more hardline goals of CO than I imagined earlier. He really does not want to take any chances. He would rather go visas go to EB2IC for applicants belonging to much later date via CP, rather than just simply opening flood gates on the ton of pre-adjudicated EB3IC inventory and EB3ROW, and I have a feeling that if ever that situation does come that EB3 gets the SO because EB2 could not be processed fast enough by USCIS, or not enough applications were available, or CP could not help in consuming completely, he will indeed make EB2 current, and only then will flow over visas to EB3.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

Q and kd, one observation I had. Utilizing visas to the fullest extent, and following the SO priority of EB5->EB1->EB2->EB3 and fall across within from ROW to IC, etc. seems to be a much more hardline goals of CO than I imagined earlier. He really does not want to take any chances. He would rather go visas go to EB2IC for applicants belonging to much later date via CP, rather than just simply opening flood gates on the ton of pre-adjudicated EB3IC inventory and EB3ROW, and I have a feeling that if ever that situation does come that EB3 gets the SO because EB2 could not be processed fast enough by USCIS, or not enough applications were available, or CP could not help in consuming completely, he will indeed make EB2 current, and only then will flow over visas to EB3.

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Isn't your last sentence the current policy?

Got EAD/AP Approved, thanks for all your support

Service Center : Texas
PD : 12/19/2007
USCIS RD : 01/23/2012
USCIS ND : 01/25/2012
FP : 03/05/2012
EAD/AP Approval date : 02/25/2012

Nishant - I agree. For EB3 to receive any SOFAD whatsoever, EB2 will have to be current first.

This was just posted on CM's blog. He has now revised his prediction and is mentioning that retrogression may be severe based on I-485 receipt data which was released just few days ago. I don't know whether he uses the same method of calculation as Spec, Q, Veni, Teddy, Kd, Nishant, Sunniphx and other Gurus are using here but what I understood from his prediction was that basically his prediction is pretty much in line with what Q and Spec are saying.

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...a-fy-2012.html

Comments please........:(

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Isn't your last sentence the current policy?

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vizcard, there is no such thing as current policy or any rule, IMHO. We can interpret all we want and agencies can leave us baffled. My attempt is to try to understand the mindset of CO, because I am personally, not satisfied with any model or logic thought by us or anyone that could have predicted such movement.

Wov, the guy CM surely took an inspiration from some of the posts here by Teddy, Q and Spec, or maybe great minds think alike!

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Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes

This was just posted on CM's blog. He has now revised his prediction and is mentioning that retrogression may be severe based on I-485 receipt data which was released just few days ago. I don't know whether he uses the same method of calculation as Spec, Q, Veni, Teddy, Kd, Nishant, Sunniphx and other Gurus are using here but what I understood from his prediction was that basically his prediction is pretty much in line with what Q and Spec are saying.

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...a-fy-2012.html

Comments please........:(

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Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes

This was just posted on CM's blog. He has now revised his prediction and is mentioning that retrogression may be severe based on I-485 receipt data which was released just few days ago. I don't know whether he uses the same method of calculation as Spec, Q, Veni, Teddy, Kd, Nishant, Sunniphx and other Gurus are using here but what I understood from his prediction was that basically his prediction is pretty much in line with what Q and Spec are saying.

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...a-fy-2012.html

Comments please........:(

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He seem to have considered the Jan inventory to its face value( well almost near the face value). That's VERY interesting.. Also blog seem to be projecting SOFAD upto 35K. Thats also interesting , specially when considered individual category usages.

My own estimate that dates will be around Sep/Oct 2008 are based on following assumptions:
1) OR of around 0.7
2) slow processing from USCIS will help to approvals of more EB2IC cases. But SOFAD of 35K is far stretched IMO. If we manage to get SOFAD OF 27K-30K then we should consider our selves very lucky IMO.
3) Another assumption is (a big one may be ) that USCIS will carry forward sizable chunk of EB2IC cases into next FY(last year they carried cases worth 3-4 months).

So that's my case.

As per whether dates will keep on moving that's entirely based on what data is being presented to CO. That's kind of uncharted territory to me.

Just relieving my pressure here......

Being on EAD is good but at-last I am a human as-well , wants my dates (Oct 2008) to be processed with the ongoing trend duh I have lost hopes for anytime soon.With all postings (not an offense), my frustrations are at peak :), just back from gym did cardio 3 times more than I usually do.sounds funny to me when I think of it but that is all it is ....wanted to share with my best friends here at the forum :)

I have had a lot from this whole process, had to be away from my family for a year - had been through lots of mental pressure--- I am obsessed by GC - I want it :))

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

sport
My premise is based on following facts:
1. There were 40K EB1 EB2 left at the end of 2011 Sep.
2. In Q1 2012 of USCIS year only 36K were approved. So theoretically all intake that came in Q1 2012 is on top of earlier inventory not including EB3.
3. The incoming rate is ~2K for EB2IC.
4. Rate of everything else is same as last year.
5. So this year we will see same SOFAD + any reduction in EB2IC (i.e. 500 per month)
6. The reduction is approx 6K .... so ~3 months of supply.
7. So the max movement in 2012 year should be = same as last year's movement + 3 months.
8 Last year the sustainable movement was 11 months. This year it could be max 14 months i.e. August 2008.
9. Now consider this that EB1 backlog in 2011 grew from 7.5K to 15K!! For a category that is current this is not a sustainable situation to have that high backlog. So we should see more approvals there negating the 3 month advantage in EB2IC reduction in demand.
10. That takes us back to March 2008.

Also this doesn't take into account any improvement in EB1 or EB2ROW if economy improves.

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Thanks Q for bringing much needed sanity to the predictions, we had really gone overboard and were thinking all of 2008 PDs will be cleared. It will be great if it happens but I find it difficult to understand why demand would suddenly drop from a monthly 2200 to much less than than.

Throwing into into the conversation mix; http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...a-fy-2012.html

A lot of folks are arguing numbers but not their validity, which I suspect is very inaccurate, especially the Jan filing numbers. The only reliable statistic at this point is Nov/Dec numbers and based on that I could definitely see things retrogressing in April VB.

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Originally Posted by bloddy1

Throwing into into the conversation mix; http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...a-fy-2012.html

A lot of folks are arguing numbers but not their validity, which I suspect is very inaccurate, especially the Jan filing numbers. The only reliable statistic at this point is Nov/Dec numbers and based on that I could definitely see things retrogressing in April VB.

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Numbers are inaccurate on which site? As far as I can tell you- majority of people on this site understand that Jan numbers can not be taken to face value as well as the current movement is not because of low demand. If at all, current movement is because of artificially low numbers being presented to CO.

Desperate - Your frustration is understandable. But for your own sake don't be obsessed with GC. It's not worth more than whatever you like to do day in day out. Obsession with GC will hurt very things you like.

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Originally Posted by Desperate8

Just relieving my pressure here......

Being on EAD is good but at-last I am a human as-well , wants my dates (Oct 2008) to be processed with the ongoing trend duh I have lost hopes for anytime soon.With all postings (not an offense), my frustrations are at peak :), just back from gym did cardio 3 times more than I usually do.sounds funny to me when I think of it but that is all it is ....wanted to share with my best friends here at the forum :)

I have had a lot from this whole process, had to be away from my family for a year - had been through lots of mental pressure--- I am obsessed by GC - I want it :))

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Originally Posted by goforgreen

..we had really gone overboard and were thinking all of 2008 PDs will be cleared. It will be great if it happens but I find it difficult to understand why demand would suddenly drop from a monthly 2200 to much less than than.

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GFG - Yes. There is a bit of euphoria due to unexpected date movement. And those of us who understand the difference between date movement and GC backlog clearance, should point it out for benefit of those who dont. I think the numbers could go down because of economy. However I do not believe demand destruction - as in people abandoning GC process in hoards. There is just too much that people have staked to walk upto this point to just go back.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Q, I totally agree with you that ideally if all demand was generated at this point, March 2008 is a very good guess .....Hence I think that the dates ...may just sustain near the end of 2008/mid 2009 ....
...
they might intentionally start sending out RFEs or delay processing, which means that the dates would artificially hold.

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sportsfan the first one is a good point you make. i thought about it too. I do not know what exact number we could put there. But thoughts welcome! However even if somebody misses now - they will file within 2-3 months. So there won't be a sustained effect - so much so to move the EB2IC dates permanently near end of 2008 during this year itself.

On USCIS deliberately sending out RFE to delay processing .... I think they don't need to increase their workload just to delay things. They can simply delay things and take their sweet time if they want to.

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Originally Posted by bloddy1

..I could definitely see things retrogressing in April VB.

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My position is I don't know precisely. If the original movement is in response of true lack of demand then you can predict somewhat. But when the date movement is not based on demand and supply - how does one predict? All one can say is - this party will come to an end sometime really soon!!

Hey My Ex-Employer is not giving my W2. What are my options ?
I worked with him until Sep 2012 and then changed employer with his permission but he is not giving W2.

Please advice.
Sorry, As I posted in wrong forum.

check the link...hope it helps

http://www.h1blegalrights.com/2009/0...es-what-to-do/

If your employer was running your salary through adp, you will get this by 31st Jan, 2013 , of course.

But, here is what I would do (infact I did): Shoot him a mail (for your record) that you need W2 form to file taxes and mention that you will go to IRS if he does not give it to you.

There was a link I saw somewhere - google it. It essentially mentions that you can call IRS or DOL for this and they will follow up with the employer. Do not worry about this -just drop him/her a mail.

Thanks

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Originally Posted by tatikonda

Hey My Ex-Employer is not giving my W2. What are my options ?
I worked with him until Sep 2012 and then changed employer with his permission but he is not giving W2.

Please advice.
Sorry, As I posted in wrong forum.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by harapatta

check the link...hope it helps

http://www.h1blegalrights.com/2009/0...es-what-to-do/

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Hi Harapatta,

Thanks for quick reply. I want to resolve this issue amicably. Can I contact Pay-roll company ( Paycheck ) and ask them to send W2.

How does W2 gets generated, I guess Pay-roll company sends to employer and employer sends to employee.
Please advise.

Thank you

I am following this thread for long time, but posting for the first time. I want to thank all member of this forum for providing analysis and information related to 485 process. Specially Qesehmek, Spectator, Veni, Teddy, Leo, Nishanth for spending time and crunching number and offcourse Sogaddu for cheering the group.
I filed 485 in November and received GC last week & my Journey to GC ends here. So, want to take a moment to thank members of this forum and Hope everyone gets GC soon. Good Luck to all.

Adp sends W2 forms in snail mail directly to your home address. If you loose W2 form or don't receive one than you contact your HR - at least this is what we do in our company.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by tatikonda

Hi Harapatta,

Thanks for quick reply. I want to resolve this issue amicably. Can I contact Pay-roll company ( Paycheck ) and ask them to send W2.

How does W2 gets generated, I guess Pay-roll company sends to employer and employer sends to employee.
Please advise.

Thank you

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by eb2igc

I am following this thread for long time, but posting for the first time. I want to thank all member of this forum for providing analysis and information related to 485 process. Specially Qesehmek, Spectator, Veni, Teddy, Leo, Nishanth for spending time and crunching number and offcourse Sogaddu for cheering the group.
I filed 485 in November and received GC last week & my Journey to GC ends here. So, want to take a moment to thank members of this forum and Hope everyone gets GC soon. Good Luck to all.

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Congrats and good luck to you too!

Q, what part of "GC is greener!" don't you understand :-)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Desperate - Your frustration is understandable. But for your own sake don't be obsessed with GC. It's not worth more than whatever you like to do day in day out. Obsession with GC will hurt very things you like.


GFG - Yes. There is a bit of euphoria due to unexpected date movement. And those of us who understand the difference between date movement and GC backlog clearance, should point it out for benefit of those who dont. I think the numbers could go down because of economy. However I do not believe demand destruction - as in people abandoning GC process in hoards. There is just too much that people have staked to walk upto this point to just go back.

sportsfan the first one is a good point you make. i thought about it too. I do not know what exact number we could put there. But thoughts welcome! However even if somebody misses now - they will file within 2-3 months. So there won't be a sustained effect - so much so to move the EB2IC dates permanently near end of 2008 during this year itself.

On USCIS deliberately sending out RFE to delay processing .... I think they don't need to increase their workload just to delay things. They can simply delay things and take their sweet time if they want to.

My position is I don't know precisely. If the original movement is in response of true lack of demand then you can predict somewhat. But when the date movement is not based on demand and supply - how does one predict? All one can say is - this party will come to an end sometime really soon!!

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