EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

Hi Gurus,

We moved over the weekend to a new home and i changed mine and my wife's address and submitted AR-11 yesterday.Unfortunately,My AR-11 was submitted twice and in one of the submission info about my nationality was given wrong and the second submission had all correct information.

Will this cause any delay in my GC process or will this come up during Name check?.We are exepcting to be current in AUg 2011 bulletin( My wife is primay applicant). Please advise

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Originally Posted by H1GC140

Thank you friends for very quick response,

I just filed AR-11(address change). I didn't file AR-11 last time when I moved in 2007, so USCIS does not have my last apt address. I entered my friend's home address as my previous address to match USCIS record.

Que:
1) Should I have to file AR-11 for dependents?
2) I didn't use my previous apartment address as my previous address. Does it matter?

Thank you, Q, Teddy, leo07 and all members who answered my questions.

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Originally Posted by sidd21

Hi Gurus,

We moved over the weekend to a new home and i changed mine and my wife's address and submitted AR-11 yesterday.Unfortunately,My AR-11 was submitted twice and in one of the submission info about my nationality was given wrong and the second submission had all correct information.

Will this cause any delay in my GC process or will this come up during Name check?.We are exepcting to be current in AUg 2011 bulletin( My wife is primay applicant). Please advise

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The purpose for AR-11 is just that the agencies are aware of your latest address. Nationality and other information are just other pieces of information that they may be using to uniquely identify your record, it is just like validation questions that maybe posed to you when you call any helpline or call center. Since you submitted twice you should be ok but you can call up just to be sure by providing the confirmation numbers. When you file for your 485 they will surely update this information with the latest one so nothing to worry.

By my individual calculation 33K is the SOFAD that we could expect by a conservative calculation. Now out of that 25K has already been applied if we take the Jul bulletin into account. So really USCIS should not have any problems approving these cases unless the numbers have run out, the lack of approvals not only for EB2-I but for all other categories is very intriguing. We may not be able to attribute it just to the long weekend if there are no reports of approvals in the next 2 days if the online systems are functional. So for now lets wait and watch. I believe that realistically they may have another 8K (4K in the worst case and 12K in the best case) more to approve the preadjudicated cases. Now if really the numbers have run out then there will be no urgency for the agencies to push the dates sooner or build a buffer for next year. Let’s wait and watch the August bulletin (Movement expected till 01-JUN-2007) and the approval trend both are critical.

Thank You!!

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

The purpose for AR-11 is just that the agencies are aware of your latest address. Nationality and other information are just other pieces of information that they may be using to uniquely identify your record, it is just like validation questions that maybe posed to you when you call any helpline or call center. Since you submitted twice you should be ok but you can call up just to be sure by providing the confirmation numbers. When you file for your 485 they will surely update this information with the latest one so nothing to worry.

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http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

Uscis website alerts says their efiling system is down, n message was last updated on the 5th. Hopefully this is reason why no online notifications.


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Edit: apologies, dont know why I thought today is 9th.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

Uscis website alerts says their efiling system is down, n message was last updated on the 5th. Hopefully this is reason why no online notifications.

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Good link, thanks. That explains the delay in seeing the approvals.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

Uscis website alerts says their efiling system is down, n message was last updated on the 5th. Hopefully this is reason why no online notifications.

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Nishant thanks for posting something is really intriguing. For this one if you refer to the details they are suggesting that the system maybe down from 9th to 10th which is future dates. Probably these are linked as you suggest and the online notification system may well be down.

I don't think this could be the reason as it seems like this one is a scheduled downtime on the night of July 9th..

Can someone, who has filed 485, just call and check with them?

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

By my individual calculation 33K is the SOFAD that we could expect by a conservative calculation. Now out of that 25K has already been applied if we take the Jul bulletin into account. So really USCIS should not have any problems approving these cases unless the numbers have run out, the lack of approvals not only for EB2-I but for all other categories is very intriguing. We may not be able to attribute it just to the long weekend if there are no reports of approvals in the next 2 days if the online systems are functional. So for now lets wait and watch. I believe that realistically they may have another 8K (4K in the worst case and 12K in the best case) more to approve the preadjudicated cases. Now if really the numbers have run out then there will be no urgency for the agencies to push the dates sooner or build a buffer for next year. Let’s wait and watch the August bulletin (Movement expected till 01-JUN-2007) and the approval trend both are critical.

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Teddy

Per your calculations you expect the date to move to June 1st in Aug Bulletin and then move into 2008 in Sept Bulletin.

If building up the pipeline is indeed the strategy USCIS is going to adopt this year than dont you think that USCIS would move further than June 07 in Aug Bulletin and then into 2008 in Sept Bulletin.

Regards
Nat

Sorry guys, I put a edit note. I goofed up. Only ray of hope is that somehow these are linked.

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Originally Posted by natvyas

Teddy

Per your calculations you expect the date to move to June 1st in Aug Bulletin and then move into 2008 in Sept Bulletin.

If building up the pipeline is indeed the strategy USCIS is going to adopt this year than dont you think that USCIS would move further than June 07 in Aug Bulletin and then into 2008 in Sept Bulletin.

Regards
Nat

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I believe that probably 8K numbers are left and the dates would move till Jun in the Aug bulletin. When they want to build the pipeline is entirely upto them for now but definitely it would happen the timing is entirely the agencies discretion. For now the very critical thing is Aug approvals we must see approvals to confirm that numbers are indeed available.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

Sorry guys, I put a edit note. I goofed up. Only ray of hope is that somehow these are linked.

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Nishant don't worry every piece of information is greatly appreciated, like you I also hope that these are related.

I saw one person in another form called the service center and got the info that his case has been approved (current for july) but his online status is still initial review or something.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

By my individual calculation 33K is the SOFAD that we could expect by a conservative calculation. Now out of that 25K has already been applied if we take the Jul bulletin into account. So really USCIS should not have any problems approving these cases unless the numbers have run out, the lack of approvals not only for EB2-I but for all other categories is very intriguing. We may not be able to attribute it just to the long weekend if there are no reports of approvals in the next 2 days if the online systems are functional. So for now lets wait and watch. I believe that realistically they may have another 8K (4K in the worst case and 12K in the best case) more to approve the preadjudicated cases. Now if really the numbers have run out then there will be no urgency for the agencies to push the dates sooner or build a buffer for next year. Let’s wait and watch the August bulletin (Movement expected till 01-JUN-2007) and the approval trend both are critical.

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Teddy,
I assume your 25k calculation include EB2IC - FY2011 7% allocation (5.6k), am i correct?

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Originally Posted by SChowdary

I saw one person in another form called the service center and got the info that his case has been approved (current for july) but his online status is still initial review or something.

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http://murthyforum.atinfopop.com/4/O...1&m=6161026022

technocrat10 writes:
I just called the service center and got an update that my application (including family members) is approved and a request has been sent for card printing. I should expect card withing 2 weeks. Let's hope this is correct (online status does not reflect that).

Btw - has anybody noticed an issue of late status updates online. My AP papers are approved and received yesterday. Online status still shows 'Initial Review'. That's strange.

PD: October 24, 2006
Service Center: TSC
Status: Initial Review
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technocrat10 ko bahot bahot badhai, munh mei ghee sakkar. may he be the fore bearer of lots of such good news pouring in from people.

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Originally Posted by veni001

Teddy,
I assume your 25k calculation include EB2IC - FY2011 7% allocation (5.6k), am i correct?

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Veni, Yes you are right SOFAD includes the annual cap of 5.6K.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

http://murthyforum.atinfopop.com/4/O...1&m=6161026022

technocrat10 writes:
I just called the service center and got an update that my application (including family members) is approved and a request has been sent for card printing. I should expect card withing 2 weeks. Let's hope this is correct (online status does not reflect that).

Btw - has anybody noticed an issue of late status updates online. My AP papers are approved and received yesterday. Online status still shows 'Initial Review'. That's strange.

PD: October 24, 2006
Service Center: TSC
Status: Initial Review
----------------
technocrat10 ko bahot bahot badhai, munh mei ghee sakkar. may he be the fore bearer of lots of such good news pouring in from people.

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Nishant thanks for posting this may the start of good news. If there are more cases like that it may indicate that online system is not working consistently or is overwhelmed.

USCIS Public Engagement: Invitation to AC21 Stakeholder Engagement : This is certainly a good forum to address some questions on AC21 and Job portability.

We can try consolidating the questions and someone can attend and ask them.

http://content.govdelivery.com/bulle...USDHSCIS-a45d2

TeddyK,

Difference b/n June 1st and July 1st is ~1800, do you think it could be that tight this month?

Best!

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Veni, Yes you are right SOFAD includes the annual cap of 5.6K.



Nishant thanks for posting this may the start of good news. If there are more cases like that it may indicate that online system is not working consistently or is overwhelmed.

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Originally Posted by leo07

TeddyK,

Difference b/n June 1st and July 1st is ~1800, do you think it could be that tight this month?

Best!

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Leo its only a ball park figure with ~ 6K numbers worth of movement if its 8K then its entirely possible. Good luck to you, I hope you and me get our chance to file for 485 this year. Iam pretty sure that the dates will hit June atleast by September, I feel 8K in total movement is definitely possible. For now we must see mass approvals to see movement in the Aug bulletin.

Just as FYI, my 3rd 140 is only 24 days old, so i still have a long way to go :) I cannot even make it a PP as CIS won't allow that application for Premium processing.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

For now we must see mass approvals to see movement in the Aug bulletin.

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I am sorry but I don't quite understand this. This is my current understanding of the process. DOS advanced the dates significantly in the July bulletin, presumably to gauge the pending demand. It starts getting applications starting July 1st. It then has 10 days or so, to estimate whether it has enough applications to exhaust the available visa numbers, and publish the next bulletin. How do the number of approvals figure into this?
Apologies if this has been answered before. Q said that the rules change for spill over season but I didn't quite get that.

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Originally Posted by victorian

I am sorry but I don't quite understand this. This is my current understanding of the process. DOS advanced the dates significantly in the July bulletin, presumably to gauge the pending demand. It starts getting applications starting July 1st. It then has 10 days or so, to estimate whether it has enough applications to exhaust the available visa numbers, and publish the next bulletin. How do the number of approvals figure into this?
Apologies if this has been answered before. Q said that the rules change for spill over season but I didn't quite get that.

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Your understanding is correct, consider the scenario if DOS advanced the date a point further than till which numbers are actually available, in that case USCIS will not be able to close the cases. 11K additional people became current by the Jul bulletin so there should have been a large number of approvals daily if demand and supply match if the supply (Numbers are less) we will see far fewer approvals that does not augur well.

I think Teddy answered it well. Just to add a little bit to that, basically current months' bulletin movement is based on current-2 month's visa allocations. So the movement for July was determined by the results of May rather than June.

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Originally Posted by victorian

I am sorry but I don't quite understand this. This is my current understanding of the process. DOS advanced the dates significantly in the July bulletin, presumably to gauge the pending demand. It starts getting applications starting July 1st. It then has 10 days or so, to estimate whether it has enough applications to exhaust the available visa numbers, and publish the next bulletin. How do the number of approvals figure into this?
Apologies if this has been answered before. Q said that the rules change for spill over season but I didn't quite get that.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by victorian

I am sorry but I don't quite understand this. This is my current understanding of the process. DOS advanced the dates significantly in the July bulletin, presumably to gauge the pending demand. It starts getting applications starting July 1st. It then has 10 days or so, to estimate whether it has enough applications to exhaust the available visa numbers, and publish the next bulletin. How do the number of approvals figure into this?
Apologies if this has been answered before. Q said that the rules change for spill over season but I didn't quite get that.

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I agree with this. They already know the demand till 08 mar 07, other than PWMB + new dependents which should not be so much as to completely throw them completely off. If they didnt have enough visas they wouldnt have moved it this far.
I dont know much about online status but if it has to be manually updated then i would rather they spend their time in approving GC's rather than bothering with the online status.

More approvals means that they have not yet met the demand (including the spillovers for this year), in other words there are still numbers available to be allocated. In this case the numbers calculated by Venni, Spector, Q and their analysis is close to being true.

If the approvals stop abruptly, it means that they ran out of the numbers or are close to running out. In this case the next VB we wouldn't see much movement.