EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

Guys,

As it appears the current slow on perm approvals is helping the dates move well into 2009. I presume that the dates may further move in Jan-2015 after a temporary halt at the beginning of FY-2015 quota which gives the CO a better understanding on how he wants to handle the FY'15. If the dates move into Oct-2009, then the pending inventory will be shrink-ed and left with around 9K and adding another 5K porting applications for the FY-2015 it brings the total to around 14K which I believe is a number that would tempt CO to push dates further and this time past May-2010.

I understand that the applicants affected by current perm slow down will show up in the inventory some time this year, but if the same slow down continues it will have a similar bearing on the applicants that are currently or yet apply for Perm especially those from EB2-ROW.

So with this assumption, wouldn't it make the picture a little optimistic for those applicants post May-2010?

V

Hi Gurus,

I see "2014 - Visa Reciprocity changes " document on AILA website,
Unfortunately we do not have access to these documents ..

Anyone of you know, what is cooking here ??
I am crossing my fingers :) ..

http://www.aila.org/

Regards
Tatikonda.

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Originally Posted by CleanSock

Inventory buildup in second half of FY2015? That sounds very dream like! I just checked PERM statistics of FY 2010. I see from DOL pdf that they certified 28,930 PERM applications from Indians. I am not sure how many of those were for EB2I. How does that number compare to EB2I in FY2009 and how many have they processed/will be processing (a rough estimate) by the end of this FY?
Sorry if this had already been explained before. All those previous calculations went over my head.

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In FY2010, DOL has started with 67K backlog and ended the year with 30K backlog. During this time they have recieved 44K, Adjudicated 83K & Certified 71K PERMS.
So, the 29K PERMs which they certified for India belongs to some of FY2008 PDs, whole of FY2009 PDs & very few of FY2010 PDs.

The DHS Yearbook Of Immigration Statistics for FY2013 has been published.

Some figures from the tables.

Breakdown of EB1 by Sub-Category

EB1A - 25,0%
EB1B - 19.2%
EB1C - 55.7%

Note - Principals Only. Dependents are not broken down.

Principals & Dependents By Category (includes Principal)

EB1 - 2.40
EB2 - 2.02
EB3 - 2.14
EB4 - 1.48 (2.18 when SIJ are excluded)
EB5 - 2.74

As per Fragomen Memo the PD's would move to Early Summer 2009 by September bulletin. Does Early Summer mean June or July?

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Originally Posted by aquatican

As per Fragomen Memo the PD's would move to Early Summer 2009 by September bulletin. Does Early Summer mean June or July?

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As knowledgeable as the people on this forum are, I dont think there's anyone who is qualified to answer "what early summer" means with any degree of accuracy. As far as CODs, the furthest prediction has been July 1.

FWIW, June 22 is the first possible COD after the summer solstice :)

Thanks Spec! Always first out of the gate.

EB4 dependent ratio is "interesting" to say the least. All sorts of thoughts raced through my mind. But I am gonna keep shut lest somebody get offended ;)

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Originally Posted by Spectator

The DHS Yearbook Of Immigration Statistics for FY2013 has been published.

Some figures from the tables.

Breakdown of EB1 by Sub-Category

EB1A - 25,0%
EB1B - 19.2%
EB1C - 55.7%

Note - Principals Only. Dependents are not broken down.

Principals & Dependents By Category (includes Principal)

EB1 - 2.40
EB2 - 2.02
EB3 - 2.14
EB4 - 1.48
EB5 - 2.74

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Thanks Spec! Always first out of the gate.

EB4 dependent ratio is "interesting" to say the least. All sorts of thoughts raced through my mind. But I am gonna keep shut lest somebody get offended ;)

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Q,

I think I know where you are going with that one!

Actually, to be serious, all is not quite as it seems.

Nearly a third of EB4 approvals (2,764 of 8,543) relate to Juvenile court dependents. They are a category in their own right and count as principal approvals.

If they were removed, the EB4 Principal/Dependent ratio would be 2.18.

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

In FY2010, DOL has started with 67K backlog and ended the year with 30K backlog. During this time they have recieved 44K, Adjudicated 83K & Certified 71K PERMS.
So, the 29K PERMs which they certified for India belongs to some of FY2008 PDs, whole of FY2009 PDs & very few of FY2010 PDs.

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Hi YTekeven,
So when is the optimum time when you think CO will consider early 2011 even for EAD/AP. thanks in advance for your input

I was just joking... but interesting to see Emp category visas being used for purposes nothing to do with employment. IMHO they should get FB visas. Another place where an advocacy is required then.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,

I think I know where you are going with that one!

Actually, to be serious, all is not quite as it seems.

Nearly a third of EB4 approvals (2,764 of 8,543) relate to Juvenile court dependents. They are a category in their own right and count as principal approvals.

If they were removed, the EB4 Principal/Dependent ratio would be 2.18.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I was just joking... but interesting to see Emp category visas being used for purposes nothing to do with employment. IMHO they should get FB visas. Another place where an advocacy is required then.

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Q,

Well it is called Fourth: Certain special immigrants

Very few are directly Employment Based, but none would come under FB either.

Are you sure you want them to go to FB?

Currently, EB4 is the best source of Fall Up/Down. If they went elsewhere, so would their visa allocation.

EB5 doesn't really fit into EB either, but the alternative is to have 4 numerically limited groups instead of 2.

I think there is a case to be made that they be not taken out of any preference visas whether EB or FB.

Being an EX-EB category member of course I am biased towards EB and so I can't see how "Certain Special Immigrants" can be classified into Emp based category. Religious workers fit the category well. But juveniles that courts don't know what to do with don't exactly fit EB category.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,

Well it is called Fourth: Certain special immigrants

Very few are directly Employment Based, but none would come under FB either.

Are you sure you want them to go to FB?

Currently, EB4 is the best source of Fall Up/Down. If they went elsewhere, so would their visa allocation.

EB5 doesn't really fit into EB either, but the alternative is to have 4 numerically limited groups instead of 2.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I think there is a case to be made that they be not taken out of any preference visas whether EB or FB.

Being an EX-EB category member of course I am biased towards EB and so I can't see how "Certain Special Immigrants" can be classified into Emp based category. Religious workers fit the category well. But juveniles that courts don't know what to do with don't exactly fit EB category.

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Hey if EB is for future employment, juvies fall in that category, no? :)

:) We need a future employer sponsoring them which is absent in this case!

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Hey if EB is for future employment, juvies fall in that category, no? :)

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I think there is a case to be made that they be not taken out of any preference visas whether EB or FB.

Being an EX-EB category member of course I am biased towards EB and so I can't see how "Certain Special Immigrants" can be classified into Emp based category. Religious workers fit the category well. But juveniles that courts don't know what to do with don't exactly fit EB category.

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Your comment has jogged a memory of a salient point.

I'm a little annoyed at the new USCIS All Forms report because it no longer splits I-360 into sub groups.

Why is that important?

Juvenile court dependents (SIJ) do not count against the EB4 allocation of 7.1%. DHS really should not include them under EB4 in their report, in the same way as (for example) VAWA approvals are not part of EB4.

That's why the DOS figures show far fewer approvals under EB4 than the DHS report does. Removing the SIJ actually makes the DHS figures lower than DOS figures, but they never agree for any Category.

In light of that, I think I will put in a corrected figure for dependent ratio in my original post.

The fact remains that Ministers and Religious Workers are the only 2 true employment groups within EB4. They account for well under half of the visas used. I think Congress realized they were creating something of an odds and sods Category to mop up remaining cases.

EB5 isn't really an EB Category either. It might require employment creation, but there is no requirement that the beneficiary works at all.

Bow 1..
Bow 2..
Bow 3.
Nobody can dig this out other than "Spec".

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Your comment has jogged a memory of a salient point.

I'm a little annoyed at the new USCIS All Forms report because it no longer splits I-360 into sub groups.

Why is that important?

Juvenile court dependents (SIJ) do not count against the EB4 allocation of 7.1%. DHS really should not include them under EB4 in their report, in the same way as (for example) VAWA approvals are not part of EB4.

That's why the DOS figures show far fewer approvals under EB4 than the DHS report does. Removing the SIJ actually makes the DHS figures lower than DOS figures, but they never agree for any Category.

In light of that, I think I will put in a corrected figure for dependent ratio in my original post.

The fact remains that Ministers and Religious Workers are the only 2 true employment groups within EB4. They account for well under half of the visas used. I think Congress realized they were creating something of an odds and sods Category to mop up remaining cases.

EB5 isn't really an EB Category either. It might require employment creation, but there is no requirement that the beneficiary works at all.

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Damn!!

I was looking at the wrong figure.

There is not much of a difference between the DOS and DHS figures for EB4 (500 or so).

Still, I do seem to remember finding out previously that SIJ do not count. I'm going to have to research it and find out. It's driving me nuts now.

I now realize why I thought SIJ were not counted under EB4, but it appears to be an erroneous assumption (a real ass of me).

SIJ do in fact count towards EB4 numbers according to a breakdown of EB4 I found.

In light of that, based on the I-360 approval numbers, I am surprised that EB4 approvals are so low.

I eat humble pie.

That's ok Spec. It doesn't lessen your diligence.

So I guess the bottomline is SIJ do count towards EB4 and both DoS and DHS figures count them towards EB4. Is that correct?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I now realize why I thought SIJ were not counted under EB4, but it appears to be an erroneous assumption (a real ass of me).

SIJ do in fact count towards EB4 numbers according to a breakdown of EB4 I found.

In light of that, based on the I-360 approval numbers, I am surprised that EB4 approvals are so low.

I eat humble pie.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

That's ok Spec. It doesn't lessen your diligence.

So I guess the bottomline is SIJ do count towards EB4 and both DoS and DHS figures count them towards EB4. Is that correct?

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Q,

That's correct.

EB4 is a right mix of cases that don't fit anywhere else.

Previously (a long time ago), I was trying to link I-360 approvals to EB4 use, because we never get any information about EB4 during the year. Including the SIJ cases was giving figures that were too high given the dependent ratio. Excluding them actually gave a good fit. That's where my erroneous assumption came from. The fact that they are included leaves a slight mystery as to why approvals are so low. I've accepted that it is probably a problem I will not resolve.

Sorry for the wild goose chase.

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Originally Posted by hushmybaby

Hi YTeleven,
So when is the optimum time when you think CO will consider early 2011 even for EAD/AP. thanks in advance for your input

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If we assume the following visa allocations for the EB2-I (which is a fair one considering the last 4 years stats):
FY14 - 22k
FY15 - 12k
FY16 - 22k
then we can expect early 2011 cases will be getting the EADs in early FY17.
Also, FY17 will be interesting to see as there will not be any EB3-EB2 porting pressures for EB2-I as all of the EB3-I backlog will be cleared by then due to lack of EB3-ROW demand.

Hey YT,
If we assume 22k for FY14, will that take us past July 09 considering the demand data. Thanks.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

If we assume the following visa allocations for the EB2-I (which is a fair one considering the last 4 years stats):
FY14 - 22k
FY15 - 12k
FY16 - 22k
then we can expect early 2011 cases will be getting the EADs in early FY17.
Also, FY17 will be interesting to see as there will not be any EB3-EB2 porting pressures for EB2-I as all of the EB3-I backlog will be cleared by then due to lack of EB3-ROW demand.

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Originally Posted by shekhar_kuruk

Hey YT,
If we assume 22k for FY14, will that take us past July 09 considering the demand data. Thanks.

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There is already 5.5k visas issued under FY14 quota in Oct'13. There is 10.5k demand exists before the 1Jan2009 PD.
So, the remaining 6k (22k-5.5k-10.5k) will take us to May'09.
But we need more visas than 22k this year if we want to see the dates move beyond Jul'09.

On trackitt, the RFEs were received as latest as Oct 2009. Are they gonna move dates to fall of 2009? Does it mean they have numbers to allot up to Aug 2009 or so? I'm July 2009 and yet to file 485.

No one is sure about the how far the dates will move in Aug's & Sep's Bulletin, you may be able to file for AOS if they move past July 09 in Sep's bulletin.
I think everyone in this forum will be suprised if not shocked, if they move to Oct 09 in Sep's or Oct's bulletin, it all depends on the spill over.
But I think you have a fair chance to file for AOS this fall. Good luck.

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Originally Posted by jimmys

On trackitt, the RFEs were received as latest as Oct 2009. Are they gonna move dates to fall of 2009? Does it mean they have numbers to allot up to Aug 2009 or so? I'm July 2009 and yet to file 485.

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