EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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08-03-2011, 11:27 AM
ssvp22

Quote:

Originally Posted by gchopeful123

Ajmeri Baba??? Lolz...I heard he resolves all life problems within 7 days!!!

Prem Jyotish is another one. I could never figure out if he started off by solving "prem" related problems or that was his name ;)
08-03-2011, 11:36 AM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

There's one possibility which Q has mentioned earlier. About BTM in October. That also removes burden on USCIS to do additional work during the finishing stages of FY 2011.

The problem with that is the potential outstanding cases left after the September VB.

If the Sept VB moves, say, to the end of June 2007, that leaves around 3.7k pre-adjudicated cases left plus any PWMB that become ready to adjudicate plus porting.

Moving the COD beyond August 15 2007 for BTM in October 2011, makes all those cases eligible for approval in October itself. That is around 70% of the initial 5,606 allocation to EB2-IC.

In Q1 only 27% of the overall EB total is available.

It isn't impossible, but it does have difficulties.

If the September VB can approach August 15 2007, or even late July 2007 then it becomes very possible. Both China and India have large numbers in July 2007.

That, at least, is my concern.
08-03-2011, 11:41 AM
qesehmk

qbf I was thinking about exactly the same thing yesterday and so I checked trackitt.
Here are some interesting things I found:

~900 YTD approved
~900 pending which are current
~500 pending from above were last updated prior to April 2011. (i.e. its possible they are already approved but never updated).

But still that leaves 400 EB2I cases that current as well as updated on trackitt in the last 3 months but are still pending!!!

In fact this statistics made me seriously think about what Spec suggested - "Was the movement in Jul / Aug BTM"???

That is too pessimistic a thought for now. I really don't know.

Quote:

Originally Posted by qblogfan

One guy called USCIS and USCIS said that they are still working on the cases that became current in July. Because the number is huge, so they didn't finish processing yet. Several guys on mitbbs became current in July, but their cases are still pending.

As per our source ...(its a california baba - one can say Kali Baba!!) he was in India until recently .... said was going to return first week of August. We will check w him late this week or early next week.
08-03-2011, 11:45 AM
mesan123

Shayad wo baba ap to nahi... :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

Nah... he has a Baba in deep forests of amazon who predicts the number movement every time...;-)
08-03-2011, 11:47 AM
Monica12

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

qbf I was thinking about exactly the same thing yesterday and so I checked trackitt.
Here are some interesting things I found:

~900 YTD approved
~900 pending which are current
~500 pending from above were last updated prior to April 2011. (i.e. its possible they are already approved but never updated).

[B]But still that leaves 400 EB2I cases that current as well as updated on trackitt in the last 3 months but are still pending!!!
In fact this statistics made me seriously think about what Spec suggested - "Was the movement in Jul / Aug BTM"??? [/B]
That is too pessimistic a thought for now. I really don't know.

As per our source ...(its a california baba - one can say Kali Baba!!) he was in India until recently .... said was going to return first week of August. We will check w him late this week or early next week.

Man.. that doesn't look good at all...:(
Q, hopefully, your source returns soon and can give us more info
08-03-2011, 12:02 PM
qesehmk

Spec

My bad. I didn't realize you were talking about Aug / Sep 2008. I thought you were talking about this Jul/Aug movement. As per 2008 I don't have any comments.

As per BTM - My "theory" is it should happen early in the year preferably Q1 or latest Q2. If its Q2 or Q3 then it might as well be SFM rather than BTM.
Thanks for the info on Min Max and Law. So in that case - I do like your suggestion about April May moevment. But then I would be worried about the ability to process intake that late in the year. So I do not know how they will sovle this problem.

We alread agree in terms of coordination between agencies and the difficulty in maintain sustained slow forward movement.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

I do think it was quick and clean. The dates advanced only in August/September 2008 and in October 2008 retrogressed to April 2003.

The fact that very few later cases appear to have been approved tends to say that FIFO was not disrupted. Rather, it was a ploy to allow filing. Maybe we differ on the definition of quick.

Really good questions. Answers in reverse order.

It is the law, as laid down in the INA. INA 201 (a)(2) says:

It represents a maximum and there is no corresponding minimum that must be allocated. The maximum is calculated on the total EB allocation and does not have to be prorated for individual Categories or Countries.

I agree. Ultimately, if USCIS request more visas than are available, DOS can stop issuing them. By all accounts, that happened last year in FB and the full quota was exhausted 2 weeks before the end of the FY. You won't find any disagreement from me on this point. I absolutely think they should have BTM in September.
08-03-2011, 12:04 PM
qesehmk

I am sorry. Just a thought ... of course based on facts.
But there are some other good facts that run contrary to these facts. Basically the trackitt approved trend still points to a very favorable result i.e. clearing of all backlog till Jul 8th, 2007. Will post later in the day.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monica12

Man.. that doesn't look good at all...:(
Q, hopefully, your source returns soon and can give us more info
08-03-2011, 12:15 PM
familyguy

Guys, Instead of wondering how the dates will move post July/Aug 2007, is there a way to contact DOS asking them to explain their plans? Couple of days ago I sent an email to visabulletin@state.gov and so far I haven't received any reply yet.. Is there any other way to contact them?
08-03-2011, 12:24 PM
victorian

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

I see 3 EB2-I approvals in Trackitt for August. One of them has PD which was current in August Bulletin. this one has PD of 3/9/07, so maybe our Victorian itself.

Yup, that's me. Looks like I am the first one to be approved in Aug. I finished off half a bottle of Laphroaig yesterday and I am sitting bleary eyed in the office today and hoping nobody notices it :P
08-03-2011, 12:29 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by nnnnn123

Shayad wo baba ap to nahi... :)

namakool!!!!!!!...amazon wale amazing baba...iss ko maaf kardo...bacha hein ji...theek se ek alphabet bhi nahi bol saktha... dekho naam mein kitne baar 'n' hein.. ;-) ....

nnnnnnn bhai... hum woh nahi hein jo aap samaj rahe ho...
08-03-2011, 12:30 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by victorian

Yup, that's me. Looks like I am the first one to be approved in Aug. I finished off half a bottle of Laphroaig yesterday and I am sitting bleary eyed in the office today and hoping nobody notices it :P

So you are the one who is saying YES to all the things in our business conference meeting without even thinking!!!!!!!!!!!!...

Congratz bhai...
08-03-2011, 12:36 PM
mesan123

Hum bhai nahi sir....gender change math karoo....

anyway is there a way to change your profile name????

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

namakool!!!!!!!...amazon wale amazing baba...iss ko maaf kardo...bacha hein ji...theek se ek alphabet bhi nahi bol saktha... dekho naam mein kitne baar 'n' hein.. ;-) ....

nnnnnnn bhai... hum woh nahi hein jo aap samaj rahe ho...
08-03-2011, 12:39 PM
Monica12

Quote:

Originally Posted by nnnnn123

Hum bhai nahi sir....gender change math karoo....

nnnnnn behen... waise hi Sep VB ka itna confusion hai...now all this gender confusion also..;)
08-03-2011, 12:41 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monica12

nnnnnn behen... waise hi Sep VB ka itna confusion hai...now all this gender confusion also..;)

abhi tak aap yehi pe hooo... javoo jaake september vaali line mein khada ho javoo.... move itttttt....
08-03-2011, 12:47 PM
Monica12

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

abhi tak aap yehi pe hooo... javoo jaake september vaali line mein khada ho javoo.... move itttttt....

Buddy, If I get current in September,I will find you and treat you and your wife to martinis and margaritas...:)
btw, I'm standing in the September line and waiting for Q's source to give us some good news
08-03-2011, 12:48 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by nnnnn123

Hum bhai nahi sir....gender change math karoo....

woh toh mein waise bhi nahi kar saktha ji...bahut costly padegi....
08-03-2011, 12:54 PM
cbpds1

you made my day !!

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

Nah... he has a Baba in deep forests of amazon who predicts the number movement every time...;-)
08-03-2011, 01:08 PM
srimurthy

Any chance with the economic condition as it was from 2008 to 2010, there are less PERM filing and PD dates moving faster from next year or so?
08-03-2011, 01:27 PM
gchopeful123

We should officially name him "Source Baba"!!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

As per our source ...(its a california baba - one can say Kali Baba!!) he was in India until recently .... said was going to return first week of August. We will check w him late this week or early next week.
08-03-2011, 01:32 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by srimurthy

Any chance with the economic condition as it was from 2008 to 2010, there are less PERM filing and PD dates moving faster from next year or so?

murty garu... r u back from hibernation already? ... anyway check the facts and data section spec and veni has the perm numbers divided on monthly basis...
08-03-2011, 01:33 PM
bieber

Quote:

Originally Posted by srimurthy

Any chance with the economic condition as it was from 2008 to 2010, there are less PERM filing and PD dates moving faster from next year or so?

That's very good point, the overall new perms for fy2012 will be less than fy2010/fy2011 if not at the same level of fy2009, companies not hirings, no job growth, tougher immigration practices all lead to lower filings
08-03-2011, 01:34 PM
bieber

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

woh toh mein waise bhi nahi kar saktha ji...bahut costly padegi....

I keep away myself from posting on such replies to improve the signal but this is hilarious
08-03-2011, 01:38 PM
vchirakala

EB2 PD Apr 18 2008

Hi Friends,

Please let me know when I can expect my PD to be current. Can it happen this year or do I have to wait for another 1 -2 years.

- VC
08-03-2011, 01:41 PM
ssvp22

Quote:

Originally Posted by vchirakala

Hi Friends,

Please let me know when I can expect my PD to be current. Can it happen this year or do I have to wait for another 1 -2 years.

- VC

My date is Oct 22 2007. Right now i am doubting if i will get through in 2012.
08-03-2011, 01:41 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by srimurthy

Any chance with the economic condition as it was from 2008 to 2010, there are less PERM filing and PD dates moving faster from next year or so?

srimurthy,
You can chek PERM Certification Data (CY-FY Matrix) under FACTS AND DATA Section

Quote:

Originally Posted by bieber

That's very good point, the overall new perms for fy2012 will be less than fy2010/fy2011 if not at the same level of fy2009, companies not hirings, no job growth, tougher immigration practices all lead to lower filings

bieber,
Based of FY2011(Q1+Q2) data and recent Fact Sheet released by DOL it doesn't look that way, let's wait and see.
08-03-2011, 01:45 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by ssvp22

My date is Oct 22 2007. Right now i am doubting if i will get through in 2012.

you got to be kidding me... mine is same PD ssvp... and dont be so pessimistic ss bhai... according to Q, we should be cool by end of Q1 2012...

VC bhai...you neednt wait chirakaalam(forever) for your PD to be current...expect it to be blipping on the radar by/before end of FY 2012...
08-03-2011, 01:56 PM
imdeng

Awesome - Thanks Spec. You guys do great work here and if I understand the process a little better now - its all due to the awesome content you guys have here. Also a HT to Teddy for his IV thread - I no longer participate there - but I did learn a lot there.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

imdeng,

Good post.

A very good summation of what would have to happen in that situation. You clearly understand the ramifications of such a situation.
08-03-2011, 01:59 PM
bieber

Quote:

Originally Posted by veni001

bieber,
Based of FY2011(Q1+Q2) data and recent Fact Sheet released by DOL it doesn't look that way, let's wait and see.

Veni, when do u think Q3 perm numbers will be released? also, if you happen to create a table with approved dates for calculating EB1 140s, can you please share it?
08-03-2011, 02:02 PM
mesan123

Hum tho line me last ...my priority date is 2/2011...humara number tab ayyaga....when all you guys are green.... :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

abhi tak aap yehi pe hooo... javoo jaake september vaali line mein khada ho javoo.... move itttttt....
08-03-2011, 02:11 PM
grnwtg

Quote:

Originally Posted by vchirakala

Hi Friends,

Please let me know when I can expect my PD to be current. Can it happen this year or do I have to wait for another 1 -2 years.

- VC

There are 20% chances that you will get chance to file 485 to get EAD this year and GC next year.
There are 80% chances that you will get GC by next year end. Actually by next year there are good possibilities but uscis is not leaving any chance to delay this. Example: recent addition of new category to eb2 with out increasing the number of visas.
There are 100% chances that you will get GC in next 2 years.
08-03-2011, 02:17 PM
rahil1

Quote:

Originally Posted by bieber

That's very good point, the overall new perms for fy2012 will be less than fy2010/fy2011 if not at the same level of fy2009, companies not hirings, no job growth, tougher immigration practices all lead to lower filings

I do not agree with you. The job growth is very good especially in IT and companies are in hiring frenzy. I have personally seen too manny recruiter calling.. Please read the article in businessweek called " hiring like its 1999"
08-03-2011, 02:18 PM
nishant2200

But are they doing it for people needing visa, or GC, or EB2 etc. any input on that.

Quote:

Originally Posted by rahil1

I do not agree with you. The job growth is very good especially in IT and companies are in hiring frenzy. I have personally seen too manny recruiter calling.. Please read the article in businessweek called " hiring like its 1999"
08-03-2011, 02:20 PM
rahil1

thats the million dollar question.. but its is not a fact that "companies not hirings, no job growth"
08-03-2011, 02:21 PM
vchirakala

Thx

Thx soggadu. May be another 1 year to get my EAD atleast ;-(
08-03-2011, 02:22 PM
vchirakala

Atleast if i get my EAD I will be happy.

Quote:

Originally Posted by grnwtg

There are 20% chances that you will get chance to file 485 to get EAD this year and GC next year.
There are 80% chances that you will get GC by next year end. Actually by next year there are good possibilities but uscis is not leaving any chance to delay this. Example: recent addition of new category to eb2 with out increasing the number of visas.
There are 100% chances that you will get GC in next 2 years.
08-03-2011, 02:24 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by bieber

Veni, when do u think Q3 perm numbers will be released? also, if you happen to create a table with approved dates for calculating EB1 140s, can you please share it?

bieber,

The Q2 file was released on 4/29/2011, so it should be any time now.

My only worry is that if all resources are diverted to sorting out the PWD mess, the publication might be delayed.
08-03-2011, 02:29 PM
evoori

My first post here.. Was a silent spectator here for long but couldn't resist in getting involved in such an interesting forum..

Regarding PWMBs..
I see around 23K PERM approvals from India itself for 2007 in FACTS AND DATA.. If we take 7/12 approvals 2007. we have around 14K Perm approvals leading to 30K I485.. If we assume 40% to be EB2, that leads 12K PWMBs.. Anything wrong with my assumption..

Regarding BTM..
If DoS does go for BTM now, they have to issue GCs to all the preadj. cases.. otherwise next month when they retrogress, those who don't get GC (late July and Aug 2007) will start crying..

My first post, so don't beat me..

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Teddy

Thanks. I dont disagree w all these things. But try working with numbers and work it backwords starting with 2012 spillover season.
Even if we go with 20K sofad calculations will look as follows:

20 k = leftover till Aug 2007 + pwmb + porting + 2 X M

where M = months beyond and including August

20 = 3 + (3+3) + 2 X M

so M = 5.5 months

That brings us to Mid January 2008

So if USCIS needs to clear a case in January, when should they have that case in? I think India/China and ROW have different standardsfor 485 processing. 6-9 months is minimum. Even if you go with 6 months, it means by end of Q2 i.e. Mar 2012 - Mid Jan 2008 has to be reached.

If USCIS does that then they are left with Zero cases in their hopper in Sep 2012 unless they move another couple of months between May - Sep 2012.

In my judgement they wont move so much on the edge of knife! At all times they would want to maintain a healthy buffer or work in progress inventory. Thats why rather than mid Jan 2008, the movement should at least be till Mar 2008 for EB2IC by Mar 2012.
08-03-2011, 02:31 PM
kolugc

Because of this economy I am thinking of moving to a Product Co which I know closely from the consulting firm I am in. My PD is 09-June-2008 and have my I140 approved from my consulting firm.

If I move to the new Co, what would have to do for keeping my PD. AFAIK,

1. I have to apply for a new Labor Cert from the new job (in the new location)
2. When I transfer my H-1B visa I should use the approved I140, so that I can get the visa extended to 3 more years along with the H-1B transfer.

Other questions
1. Is there anything else I have to take care of?
2. New labor should not take more than 3-6 months right?
3. If I joined the new Co by Jan 2012 and if the my PD becomes current sometime in Mar 2012, then if my labor cert is not through with the new job, what should I do?
4. Can I join back at my Old Co and apply 485 from there (I can do this with out another H-1B transfer (back to old Co), because I do have a valid H-1B with them through 2013 Jan.

Please let me know what you guru's think about my options? Or do you think its a risk to join the new firm?
08-03-2011, 02:49 PM
natvyas

Visa Bulletin Page Updated !!!

The Visa Bulletin offers valuable information about immigration*.

Upcoming month's visa bulletin: September 2011 (Coming Soon)

I think the demand data (if USCIS wants to publish one) should be out tomorrow and the bulletin on Friday
08-03-2011, 02:56 PM
nishant2200

natvyas, this is usual for them to update the page on the early first week of the month.

It does not necessarily imply anything about the timeline of the bulletin release, IMHO.

But good information regardless, keep the news coming! At least it means there will be a bulletin :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by natvyas

The Visa Bulletin offers valuable information about immigration*.

Upcoming month's visa bulletin: September 2011 (Coming Soon)

I think the demand data (if USCIS wants to publish one) should be out tomorrow and the bulletin on Friday

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