EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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Originally Posted by Spectator

ssvp22,

I will say with 99.99999% certainty that these will be treated exactly the same as any other EB2, whether it be an EB2 sponsored by a start-up company or a self petitioned NIW.

A law change is required to create a new category, add visas or exempt anything from numerical limits of any kind, be it the overall numbers or the per Country limits. That is beyond the powers of USCIS.

This is just clarification that entrepreneurs may apply under EB2. Unless they are applying under Exceptional Ability, the need for an Advanced Degree or equivalent is the same.

Call me cynical, but I think the announcement has more to do with



and the subject being the flavor of the month, than any real attempt to make things any better for anyone.

DHS just wants to look good and suck up to the President.

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Thank you for the response spec. I agree with you on the "suck up to the President". If you look at the words "Entrepreneur will be working for a U.S. employer who files a petition on the entrepreneur’s behalf", i cant make sense of them in any fashion. How can an Entrepreneur be employed with someone else? This clause in itself is going to cause the complete program to fail. All this seems to be similar to the trick a lazy developer will pull off in front of his manager - see i said you, this is not going to work.

Or maybe i am hung up on the words while they mean something else.

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Originally Posted by victorian

Guys, I just got a status update e-mail with status "Card Document/Production" status. PD- Mar 09, 2007. However, there is a slight twist in the tale. I changed my address a couple of days ago and called them to verify the change. Level 1 said that my document has been mailed out and transferred me to Level 2 to get my tracking number. Level 2 confirmed the address change, but said that my I-485 has not been approved. The online status says the same thing as the e-mail.

Is there any cause of concern that this might be a tech glitch with USCIS?

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victorian,

I did see your post, but I have been holding off on the congratulations because of your twist in the tale, particularly since you also said you have had an address change.

If the "Card Document/Production" status explanation said "On August 02, 2011, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you."

then it will be an approval.

If it said "On August 02, 2011 we mailed the document to the address we have on file. You should receive the new document within 30 days."

then it is likely only a confirmation of the address change.

Can you confirm what the text said?

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Originally Posted by victorian

This is curious. Now, my status has gone back to "Decision" from "Document/Card Production"

Here is the text -

On August 2, 2011, we mailed you a notice that we had registered this customer's new permanent resident status. Please follow any instructions on the notice. Your new permanent resident card should be mailed within 60 days following this registration or after you complete any ADIT processing referred to in the welcome notice, whichever is later.
During this step the formal decision (approved/denied) is written and the decision notice is mailed and/or emailed to the applicant/petitioner. You can use our current processing time to gauge when you can expect to receive a final decision.

I guess this means that my case is still not approved? Anyone have any insight?

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victorian,

We were obviously typing at the same time! My last post now seems fairly redundant.

Many congratulations!!

The status bouncing around seems very common - don't worry about it - you are definitely green.

PS I know that is easy for me to say. You must be so excited.

Thanks Teddy and Spectator! LOL. The last paragraph completely reinforced my naturally pessimistic leanings. Wish all of you guys the very best of luck! I would pray, but being an atheist, my prayers might just not find a sympathetic ear.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

victorian,

We were obviously typing at the same time! My last post now seems fairly redundant.

Many congratulations!!

The status bouncing around seems very common - don't worry about it - you are definitely green.

PS I know that is easy for me to say. You must be so excited.

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Friends both the news from Today will be headwinds for SOFAD.

1) The entrepreneur category is a great avenue for inviting and giving a chance to good and deserving people to get GC. From the SOFAD purpose though it increases ROW consumption and hence will surely reduce SOFAD, it will really depend on how effective this new sub - category will be and how much traction it will attract. This category is like Eb5 junior.

2) Resumption of EB1 premium processing, I remember Spec's 15 month analogy, this year we enjoyed the SOFAD due to slower pace, next year might well be backlog alleviation + back to regular pace so it will be significantly less SOFAD it is almost like debt payment time. I think there will be huge money to cash in by premium processing.
These developments must be being planned at the time of the Aug bulletin, they kind of reinforce the fact that Sep nay not be very optimistic. Also if both 1 & 2 take place they will significantly reduce the chance of BTM happening before May 2012 if it does not happen in Sep 2011.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

The USCIS FAQ have been updated (LUD 08/02) to include the enterpreneur category. So looks like this has been implemented right away.

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...004718190aRCRD

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They will implement everything right away, if it will screw the IC category. But they are talking about allowing people to file I-485 when PD is not current for couple of years now...but still talking.

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Originally Posted by nnnnn123

Thank you nishant...hope i can get the results.....Thank you somuch once again....

one question here. i left my previous company when my i-140 was pending? i can port my 140 if it is approved right? i couldnot get answer form previous employer whether it is approved or not also, as he is not willing to disclose anything

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AFAIK you can port your date if your i140 is approved if it is revoked after its approved its fine, it should not be withdrawn before approval. If you have the receipt number you can track it yourself. FOIA is the way to go as Nishant has suggested.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Friends both the news from Today will be headwinds for SOFAD.

1) The entrepreneur category is a great avenue for inviting and giving a chance to good and deserving people to get GC. From the SOFAD purpose though it increases ROW consumption and hence will surely reduce SOFAD, it will really depend on how effective this new sub - category will be and how much traction it will attract. This category is like Eb5 junior.

2) Resumption of EB1 premium processing, I remember Spec's 15 month analogy, this year we enjoyed the SOFAD due to slower pace, next year might well be backlog alleviation + back to regular pace so it will be significantly less SOFAD it is almost like debt payment time. I think there will be huge money to cash in by premium processing.
These developments must be being planned at the time of the Aug bulletin, they kind of reinforce the fact that Sep nay not be very optimistic. Also if both 1 & 2 take place they will significantly reduce the chance of BTM happening before May 2012 if it does not happen in Sep 2011.

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May be, USCIS delayed the EB1 I-140 on purpose?

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Originally Posted by veni001

ssvp22,
I agree with Spec, Only difference i could see between EB2-entrepreneur, when implemented, and EB5 is that EB5 require capital investment.

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Originally Posted by snathan

They will implement everything right away, if it will screw the IC category. But they are talking about allowing people to file I-485 when PD is not current for couple of years now...but still talking.

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snathan,
Even if they implement this right away, i would assume the new EB2-entrepreneur(s) from I&C should wait in the line, unless they have earlier PD from an approved EB3 application!

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Originally Posted by PlainSpeak

Ok i am in EB3 and I cannot port to EB2 because
1. I have 3 years bachelors degree
2. No company wants to file for GC .

Lost some offers because i am on EAD and not GC because company does not want to involve in the AC21 process at all.

Now i got another offer which will consider EAD and provide AC21 supporting document but will not do EB2.

Now i have 12 years of experience working in companies as an employee all this time. How can this new law help me an EB3.

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Besides this new rule there are ways you can try results are not guaranteed however all that will be lost is money only, if successful the outcome is priceless.

Refer to the following article on Murthy - http://www.murthy.com/news/ukmurtak.html

People with 3 year degrees only (Iam not sure if you have another degree after that in that case you should be good) can give it a try to apply in EB2. With your 12 years of experience its worth a try in Exceptional Ability Group (This is different from US masters or BS + 5), if your experience was anything less than 8-10 years the case would be likely denied for sure. All depends on how well the attorney can make a case. Try doing credits from any accredited university to cover the additional credits to make it equivalent to a 4 years US degree, followed by an educational evaluation. After that it should be very easy to get EB2. One of my colleagues had a EB3 PD of Sep 2002 unfortunately his I140 was denied in Oct 2007, now his PD is Dec 2007 EB3 and he is trying this way out.

Thank you Teddy for your reply....i dont have receipt number...so will follow the path nishant mentioned...

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

AFAIK you can port your date if your i140 is approved if it is revoked after its approved its fine, it should not be withdrawn before approval. If you have the receipt number you can track it yourself. FOIA is the way to go as Nishant has suggested.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by PlainSpeak

Ok i am in EB3 and I cannot port to EB2 because
1. I have 3 years bachelors degree
2. No company wants to file for GC .

Lost some offers because i am on EAD and not GC because company does not want to involve in the AC21 process at all.

Now i got another offer which will consider EAD and provide AC21 supporting document but will not do EB2.

Now i have 12 years of experience working in companies as an employee all this time. How can this new law help me an EB3.

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Besides this new rule there are ways you can try results are not guaranteed however all that will bee lost is money only, if successful the outcome is priceless.

Refer to the following article on Murthy - http://www.murthy.com/news/ukmurtak.html

People with 3 year degrees only (Iam not sure if you have another degree after that in that case you should be good) can give it a try to apply in EB2. With your 12 years of experience its worth a try in Exceptional Ability Group, if your experience was anything less than 8-10 years the case would be likely denied for sure. All depends on how well the attorney can make a case. Try doing credits from any accredited university to cover the additional credits to make it equivalent to a 4 years US degree, followed by an educational evaluation. After that it should be very easy to get EB2. One of my colleagues had a EB3 PD of Sep 2002 unfortunately his I140 was denied in Oct 2007, now his PD is Dec 2007 EB3 and he is trying this way out.

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Originally Posted by snathan

May be, USCIS delayed the EB1 I-140 on purpose?

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In reality really it’s the tough interpretation of the Kazarian memo that caused the delay. However bigger the delay more likely the applicants will go for premium, good for the applicant (lets be happy for all legal immigrants) as an avenue to speed it up, money for the agencies to do their great job faster, apologies to SOFAD :)

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Originally Posted by snathan

They will implement everything right away, if it will screw the IC category. But they are talking about allowing people to file I-485 when PD is not current for couple of years now...but still talking.

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Many of us waited for this kind of relief; sadly we must accept that this moved to the next level. There were talks of pre-registration many times it never took off. Lets hope for BTM in September else its next year in May.

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Originally Posted by GCFresher

Q, Are you saying that there is a possiblity of PD not moving at all from Apr 15 2007 in september

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Not at all. If there is BTM it would be in addition to the SFM of July 8th, 2007 in the Sep Bulletin.
p.s. - Yes, I am suggesting Jul 8th rather than 1st.

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Originally Posted by natvyas

In this economy It's difficult to find an employer who would pay for green card let alone finding an investor in ones idea
However, the premium processing for EB1 folks is going to be painful

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natvyas that's fortunately so untrue. Finding investor is actually very very easy. Having an idea is somewhat difficult. But more difficult is creating financially viable plan, the associated business model and then creating a prototype and finally proving that somebody will actually buy it. Not all investors would require all of it. But if you can do all of it then in all likelihood you will find more than one investors ready to fund your idea.

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Originally Posted by victorian

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On August 2, 2011, we mailed you a notice that we had registered this customer's new permanent resident status.
...
I guess this means that my case is still not approved? Anyone have any insight?

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There you go! Thats the decision in your favor! Congrats.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Lets hope for BTM in September else its next year in May.

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Teddy I am going to be in strong disagreement over this statement. I would suggest try working backwords from 2012 Spillover Season. How much will be the SOFAD - best and worst case? If that were to be fully utilized then how many new cases should be in and by what timeline they should be in to fully utilize SOFAD? The answers to these questions point to Q1 or 2012 as the latest by which any BTM must occur.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Teddy I am going to be in strong disagreement over this statement. I would suggest try working backwords from 2012 Spillover Season. How much will be the SOFAD - best and worst case? If that were to be fully utilized then how many new cases should be in and by what timeline they should be in to fully utilize SOFAD? The answers to these questions point to Q1 or 2012 as the latest by which any BTM must occur.

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Q let me explain this in greater detail.
- In September 2011 there are no quarterly restrictions in place so BTM could be as large as this years SOFAD to have a good buffer.
- Today we have had 2 inputs a) EB2 investor via b) I140 premium for Eb1. Both these factors especially the premium processing will give a huge boost to Eb1 processing. With this Q1 may not yield Eb1 SOFAD because of the backlog and newer cases coming much faster.
- Now it may only be in Q2 that some SOFAD is generated, refer to Specs analogy I think it may be fair to say that this was a 9 month year for Eb1 and next year may well be a 15 month year because of the I140 acceleration. So even at the end of Q2 we may not have that large a SOFAD, Eb1 using most of its cap.
- Probably by May there will be BTM it will be further diminished by porting as newer cases will come in. We have seen that newly filed cases are getting approved in 4 months almost consistently so May is really not late.
So in theory its really Sep 2011 or May 2012 (Diminished BTM). Also if 20K is the lower end of SOFAD expected next year then BTM if it happens in May when DOS has all the visibility may not be much. The push on I140 is good for all EB1 applicants happening at a very bad time atleast for SOFAD, we should accept it as part of streamlining and improvement though.

this didnt gain much ground but this idea was floated a couple of years ago. See the story on NPR http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...ryId=103769788

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Originally Posted by romanitaly

This is the first time I am hearing about this suggestion. I think it will be good if implemented. But there is a possibility that everyone in line for GC goes and buys a home just to get exempt from the quota. It does require to have a good credit history which may eliminate a few people new to the country.

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Teddy

Thanks. I dont disagree w all these things. But try working with numbers and work it backwords starting with 2012 spillover season.
Even if we go with 20K sofad calculations will look as follows:

20 k = leftover till Aug 2007 + pwmb + porting + 2 X M

where M = months beyond and including August

20 = 3 + (3+3) + 2 X M

so M = 5.5 months

That brings us to Mid January 2008

So if USCIS needs to clear a case in January, when should they have that case in? I think India/China and ROW have different standardsfor 485 processing. 6-9 months is minimum. Even if you go with 6 months, it means by end of Q2 i.e. Mar 2012 - Mid Jan 2008 has to be reached.

If USCIS does that then they are left with Zero cases in their hopper in Sep 2012 unless they move another couple of months between May - Sep 2012.

In my judgement they wont move so much on the edge of knife! At all times they would want to maintain a healthy buffer or work in progress inventory. Thats why rather than mid Jan 2008, the movement should at least be till Mar 2008 for EB2IC by Mar 2012.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Q let me explain this in greater detail.
- In September 2011 there are no quarterly restrictions in place so BTM could be as large as this years SOFAD to have a good buffer.
- Today we have had 2 inputs a) EB2 investor via b) I140 premium for Eb1. Both these factors especially the premium processing will give a huge boost to Eb1 processing. With this Q1 may not yield Eb1 SOFAD because of the backlog and newer cases coming much faster.
- Now it may only be in Q2 that some SOFAD is generated, refer to Specs analogy I think it may be fair to say that this was a 9 month year for Eb1 and next year may well be a 15 month year because of the I140 acceleration. So even at the end of Q2 we may not have that large a SOFAD, Eb1 using most of its cap.
- Probably by May there will be BTM it will be further diminished by porting as newer cases will come in. We have seen that newly filed cases are getting approved in 4 months almost consistently so May is really not late.
So in theory its really Sep 2011 or May 2012 (Diminished BTM). Also if 20K is the lower end of SOFAD expected next year then BTM if it happens in May when DOS has all the visibility may not be much. The push on I140 is good for all EB1 applicants happening at a very bad time atleast for SOFAD, we should accept it as part of streamlining and improvement though.

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T & Q,

This is a really interesting discussion you are having and you are both making extremely valid points.

I did think earlier that, with the numbers getting reasonably close to exhaustion, that September 2011 provided the perfect opportunity to advance the Cut Off Dates (COD) to bring in the next wave of applications.

The signs are that this opportunity is going to be wasted, despite the multiple advantages of doing so. Maybe we will still be surprised.

The fact that there are so many potential cases either just filed or that can be filed as the COD moves through July 2007 does complicate things, especially if we add on potential porting (although I don't think those numbers will be as large as some people suggest).

As for when BTM could happen - April at the earliest seems most likely to me. The reason I say that is that April is the first month of Q3, when the number of visas that can be used jumps from 54% to 81% of the total.

The other alternative would be to pseudo implement a quarterly spillover, something DOS has shied away from to date.

In hindsight, I wonder whether August/September 2008 represented BTM to pull in unfiled cases. The COD eventually moved to August 2006, having been April 2004 in July.

We didn't have Inventories in those days, but the first USCIS Inventories suggest that either large numbers of new cases with 2006 PDs were filed then, or that not many approvals were made for PDs in most of CY2006.

There doesn't appear to have been the prospect of enough visas being available to approve the number of existing cases to the end of July 2006, yet the COD was moved a very long way.

It seems such a wasted opportunity, if it doesn't happen in September. Possibly transparency is not always a good thing. These days we can estimate the numbers left and the Demand Data shows how unlikely there are to be sufficient numbers.

Nonetheless, I still believe the benefits of more transparency far out way any inadvertent down sides.

Spec

As always you make some great points.

Let me start with #3. I think that is unlikely. A BTM by deifnition should be quick (and clean). Clean means one that doesn't disrupt FIFO process. Movement in Jul or August hardly fits the bill.

I do like number 1 and before we go there ... let me ask this ... the quarterly numbers you quote ... are they minimum that DoS must do. Or the max DoS could do? Secondly, is it by law or by discretion of DoS? Once we establish that then only we can speak of it intelligently.

As per #2, I think it is extremely hard to achieve this without great coordination between USCIS and DoS in terms of information sharing and policy objectives. I think the 2007 fiasco was a cat and mouse between DoS and USCIS. while data transparency has increased, if I were DoS why would I simply trust the data and run on the edge of knife and then be whacked by congress or whoever for failing to use the quota? I would rather always maintain a healthy buffer of cases w USCIS and make USCIS work hard.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

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1) As for when BTM could happen - April at the earliest seems most likely to me. The reason I say that is that April is the first month of Q3, when the number of visas that can be used jumps from 54% to 81% of the total.

2) The other alternative would be to pseudo implement a quarterly spillover, something DOS has shied away from to date.

3) In hindsight, I wonder whether August/September 2008 represented BTM to pull in unfiled cases. The COD eventually moved to August 2006, having been April 2004 in July.

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Q,

Any news from your source, or is it too early to ask? Thanks!

Here is a silver lining if there is no BTM in Sept. If DOS does not build a sufficient pipeline, then we may find ourselves in a situation next Aug/Sept where we have visa numbers available for EB2IC but no qualified 485s to approve. This is a situation similar to 07/07 - either make the category current or increase PD by a long enough margin that CP cases cover the slack. No pipeline would mean a very interesting spillover season next year since I am confident that DOS/USCIS are not going to waste available EB2IC visa numbers - there will be too much hue and cry if that were to happen.

In any event, BTM doesn't really matter - SOFAD does. BTM is just a methodology for accommodating SOFAD. While BTM is important for people currently on the margins of PD since it gives you EAD/AP, it as such does not make any material long term difference to the EB2IC GC prospects.

and how is it that I have a higher reputation score (the green bars) than Q? :-)

Yes. BTM matters in two ways: 1) it provides people some security w EAD/AC21 etc. 2) It improves the chances that SOFAD Will not be wasted.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Here is a silver lining if there is no BTM in Sept. If DOS does not build a sufficient pipeline, then we may find ourselves in a situation next Aug/Sept where we have visa numbers available for EB2IC but no qualified 485s to approve. This is a situation similar to 07/07 - either make the category current or increase PD by a long enough margin that CP cases cover the slack. No pipeline would mean a very interesting spillover season next year since I am confident that DOS/USCIS are not going to waste available EB2IC visa numbers - there will be too much hue and cry if that were to happen.

In any event, BTM doesn't really matter - SOFAD does. BTM is just a methodology for accommodating SOFAD. While BTM is important for people currently on the margins of PD since it gives you EAD/AP, it as such does not make any material long term difference to the EB2IC GC prospects.

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LoL!! I retrogressed!

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Originally Posted by imdeng

and how is it that I have a higher reputations score (the green bars) than Q? :-)

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That is my point - DOS/USCIS will try their best to NOT waste visa numbers - there is too much transparency in numbers to do that these days. So, assuming that visa numbers will not be wasted, no BTM increases the likelihood of something interesting happening next SOFAD season.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Yes. BTM matters in two ways: 1) it provides people some security w EAD/AC21 etc. 2) It improves the chances that SOFAD Will not be wasted.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

That is my point - DOS/USCIS will try their best to NOT waste visa numbers - there is too much transparency in numbers to do that these days. So, assuming that visa numbers will not be wasted, no BTM increases the likelihood of something interesting happening next SOFAD season.

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If that is the case, DOS/USCIS will take huge intake(probably around mid of 2008) and will make retrogress in Oct. Bulletin.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec

As always you make some great points.

Let me start with #3. I think that is unlikely. A BTM by deifnition should be quick (and clean). Clean means one that doesn't disrupt FIFO process. Movement in Jul or August hardly fits the bill.

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I do think it was quick and clean. The dates advanced only in August/September 2008 and in October 2008 retrogressed to April 2003.

The fact that very few later cases appear to have been approved tends to say that FIFO was not disrupted. Rather, it was a ploy to allow filing. Maybe we differ on the definition of quick.

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I do like number 1 and before we go there ... let me ask this ... the quarterly numbers you quote ... are they minimum that DoS must do. Or the max DoS could do? Secondly, is it by law or by discretion of DoS? Once we establish that then only we can speak of it intelligently.

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Really good questions. Answers in reverse order.

It is the law, as laid down in the INA. INA 201 (a)(2) says:

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INA: ACT 201 - WORLDWIDE LEVEL OF IMMIGRATION

Sec. 201. [8 U.S.C. 1151]

(a) In general. - Exclusive of aliens described in subsection (b), aliens born in a foreign state or dependent area who may be issued immigrant visas or who may otherwise acquire the status of an alien lawfully admitted to the United States for permanent residence are limited to-

(2) employment-based immigrants described in section 203(b) (or who are admitted under section 211(a) on the basis of a prior issuance of a visa to their accompanying parent under section 203(b) ), in a number not to exceed in any fiscal year the number specified in subsection (d) for that year, and not to exceed in any of the first 3 quarters of any fiscal year 27 percent of the worldwide level under such subsection for all of such fiscal year;

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It represents a maximum and there is no corresponding minimum that must be allocated. The maximum is calculated on the total EB allocation and does not have to be prorated for individual Categories or Countries.

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As per #2, I think it is extremely hard to achieve this without great coordination between USCIS and DoS in terms of information sharing and policy objectives. I think the 2007 fiasco was a cat and mouse between DoS and USCIS. while data transparency has increased, if I were DoS why would I simply trust the data and run on the edge of knife and then be whacked by congress or whoever for failing to use the quota? I would rather always maintain a healthy buffer of cases w USCIS and make USCIS work hard.

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I agree. Ultimately, if USCIS request more visas than are available, DOS can stop issuing them. By all accounts, that happened last year in FB and the full quota was exhausted 2 weeks before the end of the FY. You won't find any disagreement from me on this point. I absolutely think they should have BTM in September.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Here is a silver lining if there is no BTM in Sept. If DOS does not build a sufficient pipeline, then we may find ourselves in a situation next Aug/Sept where we have visa numbers available for EB2IC but no qualified 485s to approve. This is a situation similar to 07/07 - either make the category current or increase PD by a long enough margin that CP cases cover the slack. No pipeline would mean a very interesting spillover season next year since I am confident that DOS/USCIS are not going to waste available EB2IC visa numbers - there will be too much hue and cry if that were to happen.

In any event, BTM doesn't really matter - SOFAD does. BTM is just a methodology for accommodating SOFAD. While BTM is important for people currently on the margins of PD since it gives you EAD/AP, it as such does not make any material long term difference to the EB2IC GC prospects.

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imdeng,

Good post.

A very good summation of what would have to happen in that situation. You clearly understand the ramifications of such a situation.

Making it Current or advancing a very long way at the end of the year would not generate any extra approvals and the visas would be wasted anyway.

I agree that DOS/USCIS will not allow that situation to happen. It would, in an instant, undo all the bridge building since 2007. I would imagine that DOS do now consult with USCIS on what production is possible.

I think that USCIS are quite capable of processing I-485 consistently in 4 months (or less) given the right motivation, so movement of COD in April/May gives enough time. As Q says, I think DOS would build some buffer into the numbers.

Movement in September 2011 would make these problems completely moot, which is why I had hoped for it so much.

From Rajiv Khanna's blog on Entrepreneur Visa

"In response to stakeholder feedback, USCIS has also updated existing FAQs to clarify that an H-1B beneficiary who is the sole owner of the petitioning company may establish a valid employer-employee relationship for the purposes of qualifying for an H-1B nonimmigrant visa – which is used by U.S. businesses to employ foreign workers in specialty occupations that require theoretical or technical expertise in specialized fields, such as science, engineering, and computer programming."

I hope they can BTM in September, but I doubt it.

Mr.CO does not want to build a pipeline and he wants to wait for the last minute to do it.

I will not be surprised if Mr.CO builds the pipeline in the last month.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

imdeng,

Good post.

A very good summation of what would have to happen in that situation. You clearly understand the ramifications of such a situation.

Making it Current or advancing a very long way at the end of the year would not generate any extra approvals and the visas would be wasted anyway.

I agree that DOS/USCIS will not allow that situation to happen. It would, in an instant, undo all the bridge building since 2007. I would imagine that DOS do now consult with USCIS on what production is possible.

I think that USCIS are quite capable of processing I-485 consistently in 4 months (or less) given the right motivation, so movement of COD in April/May gives enough time. As Q says, I think DOS would build some buffer into the numbers.

Movement in September 2011 would make these problems completely moot, which is why I had hoped for it so much.

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There's one possibility which Q has mentioned earlier. About BTM in October. That also removes burden on USCIS to do additional work during the finishing stages of FY 2011.

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

I hope they can BTM in September, but I doubt it.

Mr.CO does not want to build a pipeline and he wants to wait for the last minute to do it.

I will not be surprised if Mr.CO builds the pipeline in the last month.

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

I hope they can BTM in September, but I doubt it.

Mr.CO does not want to build a pipeline and he wants to wait for the last minute to do it.

I will not be surprised if Mr.CO builds the pipeline in the last month.

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If I'm not wrong the Mr. CO has mentioned that there will be movement once the date reaches Aug. Now the question is when will they reach Aug. Per the current calculations we'll hit June end by Sep 1 and then 1-2 weeks every month. Based on that we should see BTM or STM in first qtr next year.

I see 3 EB2-I approvals in Trackitt for August. One of them has PD which was current in August Bulletin. this one has PD of 3/9/07, so maybe our Victorian itself.

I also see 1 EB2-C approval in August, but his PD was current as of July Bulletin.

One EB1-B approval in August, and no EB1-C (our favorite bashing category :) ) so far.

slow going so far from trackitt in first two days. although we should of course give people time to update their profiles. also just like last time, they maybe slow to begin, notifications maybe down again, and so on.

But they are working.

Q, any news from your source?

Does Q have source from USCIS ?????

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Q, any news from your source?

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No, not from USCIS.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

I see 3 EB2-I approvals in Trackitt for August. One of them has PD which was current in August Bulletin. this one has PD of 3/9/07, so maybe our Victorian itself.

I also see 1 EB2-C approval in August, but his PD was current as of July Bulletin.

One EB1-B approval in August, and no EB1-C (our favorite bashing category :) ) so far.

slow going so far from trackitt in first two days. although we should of course give people time to update their profiles. also just like last time, they maybe slow to begin, notifications maybe down again, and so on.

But they are working.

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Usually by the weekend we will see some. Looks like some email batch job which only kicks in during weekend

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nnnnn123

Does Q have source from USCIS ?????

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Nah... he has a Baba in deep forests of amazon who predicts the number movement every time...;-)

One guy called USCIS and USCIS said that they are still working on the cases that became current in July. Because the number is huge, so they didn't finish processing yet. Several guys on mitbbs became current in July, but their cases are still pending.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

I see 3 EB2-I approvals in Trackitt for August. One of them has PD which was current in August Bulletin. this one has PD of 3/9/07, so maybe our Victorian itself.

I also see 1 EB2-C approval in August, but his PD was current as of July Bulletin.

One EB1-B approval in August, and no EB1-C (our favorite bashing category :) ) so far.

slow going so far from trackitt in first two days. although we should of course give people time to update their profiles. also just like last time, they maybe slow to begin, notifications maybe down again, and so on.

But they are working.

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Ajmeri Baba??? Lolz...I heard he resolves all life problems within 7 days!!!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by soggadu

Nah... he has a Baba in deep forests of amazon who predicts the number movement every time...;-)

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