EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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Originally Posted by NJMavarick

The EB2 folks who are still on EAD would have seen this as an opportunity to downgrade and maybe get the GC sooner. IMO, if the law allows it then they would do it and I do not see anything wrong with that. It does affect people like me but then at one point in time, we had a lot of upgrades which choked the EB2 line and what we see now is the reverse.

Even if the filing dates in EB3 move beyond April 2010, you would start seeing a lot of eb2 downgrades leading to a slow movement in EB3. This has been discussed in the past in the forum so would refrain from commenting further.

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I didn't talk about EB-3 India filing dates moving beyond 2010. My point was there can't be deluge of downgrades before July 1,2009. There may be a few hundred downgrade cases maximum till July 1,2009.

Unless you already had EB-3 I-140 approved, you have to go through new I-140 and link that I-140 to your existing EB-2 case. For people in April 2009 it doesn't make sense as they may get their green card in the next few months or so. So the dates moving(not moving) to July 1,2009 is not because of EB-2 to EB-3 downgrades.

The real surprise was CP numbers for EB-3 India.

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Originally Posted by kb2013

YTeleven, I initiated an almost irreversible downgrade to EB3 based on your strong conviction and views this forum. You still confident it is the right choice? The last thing that should happen to a EB2/3 applicant is getting pushed back another few years in this already excruciating wait.

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LOL :D (PD May 22,2009 EB2-I) I was in the same boat year ago when dates for EB3 moved past my PD. I was on the fence for few months and talking to other people on this forum and other decided to stay in EB2. Looking back if I had jumped to EB3 the month it passed my PD, I would have had my GC by now. Or at least my EAD/AP. Being in May 2009 sux, I feel like I'm neither here or there. This kind of sux, don't know how many more months I'll have to wait. Hopefully October bulletin moves beyond my date. What's more irritating is that 2 months before EB3 went past my PD I had my Perm approved. I was waiting to decide which category to choose. And when I decided to go EB2, very next month dates went past my PD. 2 yrs before that I had switched job, moved cross country because my new employer promised me to file my GC under EB2

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Originally Posted by jimmys

I didn't talk about EB-3 India filing dates moving beyond 2010. My point was there can't be deluge of downgrades before July 1,2009. There may be a few hundred downgrade cases maximum till July 1,2009.

Unless you already had EB-3 I-140 approved, you have to go through new I-140 and link that I-140 to your existing EB-2 case. For people in April 2009 it doesn't make sense as they may get their green card in the next few months or so. So the dates moving(not moving) to July 1,2009 is not because of EB-2 to EB-3 downgrades.

The real surprise was CP numbers for EB-3 India.

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Most of the negative sentiment against EB2 to EB3 downgrade is based on fear mongering by existing EB3 folks. Let's get real here - we have only seen a month of advance in EB2. So if someone has a PD in July 2009 or beyond, they can potentially save three to four years by moving to EB3. Trackitt is full of such people and for every person who did it in Trackitt, there are several others who are not active there. Downgrades are going to accelerate next FY especially if EB3 dates moved rapidly.

Iatiam

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Originally Posted by jimmys

I didn't talk about EB-3 India filing dates moving beyond 2010. My point was there can't be deluge of downgrades before July 1,2009. There may be a few hundred downgrade cases maximum till July 1,2009.

Unless you already had EB-3 I-140 approved, you have to go through new I-140 and link that I-140 to your existing EB-2 case. For people in April 2009 it doesn't make sense as they may get their green card in the next few months or so. So the dates moving(not moving) to July 1,2009 is not because of EB-2 to EB-3 downgrades.

The real surprise was CP numbers for EB-3 India.

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OK. I do agree that we cannot have a lot of EB2 folks before July 2009 who would be downgrading. I stand corrected. At the minimum, we should see July 2009. We will have to wait and see how the dates pan out after that.

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Originally Posted by iatiam

Most of the negative sentiment against EB2 to EB3 downgrade is based on fear mongering by existing EB3 folks. Let's get real here - we have only seen a month of advance in EB2. So if someone has a PD in July 2009 or beyond, they can potentially save three to four years by moving to EB3. Trackitt is full of such people and for every person who did it in Trackitt, there are several others who are not active there. Downgrades are going to accelerate next FY especially if EB3 dates moved rapidly.

Iatiam

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EB3 I for 2019 did not get anywhere near the 6000 + it got for 2017 and 2018, due to high demand from ROW. Also CP numbers were very high beyond CO's estimate and it also played a part in the delay. Downgrades did not impact EB3I movement for FY19.

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Originally Posted by NJMavarick

OK. I do agree that we cannot have a lot of EB2 folks before July 2009 who would be downgrading. I stand corrected. At the minimum, we should see July 2009. We will have to wait and see how the dates pan out after that.

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Year after year, with a lot of hope we look forward to October bulletins. Let's see what's in store this time around.

For the sake of everyone's sanity, I would request to keep politics/trump/legal-vs-illegal/etc out of this thread. You are welcome to discuss them in threads that specifically focus on those issues.

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Originally Posted by iatiam

That's Trump's MO. He knows these will be challenged in states and will find a way to the Supreme Court where a conservative bench will uphold it. Hopefully his DACA cancellation will also be upheld by the court and stem the flow of illegals. If Obama can bring an executive order, I don't understand why his predecessor can't cancel it.

Iatiam

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Originally Posted by lville

LOL :D (PD May 22,2009 EB2-I) I was in the same boat year ago when dates for EB3 moved past my PD. I was on the fence for few months and talking to other people on this forum and other decided to stay in EB2. Looking back if I had jumped to EB3 the month it passed my PD, I would have had my GC by now. Or at least my EAD/AP. Being in May 2009 sux, I feel like I'm neither here or there. This kind of sux, don't know how many more months I'll have to wait. Hopefully October bulletin moves beyond my date. What's more irritating is that 2 months before EB3 went past my PD I had my Perm approved. I was waiting to decide which category to choose. And when I decided to go EB2, very next month dates went past my PD. 2 yrs before that I had switched job, moved cross country because my new employer promised me to file my GC under EB2

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Mine is 05/15/09, I am waiting with bated breathe as well!!

My Priority date is September 2009, I have downgraded from EB2 to EB3, assuming that the line will move faster... what happens to my EB2 I 140? Is it still valid, can I use it if EB2 moves faster?

My EB2 priority date is September 2009 and never filed 485, but I have downgraded to EB3 assuming I can surpass the line but now EB3 is retrogressed! Now what happens to my EB2 I140? Can I still use it if EB2 dates current for FA or filing dates?

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Originally Posted by GCchaser

My EB2 priority date is September 2009 and never filed 485, but I have downgraded to EB3 assuming I can surpass the line but now EB3 is retrogressed! Now what happens to my EB2 I140? Can I still use it if EB2 dates current for FA or filing dates?

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Yes, both are two different applications for future employment. But you cannot file I-485 simultaneously in both.

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Originally Posted by IamGSN

Yes, both are two different applications for future employment. But you cannot file I-485 simultaneously in both.

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Thanks for your response, but my employer didn’t file new PERM for EB3, it is a straight downgrade from EB2 to EB3

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Originally Posted by GCchaser

My EB2 priority date is September 2009 and never filed 485, but I have downgraded to EB3 assuming I can surpass the line but now EB3 is retrogressed! Now what happens to my EB2 I140? Can I still use it if EB2 dates current for FA or filing dates?

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If you have downgraded to EB3, the filing dates (DF) for EB3I is 01APR10. Why can't you file for I485 and start the AC21 180 day clock. You can get EAD+AP right? Am I missing anything?
Reg EB2I: If I was the CO, I would not bother to move the DF for EB2. EB2 demand is well documented with only a few percentage missing (like your case) from demand. So he is not going to gain or lose anything by moving the DF for EB2I. So moving the DF for EB2I will be low on his priority. He eventually will have to move it as the FA dates move. IMHO, I think you made the right decision to downgrade to EB3I. In my opinion this will get you EAD+AP faster. However, for GC I am not sure whether EB2I or EB3I is the best option for you or for me (late Nov 2009 PD).

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Originally Posted by idliman

If you have downgraded to EB3, the filing dates (DF) for EB3I is 01APR10. Why can't you file for I485 and start the AC21 180 day clock. You can get EAD+AP right? Am I missing anything?
Reg EB2I: If I was the CO, I would not bother to move the DF for EB2. EB2 demand is well documented with only a few percentage missing (like your case) from demand. So he is not going to gain or lose anything by moving the DF for EB2I. So moving the DF for EB2I will be low on his priority. He eventually will have to move it as the FA dates move. IMHO, I think you made the right decision to downgrade to EB3I. In my opinion this will get you EAD+AP faster. However, for GC I am not sure whether EB2I or EB3I is the best option for you or for me (late Nov 2009 PD).

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They are not accepting DF yet. And not sure if they will going ahead.

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Originally Posted by idliman

If you have downgraded to EB3, the filing dates (DF) for EB3I is 01APR10. Why can't you file for I485 and start the AC21 180 day clock. You can get EAD+AP right? Am I missing anything?
Reg EB2I: If I was the CO, I would not bother to move the DF for EB2. EB2 demand is well documented with only a few percentage missing (like your case) from demand. So he is not going to gain or lose anything by moving the DF for EB2I. So moving the DF for EB2I will be low on his priority. He eventually will have to move it as the FA dates move. IMHO, I think you made the right decision to downgrade to EB3I. In my opinion this will get you EAD+AP faster. However, for GC I am not sure whether EB2I or EB3I is the best option for you or for me (late Nov 2009 PD).

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I guess they are not accepting the filing dates at this point!

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Originally Posted by jimmys

Year after year, with a lot of hope we look forward to October bulletins. Let's see what's in store this time around.

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True! Sadly, its a choice we all have made. With my date in 2011, it seems I may be looking anywhere between 4 to 8 years. <sigh>

The only way out is if S386 gets passed which at the moment looks like a long shot.

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Originally Posted by GCchaser

I guess they are not accepting the filing dates at this point!

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Ah. Thanks. Oct-2018 to Jan-2019 Visa bulletins accepted the DF. So you have a chance in the next bulletin. Lets hope for the best. Keep your Birth Certificate and other docs for I-485 ready. I hope the window opens at least for a month so that people can get EAD+AP. The same arguments hold. They already have most of the demand in EB3I. So accepting the DF is not going to help or hurt them. Its 50/50. Praying to the almighty might sway the odds in your favor.

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Originally Posted by idliman

Ah. Thanks. Oct-2018 to Jan-2019 Visa bulletins accepted the DF. So you have a chance in the next bulletin. Lets hope for the best. Keep your Birth Certificate and other docs for I-485 ready. I hope the window opens at least for a month so that people can get EAD+AP. The same arguments hold. They already have most of the demand in EB3I. So accepting the DF is not going to help or hurt them. Its 50/50. Praying to the almighty might sway the odds in your favor.

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Yeah, let’s hope for the best... how ever my original question was, since I have downgraded to EB3... what if dates move in EB2? Is my EB2 140 still valid?

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Originally Posted by GCchaser

Yeah, let’s hope for the best... how ever my original question was, since I have downgraded to EB3... what if dates move in EB2? Is my EB2 140 still valid?

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I understand that EB-3 downgrade process does not invalidate the prior EB-2 petition in the event the EB-3 downgrade is not successful. However, after successful porting I am unsure of EB-2 I140. It should remain unaffected. Only Chinese forums will have a definitive answer as they started doing this 2-3 years ago.

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Originally Posted by idliman

I understand that EB-3 downgrade process does not invalidate the prior EB-2 petition in the event the EB-3 downgrade is not successful. However, after successful porting I am unsure of EB-2 I140. It should remain unaffected. Only Chinese forums will have a definitive answer as they started doing this 2-3 years ago.

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I am not getting the right answer for this question, a friend told me one Chinese guy had this situation and he was able to use EB2...now I am repenting for downgrading

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Originally Posted by GCchaser

I am not getting the right answer for this question, a friend told me one Chinese guy had this situation and he was able to use EB2...now I am repenting for downgrading

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What matters is the I-140 receipt number referenced in the Supplement J form submitted along with I-485 application. You can have both EB2 and EB3 I-140's but which ever I-140 is used in the supplement will determine your category.

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Originally Posted by idliman

I understand that EB-3 downgrade process does not invalidate the prior EB-2 petition in the event the EB-3 downgrade is not successful. However, after successful porting I am unsure of EB-2 I140. It should remain unaffected. Only Chinese forums will have a definitive answer as they started doing this 2-3 years ago.

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My lawyer said You have to do amendment every time you switch categories (Eb2 to Eb3 to Eb2 to Eb3....). It is time consuming I believe.

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Originally Posted by lville

My lawyer said You have to do amendment every time you switch categories (Eb2 to Eb3 to Eb2 to Eb3....). It is time consuming I believe.

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Also the new USCIS interviews are not fun, they are asking lot of questions based on Supplement J so better be ready to justify such category changes. I attended the interview last month, USCIS officer was not quite convinced with our category change (EB2 to Eb3) and issued RFE so think about a scenario where somebody is changing from EB2 to EB3 and then back to EB2. It will be difficult to justify.

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Originally Posted by jimmar

Also the new USCIS interviews are not fun, they are asking lot of questions based on Supplement J so better be ready to justify such category changes. I attended the interview last month, USCIS officer was not quite convinced with our category change (EB2 to Eb3) and issued RFE so think about a scenario where somebody is changing from EB2 to EB3 and then back to EB2. It will be difficult to justify.

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Important to know. First time I am hearing this.

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Originally Posted by IamGSN

Important to know. First time I am hearing this.

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Yes, we were caught off guard too, i thought the interview is just a formality but was totally wrong about it. Out officer told us that their new directive is to reject the cases without RFE but lot of it is depended on the individual officer and how you present the case in the interview. We were lucky to get RFE and not rejection.

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Originally Posted by jimmar

Also the new USCIS interviews are not fun, they are asking lot of questions based on Supplement J so better be ready to justify such category changes. I attended the interview last month, USCIS officer was not quite convinced with our category change (EB2 to Eb3) and issued RFE so think about a scenario where somebody is changing from EB2 to EB3 and then back to EB2. It will be difficult to justify.

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That’s weird, I know a guy downgraded and got their GC without any issue... I also saw couple of posts in Trackitt

What is your PD? Your profile says it is in 2001. If that's the case, you should have your GC or citizenship by now

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Originally Posted by iatiam

What is your PD? Your profile says it is in 2001. If that's the case, you should have your GC or citizenship by now

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India, August, 2009. Filed I-485 in December 2018 (EB3) and attended interview in July 2019.

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Originally Posted by jimmar

India, August, 2009. Filed I-485 in December 2018 (EB3) and attended interview in July 2019.

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May I know the exact reason for your RFE? did they request the reason for downgrade? Are there any changes in your job role?

https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

Check-In with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim (8-16-19)
Following a review of the dates listed in the September 2019 visa bulletin, the entire EB-3 category has immediately been made “unavailable” for the remainder of FY2019. This means that the annual limits have been reached on these categories and additional numbers are thus unavailable until the beginning of the next fiscal year. This status is not limited to EB-3 China and EB-3 India. It also includes, effective immediately, the EB-3 Worldwide, EB-3 El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, EB-3 Mexico, Philippines, and EB-3 Vietnam categories.

In addition to this change, it is also important to flag that several other categories are listed as unavailable for the remainder of the fiscal year including the entirety of EB-4 and EB-4 Religious Workers categories, as well as EB-1 India. EB-1 China is not listed as unavailable but did retrogress 2.5 years due to increased demand.

Unless otherwise advised, applicants should still appear for a scheduled AOS interview. There is a possibility that an officer decides to not proceed with the interview and/or reschedules it for another time. If the interview moves forward and the application is deemed approvable, the officer will request a visa number and that request will subsequently be sent to Charlie Oppenheim’s “pending demand file” at the Department of State. Once this occurs, the visa number will be automatically authorized for use by USCIS, effective the first day of the month in which the applicant’s priority date becomes current.

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Originally Posted by IamGSN

https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

Check-In with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim (8-16-19)
Following a review of the dates listed in the September 2019 visa bulletin, the entire EB-3 category has immediately been made “unavailable” for the remainder of FY2019. This means that the annual limits have been reached on these categories and additional numbers are thus unavailable until the beginning of the next fiscal year. This status is not limited to EB-3 China and EB-3 India. It also includes, effective immediately, the EB-3 Worldwide, EB-3 El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, EB-3 Mexico, Philippines, and EB-3 Vietnam categories.

In addition to this change, it is also important to flag that several other categories are listed as unavailable for the remainder of the fiscal year including the entirety of EB-4 and EB-4 Religious Workers categories, as well as EB-1 India. EB-1 China is not listed as unavailable but did retrogress 2.5 years due to increased demand.

Unless otherwise advised, applicants should still appear for a scheduled AOS interview. There is a possibility that an officer decides to not proceed with the interview and/or reschedules it for another time. If the interview moves forward and the application is deemed approvable, the officer will request a visa number and that request will subsequently be sent to Charlie Oppenheim’s “pending demand file” at the Department of State. Once this occurs, the visa number will be automatically authorized for use by USCIS, effective the first day of the month in which the applicant’s priority date becomes current.

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Crap!!! It doesn't say much about EB2-I movement. Hopefully they publish it soon. Man hope it moves past May 23,2009

Hi All,

Anyone seeing any movement on 485 for EB2-I with PD's before May 2nd 2009 at Texas Service center? Seems like Nebraska center is starting to issue approvals for dates into May but TSC hasn't practically seen any movement as per trackitt.

Thanks
Almost

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Originally Posted by lville

Crap!!! It doesn't say much about EB2-I movement. Hopefully they publish it soon. Man hope it moves past May 23,2009

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2 weeks should be possible with the allocation for the new year. You are almost there. Good luck. I am next in line after you ;)

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Originally Posted by almost

Hi All,

Anyone seeing any movement on 485 for EB2-I with PD's before May 2nd 2009 at Texas Service center? Seems like Nebraska center is starting to issue approvals for dates into May but TSC hasn't practically seen any movement as per trackitt.

Thanks
Almost

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TSC has been slow looking at the trackitt data but you should be getting reading for the party. Anytime now.
Get greened and spend some greenbacks and do not forget to donate for a good cause. Time to celebrate. Cheers.

Anyone has updates on the proposed rule eliminating concurrent filing of visa petitions (I-140) and I-485? Originally this rule (1615-AC22) was supposed to go into effect next month (Sept 2019). The rejection rates for both I-485 and I-140 are about 8% in 2018. ROW was current for EB2 & EB3 till JUL-2019 bulletin. However, ROW EB1 is retrogressed. With not everyone opting for PP, there has to be a reduction in demand from ROW if this rule goes into effect. Needless to say this would also strongly discourage upgrade/downgrade of EB3/EB2 with a view to file for I485 and obtain ancillary benefits (EAD/AP).

Thanks for the response Shekhar. It has been 10+ yrs as of now and there is no longing for a celebration anymore.... At this point I just want this to be over with so that I can move on with the next phase of plans for life :).
I do however intend to do my fair share of additional charity as you have suggested. Wish you the best of luck as well .......... your date doesn't seem to be that far off

I've updated the PERM data in the FACTS & DATA section with the latest FY2019 Q3 figures.

https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

Check in with Charlie on 8/16

Anyone has any idea what this means? Can they deny next EAD extension if we travel on AP?

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...orParolees.pdf

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Originally Posted by paramjit74

Anyone has any idea what this means? Can they deny next EAD extension if we travel on AP?

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...orParolees.pdf

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Just read Background and you would know the answer:

Certain foreign nationals may be paroled into the United States under INA 212(d)(5) for urgent humanitarian reasons or significant public benefit. USCIS has discretion to grant these foreign nationals employment authorization. Applicants are not entitled to employment authorization. USCIS determines whether to grant discretionary employment authorization on a case-by-case basis, taking into account all factors and considering the totality of the circumstances of each individual case.