Definitely not for EB3-I - CO already has demand data till 01APR2010 between the CP filings, downgrades and original EB3-I folksQuote:
Originally Posted by IamGSN
It’ll be interesting to see where FAD returns to in October
Printable View
Definitely not for EB3-I - CO already has demand data till 01APR2010 between the CP filings, downgrades and original EB3-I folksQuote:
Originally Posted by IamGSN
It’ll be interesting to see where FAD returns to in October
I concur;Quote:
Originally Posted by ferric
For EB3I:
Starting with Jan-2019 bulletin, the EB3I Filing dates are in 01APR2010. This is ahead of the FA dates by 10 months or so. So Mr. CO has good idea of demand in EB3I.
For EB2I:
EB2I filing dates are at 01JUN2009. However, the FA dates went to 01MAY2010 in April-2012 visa bulletin. He does not have the delta (change in demand) for EB2I since April-2012. He may move the DF for EB2I beyond 01JUL2009. EB2I DF went to 01JUL2009 in 2015, 2016.
Is there a way to know how many EB3I applicants are pending till 01JUL09?
EB3I reached 01JAN09 in Aug-2018. In one year, EB3I dates have moved to 01JUL09 (with retrogression). In other words a total of 2800 GCs were consumed by EB3I applicants with PDs in the first 6 months of 2009. Because the dates were moved gradually, I would expect most original EB3I applicants to have obtained their GCs by now. I would not think more than 500 EB3I applicants with PDs in first half of 2009 are still waiting. With this data, it can be extrapolated that there will be only another 2800 EB3I applicants in the second half of 2009.
The last known inventory for EB2I from May09 to Dec09 is about 9000. It is three times the EB3I number based on the trend we saw in the last year. With the downward porting from EB2I to EB3I, I think we say conservatively that the combined dates will reach somewhere in SEPT2009 by the end of next year without considering any spillover. Any counter arguments?
Counter Arguments from top of my head: One - EB3I CP cases are exploding (see Spec's posts) and are consuming much of the quota leaving little for AOS cases. Two - for all the talk of downgrades, I feel like most folks in EB2I with 2009 PDs with EADs are going to stick it out. Surely July/Aug/Sept 2009 which are within reach in couple of years. Whether EB3I will run far ahead of EB2I will depend upon the balance of the two above and I have no idea how these numbers will stack up.
Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
idleman,Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
You are forced to make assumptions, for lack of data.
The problem is that you can't really test whether the assumptions hold true.
Implicitly, you've made an assumption that :
a) EB3-I has only received 2.8k approvals in FY2019.
b) That those approvals only came from PD Jan-Jun 2009.
I can't tell you whether they are good assumptions or not.
Trackitt approvals (which may not be a very good data source this year) for EB3-I show that 90% of approvals are for PD years prior to 2009.
This may not be altogether surprising, the processing time for a new I-485 is anywhere from 8 to 12 months.
I'm not criticizing - just pointing out how difficult it is.
Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Rather than going through the interview process and downgrade- people with EAD’s in May, June, July, 2009 may stay in EB2 and wait for GC to arrive in the mail. I find this argument valid
Spec,
Is there any way to predict the number of CP cases for EB3-I who can theoretically file with PD before Jul 2009?
It sounds like it’ll be 50/50 between CP and AOS this year? 1400 CP (assuming Jul is another 200 and retrogression in Aug/Sep) and 1400 AOS.
Don't leave out us Oct 2009 folks. On EAD since 2012 and sticking it out instead of moving queues :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
I did not look at trackitt data. I went back and checked. The following are the EB2I and EB3I approvals in the last year.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
EB3I Approvals Trend
PDs 2006 and before ----- 5%
2007 ------------------- 29%
2008 ------------------- 56%
2009 ------------------- 10%
EB2I Approvals Trend
PDs 2006 and before ----- 6%
2007 -------------------- 6%
2008 ------------------- 18%
2009 ------------------- 71%
My assumptions were totally incorrect. The approval of EB3I with PDs in 2009 had barely started. EB3I PD of 01JAN09 got FA current only in Aug-2018. So most of the EB3I pending applicants with PDs 2009 had their I485s in process for less than a year. With interviews and slowness of USCIS, they should start getting approvals after 300 days or so.
I would still think that Pending EB3I folks in 2009 are still less than 1/3rd of EB2I folks. EB3I folks up to 01JUL2007 got their EADs; Also if I was EB3I, I would have gone through the pain of seeing PDs move by a week every month for the PDs 2001 to 2005. This would have forced me to get into EB2I queue. This makes me to think positively that EB3I FA will somehow reach beyond 01JAN10 before getting retrogressed as more downward porting from EB2I happens. The variable that we don't know is the internal pending inventory data for EB3I that only Mr. CO has access to.
It is good to know that most of the EB2I applicants are staying put and waiting for their GCs to arrive by mail. I guess this is a personal decision based on the relative stability of their jobs.
I would be glad to hear the thoughts of 2009 EB3I applicants in this forum. They would have spent most time analyzing their situation and their perspective might be different from folks who spent most of their time on EB2I queue.
Dear Experts,
I am working in an industry which is on the downtrend with layoffs every quarter, my skills for which I had applied my labor are getting irrelevant.
Priority date EB2I, Dec 2009 and moved to a different job (from original PERM/I-140) using EAD.
At this point considering the downward trend in the industry that I currently work for I am looking for a change in field.
I have a few questions:
- If my PERM is for e.g. applied for C++ and I get a job in Java and finance. Will there be any issues if I change my job on EAD with file for a new supplement J ?
- Realistically when do you see EB2I PD Dec 2009 getting cleared.
- Is it worth considering my situation to downgrade to EB3 with better chances of greened earlier ? What will be the risk involved.
Any guidance to help my situation will be greatly appreciated.
Sounds like what our industry is going through now. The key is how your attorney is going to argue for same or similar category justification. If the SOC codes of the H1B are the same that would be good. But you had joined directly on EAD. So you need to somehow meet the same or similar category justification. To be safe, I would also apply for a new PERM in your new employer / new job description; You can apply in EB2 itself and then when the time comes, because you have original PERM with the same employer you can downgraded to EB3 if needed.Quote:
Originally Posted by mesimba
Dec2009 EB2I is very close to my PD. Read the discussions above on possible movements; If you want to predict safely, I would say you will get your GC before OCT2022 (three years from now). The optimistic prediction will be OCT2021; However, I believe that EB3I will be current for your PD by next summer (by OCT202) subject to retrogression; The consensus seems to be that EB2I will clear 2009 in 2 to 3 years. If you are mentally prepared for the worst, you will not be disappointed.
If you have that many questions about job description and justification, you should consider a new PERM. You have enough time to get a new PERM approved before your PD becomes current. I cannot comment on the technicalities of your job as I am not familiar with your industry. Good luck.
Thank you so much!Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
USCIS does not care about the content of your job (like Java vs C++) - and the job description can be written (read spinned) to how you want it to sound like. USCIS is also okay with job progression. What really matters is the job SOC codes. If they are same or similar then that should work out okay for AC21 job portability purposes. In my specific case, I moved from to a different job - but both were same SOC code in the same industry, similar organizations - so the AC21 process (I485J) was easier.
Dec 2009 can be long wait. Worst case scenario - very broadly: next year is May+June+Part July 2009. Year after is Part July + Aug + Sep, Year after that is Oct+Nov+Dec. So you are looking at three years. Give or take 6 months.
Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
imdeng: For codes which changed since 2009, do USCIS compare and see ?Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Thanks!
I don't have any personal insight into this. I would assume that for any SOC classification change there is a before -> after mapping available - but this is kinda specific to your SOC classification.
Quote:
Originally Posted by karukon
It is Aug 14th and no visa bulletin yet?
Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...mber-2019.html
EB2- 8th May,2009.
EB1-unavailable
EB3 -1st July 2005
Thanks.Quote:
Originally Posted by canada
EB1IFA ==> U
EB2IFA ==> +6 Days
EB3IFA ==> -184 Days
No change in DF for India (EB1, EB2 & EB3). So in the next year the DF are expected to progress from 22FEB17 (EB1), 08MAY09 (EB2) and 01JUL09 (EB3).
Actually EB3 India was retrogressed by another 6 months, what is CO trying to say in Bulletin ? Will the FA date be imposed back to 01JUL2009 for EB3 India?Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
============== Bulletine CO Comments
India – Employment First (E1) and Third Preferences (E3): Despite the earlier retrogression of the India E1 and E3 final action dates, USCIS demand for adjustment of status applicants with priority dates earlier than those dates remained excessive. Therefore, it was necessary to make the India E1 final action date “Unavailable” earlier in July, and it will remain so for the remainder of FY-2019. The India Employment Third preference date has been retrogressed and that date will be imposed immediately.
It is likely that corrective action will also be required for other preferences prior to the end of the fiscal year.
Numbers will once again be available for applicants in the above mentioned preferences beginning October 1, 2019 under the FY-2020 annual numerical limitations. Every effort will be made to return these final action dates to (at least) the dates which had originally been announced for August.
=============================
seems, there is no SO got applied to this quarter and end of the FY. I thought Eb2 2009 would be cleared by end of FY, my estimates got wrong.
Sounds like there are still people waiting for visa numbers between 2006-2009 in EB3-I
I have a feeling it won’t move back to July 2009 - the EB3I CP folks are activating really old (2006/7/8) petitions and using 4 numbers per applicant, not sure if that trend will continue but might lead CO to not move dates back to July 2009.
Quote:
Originally Posted by IamGSN
Quote:
Originally Posted by vbollu
I wish your predictions were right but sadly EB2 will move 7-10 days per visa bulletin, and that’s being optimistic. Conservatively 3-6 days
Any chance EB2-I will at least advance past May 22, 09 soon ? It’s going to be new year and new quota in 2020, so hoping it at least advances a week or more at a time and not crawl like 3 days.Quote:
Originally Posted by canada
Last year the dates moved by 11 days with new quota; the year before the dates moved by 23 days with new quota. So going by that trend, the dates should move between a week to two by October 15. Fingers crossed. Actually fingers, toes, legs, hands ...you name it all crossed. 10 years is a long wait. I agree there are others in worse situation, but 10 years is on an average 25% of your work life. :mad:Quote:
Originally Posted by lville
I can only hope that the filing date moves to mid-July 09 within the first quarter of the new FY. I am July 7, 09 (EB2), so while it's wishful thinking to expect to become current in this FY, being able to file 485 would be a huge relief! Oh well...Quote:
Originally Posted by vyruss
I am on the same boat and hoping for the same, as EB3-I is dead for now.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLureoftheGreen
EB3I is not dead. It will bounce back to a July 09 date beginning October.Quote:
Originally Posted by IamGSN
Glad to hear everyone's comments and frustrations. Sometimes this forum feels like only the "toppers" are posting and the "back benchers" are not encouraged OR afraid because of the higher standards here.Quote:
Originally Posted by ferric
Looking at the approval trend in trackitt, EB3I 2009 applicants barely got any approval (less than 10% of total). So almost the entire 2009 EB3I that was current is still waiting for visas. I also agree with your view that more people in India (typically EB3I) are getting eligible to do CP. One of my friends in India decided not to pursue GC even though his company supported him to do it.
Usually there is some election year magic. I wish for that next year. Otherwise it is going to be the story of no spillover and another 2-3 years to clear 2009. The immigration system is so complex that no one can predict the cascading effects. I for one supported Obama admin's streamlining of GCs process till it systematically reduced the Spillover to India. It took about 2 or 3 years for that to play out. Maybe the "Inadmissability on Public Charge" rule might turnout to be positive. So we have to wait and see how the new Public Charge rule plays out. It is too early to say anything about its impacts now.
How does the CP process work? What are the benefits or disadvantages with it? Can you shift from non-CP to CP?Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
I got my 485 interview done yesterday , is this a indication that EB3-I dates will move or are they just trying to clear the desk , since interview is mandatory nowadays.
My pd is 03/2010 , I downgraded this Jan from EB2.
My IO gave a standard reply that dates will move in October.
Just out of curiosity-How can someone have an interview when the dates are not current. Can you please explain? ThanksQuote:
Originally Posted by maverickwild
I am as surprised as you are, has anyone in the forum got a interview call recently without being current?Quote:
Originally Posted by canada
I saw few cases in trackitt, so it’s not unusual but curious to see if there is a trend here .
Yes. Many of my friends got the interviews done even before the dates are current. It’s the norm.Quote:
Originally Posted by maverickwild
I wish for that too! However, the reason for the dates being retrogressed seems to be a deluge of downgrades in which case I am not really sure if that will happen. The forecast seems gloomy!Quote:
Originally Posted by vyruss
Two positive things in the Sep Bulletin.Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
This year EB got almost 2k extra GC's. it is 141.9K instead of 140K.
" The fiscal year 2019 limit for employment-based preference immigrants calculated under INA 201 is 141,918."
Last three months consular processing got increased by 50% and then it started cooling down. Hope this will continue.
"There has been a combination of a dramatic change in the USCIS demand pattern for adjustment of status applicants during July, and a larger than anticipated return of unused numbers which had been provided to consular offices for July use."
Bad News is that about dates moving back. CO said he will move dates back to August bulletin dates instead of July bulletin dates.
"Numbers will once again be available for applicants in the above mentioned preferences beginning October 1, 2019 under the FY-2020 annual numerical limitations. Every effort will be made to return these final action dates to (at least) the dates which had originally been announced for August. "
True that. Plus FB might provide some SO this year. As Spec showed once, the numbers would be limited. But I really hope the public charge provision will reduce the FB consumption even further. Overall, the future doesn't look as bad as it used to be in the Obama days when dates rarely moved. Add to it the potential for a 2020 recession, we might see some healthy movement next FY.Quote:
Originally Posted by redsox2009
Iatiam
Deluge of downgrades? Does it mean people who got their GC in EB2 are downgrading to get GC in EB-3? Only in Feb 2019 VB, EB-3 India took over EB-2 India. That time EB-2 was already in April 2009. So, how many EB-2 Indians between April 2009 - Jun 2009 are downgrading to EB-3 that's causing a deluge? There may be many downgrading in late 2009 and early 2010.Quote:
Originally Posted by NJMavarick
If anything that's going to prevent EB-3 India to move forward is, unknown CP cases. As already pointed out by Spec or Q earlier, the CP numbers for EB-3 India is unusually high this year. Since we don't know how many are still pending for CP in EB-3 2008/2009, it might negatively affect EB-3 India movement. To return back to July 1,2009 downgrades are not a significant problem,IMO.
A lot are called for interview even when their dates are not current. I was one of them. I was called for interview about 4 months ago. The IO told me since my dates are not current he can't issue the visa on the spot. However, he told me I will get my visa as soon as my PD becomes current.Quote:
Originally Posted by maverickwild
YTeleven, I initiated an almost irreversible downgrade to EB3 based on your strong conviction and views this forum. You still confident it is the right choice? The last thing that should happen to a EB2/3 applicant is getting pushed back another few years in this already excruciating wait.Quote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven
The EB2 folks who are still on EAD would have seen this as an opportunity to downgrade and maybe get the GC sooner. IMO, if the law allows it then they would do it and I do not see anything wrong with that. It does affect people like me but then at one point in time, we had a lot of upgrades which choked the EB2 line and what we see now is the reverse.Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmys
Even if the filing dates in EB3 move beyond April 2010, you would start seeing a lot of eb2 downgrades leading to a slow movement in EB3. This has been discussed in the past in the forum so would refrain from commenting further.