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Call up USCIS and ask them what's going on. Ask for a supervisor if the rep isn't able to give you a good answer. If all else fails, raise a Service request for USCIS error. If the appointment is for some time in September make sure to get it done asap so you may still have a chance to get approval.Quote:
Originally Posted by SG2020
Folks on this forum - you have probably heard that the visa numbers for this FY have been used in EB1 and EB2.
Wondering if we have any number crunchers who can guestimate the SO for the next year and the retrogression for Oct 2022 (with and without any SO)?
Stunning sequence of events. I guess my FO transfer was too late. Who knows when my date will be current again.. hopefully it is this calendar year but I wouldn't be surprised if I needed to wait a couple more years :(Quote:
Originally Posted by gsingh
DoS helped with an actual Oct bulletin .. as it seems they don't want guestimates !!
Dates moved back 2012 April.
I don't know if this will be updated in Nov, but they haven't given any such indication.
There are close to 60k inventory in eb2, eb3. It is safe to assume that most of these are EB india cases. With 6k annual processing, it may take upto 10 years to clear till 1Jan 2015. I want to wish that there is horizontal spillover each year, but ROW and EB1 demand this year doesn't indicate that.
Considering some additional visas here and there, I feel it will take 6-9 years to clear EB2, EB3 India till Jan1 2015. There will be some new filers on top of that inventory.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gsingh
Ha.. Do you have an idea on the movement in the upcoming months? Could the dates potentially retrogress further or can we assume that DOS/USCIS did their math right.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sebiswaiting
I missed the FAD by 16 days. Trying to get a sense if I will be current in a couple of months or could it a year or more ?
What a mess the last 2 years have been. USCIS has had no regard of the PD or the RD while processing the cases.
Help needed - Folks my PD is sep 2011, latest 485 filing was EB3 in 2021, i didn't interfile and this month gave up hope waiting in EB3 and planned on interfiling to EB2, is it a sensible move, pls advise. it is going to be 20 years in this country and following rules!!!! so frustrated with the overall immigration process as everyone else visiting this forum. Pls advise
I don't think that the dates will retrogress further. This is considering that they have idea about pending inventory.
If your PD is between FD and FAD, then I feel you should be current before Oct 2023. But again this is just guess work.
Also considering the low number of visas, I hope they are able to clear the the files till the FAD.
I saw somewhere that there is approx 50-60k spillover, but that may not be significant for EB2, EB3 INDIA, considering EB1 usage and EB2/3 ROW demand is high. So minimal vertical/horizontal spillover.
BTW.. our PD is Dec 2014, missed the earlier dates by 19 days or so!! And now we have to wait for many years before we can file 485.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gsingh
From https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gre...of-status-faqsQuote:
Originally Posted by Sebiswaiting
It appears, USCIS is expecting 60,000 spillover to the EB Categories. That translates to 17160 green cards for EB1,2,3 and 4260 for EB4 and EB5. If the 7% country quota is applied then, 1201 extra green cards per category for EB1,2,3. Adding the regular 2800 quota, EB2 and EB2 I will stand to have 4000 GC for FY2023. Assuming horizontal and vertical spillover of about 90% and 80% for EB2I from EB2 row & EB1, approximately 27k spillover should come to EB2 and about 15k to EB3I. I haven?t factored any spillover from EB4 and EB5 and assumed there will only be horizontal spillover for EB3.
That must be very disheartening. I am assuming your underlying petition is in EB3 because if it is in EB2, you still have time to file until end of this month or until USCIS updates the Sept VB. Filling date in EB2 is Jan 2015.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sebiswaiting
Are the 1201 extra visas from the FB spillover available at the start of the FY ? I believe the horizontal and vertical SP from other EB categories wait until Q4. Is that understanding correct ?Quote:
Originally Posted by android09
EB2, but date is in 3rd week of dec. Current FAD is Dec1.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gsingh
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sebiswaiting
Yes, the 1201 extra cards are available right away for USCIS to assign to cases. Whether they do or decide to split it over quarters, I don?t know.Quote:
Originally Posted by gsingh
I hope that EB2I EB3I gets such numbers, but highly unlikely. This year, available count was much higher, and yet EB1 got over in Sept, so no vertical spillover. Similarly ROW demand was super high in EB3 causing EB3I to get 12.7k slots. So with less number of total visa available in 23, EB3 would get much less than what you are considering .
Not trying to portray a pessimistic view here, but historical data doesn't show a rosy picture.
Consider this, in pre covid years ..2019, 2018 etc all, EB2 I wasn't getting any significant vertical or horizontal spillover.. as India EB1 applications are usually higher than annual quota , which is why there was a backlog in EB1 till 2020.
Quote:
Originally Posted by android09
Yes that's the final action date.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sebiswaiting
I thought you said you have to wait to even file a 485.
I believe they split the available number so that visas are available through out the year.Quote:
Originally Posted by android09
Yes, we still need to wait. That's because USCIS is considering FAD and not FD.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gsingh
USCIS not honoring the FD? Strange. Didn't know thatQuote:
Originally Posted by Sebiswaiting
What makes you think there was no vertical spillover from EB1 to EB2 this year? According to court filing the annul estimated limit for EB2 I is 60K. Total numbers in EB2 for FY 2022 is 80K. So by that logic ROW + China only used 20K EB2 Visas. I do believe there was a vertical spillover to EB2 of around 20-25K. EB1 was backlogged before the pandemic so I think the excess numbers went to the backdated candidates. After two years I would assume all backdated folks have been greened and next year EB1 usage may be around 40-45K. It is an assumption yes, but I don't think it's unrealistic. EB3 demand may be high as the difference between FAD vs FD for Philippines is 2 years. So EB3 will see a good amount of CP as this year. EB3I probably will get the bare minimum plus a couple thousand extra if lucky. However if the recession kicks in all bets are off. There will be an immediate slow down in ROW numbers.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sebiswaiting
What I meant is that EB1 consumed higher than usual and got used up in Sept and I am not expecting any vertical spillover this year.
As you told, EB1 consumed close to 60k (based on 20k spillover that you mentioned).
This year with 200k EB1 gets close to 60k.
So EB1 in 2023 fiscal may consume what is available.
You are also right that there was EB1 backlog. But I can't say if the backlog was cleared this year or last year. If the bulk of backlog was cleared last year, then most of 60k eb1 are new demand and potentially new normal.
Usual EB1 quota is 40k, so usual EB1 demand was higher than 40k pre covid, and as per some of the lawyers demand for EB1 has increased since.
Plus they consumed all EB1 by Sept 7, so application for the last 3 weeks will add to the count.
Having said that, I do wish EB2 gets more...my PD is 3rd week of Dec 2014, and I do hope for any spillover.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vsivarama
Hi all -
Wanted to share my situation
Priority Date: 05/10/2010 EB2
Changed Job: Mar 2020
New employer filed in EB3
Finally received GC for me and my wife.
But received RFE for my kid for submitting copies of H4 and I-94 again. Already replied and waiting for decision.
Thank you all for the discssions and suggestions on this forum. Good Luck all.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Positive
Well, I think I have now seen it all.
I went for my second biometrics last week. I asked them why I was asked to do biometrics again and the supervisor at the site couldn't find any record of my biometrics taken in September 2021! I had the stamped documents - so they tried very hard to figure out what happened but couldn't come up with an explanation.
When I had done the biometrics in 2021 September, the person doing it was Asian (this is in Oakland, CA). I couldn't understand a single word she was saying and she was getting frustrated that I was unable to understand her directions. She was not able to get good prints for 3 fingers. She even shouted at me at one point. Anyway, my wife's biometrics went fine and we came home. Now I believe that she never entered my biometrics in the system! There is just no other explanation. I am super pissed. This time, the supervisor confirmed my biometrics were received and my status updated by the time I got home. Let's see if the background check happens quickly and if my application can be processed this month or in October. My PD is May 2011 and I had downgraded to EB3 in Nov 2020. Didn't interfile back to EB2 based on Fragomen's advice. I have already replied to the medical/birth/marriage RFE in July. Let's see how long it takes now that my biometrics are finally there after a year!
Ugh.
Nov 2022 VB came out. No change on dates from last month. USCIS confirmed that ROW demand is so high that they may need to establish FAD for ROW. This will result in zero horizontal spillover, and extremely limited vertical spillover (if any) to India backlog.
Below text is from Nov VB.
"Increased demand in the Employment Second category may necessitate the establishment of a worldwide final action date in the coming months to hold number use within the maximum allowed under the Fiscal Year 2023 annual limit. This situation will be continually monitored, and any necessary adjustments will be made accordingly."
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sebiswaiting
Yes, I agree the news appears bleak. One thing that USCIS does a very poor job at is trend analysis, so there is always hope. Let's see if they release the numbers related to ROW which would give us a more clearer picture. With recession looming in 2023 the situation can change pretty quick. At this time, I would say do not have any positive or negative hopes as far as the movement is concerned as the situation is still very fluid. Do not expect any changes in Dec bulletin either. Wish you all the best!Quote:
Originally Posted by Sebiswaiting
Agreed buddy.
I and wife both changed job last year..each
twice 😁, as didn't want to block career due to GC uncertainties. Our PD are Dec 2014 and June 2015.
Our current orgs are initiating GC just now!! By the time our i140 is approved, it will be another 2 years due to current DoL processing speed.
Regarding ROW, demand for NIW EB2 seems suddenly increasing since this year. Iran with highest and Brazil next are leading demand there.
Recession is surely looming, but employment rate is still robust. Also NIW cases may not be impacted by receiion, considering they don't need job offer even though it is EMPlOYMENT based category 2.
I do hope recession, pandemic doesn't come though.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vsivarama
Folks, Gurus
I am visiting this forum after a while (because my application was taking forever to process and I decided to take a break from the follow-up process). Briefly my case is as follows - EB2 (PD August 2010), applied in Nov, 2020, got EAD in February, 2022. Case was initially w Nebraska SC, then transferred to NBC in July 2022. Then Medical RFE request came in Aug 2022, so I was finally excited. They asked me to send the RFE response ASAP, so that they can consider my application for 2022 quota before financial years ends on September 30th. I did sent them the RFE response immediately. After all this, now the status shows up as - Case Remains Pending - We are temporarily pausing work on your application because an immigrant visa number is not immediately available to you. Once an immigrant visa number becomes immediately available to you, we will resume processing of your application.
Can someone please explain, what happens next? Does it mean, that they could not allocate number for me in the last FY and now I have to wait for the visa numbers in this FY. If that is the case, then why the visa numbers are still not available. The FY started already. How soon I can get the GC finally. I have already submitted my service request to the local senator and they assured me that they are submitting their request to USCIS.
My wife strangely have not received the Medical RFE yet. The senator office told us that her case would be out of average processing time on 23rd October so I have to wait till that date to request them for an escalation. How soon she is likely to receive RFE for medical?
Please let me know whatever your thoughts are. What more I shall I do here? I have heard about Ombudsman request process. Shall I try for that? Let me know please. Thank you as always.
Optimista - looking at your date - you should not be worried about visa availability. Now you are totally in the clear from that angle. Something else must be going on here. So you need an attorney or a senator rooting for you. They will be helpful getting some info what's going on here.Quote:
Originally Posted by optimista
@qesehmk, Do you see any prospect of Eb2-Dec-2013 getting adjudicated by Sep-30-2023? Thanks in advance for your response...
Thanks
Leo - I don't do manual calculations anymore. But my gut feel is yes it should be possible.Quote:
Originally Posted by LeoAugust
Thanks @qesehmk for your response. It gives a good feeling and confident listening from you. The way news coming around abt ROW/EB1C, I thought it is impossible to get through by Sep-30-2023.Thanks again.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
You are welcome. To be double sure - use WhereismyGC.Quote:
Originally Posted by LeoAugust
Q, thank you for your response. I got a recent update that fingerprints which were taken a while ago (in August last year) are now applied to my case. Is that a positive sign? Honestly, even after researching this, I am not getting a clear information on whether this is a positive step and how soon after this step, I should be getting my green card. It would help, if you can provide me some input on this. Thanks.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I can't say for sure. My feeling is it can't hurt. But what I have done this year that I am very proud of and may answer you question is developing a kind of AI approach to parsing and correlating such status changes on cases across thousands of cases and tell you what your next likely case steps are.Quote:
Originally Posted by optimista
This is still not perfect but can give you pretty damn idea what you can expect next .... check at www.whereismygc.com ...
Thanks Sure.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
@qesehmk I joined whereismygc. Very good one... I think I should be able to ask my doubts there. Thanks for your guidance...Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I am glad you liked it. I have spent considerable time and energy building WhereismyGC as a meaningful and useful service.Quote:
Originally Posted by LeoAugust
Hi Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I had a quick question in case you can look in to it. So I had raised the request with local senator's office and they got the following response from USCIS:
"His case was transferred to the San Diego Field Office for review and adjudication. At the time of adjudication for his application, the maximum level of visa numbers available for Employment First (EB-1), Employment Second (EB-2), Employment Third (EB-3), and Other Worker (EW) for fiscal year 2022 have been reached. His case was then sent back to the National Benefits Center to be placed on hold until the visa becomes available for fiscal year 2023."
So I am totally confused about this. Why they sent back the case to NBC again God knows. In any case, my question was how soon the visas will become available for fiscal year 2023. I was under the impression that they must have become available already, since the fiscal year 2023 already started. Am I missing something here. Please give your 2 cents and that will be probably the last question to you for now from me. Thanks so much for your help. Really appreciate it.
Just for context, my priority date is August 2010, EB2, I have already got my EAD.
I agree with you that for this date a visa must be available. You need to tell the senator that the date is already curent and visa should be available. People after your date have been greened. Just be reasonable. Dont pester him. They will help you.Quote:
Originally Posted by optimista
If not find a lawyer and send a request to USCIS through a lawyer. That will be costly but seems like last resort if you have tried Emma / senator / FOIA etc .... then lawyer is the last resort imho.
So perhaps raise a query with USCIS AND also reach out to senator.
Hi Q, thank you for the advice. Really appreciate it. I think I am going to take lawyer's help here. This is just getting beyond tolerable for me now. Thanks once again. I will post the updates here later.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Has the senator exhausted his/her means? If not - that is quick and easy remedy for now. Ask their office to ask USCIS/DOS what is wrong with the case since the date is already current. Isn't it?Quote:
Originally Posted by optimista
I agree with Q, since senators office already stated the communication, they can reach out to USCIS contact and request why there is no availability of visa as FY 2023 already started. This could be a faster route to get the approvalQuote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk