EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Dear All,

Header of the thread is now updated with my final post for year 2013 and a rough picture of 2014.

Regards
Q

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Thank you very much for your detailed analysis.
If possible can you please throw some light on EB 3 India?

Thank you very much

Amul

Hi,
I know its too ealey to pose the question.
When can i expect to be current with sep 09 eb2 pd.

Thanks

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Originally Posted by Gcsep09

Hi,
I know its too ealey to pose the question.
When can i expect to be current with sep 09 eb2 pd.

Thanks

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FY 2015 (July-Sep 2015)

Sorry Amul. Today we had a site hijack and I spent more than 8 hours trying to clean up stuff and upgrade and bolster security etc.

To answer your question - EB3I contrary to my earlier feeling - is probably on a sustainable path i.e. there may not be any retrogression (big deal right!! for people who already are retrogressed so severely).

My normal expectation for EB3I would be 3-5 months of movement. In reality we saw 9 months in 2013. That is probably 16-17K numbers (from original backlog) we are talking about. Of that 3.5K were actually approved. So the rest are either cancellations and portings. I would imagine, most are really cancellations - people who got fed up and just couldn't stretch their lives too much. This is a trend that is true not just with India but with all countries - except philipines. This explains why ROW has moved so fast. With the same trend I would expect another 7-8 months of movement for EB3I in 2014 and about 2 years of movement for ROW. But we can say this definitively after the 485 data is published sometime in Oct 2013.Hope this helps.

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Originally Posted by amulchandra

Thank you very much for your detailed analysis.
If possible can you please throw some light on EB 3 India?

Thank you very much

Amul

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Sorry Amul. Today we had a site hijack and I spent more than 8 hours trying to clean up stuff and upgrade and bolster security etc.

To answer your question - EB3I contrary to my earlier feeling - is probably on a sustainable path i.e. there may not be any retrogression (big deal right!! for people who already are retrogressed so severely).

My normal expectation for EB3I would be 3-5 months of movement. In reality we saw 9 months in 2013. That is probably 16-17K numbers (from original backlog) we are talking about. Of that 3.5K were actually approved. So the rest are either cancellations and portings. I would imagine, most are really cancellations - people who got fed up and just couldn't stretch their lives too much. This is a trend that is true not just with India but with all countries - except philipines. This explains why ROW has moved so fast. With the same trend I would expect another 7-8 months of movement for EB3I in 2014 and about 2 years of movement for ROW. But we can say this definitively after the 485 data is published sometime in Oct 2013.Hope this helps.

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Thank you very much for taking time to answer my question. It looks like it is still going to be a long wait for jul 2006 eb3 i to be current.

I don't agree on this. We don't have month by month data. Its a general assumption that 2009 has less data than any of its previous or successive year.

If the spill over is 18+, there are chances Sep2009 will be covered.

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Originally Posted by titanian

I don't agree on this. We don't have month by month data. Its a general assumption that 2009 has less data than any of its previous or successive year.

If the spill over is 18+, there are chances Sep2009 will be covered.

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It doesn't matter if we have month by month data. Looking at annual numbers gives you an idea of where dates will end up. For 2008, the spread was fairly even month to month.

From the June demand data, for 2008 there are approx 18K cases and 2009 has approx 17K. To reach Sept 30, 2009 you would need 9K (July to Dec 2008) + 12.5K (3/4 of 17K)+approx 5K(porting) + whatever is leftover from this go-around. Given current expectations on SOFAD for FY14, it seems highly unlikely that we will get to Sept 2009. As of now, I'd put the probability at less than 5%.

Obviously this is subject to change.

Spec,

Lately, I have not noticed any updates from you. Your latest footer " So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish" , makes me believe that you have either left the forum or a temporary pause before next fiscal year. Thank you for all the data crunching and consistent updates. From all your postings I learned a lot.

I am sure the next year batch look forward to see amazing posts from you.

I will look forward to see your postings.

Thanks again for all the data sharing, analysis and help. I am also sure many were blessed through your postings.

With great respect!!!

Matt

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Update on June 12, 2013

There is a fairly strong indication that "the priority date cut-off for EB-2 India could advance as far as February 2008 in the August or September Visa Bulletin".

That can be interpreted to mean a Cut Off Date between 01FEB08 and 01MAR08 depending how you parse the statement.

Without any porting, progress to those dates would take between 9-10k.

With porting of anywhere between 4-7k, that would be 13-17k total approvals to EB2-I if every case was approved. In reality, some people will be "left behind", so the likely number of approvals will be towards the lower end of that range.

The bright spot might be if EB2-WW approvals continue to slow. That would allow slightly further movement. The "elephant in the room" is the level of EB1 approvals, which no-one has a good handle on.


Update on April 04, 2013

Only because people seem to want one. The information available isn't very clear.

EB2-I might receive anything between 8k and 17k approvals, depending on how EB1 and EB2-WW perform. A mid point would be about 13 - 15k approvals i.e. towards the upper end.

Assuming not all cases are approved, that might move the Cut Off dates to the end of February/March 2008, using that mid point. At the upper end, June 2008 might be possible.

If a significant number of porting cases are delayed (due to RFE or processing time when they become Current), then the Cut Off Dates could move a bit further than mentioned above.

More time is needed to see what EB1 and EB2-WW will do in the coming months. Assumed Porting numbers have to be a guess and may be wrong.


Update on March 10, 2013 to make things clearer

The FY2012 DOS Visa statistics provided some very nice surprises.

FB underused their allocation and may provide as many as 13.2k extra visas to EB2.

EB4 did not use their full allocation again and I now feel confident to allow some spillover from EB4.

EB1 had high usage in FY2012, but this may be a rebound effect from Kazarian in FY2011. Nonetheless, for prediction purposes I am going to use a lower figure for FY2013.

EB2-ROW and EB2-Philippines were on target to use or exceed their allocation, while EB2-Mexico would still have provided spare numbers had retrogression not been imposed.

Currently, I am using the following spillover numbers for FY2013 based on 158k being available to EB:

EB1 ------ 10.2
EB2-M --- }
EB2-P --- } 0.0
EB2-ROW - }
EB3 ------- 0.0
EB4 ------- 3.3
EB5 ------- 1.3
Total ---- 14.8 k spillover.

At that level EB2-China would receive 1k as 7% of Fall Down, giving 4.2k with the initial allocation of 3.2k.

EB2-India would have around 17k visas available including the 3.2k initial allocation.

That might be sufficient to clear all cases to about April 2008.

The above is probably a mid point. There are still big doubts about the performance of EB1 and EB2-ROW/P. For instance, if EB1 were use 40k again in FY2013, then dates might struggle to even be in early 2008.

Also, as mentioned above, it assumes that all cases will be cleared. We know that is never the case, so Cut Off Dates will probably move slightly further than that.

Movement into 2009 now seems impossible.

Where the dates move to is going to depend on the performance of EB1, EB2-ROW and just how many porting applications there are / are approved.


Posted January 01, 2013

Q1 is now history.

I am relatively less optimistic based on the Trackitt figures to date, although I would like to see the actual FY2012 numbers.

Any hope of spillover from EB5 must now be discounted.

EB4 was artificially low in FY2011 due the withdrawal of concurrent filing for Religious Workers cases part way through the year. Unless there is specific evidence to the contrary, EB4 can be expected to return to full usage. The FY2012 figures from DOS will confirm this theory (or not).

EB2-WW has used approaching 40% of their yearly allocation in 3 months. Barring extremely slow adjudication times, EB2-WW looks like it will use its entire allocation and there is some risk of EB2-WW also using spillover available from EB1.

Judging from CO comments on August 30, 2012:



EB1 usage in FY2012 approached 40k. Again, the official Visa Statistics will tell the truth of this.

The USCIS Inventory does not suggest backlog reduction, since the October 2011 and October 2012 EB1 figures are almost identical.

Relatively high EB1 usage in FY2013 must also be expected.

The signs are that there will be very little spillover available in FY2013. In fact, adjusted for various factors, the underlying spillover in FY2012 wasn't very high either, but a combination of the extra visas available from FB and the use by EB2-IC of EB2-WW visas only made it look so.

All this tends to point to EB2-I only having 6k or less total visas available to them in FY2013. The majority of these will be consumed by porting cases, leaving very few to clear existing cases.

An ending Cut Off Date in mid 2007 will be a good result, but that is not guaranteed. I do not think there is any chance of the Cut Off date reaching 2008. The actual number of porting cases approved will determine the final Cut Off Date.

Added January 04, 2013 to be consistent with other posts

Spillover -- Min ----- Max --- Avge.
EB1 ---------- 0 --- 5,000 --- 2,500
EB2-WW -- (5,000) ------ 0 -- (2,500)
EB4 ---------- 0 --- 2,000 --- 1,000
EB5 ---------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0
Total --- (5,000) -- 7,000 --- 1,000

Approvals Available to EB2-India

EB2-I ---- 2,803 --- 9,803 --- 6,303


Posted September 25, 2012

At this moment, a prediction for FY2013 is a fools errand because of so many unknowns.

With the scant information available, here goes anyway.

A mid-point scenario might see EB2-I receive 9.8k visas in FY2013 (7k extra).

That would move Cut Off Dates to the very beginning of 2008, if 4.5k porting was assumed.

Numbers are much less in the period Jan 1, 2008 to March 14, 2008 than the remainder of 2008 due the extra month they had for approval in FY2012. Only a further 2.5k are required to hit this mark. Since not all cases will be closed out, even 9.8k visas for EB2-I can move the Cut Off date into this territory. After that 1.1 - 1.3k per month are required in 2008.

Personally, I think EB1 will hit at least 35k in FY2013.

Big unknowns are whether EB2-WW either uses spillover, uses none, or give some fall across. Increased usage by Philippines is not a good indicator.

EB5 will give little to no spillover (maybe 2k at most).

EB4 is an unknown quantity. In FY2011, it gave significant spillover. It remains to be seen whether this was a once off event, or whether it will be repeated. A better idea will become apparent when the FY2012 DOS Statistics are published. Hopefully, we will see a return to them being published in January, rather than August.

I differ with some and think porting numbers may be higher than I have indicated above. If USCIS have followed their own AFM, then none of the cases submitted since dates became Unavailable will yet appear in the DOS Demand Data, since the final conversion (and thus visa request under EB2) cannot take place until the PD is Current.

The very best I think is possible (but less likely) with all favorable possibilities is mid 2008.

If some assumptions don't pan out, then the dates will end in 2007.

The (very, very unlikely) worst scenario really is too dire to contemplate.

China will move completely independently of India and end at some point in 2008.

The information available at the moment is poor. The prediction can be refined when that situation improves with time.

Don't take it too seriously at the moment.

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

Spec,

Lately, I have not noticed any updates from you. Your latest footer " So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish" , makes me believe that you have either left the forum or a temporary pause before next fiscal year. Thank you for all the data crunching and consistent updates. From all your postings I learned a lot.

I am sure the next year batch look forward to see amazing posts from you.

I will look forward to see your postings.

Thanks again for all the data sharing, analysis and help. I am also sure many were blessed through your postings.

With great respect!!!

Matt

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Matt,

From Spec's post he is off on vacation.

if so I will be happy, Google it" So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish"

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Originally Posted by trackright

Matt,

From Spec's post he is off on vacation.

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You know Matt... that is Spec. I like him more for these kind of quirks of his. BTW yesterday he posted in Mod forum .... and we had some exchange but of course I won't say anything beyond. Let Spec be the one talking about his intentions.

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

if so I will be happy, Google it" So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish"

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Originally Posted by titanian

I don't agree on this. We don't have month by month data. Its a general assumption that 2009 has less data than any of its previous or successive year.

If the spill over is 18+, there are chances Sep2009 will be covered.

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The numbers hardly support the dates movement until Mar 2009. I do not see where you get the idea that 18+ (Lets say 19k) can cover Sep 2009. 8k will be pending from Jun 08 to Dec 08. Another 12k from Jan 09 to Sep 09. Another 3k of first time applicants before June 2008 that will not get GC in this FY. To sum it up, there will be 8+12+3=23k applicants before Sep 2009. That is at a minimum.You need at least 24k supply to clear that out. That is no way possible.

Movement should be around Mar 2009 according to current trends.

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Another 3k of first time applicants before June 2008 that will not get GC in this FY.

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Based on what data? Do we have calculated this anywhere on this forum recently? or this is based on trackitt data?

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Based on what data? Do we have calculated this anywhere on this forum recently? or this is based on trackitt data?

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Recently, we have had estimates of 7% conversion rate for trackitt data. Both Spec and Indiani suggested that around 8k got approved in Aug and I can see 570 approvals in Aug.

On trackitt we have seen 217 applications that applied between Aug - Sep and are still pending cases. So the 217 on trackitt would correspond to 3100 (3k) porting applicants that would reflect in the new inventory and demand data.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

What are their priority dates? It could be the pent up porting demand. From the thread maintained by "idiotic" here on September folks and another trackigg thread for March 2008 filers, I see a very large percentage of people are approved (and even idiotic has missed to update a couple of approved folks by simple visual inspection). Also, we still have a few days to go in September...let's see how many approvals we will see. My point is late 2007 and 2008 PDs have fared very well and it's only been slightly over half a month.

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I am missing your point? How does the priority date matter when we are trying to figure out porting applications (first time I-485 filers). These will be ready for approval 3 months after the filing of the application. They will all become preadj by Nov 2013 and will start reflecting in the demand/inventory. So we should see like 3k applications prior to June 2008 that would be waiting for approval in FY 2014.

titanian - the 485 inventory is the month by month data. Or perhaps you mean month by month approvals? That I would agree with of course.

If as you say the spillover is 18+ next year then EB2I will have all of that plus 3K quota. Bet Jun 2008 and Sep 2009, there are more cases than that. Plus the next wave of portings will hit the EB2I queue. So Sep will be impossible with 18K spillover - however May is a certainty with 18K spillover.

The question is - why would spillover be 18K? Will it be 18K. In the header I have explained my reasoning why it may not be 18K next year.

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Originally Posted by titanian

I don't agree on this. We don't have month by month data. Its a general assumption that 2009 has less data than any of its previous or successive year.

If the spill over is 18+, there are chances Sep2009 will be covered.

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Guys,
My 485, 131, 765 got rejected today (filed on 9/4). It seems they had mistakenly classified it as a family petition instead of employment petition even though my attorney had attached approved I 140 (as per their remarks)

They are quoting USCIS error and are attaching a cover letter with the I 140 copy and filing again tomorrow.

If it was USCIS error, do they giveme the old receipt date ? Im not sure being 15 days ahead in queue matters that much but it was a nice to have ..

Any thoughts ?

I should look at the inventory data and do analysis. I was under the assumption that Jan - Dec 2009 has less number of cases than any other year.

Anyways updated demand data and inventory data will give more picture.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

titanian - the 485 inventory is the month by month data. Or perhaps you mean month by month approvals? That I would agree with of course.

If as you say the spillover is 18+ next year then EB2I will have all of that plus 3K quota. Bet Jun 2008 and Sep 2009, there are more cases than that. Plus the next wave of portings will hit the EB2I queue. So Sep will be impossible with 18K spillover - however May is a certainty with 18K spillover.

The question is - why would spillover be 18K? Will it be 18K. In the header I have explained my reasoning why it may not be 18K next year.

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Update demand and inventory can answer many questions. I was under the wrong assumption that June - Dec 2008 has less little cases like 6500+.

If porting consumes 4000-5000, then I thought we will have 7000 left over. This is for 18K spillover.

Also do you think CO will apply Quarterly spill over. In previous years, any pattern of application other than 2012 ?

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

titanian - the 485 inventory is the month by month data. Or perhaps you mean month by month approvals? That I would agree with of course.

If as you say the spillover is 18+ next year then EB2I will have all of that plus 3K quota. Bet Jun 2008 and Sep 2009, there are more cases than that. Plus the next wave of portings will hit the EB2I queue. So Sep will be impossible with 18K spillover - however May is a certainty with 18K spillover.

The question is - why would spillover be 18K? Will it be 18K. In the header I have explained my reasoning why it may not be 18K next year.

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Originally Posted by seattlet

Guys,
My 485, 131, 765 got rejected today (filed on 9/4). It seems they had mistakenly classified it as a family petition instead of employment petition even though my attorney had attached approved I 140 (as per their remarks)

They are quoting USCIS error and are attaching a cover letter with the I 140 copy and filing again tomorrow.

If it was USCIS error, do they giveme the old receipt date ? Im not sure being 15 days ahead in queue matters that much but it was a nice to have ..

Any thoughts ?

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If itsa mistake that would be fine..there is no advantage with receipt date..on the other hand you must send it fast before dates go back..
Usually there will be reasons such as incorrect fee. Wrong apparently wrong pictures missing docs cause rejections..

Any ways sorry to know that this happened..this time make sure u dbl Chi ur finalcopy with some one else as well..

Rd doesn't matter..once you r in queue all that matters is ur luck

Eb2I next year my guess is dec08 worstcase.. may09 bestcase

gurus,

Is there a way to track status of EAD, AOS, Advance Parole? Thanks!

i love that Sports especially me being someone who missed the boat by 10 days (my PD is June 24, 2008). Though the chances are very slim but it would be wonderful if QSP comes to fruition.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

On an unrelated topic, suppose the PERM slowdown and processing times keep worsening in the short term, it is not unlikely that we will see QSP and EB2-I dates would jump in the first 2 quarters themselves instead of the last one. CO would like to spread out visa approvals evenly across all quarters and if the other categories are falling far short of approvals, EB2-I can make up the difference. Let's see if this comes to fruition.

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I think its still a possibility based on the spill over.
1. From Jun 15 08 to Oct 1st 09- apprx: 18K case
2. Eb3-Eb2 who have filed 485 this time but will in 2014 quota: 4k apprx
3. Miscellaneous: 2k appr
Total cases Needed to cover sep 09 PD: 22k.
Estimate on available visas:
Reg quota: 3k
EB spill Over: 14 k ---what are the chances of getting this spillover from EB
FB: There is lot of discussion going on saying it will be less.
4K spill over--what are the possiblities
Total:
3k+14k(subject to change) + 4k (subject to change): 21K

what is the probability of 14K EB and 4K FB spillover for next year?

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Originally Posted by garihc27

gurus,

Is there a way to track status of EAD, AOS, Advance Parole? Thanks!

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i assume u mean your own cases. Theres an online USCIS status check website. Google it. It asks for your receipt numbers. You alos have the option to set up text and email alerts when status changes.