EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

Dude... let me make things clear since you seem to feel overly sensitive about this....

Please explain what your point is with regards to your statement... a lot of people are quite anxious and excited about...You imply that I do not understand the pain and suffering of the fellow gc seekers. This is not true since I am in the same boat.

Your second statement that Gurus here do a commendable job is correct however they do that on the basis of data, math/stats and deep understanding of the process. Under that background comes your statement that your lawyer plays b'ball with CO. So I could not help but draw cartoon in my mind about the 2 playing and discussing VB.

That the dates will move ahead significantly in feb bulletin is no secret because CO has stated that himself. He has also stated that after that bulletin, the movement will be slow or would stop. So I wonder what inside news has CO given your lawyer. You yourself mention that your lawyer "claims" to know CO and could be exaggerating and yet when I laughed you got all worked up.

Again, I did not intend to take potshots at you personally and hope to see a big movement in feb and all other bulletins.

Hi All,

Q and other gurus have replied back on the below question. Most of you have said that either we should get the immigrant stamp at consulate or POE wth EAD/AP or GC.

I checked with my company lawyer, he's saying that its not possible to get her back on GC or AP. He is saying that to get my wife H4 stamped and get here. And also he is saying that even if i go to India with my GC (and also my wife's GC) my wife cannot use the GC because she was not in US when 485 was apporved.

One big red alert that he raised was to get my wife on H4 and have her travel back to US as soon as possible before the I485 approval.

I appreciate your time on this. Any comment / suggestions ?

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Originally Posted by Reddy001

Hi,

We have filed 485 on Nov 1st 2011 and finger printing was done on 11/28/2011. We are waiting on approvals for EAD, 485 and AP documents. My wife (dependent..currently on H4 and need to get stamped) had to travel to India on family emergency on 12/2/2011.

Question is:
If we recieve EAD and AP (approvals & cards) when my wife is in India and if i travel to India and get wife my along back to US, can my wife use the EAD and AP? or She should have valid H4?

Just confused?

Thanks all for you help.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

The point about CO's thoughts relayed through sportsfan33 was enabling H4 spouses to get EADs, and that would certainly make more people eligible for tech jobs for which employers have otherwise difficulty in sourcing local talent, or foreign talent because of restrictions on H1 and L1 visas. So hiring numbers would go up.

The strategy is to utilize low DD until USCIS catches up or QSP dries out a whole lot, to get more people in the system, and grant them EAD, it's not about giving GC. That's what I gather from sportsfan33 's posts

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@sportsfan33 thanks for posting, irrespective of whether the news turns out to be true or not its very nice of you to have shared the information with everyone, I sincerely hope that its true and more and more people get the temporary relief. People are all intelligent enough to make their judgments. I believe that the current movement that has happened thus far is in far excess of the SOFAD that we could expect this year even by the most liberal standards and the most liberal buffers possible. So finally if CO is using procedural means like low demand data etc as @Nishant describes its still very good for all EB2 I/C and no laws are really being broken as only intake is being done no GC's are really being granted.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

That's right Teddy.

The 2007 bus helped thousands of people. It seems to be CO's intention to have a mini-bus that helps some thousands of EB2-IC folks more.

I was believing this movement was related to HR 3012 or high DD. It seems to be *none of that*. High DD is surely playing a part in pushing the envelop further though.

If I had to make educated guesses, this means that CO will rather retrogress than not push the dates enough. So moral of the story: dates will be pushed far in future (not a function of HR 3012 and demand), and they will eventually retrogress (function of both demand and HR 3012).

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How far 6 Months/ 1 year or till apr 1st 2010. Feb 2012 is all set to stretch further. Great info.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

I forgot to add one thing:

The lawyer said that the big movement was "intended" to give EADs rapidly to spouses who are currently on H4, as it will generate more employment. *Also*, he said the USCIS wants to raise as much revenues as possible and EB2-IC aggressive date movement gives them this chance.

I asked him about my pet theory of "2 years worth of demand since the EADs were given for 2 years", but he did not continue that line of discussion. He simply wrapped by saying that he "feels' a big jump is coming in Feb 12 bulletin.

If he really is a good friend of CO, then those are the motivations for the big movement - from the horse's mouth.

P.S. He also said HR 3012 has played 0% part in the movement. It was planned since the summer of 2011 when HR 3012 did not exist.

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If what your lawyer said is really for real, that would be awesome! I think it's a very noble thought to allow more and more people to apply for EAD/AP so that they are not stuck on H1-B forever and at least get some flexibility to pursue other options! I just hope March does not bring in retrogression...!

I don't see why there will not be huge movement in Feb bulletin, If at all there is a movement I think it will be just like last bulletin.

While big movement is very helpful to many (including myself), people who will be on the edge at the end of movement will need to wait longer periods. If the dates move till Jan1, 2010 then people with early 2010 PDs will have entirely different situaion from late 2009 because that intake will last for more than 2 years

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Seems like you are the sensitive one.
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This is my last post to you. I do not need to read or respond to your pompous nonsense again.

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Hi Sports, that's great news you shared with all the details and I can understand your thought process before sharing it.. It must be little hard.
Please do not get disturbed.. I really don't understand why we see some of us getting mad instead of appreciating and having this all in a polite manner.
Thanks again for sharing.

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Originally Posted by bieber

I don't see why there will not be huge movement in Feb bulletin, If at all there is a movement I think it will be just like last bulletin.

While big movement is very helpful to many (including myself), people who will be on the edge at the end of movement will need to wait longer periods. If the dates move till Jan1, 2010 then people with early 2010 PDs will have entirely different situaion from late 2009 because that intake will last for more than 2 years

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If DD is indeed significant then they may want to do same cycle next year too (assuming they are comfortable with 2 year inventory theory :) ).

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Teddy. Thanks for summing it up.

Let me add my 2c worth and see if we agree.

a) Transformation Factor (TF)

The sum of factors that convert the raw PERM figures to the maximum number of I-485 applications that might be expected.

The factors taken into account are:

i) EB2%
ii) Approval rate at I-140
iii) Dependent ratio.

We all use slightly different figures. Currently, I use 65%, 80% & 2.05 which converts 1 PERM to 1.066 I-485.

b) Demand Destruction (DD)

Factors which might lower the numbers of I-485 calculated by the Transformation Factor.

These might be:

i) Multiple PERM
ii) Abandonment
etc.

In the tables I produced (what seems an age ago) I used 15% for PD2007 and 10% for PD2008. Those figures now seem somewhat optimistic, although I was also using an EB2% of 60%, which makes them slightly higher. The OR (see below) gave factors of 0.84 and 0.89 respectively.

c) Overall Ratio (OR)

The cumulative effect of Transformation Factor and Demand Destruction expressed as number of I-485 resulting per approved PERM.

Currently, I am using figures for DD of 40% for PD2007 and 35% for PD2008 to look at the low end of possible I-485 figures.

Based on the initial PERM numbers, this gives 1 PERM converts to 0.64 I-485 for PD 2007 and 0.69 I-485 for PD2008.

Even with those ratios, I get 40k potential EB2-IC I-485 for VB movement to date, including 250 Porting per month to the date the cases become ready for adjudication (2k total) and 1.5k cases from FY2011.

For an OR of about 0.8, which I have seen mentioned, the DD would need to be 25% for the TF factors I am using.

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Spec, Thanks for your post & terminology, it looks very good. I would start using the terminology from your post henceforth.
So my Transformation Factor - .75 * .80 * 2.125 = 1.275
I believe everyone should assume their own factors on this aspect. Most people do agree with a 20% denial rate of I40. I like to go with a high FB factor because of the unique things about I/C, Pedro had once put this in a very humorous way that most parents would not allow their children i.e. us to not be married by this age and 1 in 8 definitely have non US born kinds. Those with no – US born kids are typically IT consultants who normally come from India after having 5+ years of experience. The reason for using higher rate of EB2 as .75 is that post 2007 people atleast from I/C realized that EB3 is a hopeless path and there are silent conversions which we would never be able to track by Eb3 inventory reductions.
I kind of went the other way to find demand destruction by assuming the OR as 1, OR = 1 is validated by the first half of 2007. This way 1/1.275 = .78. So implicitly the demand destruction by this logic would be ~ 22%. This comes out to be higher than your assumed demand destruction figures because your transformation factor is lower.
Now the real thing is that time post 2007 was bad and so even in the best case the OR could come down to 0.8. With 16.5 months of forward movement the approximate intake would be 16.5 * 2200 * .8 = 29.5K. For sure 8.5K as in the demand data and in fact probably 1-1.5K more has already been allocated to EB2 I/C already, even this month there are very steady approvals for Eb2-I on Trackitt. So clearly we are close to the 40K SOFAD line this year by adding intakes + consumption, this is under the assumption that the OR is .8 if it’s any higher then definitely the effective intake is much more. By the OR of .8 the DD comes out to be 1- .8/1.275 = .38 or 38%.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Spec, Thanks for your post & terminology, it looks very good. I would start using the terminology from your post henceforth.
So my Transformation Factor - .75 * .80 * 2.125 = 1.275
I believe everyone should assume their own factors on this aspect. Most people do agree with a 20% denial rate of I40. I like to go with a high FB factor because of the unique things about I/C, Pedro had once put this in a very humorous way that most parents would not allow their children i.e. us to not be married by this age and 1 in 8 definitely have non US born kinds. Those with no – US born kids are typically IT consultants who normally come from India after having 5+ years of experience. The reason for using higher rate of EB2 as .75 is that post 2007 people atleast from I/C realized that EB3 is a hopeless path and there are silent conversions which we would never be able to track by Eb3 inventory reductions.
I kind of went the other way to find demand destruction by assuming the OR as 1, OR = 1 is validated by the first half of 2007. This way 1/1.275 = .78. So implicitly the demand destruction by this logic would be ~ 22%. This comes out to be higher than your assumed demand destruction figures because your transformation factor is lower.
Now the real thing is that time post 2007 was bad and so even in the best case the OR could come down to 0.8. With 16.5 months of forward movement the approximate intake would be 16.5 * 2200 * .8 = 29.5K. For sure 8.5K as in the demand data and in fact probably 1-1.5K more has already been allocated to EB2 I/C already, even this month there are very steady approvals for Eb2-I on Trackitt. So clearly we are close to the 40K SOFAD line this year by adding intakes + consumption, this is under the assumption that the OR is .8 if it’s any higher then definitely the effective intake is much more. By the OR of .8 the DD comes out to be 1- .8/1.275 = .38 or 38%.

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Teddy, thanks for these numbers.

So your 'GC in hand' date predictions has not changed much yet .With SOFAD of 25k your projection is still Dec 2007- Mid Jan 2008 right ?

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

I forgot to add one thing:

The lawyer said that the big movement was "intended" to give EADs rapidly to spouses who are currently on H4, as it will generate more employment.

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How does giving EADs to H4 spouses generate more employment?:confused::confused::rolleyes:

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Teddy, thanks for these numbers.

So your 'GC in hand' date predictions has not changed much yet .With SOFAD of 25k your projection is still Dec 2007- Mid Jan 2008 right ?

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Sun, what's the number of 485 Eb2/I filers - you think between Jul 07 to Jan 08 ?
Somewhere 16k ? or even lesser ?

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Spec, Thanks for your post & terminology, it looks very good. I would start using the terminology from your post henceforth.
So my Transformation Factor - .75 * .80 * 2.125 = 1.275
I believe everyone should assume their own factors on this aspect. Most people do agree with a 20% denial rate of I40. I like to go with a high FB factor because of the unique things about I/C, Pedro had once put this in a very humorous way that most parents would not allow their children i.e. us to not be married by this age and 1 in 8 definitely have non US born kinds. Those with no – US born kids are typically IT consultants who normally come from India after having 5+ years of experience. The reason for using higher rate of EB2 as .75 is that post 2007 people atleast from I/C realized that EB3 is a hopeless path and there are silent conversions which we would never be able to track by Eb3 inventory reductions.
I kind of went the other way to find demand destruction by assuming the OR as 1, OR = 1 is validated by the first half of 2007. This way 1/1.275 = .78. So implicitly the demand destruction by this logic would be ~ 22%. This comes out to be higher than your assumed demand destruction figures because your transformation factor is lower.
Now the real thing is that time post 2007 was bad and so even in the best case the OR could come down to 0.8. With 16.5 months of forward movement the approximate intake would be 16.5 * 2200 * .8 = 29.5K. For sure 8.5K as in the demand data and in fact probably 1-1.5K more has already been allocated to EB2 I/C already, even this month there are very steady approvals for Eb2-I on Trackitt. So clearly we are close to the 40K SOFAD line this year by adding intakes + consumption, this is under the assumption that the OR is .8 if it's any higher then definitely the effective intake is much more. By the OR of .8 the DD comes out to be 1- .8/1.275 = .38 or 38%.

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Teddy,

As always, I enjoy reading your posts. In fact, I've been waiting for a response from you to measure my thinking by.

I agree with you that approvals to date may well be in the region of 10k for EB2-IC. Since there is yet to be a Primary approval beyond a PD of July 31, 2007, it tends to validate earlier discussions that a number of approvals remained from PDs reached in FY2011.

It is good to have a common language to discuss the numbers. I quite like OR, because even if we use different TR and DD, OR is a common number at the end of those calculations.

The reason I use an EB2 % of 65% is that PWD analysis suggests an EB2 % of about 70%. Given that some are multiple requests and some are for Porting, I have reduced the % to 65%.

I can't argue about your choice of Dependent Factor - as a personal choice I have stuck to the known ratio for EB2 of 2.05.

The tables I originally posted have an average OR of 0.861

Times have moved on and we have new information - I wonder whether it is worth replacing or supplementing those figures in light of the possibility of greater DD? Possibly, it gives an easy way for everybody to see the effect.

If it is a good idea, what OR to use? I am quite happy to use 0.8, which is 37.3% DD for your TR of 1.275 and 25% DD for my TR of 1.066.

Or, do you want to see a more aggressive number? Currently, for best case scenario purposes only, I am playing around with an OR of 0.67, which represents 33.4% DD for my TR. It would be a rather high 47.75% DD for your TR. Let me know what figure you wish to use for some revised tables.

On another note, I am looking forward to seeing the next USCIS Inventory, although I suspect it might be of limited value.

I say this because, at best, it can only cover movement up to the December VB, but the December figures probably will not be complete. The rush to get December filings in was tempered by the knowledge that dates will still be Current in January and we have anecdotal evidence that some of the larger Immigration firms, such as Fragomen, can be very slow in submitting applications. For this reason, only dates Current in the November VB may be anything like complete and that doesn't represent huge numbers.

I think that the subsequent USCIS inventory for the end of March 2012 will be a far better indicator.

It appears that while we don't know how far the priority dates go, they will definately retrogess at some point.Based on what happened with PWMB, can Guru's please clarify what happens when dates retrogess? e.g. Feb bulletin progresses dates to Dec 2009(wishful thinking,of course).Then dates don't move in March bulletin at all. Then in April bulletin, dates retrogress to July 2008. In this case, what happens to the people with PD between July 2008 to Dec 2009 who have already applied for the AOS before the April bulletin was released? Do they get EADs?Do they get APs?Also, how specifically is cut-off for applications set by USCIS in this situation?

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Originally Posted by mygctracker

Veni,

I can't Thank you enough. Last night I read the PDF and mentally prepared to travel out of US without receipts.
Just now, I saw 6 Receipt notices in mail box.
Me & my wife are happy that we will travel now for family emergency in India.

It is strange, earlier I thought going to India is only after getting AP in hand, due to fear of 221g with visa stamping. But now, that fear is nullified due to unfortunate family loss.

ThankU.

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mygctracker,

Sorry to hear that, Family is first!

Try your best not to miss the bio-metrics or at-least reschedule the appointment.

My heart and prayers goes to your family during this tough time.

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Originally Posted by codesmith

Sun, what's the number of 485 Eb2/I filers - you think between Jul 07 to Jan 08 ?
Somewhere 16k ? or even lesser ?

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I was calculating based on Teddy's numbers (2200*.8) per month plus porting. So that comes around 16000 you are right.

My own numbers are lesser. ( I have different assumptions than T - I am expecting Aggessive DD)

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Originally Posted by vgogte1

It appears that while we don't know how far the priority dates go, they will definately retrogess at some point.Based on what happened with PWMB, can Guru's please clarify what happens when dates retrogess? e.g. Feb bulletin progresses dates to Dec 2009(wishful thinking,of course).Then dates don't move in March bulletin at all. Then in April bulletin, dates retrogress to July 2008. In this case, what happens to the people with PD between July 2008 to Dec 2009 who have already applied for the AOS before the April bulletin was released? Do they get EADs?Do they get APs?Also, how specifically is cut-off for applications set by USCIS in this situation?

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They get EAD/AP and wait till visa numbers becomes available like Jul 2007 filers.

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Originally Posted by vgogte1

It appears that while we don't know how far the priority dates go, they will definately retrogess at some point.Based on what happened with PWMB, can Guru's please clarify what happens when dates retrogess? e.g. Feb bulletin progresses dates to Dec 2009(wishful thinking,of course).Then dates don't move in March bulletin at all. Then in April bulletin, dates retrogress to July 2008. In this case, what happens to the people with PD between July 2008 to Dec 2009 who have already applied for the AOS before the April bulletin was released? Do they get EADs?Do they get APs?Also, how specifically is cut-off for applications set by USCIS in this situation?

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vgogte1,
As long as one apply for EAD/AP (both are optional) with their AOS application, will receive EAD/AP. If and when dates retrogress it will be based on number of documentarily qualified cases Vs total number of VISAs available.

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Originally Posted by veni001

vgogte1,
As long as one apply for EAD/AP (both are optional) with their AOS application, will receive EAD/AP. If and when dates retrogress it will be based on number of documentarily qualified cases Vs total number of VISAs available.

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Veni, if I apply amended 140 along with AOS application, will that delay getting a visa number. My PD is dec2007. Premiium processing not allowed for 140 amendments.

thanks,

sportsfan

Thanks for posting this. And thanks for posting in a "matter-of-fact"-manner without clouding it with your emotions.

The more I thought about it, the more sense it made to me. Here is a key reason why.

In 2007 when the dates were made current, it was a flood of 1/2 million 485 applications! So if CO were to make it current there would be repitition of the same. And so one strategy could be to make it current or almost current over 5-8 months. Thereby allowing USCIS to cope up with the flood of applications. This keeps the economy competitive while allowing controlled immigration. EB immigration hardly is a job killer. What's 140K jobs in 100 million plus jobs in the US?

Anyway .. I am digressing. But basically the strategy on COs part could be to make it current or near current in a controlled manner. My 2 cents.

On another note-imdeng - your point is well taken. But I do think Teddy Spec Veni active here. I see great activity on advocacy thread. If anything I am guilty of not contributing enough. Unfortunately my schedule has gotten uselessly busy. Hope one day I can come back with full force. A few things are in the works but we will see..

In general - I would urge people to feel absolutely feel free to share whatever bit of "FACTUAL" information they have. Rest assured generally people here are quite tolerant.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

I don't think my source really reads any forums. Not worried.

I thought about a long time before posting all of my information. Firstly, I never knew this guy was in the thick of the things. I came to know this today morning. Yes, it could be wishful thinking. Secondly, I understand a lot of folks are going to be very disappointed if this does not come true. But I still went ahead and took a chance, because I think there are parts of the information that are very useful to us.

If the bulletin does not progress, it may be due to the unexpected heavy demand. It has already progressed beyond anyone's wildest dreams.

The red flag in my chat with him is that he never talked about the demand picture. He did admit that very heavy demand could cause retrogression.

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Thank you suninphx,Veni.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Suninphx

what are your numbers? I too have lesser numbers(!!!)

After Jan 2012 bulletin, my numbers look slim and trim . (30K- 35K upto Dec 08)

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Kanmani & Suninphx,

Please share your assumptions for TF & DD, or just your OR if that makes it easier.

Do your end figures include Porting & Extra numbers from FY2011? If so, how many for each?

Thanks.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Kanmani & Suninphx,

Please share your assumptions for TF & DD, or just your OR if that makes it easier.

Do your end figures include Porting & Extra numbers from FY2011? If so, how many for each?

Thanks.

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Spec,

Around 48- 50K without porting till Dec 2009. I have overall ratio of 0.72 - 0.75. Aggressive DD is based on some qualitative evidence

1) PD moved 8.5 months in last bulletin and trackitt was remarkably silent. On previous occasion a movement of 3-4 months used to create buzz on trackitt with posts like ' i am current etc'. May be people were busy discussing HR3012. But it’s hard to believe that people did not find time to post a single liner like 'yay I am current etc'. May be people are busy preparing documents ...but again its hard to believe for me that people did not find time to post a single liner.

2) There have been few polls including one on our site which show several multiple PERM filings. The one on CM's site has as many as 55 out of 159 voted. Now there may be people who were able to capture old PD but I guess is that percentage is less.


3) I opened radomly few 2008 cases on trackitt for which PERM has been approved. I wanted to see if those guys have updated H1 extn status etc. That way I wanted to determine if they are active. Saw serveral cases with no recent updates..multiple PERMS and such. Now there is possibility that people have got tired or lost interest in trackitt etc. But unless otherwise proven I wanted to use statistics to my advantage.

4) If transformation ratio was 1 for a period where people had EAD cushion ...then I believe that it will be below 1 post Jul 2007. As we get more and more data picture will be clearer.


So that’s my take on numbers. It may be right or may be wrong. I don’t worry much about that part...but giving an attempt was more important for me :)

Dec2007,
My PD become current with current bulletin and 140 amendment is pending. I work for fortune company and attorney mentioned that its better to get amendment approved before filing 485,
they mentioned that premium processing is possible and they are filing this week.I will let you know if INS accepts or rejects the premium process for amendment.

Came across this report.

Thought this may be of some help in calculations. It only includes numbers from CP demand and not AOS.

Please remove it it has been posted before or not of much use.

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf

Interesting thing is EB-5 category where so many from Mainland China are waiting.

Also, would appreciate comments from Gurus on this theory of re-calibrated EB2IC PD movement.

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...s-fy-2012.html