EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

Hello,

Latest 485 inventory shows there are more than 7K pending applications with PD < 15/Mar/2009. Primarily the ones prior to 2009.
Any reason why the inventory is still showing these applications? Since the Final action date has been in 2009 for few months my understanding is anything prior to 2009 should be cleared.

Additional question, with lot of scrutiny/queries around H1 extensions and new filings impacting ROWC do we see any additional spill overs to EB2-I/EB3-I

Thanks again for our contribution.

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Originally Posted by Nov2010

Since the Final action date has been in 2009 for few months

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Final action dates reached 2009 just last week. Before that it was always in 2008.

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Final action dates reached 2009 just last week. Before that it was always in 2008.

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My general question is "one would expect most of 2008 and prior cases to be cleared" and pending to be in few hundreds due to administrative issues, but April inventory shows there are 6K cases pending..

Does anyone have any inputs on the I485 Supp J ?

Who needs to file it ? Does everyone need to file it ? I am current from July 1, 2018 and would hate to figure out later that it was mandatory to file I485 J ?

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Does anyone have any inputs on the I485 Supp J ?

Who needs to file it ? Does everyone need to file it ? I am current from July 1, 2018 and would hate to figure out later that it was mandatory to file I485 J ?

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Should not be required unless you got a RFE for additional evidence (current employment status). Did you get a RFE for medicals though? That would be worrisome since you are current. Let us know. Good luck.

Hi Jagan,
If you are filing 485 for the first time then it certainly looks like it is mandatory. See language from USCI website below:

QUOTE
Use Supplement J to:
•Confirm that the job offered to you in Form I-140, Petition for Alien Worker, remains a bona fide job offer that you intend to accept once your Form I 485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, is approved. Beginning Jan. 17, 2017, if you are filing or have previously filed Form I-485 based on being the principal beneficiary of a valid Form I-140 in an employment-based immigrant visa category that requires a job offer, you will need to file Supplement J instead of submitting a job offer letter;

OR
•Request job portability under INA section 204(j) to a new, full-time, permanent job offer that you intend to accept once your Form I-485 is approved. This new job offer must be in the same or a similar occupational classification as the job offered to you in the Form I-140 that is the basis of your Form I-485. (For more information about how USCIS determines which jobs are same or similar please see PM-602-0122: Determining Whether a New Job is in “the Same or a Similar Occupational Classification” for Purposes of Section 204(j) Job Portability (PDF, 205 KB) (March 18, 2016) (PDF, 205 KB)
END QUOTE
Link - https://www.uscis.gov/i-485supj

If you already have submitted a 485 previously then I am myself struggling to decide on an RFE which is only asking for medicals and from language above it seems like we have to file it regardless. My attorney (Murthy) insists that we file it as my original AC21 was filed with a job offer letter. My reasoning for not filing is "If I don't have to then I don't want to give them anything extra which can theoretically lead to additional RFE's as new information is now available" and my priority date is 1st may 2009 so I do expect that to be current in a few months at the latest. I raised this earlier but everyone who responded was of the view that I shouldn't. What does your attorney say?

Appreciate if anyone who has been through the similar situation respond.

Hi everyone,

My wife is in Canada ( we have PR) for H4 Visa interview in Montreal on July 23. She has my photocopy of I-797 approval notice and photocopy of our marriage certificate. Is it a must that original documents must be provided?

Thanks

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Originally Posted by canada

Hi everyone,

My wife is in Canada ( we have PR) for H4 Visa interview in Montreal on July 23. She has my photocopy of I-797 approval notice and photocopy of our marriage certificate. Is it a must that original documents must be provided?

Thanks

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Hi,

A photocopy of your fresh I797 should be good. Ideally it is recommended to your original marriage certificate but don’t worry too much about it. You could support the marriage certificate with additional other certificates like your name on her passport, joint filing taxes etc. these serve as supporting documents but it’s really rare they ask for a marriage certificate. Overall you should be fine. Good luck!

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Originally Posted by Prabhas

Hi,

A photocopy of your fresh I797 should be good. Ideally it is recommended to your original marriage certificate but don’t worry too much about it. You could support the marriage certificate with additional other certificates like your name on her passport, joint filing taxes etc. these serve as supporting documents but it’s really rare they ask for a marriage certificate. Overall you should be fine. Good luck!

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Thank you Prabhas.

How many here are getting RFEs beyond March 2009? It's just been 11 days in July and Trackitt already has plenty of people in March who got CPO status update. I am trying to understand the potential for EB2I movement for August and September. My theory is that EB2I is in a once-in-a-lifetime position to receive significant SO, just want some data to backup the claim.

Regards

Iatiam

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Originally Posted by iatiam

How many here are getting RFEs beyond March 2009? It's just been 11 days in July and Trackitt already has plenty of people in March who got CPO status update. I am trying to understand the potential for EB2I movement for August and September. My theory is that EB2I is in a once-in-a-lifetime position to receive significant SO, just want some data to backup the claim.

Regards

Iatiam

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I got it ~10 days ago with PD May 1st 2009.

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Originally Posted by almost

I got it ~10 days ago with PD May 1st 2009.

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That's great. There does seem to be a potential for EB2I movement. Fingers crossed.

Iatiam

List of trackitt users who reported they got an RFE with PD beyond March 15 2009.

Trackitt username	PD	Center
GCBinaMusafir	5-Apr-2009	Texas
shitalb123	9-Apr-2009	?
Eb2apr09	9-Apr-2009	Nebraska
gcapril2009	13-Apr-2009	Texas
tckannan15	15-Apr-2009	?
Desi_in_line	18-Apr-2009	Texas
GetGreenedSoon	23-Apr-2009	Texas
godisthere	27-Apr-2009	Texas
mbalotia	29-Apr-2009	Texas
gc4raj	30-Apr-2009	Texas
Jhakaasbhidu	?-May-2009	?
krgreencard	5-May-2009	Texas
gcinlinetx	6-May-2009	?
quagmire	8-May-2009	Texas
vijchid	13-May-2009	Texas
zenmaster	24-May-2009	Texas
sk1000	25-May-2009	Texas
gdv_ram	27-May-2009	Texas
vhk2009	29-May-2009	Texas
SecondInning	16-Jun-2009	Nebraska
kpmtan01	15-Sep-2009	Nebraska
getsaby	19-Oct-2009	Nebraska
nscca	29-Oct-2009	Nebraska
lakers2018	30-Oct-2009	Nebraska
skotha82	10-Nov-2009	Nebraska
HYD2WAS	21-Dec-2009	Nebraska
Vanczosyn	29-Dec-2009	Nebraska

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Originally Posted by almost

I got it ~10 days ago with PD May 1st 2009.

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Significant SO is a relative phrase. Back in 2011/12 EB2I got some 30K SOFAD. That was once in a life time opportunity. I do not think we will ever be able to beat that.

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Originally Posted by skpanda

Significant SO is a relative phrase. Back in 2011/12 EB2I got some 30K SOFAD. That was once in a life time opportunity. I do not think we will ever be able to beat that.

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I agree, but still the signs are that CO is gonna divert the EB3 SO to EB2, instead of FA to EB1. It could be around 3-4K, but even that is significant for May2009 folks as most of them have received 2 or 3 RFE's so far over the past 3 yrs and it is their final chance to get out of the stagnation before EB3I catches up with them and then it will be a China situation.

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Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

I agree, but still the signs are that CO is gonna divert the EB3 SO to EB2, instead of FA to EB1. It could be around 3-4K, but even that is significant for May2009 folks as most of them have received 2 or 3 RFE's so far over the past 3 yrs and it is their final chance to get out of the stagnation before EB3I catches up with them and then it will be a China situation.

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Wait a sec.. The comments diverge from the general commentary. Last bulletin there seems to be an indication for date stagnation and subscribers of this thread have repeatedly described, RFE's for people on the horizon are a common enough occurrence and that it does not indicate necessarily a date movement for EB2I or 3I.

What data or event that has triggered some optimism on this front? Also, why would EB3I be in any better situation than the EB2I, just general inventory seems to be similar across both though.

Thansk

Quote:

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Originally Posted by iatiam

How many here are getting RFEs beyond March 2009? It's just been 11 days in July and Trackitt already has plenty of people in March who got CPO status update. I am trying to understand the potential for EB2I movement for August and September. My theory is that EB2I is in a once-in-a-lifetime position to receive significant SO, just want some data to backup the claim.

Regards

Iatiam

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Trackitt username PD Center
GCBinaMusafir 5-Apr-2009 Texas
shitalb123 9-Apr-2009 ?
Eb2apr09 9-Apr-2009 Nebraska
gcapril2009 13-Apr-2009 Texas
tckannan15 15-Apr-2009 ?
Desi_in_line 18-Apr-2009 Texas
GetGreenedSoon 23-Apr-2009 Texas
godisthere 27-Apr-2009 Texas
mbalotia 29-Apr-2009 Texas
gc4raj 30-Apr-2009 Texas
Jhakaasbhidu ?-May-2009 ?
enthuaviator 1-May-2009 Nebraska
krgreencard 5-May-2009 Texas
gcinlinetx 6-May-2009 ?
quagmire 8-May-2009 Texas
keka4green 11-May-2009 Nebraska
vijchid 13-May-2009 Texas
zenmaster 24-May-2009 Texas
sk1000 25-May-2009 Texas
gdv_ram 27-May-2009 Texas
vhk2009 29-May-2009 Texas
SecondInning 16-Jun-2009 Nebraska
kpmtan01 15-Sep-2009 Nebraska
getsaby 19-Oct-2009 Nebraska
nscca 29-Oct-2009 Nebraska
lakers2018 30-Oct-2009 Nebraska
skotha82 10-Nov-2009 Nebraska
pvttk 15-Dec-2009 Nebraska
HYD2WAS 21-Dec-2009 Nebraska
Vanczosyn 29-Dec-2009 Nebraska

its purely waste of someone's time and money when rfe is issued based on hypothetical movement of priority dates.

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Originally Posted by march1612

its purely waste of someone's time and money when rfe is issued based on hypothetical movement of priority dates.

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One of my friend has Nov 09 PD and he got RFE email today.

The bulletin is out
https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...gust-2018.html

and no changes in EB2 dates for Final Action and EB3 moved to 01Jan09.

Looks like EB3I may very well surpass EB2I in the next VB itself.

As CO forecast, EB1-WW has retrogressed (to 01MAY16).

What's slightly interesting in the explanatory notes: (my highlighting)

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WORLDWIDE, EL SALVADOR, GUATEMALA, HONDURAS, MEXICO, AND PHILIPPINES EMPLOYMENT-BASED FIRST (E1) PREFERENCE: As readers were advised in item F of the July Visa Bulletin, there continues to be an extremely high rate of demand for E1 numbers, primarily for USCIS adjustment of status applicants. Therefore, pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act, it has been necessary to impose an E1 Final Action Date for the month of August, with this date being imposed immediately. This action will allow the Department to hold worldwide number use within the maximum allowed under the FY-2018 annual limits.

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is that the FAD Cut Off Date is being imposed immediately. This is not the normal language used when retrogression is imposed.

My take is that USCIS will continue to accept new applications under the July FAD, but that no new approvals for cases with a PD of May 01, 2016 or later will be made from today, for those Countries affected.

We can probably conclude that total EB1 approvals are already reasonably close to the overall allocation limit. It also probably says that CO did not retrogress EB1 China and India quite early enough.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

As CO forecast, EB1-WW has retrogressed (to 01MAY16).

What's slightly interesting in the explanatory notes: (my highlighting)



is that the FAD Cut Off Date is being imposed immediately. This is not the normal language used when retrogression is imposed.

My take is that USCIS will continue to accept new applications under the July FAD, but that no new approvals for cases with a PD of May 01, 2016 or later will be made from today, for those Countries affected.

We can probably conclude that total EB1 approvals are already reasonably close to the overall allocation limit. It also probably says that CO did not retrogress EB1 China and India quite early enough.

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Does this mean power point slide showing visas flowing from EB3-.EB1 was incorrect?

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Originally Posted by Spectator

As CO forecast, EB1-WW has retrogressed (to 01MAY16).

What's slightly interesting in the explanatory notes: (my highlighting)



is that the FAD Cut Off Date is being imposed immediately. This is not the normal language used when retrogression is imposed.

My take is that USCIS will continue to accept new applications under the July FAD, but that no new approvals for cases with a PD of May 01, 2016 or later will be made from today, for those Countries affected.

We can probably conclude that total EB1 approvals are already reasonably close to the overall allocation limit. It also probably says that CO did not retrogress EB1 China and India quite early enough.

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This tell us that there are no Vertical SO left for FY-2018. Curious to know what will happend to SO left in EB3 ? Is there high demand for EB3-C which is consuming all the horizontal SO in that category?

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This tell us that there are no Vertical SO left for FY-2018. Curious to know what will happend to SO left in EB3 ? Is there high demand for EB3-C which is consuming all the horizontal SO in that category?

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This is something I had not thought about before at all. It is very possible that the interview mandate is helping EB3-C too.

On a related note, do we have any hints on the number of EB3-I from 2007 Aug - 2009 December? And also, the number of EB3-I in 2009?

With EB2-I and EB3-I both coming to 2009, I guess calculations will be easy going forward :) Just add 5600 a year and you get your predictions :)

Is it also time to stop cribbing about EB1-C? Or are they going to go current again next year?