EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

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02-21-2012, 11:53 AM
fedupwithgc

Quote:

Originally Posted by 03May07

Got my Greencard in my hand finally!!

Came to US in 1997 on F1. Applied labor in 2007. Missed 485 filing by Half a day, as my Labor was approved at 1pm on Aug 17,2007I dont know if my GC journey is 14yrs or 4+ years.

After responding to my RFE for BC and MC, I got CPO mail in a 4 days and a week later I got my GC. Good luck to you all who are waiting..Thanks to this forum & Gurus(Q,Spec,Veni,Big T, Nishant, Soggadu,Kanmani, Monica12..etc) for Predictions. It kept me busy at work ;)

Let me know if there are any discussion threads/forums like "Fighting your employer/main-vendor in court for non-payments".. :) (Main Vendor didnt pay employer for 5 months)

Congratulations buddy !!!.... you deserve to celebrate..
02-21-2012, 11:54 AM
imdeng

I think DOS is concerned about USCIS's processing speed as well - however - there are 7 more months in this FY - more than enough time for USCIS to take a good bite out of Jan filers. Especially considering so many of Nov and Dec filers have been issued GC already (refer to Spec's trackitt analysis).

Quote:

Originally Posted by gc_usa

My guess

USCIS will not be able to clear many app , we may have 30k spill over and they will not process that many EB2 IC application by Sep 2012 so DOS will allow NVC to process CP cases by making date current to EB2 IC. Now what if EB2 IC cp demand is not enough to consume spill over visas , it will go to EB3. Key thing to watch is not date movement but USCIS processing times. For DEC 2011 filers as of now its Sep 24th 2012 when they can eligible to open SR Jan 2012 filers won't be able to even open SR for TSC. I will not be surprised if NSC will do same soon.

Processing time will be key for future date movement till end of the year 2012 ( Sep 2012 )
02-21-2012, 11:55 AM
just_curious

Quote:

Originally Posted by imdeng

So, my entirely non-analytical, gut-based prediction for April VB: EB2IC PD will NOT stall. It will continue to move in batches in every VB until either the PD catches up with NVC receipts or USCIS catches up with expected spillover numbers. USCIS is likely to catch up when they process a good bit of Jan filers - so until that happens - I would expect PD to keep moving in small batches.

I would agree with imdeng on this analysis... The upcoming demand data will also be one of the key thing for us
02-21-2012, 11:57 AM
zenmaster

Many Congratulations 03May07 !!!
Thats a long time in US !
All the very best for your future :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by 03May07

Got my Greencard in my hand finally!!

Came to US in 1997 on F1. Applied labor in 2007. Missed 485 filing by Half a day, as my Labor was approved at 1pm on Aug 17,2007I dont know if my GC journey is 14yrs or 4+ years.

After responding to my RFE for BC and MC, I got CPO mail in a 4 days and a week later I got my GC. Good luck to you all who are waiting..Thanks to this forum & Gurus(Q,Spec,Veni,Big T, Nishant, Soggadu,Kanmani, Monica12..etc) for Predictions. It kept me busy at work ;)

Let me know if there are any discussion threads/forums like "Fighting your employer/main-vendor in court for non-payments".. :) (Main Vendor didnt pay employer for 5 months)
02-21-2012, 12:02 PM
Transformer

Quote:

Originally Posted by vgraj1

What is the purpose of NVC issuing a notice if the dates are going to be current after two years or later?

One of the goals of DOS is not to waste any visas. They rely heavily on USCIS to adjudicate enough applications. If USCIS doesn't process enough applications then PLAN B for DOS is to issue enough CP visas which are entirely in DOS control.

Based on the current trend if DOS thinks that USCIS is not asking for enough VISAS then they can issue NVC receipts for applicatns with later PD dates. In the last quarter or last few months if DOS doesn't see enough demand from USCIS, they can move the dates further or make current and grant CP visas. Remember, to issue GC thru CP, the dates have to be current.

Think of other scenario, where DOS issue the NVC notice (let's say July 2011) and by last quarter USCIS process enough applications with PD in 2008 and 2009, then DOS don't have to move the dates into 2011 to grant GC for CP. If USCIS process enough applications with PD in 2010 after few more months and there are let's say 50K pre adjudicated applications then DOS will not move the dates and July 2011 will not be current for 2 yrs.

I am just trying to explain how the process works and it is very unusual that dates waon't move (within 1 year) after NVC fee notice. Only happens if DOS is completely wrong with USCIS processing estimates. But it is possible.
02-21-2012, 12:09 PM
just_curious

Quote:

Originally Posted by suninphx

Yeah I have no clue on reasoning but having seen the receipts personally, wanted to share the news.

thats a very good news... May be a lame question for you.. Did they opt for CP in their 140?
02-21-2012, 12:15 PM
piratla

Quote:

Originally Posted by just_curious

thats a very good news... May be a lame question for you.. Did they opt for CP in their 140?

I believe NVC receipts are only meant for CP. So, to answer your question, YES. They must have opted for CP in their I-140.
02-21-2012, 12:15 PM
venkat

Question regarding 485 approval patterns/order

Hello Gurus...Please go through the below question and let me what you think.

Beginning in the month of December people would have started applying for 485 whose Priority Dates fall between Nov 1st 2007 to March 14th 2008. Similarly,
Beginning in the month of January people would have started applying for 485 whose Priority Dates fall between March 15th to December 31st 2008.

As we know, we have already started seeing lot of 485 approvals for people who applied in December (ranging from November all the way to March). Say next month (i.e March) we start seeing approvals for people who filed in January. Again the approvals may be random i.e some whose PD is in April 2008 and others whose PD is in December 2008.

Say after couple of months dates retrogress to July 2008. What would happen to those people whose 485s were approved who fell in the August to December time-frame. Does that mean that they are lucky?

OR

Does DOS give USCIS an internal Priority Date and will ask them to approve only applicants before that date?
02-21-2012, 12:24 PM
vgraj1

Quote:

Originally Posted by Transformer

One of the goals of DOS is not to waste any visas. They rely heavily on USCIS to adjudicate enough applications. If USCIS doesn't process enough applications then PLAN B for DOS is to issue enough CP visas which are entirely in DOS control.

Based on the current trend if DOS thinks that USCIS is not asking for enough VISAS then they can issue NVC receipts for applicatns with later PD dates. In the last quarter or last few months if DOS doesn't see enough demand from USCIS, they can move the dates further or make current and grant CP visas. Remember, to issue GC thru CP, the dates have to be current.

Think of other scenario, where DOS issue the NVC notice (let's say July 2011) and by last quarter USCIS process enough applications with PD in 2008 and 2009, then DOS don't have to move the dates into 2011 to grant GC for CP. If USCIS process enough applications with PD in 2010 after few more months and there are let's say 50K pre adjudicated applications then DOS will not move the dates and July 2011 will not be current for 2 yrs.

I am just trying to explain how the process works and it is very unusual that dates waon't move (within 1 year) after NVC fee notice. Only happens if DOS is completely wrong with USCIS processing estimates. But it is possible.

Thanks for the explanation. I think DOS is moving dates cautiously this time unlike the July 2007 fiasco. So, we can assume that DOS is not completely wrong this time. I guess there is some insider information between DOS, NVC and USCIS which we are not aware of. No doubt we are in an unusual situation here where the PD for EB2I has moved so fast in few bulletins. My EB2I PD is 04/11 and few months back I forgot that there is something called EAD/GC since I felt it is going to take a very long time to get to the EAD stage. But last few bulletins have really been exciting! However, if the dates do move back to 2008, I will again forget that there is something called EAD/GC!
02-21-2012, 12:27 PM
suninphx

Quote:

Originally Posted by just_curious

thats a very good news... May be a lame question for you.. Did they opt for CP in their 140?

Yes..looks like it's a practice at their attorny's office
02-21-2012, 12:29 PM
mysati

Quote:

Originally Posted by 03May07

Got my Greencard in my hand finally!!

Came to US in 1997 on F1. Applied labor in 2007. Missed 485 filing by Half a day, as my Labor was approved at 1pm on Aug 17,2007I dont know if my GC journey is 14yrs or 4+ years.

After responding to my RFE for BC and MC, I got CPO mail in a 4 days and a week later I got my GC. Good luck to you all who are waiting..Thanks to this forum & Gurus(Q,Spec,Veni,Big T, Nishant, Soggadu,Kanmani, Monica12..etc) for Predictions. It kept me busy at work ;)

Let me know if there are any discussion threads/forums like "Fighting your employer/main-vendor in court for non-payments".. :) (Main Vendor didnt pay employer for 5 months)

Congratulations! That's really a long wait...
02-21-2012, 12:35 PM
imdeng

Yes. And/Or Smart enough to have a no-problem, easily-approvable, low-hanging-fruit application that could be approved in 3 months by USCIS.

Quote:

Originally Posted by venkat

Say after couple of months dates retrogress to July 2008. What would happen to those people whose 485s were approved who fell in the August to December time-frame. Does that mean that they are lucky?
02-21-2012, 12:37 PM
just_curious

Quote:

Originally Posted by suninphx

Yes..looks like it's a practice at their attorny's office

thank you Suninphx and Piratla!!
02-21-2012, 12:38 PM
kkruna

I have a feeling that they are looking at data which is very different from what we reckon in terms of demand. When we cannot understand a situation, we either have different perspective or we are missing a link somewhere. A small movement in Trackitt ratio can change the numbers substantially. We have based it on historical average but proportion of population entering their data on Trackitt depends on so many aspects.

As for USCIS "slow speed", the only way to compensate it through CP would be to really stretch the dates to the extent of making it current. For last resort, EB3 is there with ready processed cases to pickup any shortfall if even CP does not help sufficiently.
02-21-2012, 12:41 PM
mysati

I have a basic question. I think we are all thinking here from the perspective of EB2-I/C in trying to understand why they are issuing NVC notices for PDs in 2011. Assuming USCIS processing takes several months for the recent filers, whether EB2 or any other category, come Aug/Sep 2012 if there are not enough documentarily qualified EB2s on file to issue the visa numbers, wouldn't it automatically spillover to EB3? Even with porting, I am sure that there are enough documentarily qualified EB3s before 2007 who can benefit from the spillover and the visas will definitely not be wasted.

So could there be any other rationale for CO moving the dates (maybe preparing for HR 3012 or anything else that most of us are not privy to)?
02-21-2012, 12:42 PM
mysati

@KKruna,
I guess we had a telepathy here :)
02-21-2012, 12:47 PM
mysati

Quote:

Originally Posted by venkat

Hello Gurus...Please go through the below question and let me what you think.

Beginning in the month of December people would have started applying for 485 whose Priority Dates fall between Nov 1st 2007 to March 14th 2008. Similarly,
Beginning in the month of January people would have started applying for 485 whose Priority Dates fall between March 15th to December 31st 2008.

As we know, we have already started seeing lot of 485 approvals for people who applied in December (ranging from November all the way to March). Say next month (i.e March) we start seeing approvals for people who filed in January. Again the approvals may be random i.e some whose PD is in April 2008 and others whose PD is in December 2008.

Say after couple of months dates retrogress to July 2008. What would happen to those people whose 485s were approved who fell in the August to December time-frame. Does that mean that they are lucky?OR

Does DOS give USCIS an internal Priority Date and will ask them to approve only applicants before that date?

Yes, some people are lucky. I personally know a co-worker of mine (EB2-I) getting approved during the 2007 fiasco. Her PD was May 2006. But if I look back at her case now, it was a low hanging fruit. So maybe...
02-21-2012, 01:23 PM
ThatIsAll

Quote:

Originally Posted by 03May07

Got my Greencard in my hand finally!!

Came to US in 1997 on F1. Applied labor in 2007. Missed 485 filing by Half a day, as my Labor was approved at 1pm on Aug 17,2007I dont know if my GC journey is 14yrs or 4+ years.

Congrats! It's a big partttayy time! I know 14 yrs is tough to stay afloat....see thru 2 recessions, dot com bust then the recent finance meltdown. Glad you could get through those RFEs. The amount of documents we accumulate over the years is crazy. I'm close behind you.. 11yrs of wait :-)
02-21-2012, 01:41 PM
imdeng

My opinions on the questions:
- HR3012: No effect on PD. They have no reason to take in to account something that is not the extant law.
- Spillover to EB3: IF there are no enough documentarily qualified EB2 in Sept 2012 then yes - but that is a big IF - very big - and in my opinion it is extremely unlikely. 8 months for Jan filers and 7 months for Feb filers is enough time for USCIS to process enough cases to meet the spillover numbers.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mysati

I have a basic question. I think we are all thinking here from the perspective of EB2-I/C in trying to understand why they are issuing NVC notices for PDs in 2011. Assuming USCIS processing takes several months for the recent filers, whether EB2 or any other category, come Aug/Sep 2012 if there are not enough documentarily qualified EB2s on file to issue the visa numbers, wouldn't it automatically spillover to EB3? Even with porting, I am sure that there are enough documentarily qualified EB3s before 2007 who can benefit from the spillover and the visas will definitely not be wasted.

So could there be any other rationale for CO moving the dates (maybe preparing for HR 3012 or anything else that most of us are not privy to)?
02-21-2012, 02:36 PM
qesehmk

3M many congratulations. You have a lot of patience and grace. Sometimes a few of us complain at 3-4-5 years wait time. 14 years is a lifetime! Good luck and enjoy post GC journey! On your vendor nonpayment situation - I do not know much. But if it's a few thousand or even 10 thousand dollars or less ... let it go. You will probably be happier if you let that chapter go off your life and open a new chapter where you let you mind become free and fearless. Sorry if I come across as preaching you. That's not the intention.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 03May07

Got my Greencard in my hand finally!!

Came to US in 1997 on F1. Applied labor in 2007. Missed 485 filing by Half a day, as my Labor was approved at 1pm on Aug 17,2007I dont know if my GC journey is 14yrs or 4+ years.

After responding to my RFE for BC and MC, I got CPO mail in a 4 days and a week later I got my GC. Good luck to you all who are waiting..Thanks to this forum & Gurus(Q,Spec,Veni,Big T, Nishant, Soggadu,Kanmani, Monica12..etc) for Predictions. It kept me busy at work ;)

Let me know if there are any discussion threads/forums like "Fighting your employer/main-vendor in court for non-payments".. :) (Main Vendor didnt pay employer for 5 months)
02-21-2012, 02:40 PM
nishant2200

USCIS processing times updated.

check it out.

https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do

NSC: I-485 for EB based is still 4 months. I-140 is still 4 months. (and that is after the barrage of new incoming from EB2IC, still holding onto 4 months, good good very good!)

TSC: I-485 for EB based at April 3, 2011. Does not mean they will take as long, but creates problem in inquiring about status and SR as you won't hit the processing time and be waiting and curious to see what's going on, but they will tell you, hey we are at April 2011 right now. I-140 is at June 29, 2011.

So bottomline is that NSC is still confidently declaring 4 months and is not afraid of customer service calls for status. While TSC is taking it cautiously.
02-21-2012, 02:40 PM
reachme_s

Quote:

Originally Posted by venkat

Does DOS give USCIS an internal Priority Date and will ask them to approve only applicants before that date?

Venkat - When did you get your FP notice?
02-21-2012, 02:49 PM
tackle

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

USCIS processing times updated.

check it out.

https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do

NSC: I-485 for EB based is still 4 months. I-140 is still 4 months. (and that is after the barrage of new incoming from EB2IC, still holding onto 4 months, good good very good!)

TSC: I-485 for EB based at April 3, 2011. Does not mean they will take as long, but creates problem in inquiring about status and SR as you won't hit the processing time and be waiting and curious to see what's going on, but they will tell you, hey we are at April 2011 right now. I-140 is at June 29, 2011.

So bottomline is that NSC is still confidently declaring 4 months and is not afraid of customer service calls for status. While TSC is taking it cautiously.

So, the processing dates for TSC has moved by 1 month in 4-6 months? That's great. Anyone remember what the previous date for TSC was, and when it was last updated?
02-21-2012, 03:17 PM
venkat

On 17th (friday)

Quote:

Originally Posted by reachme_s

Venkat - When did you get your FP notice?
02-21-2012, 03:21 PM
geterdone

Do you think someone with PD beyond May 2008 will get GC this FY? How far will it go?
02-21-2012, 03:30 PM
fedupwithgc

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

USCIS processing times updated.

check it out.

https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do

NSC: I-485 for EB based is still 4 months. I-140 is still 4 months. (and that is after the barrage of new incoming from EB2IC, still holding onto 4 months, good good very good!)

TSC: I-485 for EB based at April 3, 2011. Does not mean they will take as long, but creates problem in inquiring about status and SR as you won't hit the processing time and be waiting and curious to see what's going on, but they will tell you, hey we are at April 2011 right now. I-140 is at June 29, 2011.

So bottomline is that NSC is still confidently declaring 4 months and is not afraid of customer service calls for status. While TSC is taking it cautiously.

Dates posted are as of Dec 31 2011 which is still very good and shows Dec filers can expect GC in 4 months.
02-21-2012, 03:45 PM
sp2008

Quote:

Originally Posted by 03May07

Got my Greencard in my hand finally!!

Let me know if there are any discussion threads/forums like "Fighting your employer/main-vendor in court for non-payments".. :) (Main Vendor didnt pay employer for 5 months)

03May07,
Hello buddy, enjoy your freedom after looooong wait.
I guess you should start a thread about "Fighting your employer/main-vendor in court for non-payments" while you are active here.
It would be useful for our friends for sure one day.

SP
02-21-2012, 03:56 PM
nishant2200

Quote:

Originally Posted by geterdone

Do you think someone with PD beyond May 2008 will get GC this FY? How far will it go?

Jan filers may very well get lucky in next month onwards, unless DOS-USCIS publish an internal memo or directive to block visa demand internally at March 15th 2008 prior i.e. till Dec Visa Bulletin only. (I really doubt that such an internal memo would be given out, unless visas start running out in a monthly allocation target or a quarterly allocation higher level target).

What's stopping a Jan filer file from getting approved, if all background checks are done, FP is done, and file gets assigned to an officer otherwise. Ideally the filing should be such that until all the prior files are assigned out, a Jan file would not be assigned out, but I am not sure how much they can enforce such order in a vast number of filings across two service centers.

ps: I have no problems with any PD person getting GC, be it Jan or Feb filer. Just God, give me mine too :)
02-21-2012, 06:10 PM
polapragada

congrats nishant
02-21-2012, 06:16 PM
kd2008

Yay! Congrats Nishant!

From trackitt!

User: nish2200
Nationality: India
Country of Chargeability: India
Applicant Type: primary
Service Center: Nebraska
Category: EB2
Priority Date: 08 Nov 2007
Application Filed: 30 Nov 2011
USCIS Received Date: 01 Dec 2011
USCIS Notice Date: 06 Dec 2011
I-485 Status: approved
I-485 Approval/Denial Date: 21 Feb 2012
Card Production Ordered: 21 Feb 2012
Total Time to Get GC: 83 days
02-21-2012, 06:19 PM
TorreyPines

Congratulations!

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

Just God, give me mine too :)

You asked, I responded. - GOD. ;)
02-21-2012, 06:35 PM
feedmyback

Many Many Congratulations Nishant!!!! Looks like it is a good time to pray to GOD!!! :) God please make me current in April bulletin :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by TorreyPines

You asked, I responded. - GOD. ;)
02-21-2012, 06:42 PM
kkruna

Congrats Nishant!!
02-21-2012, 07:02 PM
gcseeker

Quote:

Originally Posted by kd2008

Yay! Congrats Nishant!

From trackitt!

User: nish2200
Nationality: India
Country of Chargeability: India
Applicant Type: primary
Service Center: Nebraska
Category: EB2
Priority Date: 08 Nov 2007
Application Filed: 30 Nov 2011
USCIS Received Date: 01 Dec 2011
USCIS Notice Date: 06 Dec 2011
I-485 Status: approved
I-485 Approval/Denial Date: 21 Feb 2012
Card Production Ordered: 21 Feb 2012
Total Time to Get GC: 83 days

Awesome news...Nishant bhai bahut bahut badhai ho. Enjoy the day my friend :).
02-21-2012, 07:21 PM
zenmaster

Congratulations Nishant & your family !!!

jalsa karo have :) party hard ;)
02-21-2012, 07:22 PM
nishant2200

thanks gcseeker and friends, I posted in post 485 filing thread this news. we can carry forth the party there :D

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcseeker

Awesome news...Nishant bhai bahut bahut badhai ho. Enjoy the day my friend :).

Quote:

Originally Posted by zenmaster

Congratulations Nishant & your family !!!

jalsa karo have :) party hard ;)
02-21-2012, 07:23 PM
nishant2200

http://www.niwus.com/USCIS_Updates201107.html

Notice, they say they do 140 and 485 sequentially, not in parallel.

This definitely is helping folks like us whose 140 is already approved, and pegging back the ROW behind, I feel. putting here for experts' opinions.
02-21-2012, 07:25 PM
nishant2200

Guys, thanks a lot. Greatly appreciate it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by polapragada

congrats nishant

Quote:

Originally Posted by kd2008

Yay! Congrats Nishant!

From trackitt!

User: nish2200
Nationality: India
Country of Chargeability: India
Applicant Type: primary
Service Center: Nebraska
Category: EB2
Priority Date: 08 Nov 2007
Application Filed: 30 Nov 2011
USCIS Received Date: 01 Dec 2011
USCIS Notice Date: 06 Dec 2011
I-485 Status: approved
I-485 Approval/Denial Date: 21 Feb 2012
Card Production Ordered: 21 Feb 2012
Total Time to Get GC: 83 days

Quote:

Originally Posted by TorreyPines

You asked, I responded. - GOD. ;)

Quote:

Originally Posted by feedmyback

Many Many Congratulations Nishant!!!! Looks like it is a good time to pray to GOD!!! :) God please make me current in April bulletin :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by kkruna

Congrats Nishant!!
02-21-2012, 07:34 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

thanks gcseeker and friends, I posted in post 485 filing thread this news. we can carry forth the party there :D

nishant,

Congratulations, you sly old dog!!
02-21-2012, 07:41 PM
nishant2200

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

nishant,

Congratulations, you sly old dog!!

:D

Thou art Supreme sir!

I accept your wishes with the most gracious heartfelt thanks.

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