when will be the April i-485 inventory be available to us publicly ?
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when will be the April i-485 inventory be available to us publicly ?
Usually mid-MayQuote:
Originally Posted by krishn
The last 2 inventories were published about 5 weeks after the end of the quarter.Quote:
Originally Posted by krishn
Around the first week of May, if it follows that trend.
What's your forecast for EB3-I?
I am getting tired of this pretending game.Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Any guess how far EB3 I might move if it moves?
Thanks
Amul
I thought it was time for an EB3 post.Quote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suva2001
Quote:
Originally Posted by amulchandra
The questions above look deceptively simple - except they aren't.
The answer is obviously that it depends on how many visas are available for EB3-I.
That in turn depends on how many visas other Countries are going to use?
The problem is that it is not obvious what the answer is to the last question.
Let's take the Countries in turn.
EB3-China
They'll probably get extra due to under use in FB-China. Lets say they use an extra 500-600, similar to last year - so 3.5k
EB3-Mexico
I haven't got a clue. Let's say they also use about 3.5k.
EB3-Philippines
It's fairly clear EB3-P have already received about as many approvals as they will in the FY, due to the 7 year retrogression in May. EB3-P are bounded by hitting the overall 7% limit, so we're looking at 6-6.5k approvals for EB3-P.
EB3-India
Let's also assume that, initially, EB3-I also receive some extra numbers from FB and can use 3.5k without exceeding the 7% overall limit.
EB3-ROW
That leaves EB3-ROW allocation left within the overall EB3 limit as 41.4 - (3.5*3) - 6.5 = 24.4k (+ or - 1-2k)
So, the amount under 24.4k that EB3-ROW uses (assuming EB3 uses all numbers) would be available to add to the 3.5k EB-I number.
The Problems
Here's the problem. I don't think there is yet any good evidence of how many cases EB3-ROW (and EB3-M) have each month now.
Another problem is that EB3-ROW/M were retrogressed until December 2014 and with about 6/7 months processing time for an I-485 currently, those cases filed in December won't start to be approved in any numbers until May/June 2015.
The previous retrogression for 6 months is. IMO, why EB3-ROW approvals have been fairly low to date this FY. Maybe 6-7k have been approved to date. There also still appear to be quite a few older cases yet to be approved.
That gives gives 4/5 months of potentially higher EB3-ROW approvals (May/June-Sept). In the 4/5 months Dec 2014 to Mar/Apr 2015, the VB COD moved 17-23 months for EB3-ROW/M.
That means those cases can potentially be approved within the current FY.
At 30% of the ROW PERM, EB3-ROW would have about 800 cases per PD month allowing for some wastage. That translates to a potential 13.6 to 18.4k approvals towards the end of FY2015.
At the top end of all the calculations, that is actually enough to use all the available visas for EB3-ROW (7k + 18k = 25k vs 24.4k available).
At the bottom end EB3-I receive quite a healthy amount of FA and could receive at least as many (if not slightly more) than the approx 8k total received in FY2013.
800/month may be far too high a number.
My gut feel is that it will be near the top end, considering all factors and USCIS processing.
But, frankly, it's a guess. I've used some figures that might give the illusion of knowledge. That's not true - I'd rather call it an illustration by way of an example.
I do want people to understand that an increase in EB3-ROW approvals is expected - the volume is the unknown and therefore so is the scale of FA potentially available to EB3-I.
Finally, please feel free to think the above is a load of rubbish - it could well be. I do hope that it provides some points for you consider when you ponder the issue.
I'm sure I'll regret laying my thoughts out - so be it. People are rightly asking the question and not receiving a reply.
Thanks for the analysis Spec !
--Another EB3-I soul ( May 2004 PD )
Thanks Spec.
One thing I didn't understand how EB3-P can use 6-6.5K in this FY. Shouldn't they be limited to 3K due to 7% limit?
thank you Spec.
So if we put all the pieces of info and analysis together, it looks like the CO cannot move the dates till last quarter/month to use up the spill-over/fall-across. So all in all we may see a 5k - 8k FA for EB3I this FY15.
So the EB3I dates in sept15 bulletin may jump anywhere to jun04 - Oct04.Again this is purely speculation take the info for wat its worth.
Spec! Thank you very much for your analysis.
2004 is a big mountain for EB3 I. If it is cleared I am hoping it will move LITTLE faster next FY. My PD is July 2006. Hoping to see it current by the end of next FY.
Amul
Suva,Quote:
Originally Posted by Suva2001
That's because while it is convenient to think of the 7% limit as applying individually in each Category (i.e. 2,803 in EB3 in a normal year with no extra FB visas), it isn't.
CO interprets the law as 7% of the sum of FB and EB visas, so when that is 226,000 + 140,000 then 7% is 25,620.
Keeping it simple and considering EB only, that could be thought of as 7% of 140,000 or 9,800. That's basically the case for Philippines because they use their FB allocation.
EB-Philippines can therefore use a total of 9,800 visas within EB and still be considered within the 7% limit.
Philippines use relatively few visas in EB1, EB2, EB4 and EB5, so they can use quite a few in EB3 and still not breach the 7% limit.
As an example from FY2014 when 7% was calculated as 26,337 overall (and 10,517 derived from EB): (see the September 2014 VB)
Philippines
EB1 ----- 262
EB2 --- 1,972
EB3 --- 5,685
EB4 ----- 251
EB5 ------- 2
Total - 8,172
As you can see, despite using 5,685 visas in EB3, Philippines was well inside the prorated EB limit of 10,517. In fact, Philippines could have used a further 2,345 visas and still been within the 7% limit as interpreted.
South Korea received 11,786 EB visas in FY2014. Although that appears to be more than 7%, it is not, because the overall 7% limit was 26,337 and South Korea only used 1,511 FB visas for a grand Total of 13,297. They could have used another 13,040 and still stayed within 7% because of their incredibly low FB use.
Personally, I think the current interpretation is a bit crazy, but that is what it is.
Amul,Quote:
Originally Posted by amulchandra
I guess it is, given the Inventory shows the highest yearly number for 2004.
My eye is always drawn to March 2005 which contains over 40% of 2005 numbers. That doesn't appear to be a mistake, since it was echoed in the IVAMS data DOS released for the Chinese EB3 lawsuit.
I suspect it has something to do with PERM being introduced in 2005.
PS I'd like to stress that I don't consider my prior post as befitting the title of analysis. Unconnected ramblings would be a better description.
gcq - i have a hunch .... this is going to be your year! For selfish reasons I hope you stay around this forum. But I will be glad if you are gone :)Quote:
Originally Posted by gcq
Q,
I'd completely echo your thoughts and sentiments.
Gurus,
Here are some calculations based on FY2013 & FY2014 usages vs Trackitt cases. Please see if it makes sense...
FY 2013 AOS+CP CP Trackitt Trackitt Total Visas Quota Total Visas Alloted* % EB3-I 416 3003 7816 206 5.32 EB3-C 13 2703 3229 1342 0.40 EB3-M 11 3003 3237 326 0.34 EB3-P 12 3003 5636 3547 0.21 EB3-ROW 276 31188 23822 3116 1.16 Totals 728 42900 43740 8537 1.66 *DOS FY 2014 AOS+CP CP Trackitt Trackitt Total Visas Quota Total Visas Alloted* % EB3-I 180 3003 3526 236 5.10 EB3-C 36 2703 3676 1273 0.98 EB3-M 11 3003 3738 231 0.29 EB3-P 19 3003 5685 2298 0.33 EB3-ROW 313 31188 26074 3050 1.20 Totals 559 42900 42699 7088 1.31 FY 2015 @ 4/14/2015 Estimated Estimated Trackitt Total Visas Quota Usage till Date Remaining EB3-I 72 2897 1410 1487 EB3-C 2 2597 204 2393 EB3-M 6 2897 2039 858 EB3-P 21 2897 6283 -3386 EB3-ROW 77 30105 6414 23691 Totals 178 41393 16351 25042
Q, Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
May your words come true ! I am likely to stay in this forum. There is a lot to learn from this forum especially the way you guys predict VB movement. At one point I thought nobody could predict these with so much accuracy given the lack of data and so many unknowns. Lot to learn for sure.
When the whole world/numbers are pointing to EB3-I bullish movement this FY, why there is only 1 week movement for past several bulletins ?
Krishn:
I think OP is being way over over over cautious.
I don't even understand why he didn't make EB3 ROW current two month ago since EB3 ROW is technically current since the PD is now way forward than Perm and I140 processing time.
Can the 'AILA liaison' ask this question on EB3ROW/EB3I movement/spillover to DOS Visa office(r) /(Charlie Oppenheimer) ?Quote:
Originally Posted by migo79
AILA asked this question in mid March, with the following replies:Quote:
Originally Posted by krishn
http://www.immigration-information.c...updates.17812/Quote:
What will it take for there to be movement in EB-3 India?
At this time, there is nothing which can be done to improve the India EB-3 cut-off date situation unless there is a legislative change. The amount of pre-adjudicated India EB-3 demand versus the annual limit prevents more than a one or two week monthly movement of this cut-off date. For example, at this time, more than 9,100 India EB-3 applicants with priority dates earlier than January 1, 2005 (alone) have already been reported to the visa Office and the FY2015 annual limit is approximately 2,875.
Do you foresee EB-3 Worldwide becoming current anytime soon? If so, what would that mean for EB-3 India?
Charlie does not anticipate that EB-3 Worldwide will become current anytime soon but the cut-off date could easily reach 2015. If the Worldwide EB-3 category ever becomes current then (and only then) any "otherwise unused" numbers could be made available to the India EB-3 category, which has the earliest EB-3 cut-off date.
I don't think he is going to give any other answer if asked again.
Quote:
What will it take for there to be movement in EB-3 India?
more of sorta follow up questions on the ones above, like , since eb3row is technically current ,what is eb3row demand and if its low ,why not move eb3i aggressively like 3 weeks per bulletin in anticipation of fall across ?Quote:
Do you foresee EB-3 Worldwide becoming current anytime soon? If so, what would that mean for EB-3 India?
Maybe it will. Someone in Trackitt with EB3I PD of 1/28/04 got RFE....Quote:
Originally Posted by krishn
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...-from-may-2015
My first post here. Regret not joining sooner because I've always admired Q, Spectator, and others for their insightful analyses. I guess I should pop the cherry with a question. It seems like the AoS pre-registration fix will be implemented this year. If so, will the deluge of new I-485 applications slow down processing of EB3RoW I-485 processing, reduce approvable EB3RoW demand, and increase the FA base available to EB3I?
perestroika,Quote:
Originally Posted by perestroika
I think it would slow all processing, period, unless extra staff are hired. A slowing of EB3-ROW processing would likely equally mean less EB3-I would be processed as well.
It may well be that extra contractors could entirely process the preregistration cases, since they won't require adjudication. In which case, approval of cases that are current would be much less affected. There wouldn't be a pressing need to process the preregistration cases all at once within especially tight time frames. If it takes a year or more it probably isn't a particularly big deal.
It's an interesting question - I don't know the answer - just throwing out some thoughts.
You mentioned preregistration. If visa recapture were to happen, I could see processing times escalating to years, particularly if the Cut Off Dates were just made Current for all Categories.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
My fear is that AoS pre-registration and EAD processing for new AoS applicants will screw up and effectively nullify any FA hopes EB3I has this year, even if USCIS hires extra contractors, because their onboarding and training will be at the hands of the existing staff. On the other hand, I suppose EB3I has a small advantage in that most of its demand is pre-approved, while the same cannot be said of EB3RoW. It's going to be one heck of a ride moving forward. AoS pre-registration fix, if it does happen, will significantly and permanently alter the visa bulletin dynamics.
Guru's,Quote:
Originally Posted by ROCK72
If there is no FA till what date will EB3I move this FY? Are Feb2004 and Mar2004 EB3-I guys getting rfe's ?
Thanks
looking at the i485 pending inventory from oct14, my guess is eb3i should move to march first week or april first week with no FA , depending on the still to be filed or already ported i485 counting errors!!Quote:
Originally Posted by krishn
Are Feb2004 and Mar2004 EB3-I PD'ers getting rfe's ?
I know one person at work place who got RFE with a March 2004 PD. I saw some one from April on trackitt.Quote:
Originally Posted by krishn
thanks, is the rfe for EVL and medicals ?Quote:
Originally Posted by amulchandra
Any FEB 2004 EB3I PD'ers getting RFE's ?
Thanks
Hi Spec,
I remember reading your post where you mentioned that Philippines may use the EB3 Row SO due to low demand in FB category. But looks like FB has enough demand that they had to retrogress dates. Do you think EB3 I will be the only candidate for EB3 ROW SO this year? Of course provided there is SO and all other applicable conditions stay the same.
Thanks
Amul
I have the same question.Quote:
Originally Posted by amulchandra
Amul,Quote:
Originally Posted by amulchandra
I did not say that Philippines would have low demand in FB. Philippines always use their FB allocation.
It's not technically correct to refer to EB3 Philippines as using ROW spillover.
Philippines are using visas within the overall 7% limit across FB and EB. Since they use their allocation for FB,it can be simplified to use of the 7% within EB.
Currently, the estimate of available EB visas for FY2015 is 144,730.
7% of that represents 10,131 visas available to Philippines in EB categories. Use of less than that number (however many might be in a specific Category such as EB3) is not a violation of the 7% limit.
In FY2014, Philippines used 8,172 visas within EB, of which 5,685 were in EB3, when the 7% limit within EB was 10,517.
Since EB3 as a whole has a fixed limit, the ability of Philippines to use more than the prorated 7% amount in EB3 reduces the number available to ROW, but that cannot be described as FA from ROW to Philippines. The same is also true of Mexico, but has not been much of an issue since they started to share the same COD as ROW in FY2011.
For FY2015, Philippines might use something like the following in the other Categories (historical use plus allowing a higher number for EB2 this FY):
EB1 ----- 250
EB2 --- 3,000
EB4 ----- 250
EB5 ------- 5
Total - 3,505
That theoretically leaves 6,626 that Philippines could use in EB3 and stay within the 7% limit.
A large part of EB-P use is by RN and PT who Consular Process in Manila. The rapid movement of the COD has increased the numbers of qualified applicants and many older cases have probably now re-qualified with new employers (having originally lost their sponsor). This has led to a surge of demand from EB3-P and necessitated retrogression. The NVC figures have always shown a huge number of CP cases (over 29k in Nov 2014). It's been a matter of speculation as to how many might be "dead" or "abandoned" cases.
EB3-Mexico have previously seen a similar situation. In FY2008 they were Unavailable for the final quarter and in both FY2009 and FY2010 they were made Unavailable from May to September, having used 5,325, 4,566 and 7,740 visas respectively.
India will be the only candidate for Fall Across from ROW within EB3. India applicants have the earliest PD and it's unlikely there will be sufficient FA to India in FY2015 will cause them to reach even the COD of 01JAN05 set for Philippines in the June VB. If they do, then both Countries will start to share FA.
Given all that we know today (PERM stats, EB3:EB2 ratio, January inventory, I-485 processing times, VB movement thus far, EB3P consumption), how much FA do you think EB3I will get from EB3RoW, and how far will the EB3I COD move in FY2015, in your view?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thanks a lot for your detail explanation Spec.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Amul
Spec, I was not aware of this. Thanks for explaining this. That means that there is a possiblity that EB3Row quota might have already reduced to such an extent that EB3Row has already reached the limit. In that case EB3-I might not receive any FA visas. Can this be a possibility?
Looks like all of the EVL , Medical RFE's for EB3I for FEB04 and Mar04 are from NSC. Any TSC rfe's for feb/mar/apr04 EB3I's?Quote:
Originally Posted by amulchandra
I think that seems unlikely based on the information that is available.Quote:
Originally Posted by Suva2001
Even if EB3-P used 6.5k and Mexico, China and India used the 3 k allocation, that is only 15.5k.
The allocation for EB3 is 41.4k, so ROW would have to reach 25.9k for there to be no FA.
Even though I do expect EB3-ROW approvals to increase, I don't see them reaching that figure. I wouldn't want to say exactly how many ROW might use, but I do still expect FA to India within EB3.
Given that EB2 is not expected to get a much spillover as the last few years, could it be that's why they are aggressively moving EB2 before the last quarter. CO has also mentioned that the dates will move slowly in the last coupla months for EB2. So I am wondering if they are giving out EB2's evenly till then and the last couple of months would be EB3 blitz time. Could it be that DOS and USCIS has already started working more closely as WH wanted?
Bumping this thread up in light of the RFEs EB3 I receiving. Any guesses as to what would be the PD movements in the next VB?
Thanks
Amul