EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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Originally Posted by Spectator

The Service Center Processing Times have been updated today.

As of March 31, 2015 the I-485 processing times for EB cases are :

NSC - November 16, 2014 (4.5 months)
TSC - August 15, 2014 (7.5 months)

Not that the dates necessarily ever bear any resemblance to reality!

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Looks like TSC will only approve ROW cases filed before 02/15/2015 by end of this FY. Is it an indicator for little more spillover than anticipated for EB2I?

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Originally Posted by bluelabel

Looks like TSC will only approve ROW cases filed before 02/15/2015 by end of this FY. Is it an indicator for little more spillover than anticipated for EB2I?

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bluelabel,

I think the answer to that would be a categorical yes and no. :confused:

Yes in the sense that had TSC processing times not lengthened, then it could have been worse.

No in the sense that despite that, EB2-non IC still appear to have received significant approvals this FY. The TSC times would have to continue to slip during the remainder of the FY.

If TSC processing times improve, it will inject even more cases at that time (but maybe that is next FY).

The problem is the processing times are notoriously inaccurate, although it does appear that TSC processing is quite slow at the moment.

Finally, we know that EB I-485 have been subject to transfer between SC - we don't know how many or where they were transferred from and who received them and when they received them. It could be that NSC now have more EB cases than TSC, but there is no way to tell whether that is the case (or not the case).

I wouldn't read too much into the processing times.

In all, what's the probability of PD reaching July 15,2009 this year?

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Originally Posted by jimmys

In all, what's the probability of PD reaching July 15,2009 this year?

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The only accurate answer to this question would be less than or equal to 100% .:cool: I would say less than 100% with a power of 90%.

Sorry, feeling a little nerdy. :D

I did not notice untill today that in last three months China EB2 moved almost a year in each Bulletin.

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Originally Posted by jimmys

In all, what's the probability of PD reaching July 15,2009 this year?

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Please see my projections for FY15 which was projected back in Dec'14: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...4877#post54877
I'm still sticking with that predictions as I don't see any significant change in ground realities since then. Also, I used the same mathematical model as I did for FY14 projections and it was 90% accurate. I'm confident this year also it will be as accurate as it was of last year.
Hence my answer to your question is 90% probability that your PD will get current this year.

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

Please see my projections for FY15 which was projected back in Dec'14: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...4877#post54877
I'm still sticking with that predictions as I don't see any significant change in ground realities since then. Also, I used the same mathematical model as I did for FY14 projections and it was 90% accurate. I'm confident this year also it will be as accurate as it was of last year.
Hence my answer to your question is 90% probability that your PD will get current this year.

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YT,

Good for you for sticking to your guns.

A couple of observations about the forecast.

a) You are predicting that EB2-NonIC will use around 24k (compared to 22k in FY2014). I believe that is a very low figure that is not borne out by what has been seen to date in the FY.

b) You show EB5 use as 11.5k, which is slightly over 1k more than the allocation. I'm not sure if you believe EB5 will be over allocated or not, or whether it is a minor error.

Hello Friends,
Sorry to post this question here. I will delete it later.

Can you please check the below query and confirm my understanding.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...Different-City


Thanks for your help!

YTeleven:
Thanks for your prediction and the link. I hope and wish it becomes 90% true again.

Query regarding the EB-5 spillover numbers.. Since EB5-C has cutoff date now, if X spillover visas are available in EB5 category before the end of year, will the excess numbers go to EB5-C or it will go to EB1 and continue from there?

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

Please see my projections for FY15 which was projected back in Dec'14: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...4877#post54877
I'm still sticking with that predictions as I don't see any significant change in ground realities since then. Also, I used the same mathematical model as I did for FY14 projections and it was 90% accurate. I'm confident this year also it will be as accurate as it was of last year.
Hence my answer to your question is 90% probability that your PD will get current this year.

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If someone has a pd of Dec 1st, 2009 then you have roughly 15K applications till then pending. I do understand that porting will add more applicants. So based on your calculations EB2 India will get roughly 16750. So will the dates move that far? All the calculations are showing June to July 2009 as the best case scenario.

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Originally Posted by idiotic

Query regarding the EB-5 spillover numbers.. Since EB5-C has cutoff date now, if X spillover visas are available in EB5 category before the end of year, will the excess numbers go to EB5-C or it will go to EB1 and continue from there?

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idiotic,

Understand that all EB5-China visas are Fall Across from other Countries in EB5.

In a normal year, EB5 would have 9,940 visas. 7% of that is 696 visas. Under the terms of the Chinese Student Protection Act, China's EB5 allocation is reduced by 700, so China start the FY with zero visas. The only visas available to them are those that other Countries in EB5 do not need.

Therefore, the setting of a Cut Off Date for EB5-China is saying they will use all visas from other Countries in EB5 that are spare. In other words, EB5 will use the total allocation available to it. In FY2015, that seems tp be about 10,275 based on 144,730 total EB visas.

Put another way, there will be no spare visas from EB5 to Fall Up to EB1.

To answer your original question, Fall Across within a Category is given a higher priority than Fall Up to another Category. That way, a Category will use the allocation given to it when there is still demand.

Hey Spec,
It would be nice to have the inventory report, wouldnt it? :)

Spec - just curious where you are getting the 144,730 number from?

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Originally Posted by Spectator

idiotic,

Understand that all EB5-China visas are Fall Across from other Countries in EB5.

In a normal year, EB5 would have 9,940 visas. 7% of that is 696 visas. Under the terms of the Chinese Student Protection Act, China's EB5 allocation is reduced by 700, so China start the FY with zero visas. The only visas available to them are those that other Countries in EB5 do not need.

Therefore, the setting of a Cut Off Date for EB5-China is saying they will use all visas from other Countries in EB5 that are spare. In other words, EB5 will use the total allocation available to it. In FY2015, that seems tp be about 10,275 based on 144,730 total EB visas.

Put another way, there will be no spare visas from EB5 to Fall Up to EB1.

To answer your original question, Fall Across within a Category is given a higher priority than Fall Up to another Category. That way, a Category will use the allocation given to it when there is still demand.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec - just curious where you are getting the 144,730 number from?

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Annual limits for FY2015.

http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/...cal_Limits.pdf

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Annual limits for FY2015.

http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/...cal_Limits.pdf

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Thanks Jagan. The visa bulletin still shows 140K only. That's why I asked.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Thanks Jagan. The visa bulletin still shows 140K only. That's why I asked.

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Q,

The VB will continue to show "at least 140,000" until DOS receives the information from USCIS needed to calculate the exact figure.

The official figure is usually only published in the September VB because USCIS are so slow in providing the required information. It took them until July 24th last year.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

idiotic,

Understand that all EB5-China visas are Fall Across from other Countries in EB5.

In a normal year, EB5 would have 9,940 visas. 7% of that is 696 visas. Under the terms of the Chinese Student Protection Act, China's EB5 allocation is reduced by 700, so China start the FY with zero visas. The only visas available to them are those that other Countries in EB5 do not need.

Therefore, the setting of a Cut Off Date for EB5-China is saying they will use all visas from other Countries in EB5 that are spare. In other words, EB5 will use the total allocation available to it. In FY2015, that seems tp be about 10,275 based on 144,730 total EB visas.

Put another way, there will be no spare visas from EB5 to Fall Up to EB1.

To answer your original question, Fall Across within a Category is given a higher priority than Fall Up to another Category. That way, a Category will use the allocation given to it when there is still demand.

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Spec, Why do you say that there will be no spillover from EB5 to EB1? EB5 has 10275 this FY, and as per the Jan 2015 inventory the total inventory for EB5 is 124 of which China is 66. I do understand having a cut-off for China, but no fall from EB5 to EB1 does not make sense to me. Can you explain this?

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Originally Posted by bikenlalan

Spec, Why do you say that there will be no spillover from EB5 to EB1? EB5 has 10275 this FY, and as per the Jan 2015 inventory the total inventory for EB5 is 124 of which China is 66. I do understand having a cut-off for China, but no fall from EB5 to EB1 does not make sense to me. Can you explain this?

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bikenlalan,

The Inventory does not provide any useful information for EB5.

Nearly 90% of EB5 cases are Consular Processed.

If you look at the NVC data as of November 1, 2014 EB5 already had 6,418 cases waiting for a visa abroad based on an approved I-526. Of these, 5,169 were for China.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

idiotic,

Understand that all EB5-China visas are Fall Across from other Countries in EB5.

In a normal year, EB5 would have 9,940 visas. 7% of that is 696 visas. Under the terms of the Chinese Student Protection Act, China's EB5 allocation is reduced by 700, so China start the FY with zero visas. The only visas available to them are those that other Countries in EB5 do not need.

Therefore, the setting of a Cut Off Date for EB5-China is saying they will use all visas from other Countries in EB5 that are spare. In other words, EB5 will use the total allocation available to it. In FY2015, that seems tp be about 10,275 based on 144,730 total EB visas.

Put another way, there will be no spare visas from EB5 to Fall Up to EB1.

To answer your original question, Fall Across within a Category is given a higher priority than Fall Up to another Category. That way, a Category will use the allocation given to it when there is still demand.

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Thanks for your time and detailed explnation Spec. Much appreciated.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

bikenlalan,

The Inventory does not provide any useful information for EB5.

Nearly 90% of EB5 cases are Consular Processed.

If you look at the NVC data as of November 1, 2014 EB5 already had 6,418 cases waiting for a visa abroad based on an approved I-526. Of these, 5,169 were for China.

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Okay, I get it now. Totally forgot about the CP cases. Thanks for the clarification.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

YT,

Good for you for sticking to your guns.

A couple of observations about the forecast.

a) You are predicting that EB2-NonIC will use around 24k (compared to 22k in FY2014). I believe that is a very low figure that is not borne out by what has been seen to date in the FY.

b) You show EB5 use as 11.5k, which is slightly over 1k more than the allocation. I'm not sure if you believe EB5 will be over allocated or not, or whether it is a minor error.

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Spec,

a) Even though the number 24k looks lower but if I see it as % of total EB2 it is 53% and last year it was only 43%. Also, considering the processing delays and other factors I am predicting that USCIS/DOS will not be able to allocate the visas beyond 54% of total EB2 visas to EB2-no-IC. They have to allocate remaining 46% to the EB2-IC before the midnight of Sep30th, 2015 to avoid the wastage of visas.
b) It will be the case of over allocation and the extra visas will be getting from EB4 as spillover to EB5.

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Originally Posted by aquatican

Hey Spec,
It would be nice to have the inventory report, wouldnt it? :)

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I don't think upcoming inventory report will have any useful info. In fact we have predictions for EB2I inventory data here :
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...3828#post53828

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Originally Posted by geterdone

If someone has a pd of Dec 1st, 2009 then you have roughly 15K applications till then pending. I do understand that porting will add more applicants. So based on your calculations EB2 India will get roughly 16750. So will the dates move that far? All the calculations are showing June to July 2009 as the best case scenario.

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I'm not predicting the PD movements, I'm only predicting what will be the total visas allocated to EB2-I this year. if you see my earlier posts I was also predicting that EB2-I inventory levels will drop to 9k by Sep30th and I'm still confident that it will reduce to that level, may be you can arrive the PD movement from this number.

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

Spec,

a) Even though the number 24k looks lower but if I see it as % of total EB2 it is 53% and last year it was only 43%. Also, considering the processing delays and other factors I am predicting that USCIS/DOS will not be able to allocate the visas beyond 54% of total EB2 visas to EB2-no-IC. They have to allocate remaining 46% to the EB2-IC before the midnight of Sep30th, 2015 to avoid the wastage of visas.
b) It will be the case of over allocation and the extra visas will be getting from EB4 as spillover to EB5.

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YT,

Thanks for the reply.

For point (a), I understand how you arrived at the number, but a % of a changing total number where the target is more static may not be relevant. Over the last 5 years (the period you are using), the average use by EB2-nonIC is 30k/year. Total numbers of visas available for EB2 has varied between 49k and 67k in an individual year over the same period.

Extra visas available to EB2 in any year are going to be used by India (predominantly). EB2-nonIC won't use more because extra visas are available. EB2-noniC use is affected more by changes in PERM and USCIS processing times.

If you strip away the differences due to varying Fall Down from EB1 and extra visas from FB (ranging from 0 to 18.5k), the average use by EB2-nonIC against the base allocation for EB2 of 40,040 becomes:

FY2010 - 27,406 - 68.4%
FY2011 - 34,550 -- 86.3%
FY2012 - 25,009 -- 62.5%
FY2013 - 42,641 - 106.5%
FY2014 - 21,983 -- 54.9%

Average - 30,318 - 75.7%

I hope you get my point, however badly explained.


For point (b), neither EB4 or EB5 can receive spillover from another Category. They can both only Spill Up spare numbers to EB1.

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INA: ACT 203 - ALLOCATION OF IMMIGRANT VISAS

(1) Priority workers. -

Visas shall first be made available in a number not to exceed 28.6 percent of such worldwide level, plus any visas not required for the classes specified in paragraphs (4) and (5), to qualified immigrants who are aliens described in any of the following subparagraphs (A) through (C):

(4) Certain special immigrants. -

Visas shall be made available, in a number not to exceed 7.1 percent of such worldwide level, to qualified special immigrants described in section 101(a)(27) (other than those described in subparagraph (A) or (B) thereof), of which not more than 5,000 may be made available in any fiscal year to special immigrants described in subclause (II) or (III) of section 101(a)(27)(C)(ii) , and not more than 100 may be made available in any fiscal year to special immigrants, excluding spouses and children, who are described in section 101(a)(27)(M) .

(5) Employment creation. -

(A) In general. - Visas shall be made available, in a number not to exceed 7.1 percent of such worldwide level, to qualified immigrants seeking to enter the United States for the purpose of engaging in a new commercial enterprise (including a limited partnership)--

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Note there is no language for EB4 and EB5 allowing them to use unused numbers from any other Category and EB1 says that they get unused visas from EB4 and EB5.

Spec,
Thanks for the info.
For point (b) I was not aware of this law. It is good to know that EB4 & EB5 can’t exceed beyond their quota and EB5 can’t get any spillover from EB4. I’ve corrected my estimation figures accordingly:
FY2015_Projected_Visa_Allocations_For_EB2-India_and_EB3-India_Version2

For point (a) I got your point but still I believe EB2-I will get 16k+ visas this year as I strongly relying on processing delays in spite of huge PERM demand.
Also, I’m quite confident that the EB1 numbers will not go beyond 39k (again I’m relying on processing delays here too)

Hello Gurus,

As of June 2015 VB my PD will be current. My PD July,14 2008. I-485, I-131 and I-765 were filed on July 30, 2014. I did my medical on 06/06/2014. Do you guys think i will get GC before my 1 year medical is expired? Will there an an RFE because of my medical?

YT,

Thanks for your reply.

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

Spec,
Thanks for the info.
For point (b) I was not aware of this law. It is good to know that EB4 & EB5 can’t exceed beyond their quota and EB5 can’t get any spillover from EB4. I’ve corrected my estimation figures accordingly:
FY2015_Projected_Visa_Allocations_For_EB2-India_and_EB3-India_Version2

For point (a) I got your point but still I believe EB2-I will get 16k+ visas this year as I strongly relying on processing delays in spite of huge PERM demand.
Also, I’m quite confident that the EB1 numbers will not go beyond 39k (again I’m relying on processing delays here too)

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For a layman, how far can the dates go this year with this many number of visas?

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Originally Posted by 4WatItsWorth

For a layman, how far can the dates go this year with this many number of visas?

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If the Spillover is around 16,000 then it should easily cross April, 2010

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Originally Posted by Spectator

asankaran,

I can't resist, I have to ask. :)

Could you explain how you came to that conclusion?

The Jan Inventory showed around 20k needed to reach April 1, 2010. At least 1k approvals had been made by that time and the Inventory figure won't include most porting cases.

PS It isn't 16k SO, it is 16k total EB2-I approvals (16,750 according to YT's breakdown).

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Hi Spec,

First I thought as you mentioned, SO is going to 16k. Second even if inventory shows 20,000 what I have noticed is they don't process everything to get it to zero. So if they move dates little bit more (3 months) to use available visas then there will not be any wastage of visas. Otherwise if they plan exactly for 16k they may have only 13-14k visas eligible for green card.

Thanks.

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

Please see my projections for FY15 which was projected back in Dec'14: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...4877#post54877
I'm still sticking with that predictions as I don't see any significant change in ground realities since then. Also, I used the same mathematical model as I did for FY14 projections and it was 90% accurate. I'm confident this year also it will be as accurate as it was of last year.
Hence my answer to your question is 90% probability that your PD will get current this year.

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YT,
I have to say that the estimate you provided back in Dec 2014 will not be close to reality in this FY. I feel the EB2 non-IC number is too low in your projections. The lower numbers for that category in previous year was because of lower PERM approvals and slow I-485 processing. In fact those PERM application in the pipeline will come back with vengeance in this FY and hit us big time.

You have predicted total EB2India visas of 16k and that relies heavily on the EB2 non-IC consumption.

YT,
30K seems to more of a realistic estimate for EB2 Non IC due to pent up demand from last year. What is your opinion on that?
We could be left with 6 - 8 K for Eb 2 India in that case.

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Originally Posted by aquatican

YT,
30K seems to more of a realistic estimate for EB2 Non IC due to pent up demand from last year. What is your opinion on that?
We could be left with 6 - 8 K for Eb 2 India in that case.

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See the last 5 year numbers for EB2-I:
MIN: 17193, MAX: 23997 & AVG: 20881

Statistically speaking this year number should be around the average or at the least at the minimum level unless we see any significant change in the system which is different from last 5 years. I don't see any such changes here and hence I do believe the numbers will be around 16k for EB2-I. If at all any system wide change that will spoil this number, it will be the newly introduced expiry dates for medicals.

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

See the last 5 year numbers for EB2-I:
MIN: 17193, MAX: 23997 & AVG: 20881

Statistically speaking this year number should be around the average or at the least at the minimum level unless we see any significant change in the system which is different from last 5 years. I don't see any such changes here and hence I do believe the numbers will be around 16k for EB2-I. If at all any system wide change that will spoil this number, it will be the newly introduced expiry dates for medicals.

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YT,

There are factors for FY2015 that are significantly different from the last 5 years.

a) There are no longer any spare visas from EB5.

b) FY2011 was an aberration for EB1 because of Kazarian and has never been repeated.

c) The 5 year period contains wildly different numbers of extra FB visa that average about double the number available for FY2015.

Corrected for those factors and with the number of extra FB visas for FY2015, the 5 year average drops to half the headline figure of 21k.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

YT,

There are factors for FY2015 that are significantly different from the last 5 years.

a) There are no longer any spare visas from EB5.

b) FY2011 was an aberration for EB1 because of Kazarian and has never been repeated.

c) The 5 year period contains wildly different numbers of extra FB visa that average about double the number available for FY2015.

Corrected for those factors and with the number of extra FB visas for FY2015, the 5 year average drops to half the headline figure of 21k.

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Any thoughts on YT's EB3I prediction? Anyone?

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Originally Posted by Spectator

YT,

There are factors for FY2015 that are significantly different from the last 5 years.

a) There are no longer any spare visas from EB5.

b) FY2011 was an aberration for EB1 because of Kazarian and has never been repeated.

c) The 5 year period contains wildly different numbers of extra FB visa that average about double the number available for FY2015.

Corrected for those factors and with the number of extra FB visas for FY2015, the 5 year average drops to half the headline figure of 21k.

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Spec,

I know where you are coming from. It’s true that we have a reason for every year why EB2-I got so many visas for the last 5 years. I'm hoping that we will figure it out a reason for EB2-I getting 16k visas in FY15 when we discuss this topic in Dec'15. As of now I don't know what is that single big reason which will cause this, I'm thinking it is the processing delays or the efficiency of the USCIS to convert the demand into visas in time. One more factor I want to add here is (which is positive for EB2-I): PERM ratio of INDIA:ROW, in FY08 it was 34:60 and it gradually reversed and in FY15: it is 60:32 (based on FY15Q2 PERM stats). IMO, we all are worrying of this 32% being converted into GC Visas and consume all supply leaving no spillover to EB2-I. On the flip side consider the other 68% will go till I-140 ONLY but at the same time they will clog the system and block the approvals of remaining 32%, creating the processing delays.

I did consider the above factors you mentioned before arriving at the figure 16k and hence I made it to 4k lesser from past average(21k) and 7k lesser from previous year value(23.5k). I don't believe these factors/changes in the system will make EB2-I to get ONLY 10k or lesser in FY15. If it happens it will be a history and we were discussing this will happen for the last 2 years and we haven't seen it happening and my belief is that it will not happen in near future. Also, if we see the past 2 years pattern: FY13:EB2-I:17k, FY14:EB2-I:24k, anybody could predict the pattern for next 2 years based on PERM demand as follows: FY15:EB2-I:10k , FY16:EB2-I:24k But I was predicting something different here: FY15:EB2-I:16k , FY16:EB2-I:18k (stabilizing the fluctuations due to underlying processing characteristics)

This discussion has warranted me to provide a pessimistic view on these predictions and here is another chart I projected with pessimistic view and still I came up with at least 14k visas:
FY2015_Projected_Visa_Allocations_For_EB2-India_and_EB3-India_PESSIMISTIC_VIEW
I see your point on EB2-Row numbers (your approach is ideal one) but somehow I'm so reluctant to guess any lesser number for EB2-I. Let’s wait and see how it goes.

WhereismyGC forecast updated. For details view ..

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...5787#post55787

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

This discussion has warranted me to provide a pessimistic view on these predictions and here is another chart I projected with pessimistic view and still I came up with at least 14k visas:
FY2015_Projected_Visa_Allocations_For_EB2-India_and_EB3-India_PESSIMISTIC_VIEW

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Still looks like 6k FA to EB3I. So the EB3I dates may move into Oct2004 by Sept2015.

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

I don't believe these factors/changes in the system will make EB2-I to get ONLY 10k or lesser in FY15. If it happens it will be a history

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Has happened in the past. Please refer the 2009 annual report statistics. EB2I got 10,106 visas in FY2009.