It is as real as USCIS wants it to be. Wasting numbers is not a new thing. Let's really hope that at least 50% of the available visas are issued in all the categories.
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Thank you all for clarifying. If we sure shot will get SO , then I will stop worrying about such news.
I wanted to share some positive news. Last week I received my 485 Approval notices.
I personally wanted to Thank Q and Spec for all their efforts and help in getting this community move forward. I learned a lot through this forum and I helped some of my friends.
Throughout the journey, I made some mistakes, but in the last mile, I made sure I was one step ahead of the game and got my 485 approved.
My first PERM was supposed to be in 2006 and I did not push my management to get the Perm done and in 2007 when I was ready for PERM I requested my employer if there are any unused PERMS which I could use. Employer mentioned to me there are 3 PERMS and I can use them if I my experience falls in any one of the categories to support the documentation. I was out of the country and when I returned back, guess what was new policy!!! PERMS cannot be transferable.
In 2007 my PERM started and due to the economic meltdown and recession, my perm was on hold. In 2009 my company lawyer literally HUNTED me down and begged me to file PERM, I was so absorbed in the carrier goals and aspects and forgot about PERM. If I have to say THANKS she will be the first person. My management put tons of hurdles to stop the PERM and she fought on my behalf and got the PERM done in a timely fashion. At one point my company attorney threatened the company that the company is liable for a civil lawsuit if the company doesn't act accordingly.
In 2011, a bright ambitious guy moved to a new company and in the process, he forgot to push HR about the PERM. Guess who missed the GC filing slot in 2012. You guessed it correctly.
I learned my lesson the hard way and since then I focussed much of my time with family and started running the numbers when and where the dates are and started using this forum for more analysis and forecasting.
In 2014, I changed the company and made sure my PERM was started after the 90 day wait period.
Around Jan 2018, I was 100% confident that by September 2018, my dates will become current under the EB3 category. However, I was a couple of months early to my predictions. My date became current in Nov 2018. Around March 2018, I went to my company management and requested to start the downgrade process and the company HR said the company policy is "no two I-140's for the same employee". It took me 6 months to request them to change and show them the cost-benefit and get the approval. Around Oct 2018, my company finally approved my second I-140 i.e. to downgrade the application. In Nov 2018 My company immigration attorney sent me a form to sign the I-140, I told them "I will sign the document after seeing the Visa Bulletin" and I told them I'm more than 100% confident that my date under EB3 will be current. In a couple of days, Bulletin got released and my date became current. Since I fought and got my downgrade process, some of my colleagues took advantage of the new policy and they got their downgrading started. Around Dec 2018, I filed my I-485.
Believe me, since then I made numerous calls to USCIS to get the ball rolling. My fingerprint was delayed by a week, and made sure the I got fingerprint within the next 10 days. My interview dates were delayed by a month, guess who was on the phone. I did not hesitate to call them when I felt something was needed. This month My final action date was current and I called USCIS on OCT1st and raised the SR. This was my last mile, I was one step ahead of the game plan since Jan 2018.
When some of my colleagues were filing for their PERMS, I literally begged them to file PERM ASAP, and not to argue with the management about the EB2/EB3 category. I advised many folks to file PERM and get the date locked. I advised them if you miss a date by a single day, it could lead you to wait for a month or decade. Some of my colleagues followed my advice and some ignored my advice.
Believe me on Sept 24th when Bulletin was released my phone kept ringing from morning 7:30 AM to 11:30 PM, some of my colleagues called to Thank me and some to know the process of downgrading, some of my friends called to learn the process and asking my inputs. Around Sept 29th, my company said they changed the Policy back to " No two I-140's", but I kept telling my colleagues to keep pushing and some managers were directly in touch with me on how to get the ball rolling, etc..
A couple of days later the company gave in and allowed my colleagues to downgrade the applications. Since Sept 24th I'm getting calls from some of my old friends and they wanted to know the process and asking for help in getting their company to agree to downgrade. I kept calling them and advising accordingly.
Lessons I learned during my GC process. Never give up and keep your spirits high up.
1.) Never delay in filing the PERM.
2.) if you change the company, act fast and swiftly in getting your PERM filed and approved. Always assume your date will be current in the next bulletin or else you will sloppy with filing.
3.) When your date is current, and after you file I-485, keep up with activities and make sure the USCIS is working on your application.
4.) When talking to USCIS, you don't tell them what should happen, ask them where your file should be (in which stage). If your file is behind, I'm pretty sure they will feel guilty and work on your file.
Good Luck to all new filers and Best wishes to all of you.
Keep this community grow and increase your immigration knowledge.
redsox,
Many, many congratulations on your approval. What a relief.
I'm genuinely pleased for you personally.
Thanks for telling your story. What a journey! I think your point about continuing to own the process is well made and applies to many things outside the immigration journey as well.
I feel you are one of the few kindred spirits left who analyze the diminishing data that's left. I hope you'll stick around for a while to continue doing so.
All the best
Spec
On Sept 24th, my wife was not a happy person as the phone was ringing continuously and on that, she begged me not to take any more calls or do Immigration stuff. On Sept 24th I did not focus on my kid's classes and they missed few classes and she has every right to scream at me.
Yesterday I was on a call with one of my relatives and talking to him, during the conversation multiple times I had to correct him wrt Immigration topic and then I decided " I SHOULD KEEP DOING THE NUMBER ANALYZING and WILL DO THE NUMBERS ANALYZING".
redsox,
Many congratulations!
Congratulations redsox2009.
Congratulations Redsox.
That time of the month , where we can start speculating / predicting /calculating the dates for the next month 😂
What do the gurus think ? What would ‘rapid movement’ mean according to USCIS ?
Congratulations !!! Very inspiring.
wow... great narration of your timeline. Really appreciate your time and effort put in to writing your experiences.
I was wondering why you took initiative to call USCIS several times as mentioned below? Was that to get your case moving or to find out where it stood? Request to share the purpose of the calls. Thank you.
Redsox,
I am in awe!! First off all congratulations on your freedom .. I can draw some parallels with your journey but man... your preserverance, learning from mistakes and never loosing hope has become the mantra for EB community in recent times and your journey is a cherishable one.. Thanks for sharing it with us all!!
Cheers,
V
Any late 2009/ Jan 2010 EB3 filers who are current this month, but never had an AOS interview, have gotten their I485 approved?
Congratulations Redsox2009.. Agree on all your points .. yes was ignorant like you and many others.. did not file from 2006 and ended up late, filed early 2011 (6th year of H1b)... hard lessons learnt.. but i push everyotger person i know not to delay there GC..
Finally applied fir my 485 .. will follow your advice to keep up with USCIS...
By the way did you post any number crunching with new upgrade scenario ?how you forsee FAD date movements.. when you get a chance do share your perspective
Exact on 10/8 we received email and submitted via email and printed copy on 10/14
Did receive email of confirmation
Still waiting
I am waiting for visa bulletin too
With PD of oct 2010-eb3, I want to submit my medicals too and not wait for rfe
As like you and many others (inspiring backgrounds) that went thru similar situations, came here in 2006 but none to guide thru the process and mention the importance of PERM. I was in an assumption that if I worked 5+ years then I would become eligible for EB2 - thinking about those 2007-08 missing the boat days, i feel like a moron and cry within about my ignorance. Finally after so much struggle and failed PERM attempts, I filed the case during my 6th yr of H1b in May2011. Moved many employers and locations and about to file my 485 this month based on Oct'20 bulletin. My GC journey hasn't ended but reading you guys experiences does make a difference to many passive readers like me and provides confidence.
I think the company (and HR) that sponsors for H1 should also educate on the GC and PERM possibilities.
[QUOTE=redsox2009;67419]I wanted to share some positive news. Last week I received my 485 Approval notices.
[QUOTE=FlowerPot;67444]As like you and many others (inspiring backgrounds) that went thru similar situations, came here in 2006 but none to guide thru the process and mention the importance of PERM. I was in an assumption that if I worked 5+ years then I would become eligible for EB2 - thinking about those 2007-08 missing the boat days, i feel like a moron and cry within about my ignorance. Finally after so much struggle and failed PERM attempts, I filed the case during my 6th yr of H1b in May2011. Moved many employers and locations and about to file my 485 this month based on Oct'20 bulletin. My GC journey hasn't ended but reading you guys experiences does make a difference to many passive readers like me and provides confidence.
I think the company (and HR) that sponsors for H1 should also educate on the GC and PERM possibilities.
Same Story repeated almost with everyone :) , I came here as a graduate student in Jan 2003 , working since 2005, naively had no clue about PERM/GC backlog.. it was an afterthought because H1-B will expire. Looking back now I really chuckle at my naiveness . Same story two fold is true for my wife.
And from my experience, most times companies do not have employees best interest at heart, they are not the right people to educate.
Similar story as everyone, tried to file GC in 2006,couldnt complete the process and joined new company and waited too long to file,finally did it in dec 2009. still waiting for the GC
What are the predictions for EB3 ?
In oct 2019 Eb3 row , Philippines and Vietnam were current then had a April 2019 as a date in sept 2020.
Assuming ~5000 visas allowed to india China Philippines and Vietnam that’s 20K visas per country ;
I am assuming worst case scenario 20K visas will be allotted to EB3 ROW ( 1 year demand ) to make it current.
That’s leave additional 20K visas to be given to the most backlog category ( EB3-I).
Is this rough math correct ?
Congratulations Red Sox. Great news. Thanks for sharing.
@YTEleven, EB3 March 2011 here. Any chances of FAD reaching our dates by Oct 2021?
Hello gurus/pandits,
priority date: Eb2 Dec 2009
How about doing medicals now ( responded to medical RFE in July 2018)as a proactive measure in the anticipation of forwarding movement in EB2? As the medicals are valid for two years, and hopefully EB2 move to December 09 by the end of 2021...any thoughts?
How do you get to that ?
I calculated around 64K each for EB1 , EB2 and EB3 . 7% rule limits visa to 5K for the backlogged countries ( india, China , Vietnam and Philippines and maybe Mexico). Rest 40K are available for EB3- ROW to avail as many as they want. I figure they might use up 20K AOS max ; as many consulates are closed. So rest of the 20-25K should go to most backlogged country in the category that is EB3-I. So only ~30K to EB3-I and not 50k according to your calculations
Smuggymba,
I did file for AC21 rightaway when i switched jobs. I had an RFE in 2018 for Supplement J and provided the Supp J after the .
I did exactly per my attorney's recommendation. My 2 cents is for you to do the same ASAP - atleast AC21.
Plz do consult with your attorney before making final decision.
Why only 64K? why not this: 75K +75K +75K+18K+18K = 261K.
The logic behind my numbers is this:
In any normal processing year, "EB others" will get max 125K yearly and most of those are new applications but this year even though there is abundant of visa supply "EB Others" demand will be less due to various reasons and eventually they all may consume just 111K visas and the remaining 150K should go to India. I'm not calculating at the granular level, key here is to predict how many visas others will consume and the rest of the visas are for India.
Understood. Make sense. It all depends on how the FB spillover is used across the backlogged countries I guess. Based on the rules all the spillover after the 7% limit is counted for other countries should go to India applicants in EB2 and EB3 categories; and EB2 should get some more based on how many are unused in EB-1 as well .
Both EB2 and EB3 FAD should move rapidly based on this.
YT - My PD is Dec 2, 2011( in EB2) . My company has started working on EB3 downgrade but am not sure if they shall be able to file before 31st Oct .
Having said that , If things return to pre-covid times (consulates open ,etc..) by March 2021 then do you see FD/FAD dates move any further or do you see halt / retrogress ?
In other words , are we saying that for FY21 atleast we are already set for good despite things returning to normal by early spring or summer ?