Spec, Thank you . Great news.
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Spec, Thank you . Great news.
good to hear some positive news its been a while.
From murthy in Nov2012:
I wonder if CO had this in mind when he mentioned there might be 13k SO back in October, it does match exactly with FB extra numbers--18k if you remove 5k--which would go to EB3 that would leave 13k to EB2IC. Also he must have looked at Fy2012 EB1/EB2ROWMP/EB5/EB4 consumption and estimated similar usage in FY2013 for those categories which will give nearly 0 spill over from regular EB1/EB2ROWMP/EB5/EB4 numbers--100k, but i think this is not true there might be around 4-7k SO from regular numbers had there been no FB extra numbers.Quote:
http://www.murthy.com/2012/11/02/pri...ions-for-fy13/
Excess Visa Numbers Estimated for EB2 India and China
Overall, the expectations are that EB2 India and China will benefit from some excess visa numbers shifting from EB1 and EB2 ROW. However, the volume of such excess is expected to be even less in FY13 than it was in FY12. In FY12, EB2 India and China each received approximately 19,000 visa numbers. The vast majority of these were due to shifting excess numbers into EB2 India and China. At this time, the DOS estimates that a total of 13,000 visa numbers will be available to EB2 India and China in FY13. This is subject to change - either up or down - depending upon the usage in the other categories, as explained here.
Spec, has anything changed with respect to EB1/EB2ROWMP consumption so far can we still assume that they are going to give around 2-3k SO--technically from EB1 excluding FB extra numbers.
Excellent news Spec. This was welcome news especially after the pessimistic prediction made by CO for future date movement in the latest visa bulletin.
I really don't know why he is giving out negative news (i.e. dates may have to be retrogressed etc) when there is definitely going to be SPILL OVER from other EB categories (like EB1, EB5 and EB2 ROW etc) and the visa numbers recovery from FB category not utilized in 2012.
Does anyone know what advantage he gets by scaring the EB2I guys?
:mad:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
openaccount,Quote:
Originally Posted by openaccount
I'm in the middle of a crisis at the moment, so I don't have the time presently to look at the numbers fully.
That said, the FY2012 figures appear to have improved most things IMO.
The figures below relate to a normal 140k allocation. 18.5k extra from FB would add another potential 13.2k spillover (EB3 get an extra 5.3k).
In my usual conservative style ( it could well be better):
EB1
Difficult to call, since FY2013 is the first "proper" year since Kazarian. FY2011 was low (25k) due to that and FY2012 (40k) was probably high due to the after effects. Hopefully EB1 could provide at least 5k.
EB4
Again, EB4 didn't use their full allocation (which was slightly surprising), so they may give some spillover in FY2013. Let's say 2k.
EB5
EB5 is likely to use close to their full allocation.
That means at least 20k spillover available to EB2, including extra FB numbers.
EB2-WW
They might potentially use a small amount of spillover due to the extra numbers flowing into FY2013 because of retrogression.
It's looking quite promising from an initial look.
Hope it gets resolved soon. Thank you for the detailed analysis.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec,
Hope your crisis would be resolved soon, not just saying to be mean, but sincerely hope that because you have helped everyone always.
Your recent post on FB spillover has changed everyone's EMOTIONAL status, in positive way.Its big...giant news..next atleast 200 posts are going to be just about this...my prediction here.
Thanks for your analysis and efforts, you have been a BIG help.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec great Job as usual
its the best news since the last surge in EB2 - I last year.Lets hope we get out of this mess soon.
Thanks Q and Spec
Based on Q's update - Spill Over expected: 15K (excluding annual quota to EB2I/C which we assume that is give to porters from now on till September 2013)
Based on Spec's data:
Spill over from FB to EB2I/C: 13K
Total available from spill over 28K(excluding normal allocation which is given to porters as we know from last 3 months same date hence monthly quota = porters demand)
Demand from March 2013 DOS data up to 1st January 2009 is : 23,975
Assume 4 months demand is 4,000(conservative figure),
Most likey September bulletin will have EB2 cut off date would be May 1st 2009.
By this time: Pray that CIR would be in place- mainly to remove country cap
Or else, porters might increase exponentially and make PD dates go back again to 2005 making this a yo yo game.
Quote:
Originally Posted by harapatta2012
Just to show why I am so excited about the FB figures (save any changes that CIR could make to the law), here is an analysis of expected extra visas from FB (calculated from the DOS Visa Statistics) versus Actual extra visa received.
------------ Stats --- Actual
FY2008 -- 22,707 --- 22,704
FY2009 ------- 0 -------- 0
FY2010 -- 10,667 --- 10,657
FY2011 ------- 0 -------- 0
FY2012 --- 4,958 ---- 4,951
FY2013 -- 18,465 ---- ?????
Thanks Spec for finding this hidden treasure. It seems we have to wait till Aug'13 VB or may be Sep'13 VB to see these numbers become official.
For IC, the demand is 27,475 til Jan 1, 2009.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bvsamrat
I hope CO looks into this hidden treasure and starts moving dates in steps earlier, rather than one large push with random approvals and retrogress again. But based on message from latest bulletin, looks like CO is not keen into looking into spillover in Q3.
Smaller moves theoretically means more porters get in to the demand pipeline. I see major movements in the Aug and Sept VBs.Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_soon
I am stoked about this as well! If we really get to 2009 by the end of FY13, then I am hopeful that July 2009 PD can be had some time in 2014, irrespective of CIR!Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
This might help people understand how the extra visas would be distributed:Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
--------- 158.5k ---- 140k ----- Diff
EB1 ----- 45,321 --- 40,040 ---- 5,281
EB2-C ---- 3,172 ---- 2,803 ------ 369
EB2-I ---- 3,172 ---- 2,803 ------ 369
EB2-M ---- 3,172 ---- 2,803 ------ 369
EB2-P ---- 3,172 ---- 2,803 ------ 369
EB2-ROW - 32,633 --- 28,828 ---- 3,805
EB4 ----- 11,251 ---- 9,940 ---- 1,311
EB5 ----- 11,251 ---- 9,940 ---- 1,311
Extra -- 113,144 --- 99,960 --- 13,184
EB3 ----- 45,321 --- 40,040 ---- 5,281
Totals - 158,465 -- 140,000 --- 18,465
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
While this is a great news, I have a lame question. If there are additional visas from FB wouldn't that be added to EB at the beginning of FY2013? That being said I guess the Demand Data should show estimated allocation numbers for each category as some 3200 visas and not 2,803. If I remember correctly, this is how it used to be represented on DD whenever there are additional visas from FB to EB historically. Is CO fooling around or am I not reading into it correctly?
Cheers,
Prabhas,Quote:
Originally Posted by Prabhas
It's a fair question.
Although CO must know about the numbers, DOS cannot officially announce the revised figure for EB until USCIS provides some figures required for the calculation (even though it has very little effect on the number). That is generally quite late in the year. Quite why it takes USCIS 11 months to provide this information is completely beyond me!
For example, last year, the extra numbers were not announced until the September VB. Until then, it just said "at least 140,000". From the September 2012 VB:
CO created a lot of problems by releasing numbers too early last year, so he seems to be very cautious this year as a result.Quote:
D. DETERMINATION OF THE NUMERICAL LIMITS ON IMMIGRANTS REQUIRED UNDER THE TERMS OF THE IMMIGRATION AND NATIONALITY ACT (INA)
The State Department is required to make a determination of the worldwide numerical limitations, as outlined in Section 201(c) and (d) of the INA, on an annual basis. These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the CIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On August 8th, CIS provided the required data to VO.
The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference numerical limits for FY-2012 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. These numerical limitations for FY-2012 are as follows:
Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 144,951
Under INA Section 202(A), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2012 the per-country limit is 25,967. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,419.
Its been a long time since I've seen any positive news in the blog - thanks to Spec's work!!! Hang in there friends - the wait is not not going to last forever.
Good luck to all!
Spec,
Just curious, how come FB category doesn't use all available visas when none of those sub-categories are ever current?
Processing delays? Just thinking.Quote:
Originally Posted by kuku82
How will the movement of dates be starting FY 2014?
DOS cannot move dates like last year because there will be documentarily qualified cases(more than 10K) as per demand data but no visa numbers will be available at the beginning of FY 2014 to issue to them making a impediment for building future backlog of qualified cases.
Please throw some light on this.
Thanks Spec for giving some hope for all of us. It all based on when CO gets the information from USCIS about these available numbers in the last quarter of FY13.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Looking at bulletin archives, (Aug and Sep 2008 and 2010 bulletins) looks like this info will be available only by Sep bulletin as Spec pointed above. It's kind of sad how USCIS/DOS works inefficiently though the information is even publicly available much earlier.Quote:
Originally Posted by pdmay2008
I'm sure Spec can do a much better job than CO in setting the cut off dates.
It is very surprising that no other forum, news place has discussed this SO VERY IMPORTANT NEWS of FB extra visas!!
I wonder, Spec maybe you should broadcast thsis news and make some real Green!
This is amazing!
The kind words are becoming almost embarrassing!Quote:
Originally Posted by harapatta2012
I hope I don't end up with egg on my face. Worse than bad news is raising hopes, only for them to be dashed. I've provided the evidence of both the law and what has happened historically, so I am reasonably confident that it will happen.
I am a little surprised that no-one else has made the connection yet or "leaked" it to another site. In fact no-one else seems to realise the FY2012 figures have been published.
Any thanks should go to Q, who had the foresight to set up and fund the only website dedicated to Calculations & Predictions. There is nothing else like it on the web.
In addition, it is one of very few sites where people can have differing views, yet still discuss them in an adult, yet respectful way.
Also, the moderators do a great job of keeping the forum free of distractions like spam and moving posts to the relevant forum sections. It's unseen work, but it makes a big difference.
I don't really post anywhere else, nor particularly wish to.
It's so good to see some optimism again. I know it has been a very tough year to date for those in EB2-I.
In amongst the euphoria, spare a thought for all those in EB3. Two Countries are only moving at a week / month and even the best case is 6 years retrogression. Unlike EB2, they have no prospect of extra visas from spillover and have been sold short on their allocation for the last two years.
One trackitt user posted link to Spec's post but people there could not appreciate the value. The subsequent replies to the post were very disappointing. But I am not surprised ...that's the case with many of the threads there.Quote:
Originally Posted by harapatta2012
LoL! Spec - don't deflect this on me. This credit is entirely yours! You found out the FB numbers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec and Q,
Since everyone is so excited about this latest news (moving 18K odd visas from FB to EB) based on Spec's calculation, Is there anyway we can somehow pass this news to CO and the Visa Office?
This way they can start proactively planning 2-3 months in advance and move dates gradually (i.e. giving GCs based on priority date) rather than opening the flood gates in September and only few lucky ones getting it, wasting the remaining visas.
I feel this is very important data that needs to reach the visa office ASAP. We are talking about 18,000 additional visas and bulk of them are going to help EB2 India folks.
If there is any reader in this forum who have reputable attorneys (Murthy, Fragomen, Gotcher, Oh Law Firm etc) then we can start by sharing this news with them and ask them to pass it on to CO.
Thanks once again Spec and Q for this wonderful data and he great forum
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Spec, I looked up the Sept 2008 bulletin and that was the year with 20K visas coming from FB to EB. Because of the FBI name check issues, EB2IC dates were at Aug 2006 and EB3 was U. But that year USCIS reported the extra numbers on July 22nd. I quote the Sept 2008 bulletin below:Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
How do you think this will play out this year? First, will DoS move dates to reflect the 18K bonus across all EB categories? Second, will USCIS be able to process 18K extra approvals across all categories in the month of Sept? I do not know how they managed in 2008. The spill over beyond these numbers may be allocated earlier and hence we may see some movement in July and August for EB2I. At least I hope so.Quote:
E. DETERMINATION OF THE NUMERICAL LIMITS ON IMMIGRANTS REQUIRED UNDER THE TERMS OF THE IMMIGRATION AND NATIONALITY ACT (INA)
The State Department is required to make a determination of the worldwide numerical limitations, as outlined in Sections 201(c) and (d) of the INA, on an annual basis. These calculations are based in part on data provided by the Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) regarding number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to officially determine of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while awaiting the CIS data, the Visa Office bases allocations on the minimum annual limits as outlined in Section 201 of the INA, along with estimates. On July 22nd, CIS provided the required data to the Visa Office.
The Department of State has determined the family and employment preference limits for FY-2008 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. The numerical limits for FY-2008 are as follows:
Worldwide Family-sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-based preference limit: 162,704
Under the INA Section 202(A), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2008 the per-country limit is 27,209. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,774.
PS: This is my 500th post on the forum. Yay!
I've been doing my math based on your numbers and I tend to agree with Q's predictions, if FB visas are not wasted after they spill-over to EB, we will likely clear out 2008. Thank you so much for your "discovery". It's been a frustrating wait but I hope to get it this year, God willing..Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thank you so much for your patient work. I know that you already have your GC and don't have to come over here...
That may be the reason why PD predictions were given only until June in March VB.Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Hello people,
I stumbled upon this forum quite recently. I should say people here are doing a remarkable job. Salute your efforts.
I visit Ron Gotcher's forum regularly and thats about it. I posted the detailed analysis from S on ron's forum to spread the word. I hope thats ok.
Thanks!
Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
The demand data shows there 30k+ waiting. I don't think they'll have a problem using the additional 18k.
Thankfully and mercifully so. But the logistically question still remains. From recent history, the most that USCIS has processed in a month is around 8K and this with the preadjudicated cases. So processing 18K will remain a challenge. Moreover, not all preadjudicated cases are approvable so the dates need to be moved a little more so as to not waste any numbers. These and there may be other challenges to cram it all in one month of September. If CIR passes, we may be in for a bonanza but it may also bring out the worst in USCIS as they may practically ignore everything else in order to tend to the deluge of 11 million cases.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
I see from the past VBs, this info was send to DOS by USCIS between Jun 1st week to Aug 1st week and DOS published the recalculated visa numbers in subsequent VBs : Aug or Sep VB of that year. So if they publish in Aug VB then it will be out in July 1st week and hence they will have entire quarter to plan for it. I don't think they will sought for fresh application for this allocation instead they will rely on clearing the backlogs i.e. pre-adjudicated cases.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
People have become so pessimistic after seeing last 5 VBs and it will take some time for them to come out of that inertia. Initially they disagree this, later realise it & then comes the acceptance. It might take atleast 1 to 2 months that the other sites realize and accept your predictions.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
A different viewpoint is that the EB visas lost in earlier years which we are trying to recapture with various bills are coming back to the EB category through this method.I am not sure how many EB visas were lost through all those years but > 50000 have come back into this category according to Spec's calculations
gs1968,Quote:
Originally Posted by gs1968
In fact 180k visas have already been recaptured due to AC21 (130k) and for Schedule A (50k).
After those are taken into account, up until this year, EB has received slightly more visas back from FB than they have been wasted in the period since 1992.
Just saw someone posted this on trackitt, funny the way it was mentioned.
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...to-eb-in-fy201