EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

FY2012 DOS Statistics with Analysis

FY2012 Visa Approvals

144,951 visas were available to EB in FY2012
That represents 41,456 for each of EB1-EB3
7% in each of EB1-EB3 was 2,902

226,000 visas were available to FB in FY2012

FY2012-EB Visa Approvals

Total EB Approvals

- Country --- EB1 ----- EB2 ----- EB3 ----- EB4 ---- EB5 ---- Total
CHINA ----- 6,183 --- 5,858 --- 2,827 ----- 117 -- 6,124 --- 21,109
INDIA ----- 9,506 -- 19,726 --- 2,804 ----- 600 ----- 77 --- 32,713
MEXICO ---- 2,054 ----- 823 --- 3,748 ----- 881 ----- 81 ---- 7,587
PHIL. ------- 266 --- 2,408 --- 6,479 ----- 350 ------ 1 ---- 9,504
ROW ------ 21,378 -- 21,778 -- 23,691 --- 5,530 -- 1,358 --- 73,735

TOTAL ---- 39,387 -- 50,593 -- 39,549 --- 7,478 -- 7,641 -- 144,648

303 visas were wasted in EB (0.2%)

EB2 Approvals

THEORETICAL SPILLOVER

EB1 --------- 2,069
EB2-M ------- 2,079
EB2-P --------- 494
EB2-ROW ----- 8,070
EB4 --------- 2,813
EB5 --------- 2,651

TOTAL ------ 18,176

SPILLOVER USED

Spillover -- 19,780
EB2-IC ------ 5,804

SOFAD ------ 25,584

SPILLOVER
WASTAGE ---- (1,604) A negative number indicates that more spillover was used than was available from EB1, EB2, EB4 & EB5

SPILLOVER ALLOCATION

--------------- No. ---- % --
CHINA ------- 2,956 -- 14.94%
INDIA ------ 16,824 -- 85.06%

TOTAL ------ 19,780 - 100.00%

EB3 Approvals

EB3-China received 225 more visas than their allocation of 2,602 visas (8.65%).
EB3-India received 98 less visas than their allocation of 2,902 visas (3.38%).
EB3-Mexico received 846 more visas than their allocation of 2,902 visas (29.15%).
EB3-Philippines received 3,577 more visas than their allocation of 2,902 visas (123.26%).
EB3-ROW received 7,538 less visas than their allocation of 30,956 visas (24.14%).
Adjusted for M&P usage, EB3-ROW received 3,115 less visas that expected (12.61%).

EB3 received 1,907 less visas than the allocation of 41,456 (4.60%).

EB1
--------------- Total ---- % ------ CP ---- % CP -- CP FY2011
China --------- 6,183 -- 15.70% ---- 273 -- 4.42% ----- 6.83%
India --------- 9,506 -- 24.13% ----- 79 -- 0.83% ----- 1.51%
Mexico -------- 2,054 --- 5.21% ----- 19 -- 0.93% ----- 3.81%
Philippines ----- 266 --- 0.68% ----- 22 -- 8.27% ----- 8.77%
ROW ---------- 21,378 -- 54.28% -- 1,141 -- 5.34% ----- 7.90%

Total -------- 39,387 - 100.00% -- 1,534 -- 3.89% ----- 6.39%

EB2
--------------- Total ---- % ------ CP ---- % CP -- CP FY2011
China --------- 5,858 -- 11.58% ----- 78 -- 1.33% ----- 0.80%
India -------- 19,726 -- 38.99% ---- 140 -- 0.71% ----- 0.55%
Mexico ---------- 823 --- 1.63% ----- 21 -- 2.55% ----- 1.57%
Philippines --- 2,408 --- 4.76% ---- 254 - 10.55% ----- 7.90%
ROW ---------- 21,778 -- 43.05% ---- 905 -- 4.16% ----- 4.02%

Total -------- 50,593 - 100.00% -- 1,398 -- 2.76% ----- 2.52%

EB3
--------------- Total ---- % ------ CP ---- % CP -- CP FY2011
China --------- 2,827 --- 7.15% -- 1,423 - 50.34% ---- 58.69%
India --------- 2,804 --- 7.09% ---- 231 -- 8.24% ----- 6.57%
Mexico -------- 3,748 --- 9.48% ---- 248 -- 6.62% ----- 5.20%
Philippines --- 6,479 -- 16.38% -- 3,027 - 46.72% ---- 38.32%
ROW ---------- 23,691 -- 59.90% -- 3,381 - 14.27% ---- 19.21%

Total -------- 39,549 - 100.00% -- 8,310 - 21.01% ---- 20.21%

EB4
--------------- Total ---- % ------ CP ---- % CP -- CP FY2011
China ----------- 117 --- 1.56% ------ 3 -- 2.56% ---- 20.51%
India ----------- 600 --- 8.02% ---- 138 - 23.00% ---- 38.96%
Mexico ---------- 881 -- 11.78% ------ 5 -- 0.57% ----- 3.09%
Philippines ----- 350 --- 4.68% ----- 89 - 25.43% ---- 28.62%
ROW ----------- 5,530 -- 73.95% ---- 982 - 17.76% ---- 21.93%

Total --------- 7,478 - 100.00% -- 1,217 - 16.27% ---- 21.31%

EB5
--------------- Total ---- % ------ CP ---- % CP -- CP FY2011
China --------- 6,124 -- 80.15% -- 5,683 - 92.80% ---- 92.73%
India ------------ 77 --- 1.01% ----- 28 - 36.36% ---- 32.43%
Mexico ----------- 81 --- 1.06% ----- 14 - 17.28% ----- 7.55%
Philippines ------- 1 --- 0.01% ------ 1 100.00% ----- 0.00%
ROW ----------- 1,358 -- 17.77% ---- 952 - 70.10% ---- 65.42%

Total --------- 7,641 - 100.00% -- 6,678 - 87.40% ---- 83.14%

EB1 - EB5
--------------- Total ---- % ------ CP ---- % CP -- CP FY2011
China -------- 21,109 -- 14.59% -- 7,460 - 35.34% ---- 23.66%
India -------- 32,713 -- 22.62% ---- 616 -- 1.88% ----- 1.97%
Mexico -------- 7,587 --- 5.25% ---- 307 -- 4.05% ----- 4.43%
Philippines --- 9,504 --- 6.57% -- 3,393 - 35.70% ---- 24.33%
ROW ---------- 73,735 -- 50.98% -- 7,361 -- 9.98% ---- 11.24%

Total ------- 144,648 - 100.00% - 19,137 - 13.23% ---- 10.84%

EB1 - EB3
--------------- Total ---- % ------ CP ---- % CP -- CP FY2011
China -------- 14,868 -- 11.48% -- 1,774 - 11.93% ---- 12.40%
India -------- 32,036 -- 24.73% ---- 450 -- 1.40% ----- 1.43%
Mexico -------- 6,625 --- 5.11% ---- 288 -- 4.35% ----- 4.52%
Philippines --- 9,153 --- 7.07% -- 3,303 - 36.09% ---- 24.16%
ROW ---------- 66,847 -- 51.61% -- 5,427 -- 8.12% ----- 9.68%

Total ------- 129,529 - 100.00% - 11,242 -- 8.68% ----- 8.39%

FAMILY BASED
--------------- Total ---- % --
China -------- 17,839 --- 8.60%
India -------- 12,149 --- 5.85%
Mexico ------- 41,975 -- 20.23%
Philippines -- 16,727 --- 8.06%
ROW --------- 118,845 -- 57.27%

Total ------- 207,535 - 100.00%

18,465 visas could be available to EB in FY2013.

EB & FB
--------------- Total ---- % --
China -------- 38,948 -- 11.06%
India -------- 44,862 -- 12.74%
Mexico ------- 49,562 -- 14.07%
Philippines -- 26,231 --- 7.45%
ROW --------- 192,580 -- 54.68%

Total ------- 352,183 - 100.00%

Note:- I do not have a problem if portions of this data are reproduced on other websites. It is not fair to simply copy/paste everything.

However, it is a condition that, if the data is reproduced, a web link back to this page is included in any such post.

If a site forbids linking to this forum, then no content may be reproduced.

Spec,
Your comment, "18,465 visas could be available to EB in FY2013." - does it mean this could be available as spill over to EB in 2013 FY? If so, how does it get distributed across categories/countries?
Based on the data above and new bulletin, is there any change to your predictions?

Thanks Spec - finally.

First this completely debunks CO 's claim that ROW would have to be retrogressed. The fact is EB2ROW didn't even use their own quota as we always believed. I am glad our call on that one was right.

On the other hand, what also should be comforting to EB2I community is that, the overall visa consumption is not at all abnormal compared to other years. That includes EB5 which indeed consumed more but not all of their own quota. EB1 was also as expected because in 2011 kazarian memo helped EB2 but it had only delayed as opposed to removed the demand.

So overall going forward - I think people should expect exactly the same performance in 2013 - perhaps 4K less. But even with that the dates will fly into Q2 2008 at least.

Header of the thread updated.

Quote:

Originally Posted by gc_soon

Spec,
Your comment, "18,465 visas could be available to EB in FY2013." - does it mean this could be available as spill over to EB in 2013 FY?
Based on the data above and new bulletin, is there any change to your predictions?

The number of visas available to FB in FY2012 was 226,000.

They only used 207,535 visas.

Unused visas in FB are added to the number of EB visas available in the following FY.

In theory, EB could have 140,000 + 18,465 = 158,465 visas available for FY2013. There will be some small adjustments to that figure.

That would make the numbers available to each Category as Follows:

EB1 - 45,321
EB2 - 45,321
EB3 - 45,321
EB4 - 11,251
EB5 - 11,251

This would certainly increase the potential spillover enormously and make a huge difference to any calculations I have made to date.

It would also increase the 7% figure to 3,172 in each of EB1-EB3.

I'll work through the figures when time permits.

Now that would be unbelievable spec!! That would potentially move dates into 2009 for EB2I.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

The number of visas available to FB in FY2012 was 226,000.

They only used 207,535 visas.

Unused visas in FB are added to the number of EB visas available in the following FY.

In theory, EB could have 140,000 + 18,465 = 158,465 visas available for FY2013.

Thanks Spec, that's positive to hear. Looking forward to the revised calculations.

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Thanks Spec - finally.

First this completely debunks CO 's claim that ROW would have to be retrogressed. The fact is EB2ROW didn't even use their own quota as we always believed. I am glad our call on that one was right.

Q,

EB2-ROW would probably have used their entire allocation (or very close to it) in FY2012 had the dates not been retrogressed.

EB2-Philippines would certainly have exceeded theirs.

Only EB2-Mexico (as expected) would not have used their full allocation.

Taken as a whole, without retrogression, EB2-WW might have contributed 3k spillover at most in FY2012 and EB2-IC would have received about 7-8k less (which now falls through to FY2013).

Had there not been the prospect of extra visas from FB, EB2-WW retrogression at the end of FY2013, while certainly unlikely, was not impossible, given they have a full year's demand plus the 7-8k.

I think that more disturbing is the fact that for the second year running, EB3 (and really it's EB3ROW) have effectively subsidized EB2-IC and EB3 did not receive the full numbers due to them by a wide margin.

Spec - I think that if at all EB2ROW ran out of visas it was certainly because they were already allocated to EB2IC between Oct-Feb of FY 2012. Yet I think CO used that as a scare tactic for EB2I in particular. If you look at full year consumption - EB2ROW is not abnormal compared to other years. Perhaps it wouldve required 3K more but certainly not more. So coming back to this year - yes indeed that 3K will be carried over and perhaps EB2ROW may not yield any SOFAD. Will have to look into labor/140 data to figure that out. But the FB visas is a welcome news. I was afraid that 207K is the CP only number. But not so - that's total and so yes indeed 19K potential visas are awaiting for EB category. Whether CO will release them - is a different story ;)

p.s. - EB3ROW subsidy is minor spec. I wouldn't read too much into it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,

EB2-ROW would probably have used their entire allocation (or very close to it) in FY2012 had the dates not been retrogressed.

EB2-Philippines would certainly have exceeded theirs.

Only EB2-Mexico (as expected) would not have used their full allocation.

Taken as a whole, without retrogression, EB2-WW might have contributed 3k spillover at most in FY2012 and EB2-IC would have received about 7-8k less (which now falls through to FY2013).

Had there not been the prospect of extra visas from FB, EB2-WW retrogression at the end of FY2013, while certainly unlikely, was not impossible, given they have a full year's demand plus the 7-8k.

I think that more disturbing is the fact that for the second year running, EB3 (and really it's EB3ROW) have effectively subsidized EB2-IC and EB3 did not receive the full numbers due to them by a wide margin.

Spec,

Wow what a news!!!!!!!

This seems to be THE news in almost 11 months now,,atleast since March 27th, 2012.

So FB WOULD provide 18,465 or even less, say 15,000, to EB, that still huge!!!

Now only thing is how likely would that be..That is what is likelihood that FB extra visas would 100% come to EB?

The news is great...needs more ..wows and ahhaa's...!

Thanks for posting such great news.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

The number of visas available to FB in FY2012 was 226,000.

They only used 207,535 visas.

Unused visas in FB are added to the number of EB visas available in the following FY.

In theory, EB could have 140,000 + 18,465 = 158,465 visas available for FY2013. There will be some small adjustments to that figure.

That would make the numbers available to each Category as Follows:

EB1 - 45,321
EB2 - 45,321
EB3 - 45,321
EB4 - 11,251
EB5 - 11,251

This would certainly increase the potential spillover enormously and make a huge difference to any calculations I have made to date.

It would also increase the 7% figure to 3,172 in each of EB1-EB3.

I'll work through the figures when time permits.

Spec- many thanks for all detailed number calculations and bringing in some great news !

Quote:

Originally Posted by harapatta2012

Spec,

Wow what a news!!!!!!!

This seems to be THE news in almost 11 months now,,atleast since March 27th, 2012.

So FB WOULD provide 18,465 or even less, say 15,000, to EB, that still huge!!!

Now only thing is how likely would that be..That is what is likelihood that FB extra visas would 100% come to EB?

The news is great...needs more ..wows and ahhaa's...!

Thanks for posting such great news.

harapatta,

I agree it is great news. I was surprised that not all the FB visas were used in FY2012.

It won't be announced officially until about the August VB, since DOS have to wait for the adjustment figures from USCIS and they always take a very long time to provide them. Nonetheless, CO must be aware of this.

The extra visas coming to EB in the next FY is the CURRENT LAW, so there should be no doubt that it should happen.

Quote:

INA 203(d)

d) Worldwide level of employment-based immigrants

(1) The worldwide level of employment-based immigrants under this subsection for a fiscal year is equal to-

(A) 140,000 plus

(B) the number computed under paragraph (2).

(2) (A) The number computer under this paragraph for fiscal year 1992 is zero.

(B) The number computed under this paragraph for fiscal year 1993 is the difference (if any) between the worldwide level established under paragraph (1) for the previous fiscal year and the number of visas issued under section 203(b) during that fiscal year.

(C) The number computed under this paragraph for a subsequent fiscal year is the difference (if any) between the maximum number of visas which may be issued under section 203(a) (relating to family-sponsored immigrants) during the previous fiscal year and the number of visas issued under that section during that year.

where 203(a) is Preference Allocation for Family-Sponsored Immigrants.

In FY2012, EB received an extra 4,951 visas from FB. The difference in the FY2011 DOS Visa Statistics for FB was 4,958. There are some very minor adjustments to be made (to do with parolees).

Quote:

Originally Posted by suninphx

Spec- many thanks for all detailed number calculations and bringing in some great news !

suninphx,

I know some people think I am a doomsayer at times - it's very nice to actually bear good news once in a while.

Amazing News

Hey Spec - thats amazing news - finally after the State Of Union - it looks like Legal immigration is also being prioritized - hopefully some legalization changes should also make a lot of people happy in the next 6-7 months.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

suninphx,

I know some people think I am a doomsayer at times - it's very nice to actually bear good news once in a while.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

suninphx,

I know some people think I am a doomsayer at times - it's very nice to actually bear good news once in a while.

Spec, I appreciate all the work you and Q put into analysis. With no transparency from the CO, your analysis shows how the near future may look like. Thanks once again for your work.

If CO knows that these additional visas will be available for allocation ...then I am wondering what made him to put those comments in visa bulletin about EB2I?

Quote:

Originally Posted by suninphx

If CO knows that these additional visas will be available for allocation ...then I am wondering what made him to put those comments in visa bulletin about EB2I?

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think CO does much analysis. For example, even though the I485 inventory released some time in FY2012 (when the PDs were moving forward rapidly) showed huge demand for EB2-I, CO made the comment that every effort will be made to bring back the dates to May 2010 in FY2013. I guess he looked only at Demand Data.
I'm just afraid that he might open the gate too close to end of FY, and visas get approved randomly instead of FIFO, and then dates retrogress back in FY 2014.

Quote:

Originally Posted by suninphx

If CO knows that these additional visas will be available for allocation ...then I am wondering what made him to put those comments in visa bulletin about EB2I?

I think the comments are put without regards to SO.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

suninphx,

I know some people think I am a doomsayer at times - it's very nice to actually bear good news once in a while.

Spec, could you please help answer this question for me?

In the past, when there was a preadjudicated pipeline available for EB2IC, CO has at most moved dates that might approve 8K/month I think. Given the possibility of FB spillover to EB, shouldn't CO then start moving dates before July visa bulletin? If so, then does it contradict his prediction for movement in Apr-June?

I agree with Q's logic. Here is some info to support that:
As I said earlier from the DD analysis, there is 250 visas allocation during Oct'12 for EB2-I and from Nov'12 to till now all the EB2-I visas are issued to the EB3-I to EB2-I porters and the rate is approxmately equal to the monthly quota of EB2-I and hence we are not seeing any movement in EB2-I. This will continue till the spillover comes into the picture in coming months.
Here is the past history of the EB2-I visa allocations:
----------------------------------------------------
2007---2008---2009---2010---2011---2012---2013
-----------------------------------------------------
6k -----15k ----10k----20k ----24k ----20k-----???
----------------------------------------------------
from the above data any statistical analyst can guess the 2013 figures as 20k without having any knowledge of EB comminity.
I would guess it could be more than that and the reason is the PERM approvals trend for INDIA:
----------------------------------------
2009----2010----2011-----2012----2013
----------------------------------------
39% ----41%-----52% -----56% ----57%
----------------------------------------
Imagine that if this trend goes to 80% in future, what happens? There will not be any country which will use its full annual reserved quota of 7% and all those visas spill over to EB2-I untill it becomes current.
This is the most important trend that made possible to move the EB2-I backlogs in the last 2 years and this will continue further untill EB2-I becomes current.
We no need to worry about the EB3-I porting even they steal some EB2-I visas by way of porting still we will reach to 2009 levels by the end of the 2013. All we need to do is sit tightly and experience the rollar coaster ride in coming months.

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

SeeingGC - What you have today is DoS is holding back EB2I dates on a technicality. The technicality being the definition of oversubscription in a category for a country. So EB2I has probably more than 3K (ie. its annual quota) demand prior to where the visa dates are today. That gives VO enough ammo to hold the entire country dates prior to whatever 2004/2005 dates they are today. The reality is all of that come Jun - EB2I will receive SOFAD (based on historical precedence) more than 13-15K which is enough to move EB2I dates into 2008. That's the logic / rationale.

Quote:

Originally Posted by YTeleven

This is the most important trend that made possible to move the EB2-I backlogs in the last 2 years and this will continue further untill EB2-I becomes current.
We no need to worry about the EB3-I porting even they steal some EB2-I visas by way of porting still we will reach to 2009 levels by the end of the 2013. All we need to do is sit tightly and experience the rollar coaster ride in coming months.

It is not that simple. There are sudden unexplained spikes in all kinds of demands from EB1, EB4 and EB5. PERM and I-140 processing times do get erratic and affect spillovers.

Since India's share of PERM applications is increasing, it is straightforward to expect India's spillover share to increase as other countries consume less. But that has not happened to the extent it was expected.

Thats actually true. His comments are very reactive to the small aperture of window of last few months and next few months. He doesn't take into consideration any spillover at all.

Quote:

Originally Posted by gc_soon

.. I don't think CO does much analysis.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kd2008

Spec, could you please help answer this question for me?

In the past, when there was a preadjudicated pipeline available for EB2IC, CO has at most moved dates that might approve 8K/month I think. Given the possibility of FB spillover to EB, shouldn't CO then start moving dates before July visa bulletin? If so, then does it contradict his prediction for movement in Apr-June?

kd,

I tend to agree that CO comments are very simplistic and based purely on monthly allocations without regard to other factors.

The same was also true of the EB3-ROW movements. Their current backlog will run out in 3 months, so the dates need to move beyond July 2007 early enough to ensure a continued supply of cases that are ready to adjudicate.

That's less of a factor for EB2-I, since most cases are already pre-adjudicated and it is a relatively speedy process to make the final approval, even if a new IBIS check needs to be performed prior to doing so.

kd,

I understand what you are saying. There might be other factors which we might not even imagine to decide what is the spillover this year like Spec found a windfall of FB visas(~18k) ready to be spilled in this year.
All I was trying to say is that no body can't suddenly change the below trend which took last few years to setup, it will take same years of time to break or change back.
----------------------------------------------------
-------------------2010----2011----2012----2013
----------------------------------------------------
EB2-I Visas---------20k ---~24k ---~20k-----???----
INDIA PERM Share--41%----52% ----56% ---57%----
----------------------------------------------------

Quote:

Originally Posted by kd2008

It is not that simple. There are sudden unexplained spikes in all kinds of demands from EB1, EB4 and EB5. PERM and I-140 processing times do get erratic and affect spillovers.

Since India's share of PERM applications is increasing, it is straightforward to expect India's spillover share to increase as other countries consume less. But that has not happened to the extent it was expected.

I tend to agree with YT. Spikes come and go. But the trend can not just reverse, unless there is a major law change(Even the change(CIR) will be in favor only).

We expect minimum of 20K as usual as always. I guess CO might be delaying just to streamline porter application which will be added in next years demand. My guess :- spill over will come into effct from June

Quote:

Originally Posted by YTeleven

kd,

I understand what you are saying. There might be other factors which we might not even imagine to decide what is the spillover this year like Spec found a windfall of FB visas(~18k) ready to be spilled in this year.
All I was trying to say is that no body can't suddenly change the below trend which took last few years to setup, it will take same years of time to break or change back.
----------------------------------------------------
-------------------2010----2011----2012----2013
----------------------------------------------------
EB2-I Visas---------20k ---~20k ---~20k-----???----
INDIA PERM Share--41%----52% ----56% ---57%----
----------------------------------------------------

Spec, Thank you . Great news.

good to hear some positive news its been a while.

From murthy in Nov2012:

Quote:

http://www.murthy.com/2012/11/02/pri...ions-for-fy13/
Excess Visa Numbers Estimated for EB2 India and China
Overall, the expectations are that EB2 India and China will benefit from some excess visa numbers shifting from EB1 and EB2 ROW. However, the volume of such excess is expected to be even less in FY13 than it was in FY12. In FY12, EB2 India and China each received approximately 19,000 visa numbers. The vast majority of these were due to shifting excess numbers into EB2 India and China. At this time, the DOS estimates that a total of 13,000 visa numbers will be available to EB2 India and China in FY13. This is subject to change - either up or down - depending upon the usage in the other categories, as explained here.

I wonder if CO had this in mind when he mentioned there might be 13k SO back in October, it does match exactly with FB extra numbers--18k if you remove 5k--which would go to EB3 that would leave 13k to EB2IC. Also he must have looked at Fy2012 EB1/EB2ROWMP/EB5/EB4 consumption and estimated similar usage in FY2013 for those categories which will give nearly 0 spill over from regular EB1/EB2ROWMP/EB5/EB4 numbers--100k, but i think this is not true there might be around 4-7k SO from regular numbers had there been no FB extra numbers.

Spec, has anything changed with respect to EB1/EB2ROWMP consumption so far can we still assume that they are going to give around 2-3k SO--technically from EB1 excluding FB extra numbers.

Excellent news Spec. This was welcome news especially after the pessimistic prediction made by CO for future date movement in the latest visa bulletin.

I really don't know why he is giving out negative news (i.e. dates may have to be retrogressed etc) when there is definitely going to be SPILL OVER from other EB categories (like EB1, EB5 and EB2 ROW etc) and the visa numbers recovery from FB category not utilized in 2012.

Does anyone know what advantage he gets by scaring the EB2I guys?
:mad:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

suninphx,

I know some people think I am a doomsayer at times - it's very nice to actually bear good news once in a while.

Quote:

Originally Posted by openaccount

good to hear some positive news its been a while.

Spec, has anything changed with respect to EB1/EB2ROWMP consumption so far can we still assume that they are going to give around 2-3k SO--technically from EB1 excluding FB extra numbers.

openaccount,

I'm in the middle of a crisis at the moment, so I don't have the time presently to look at the numbers fully.

That said, the FY2012 figures appear to have improved most things IMO.

The figures below relate to a normal 140k allocation. 18.5k extra from FB would add another potential 13.2k spillover (EB3 get an extra 5.3k).

In my usual conservative style ( it could well be better):

EB1

Difficult to call, since FY2013 is the first "proper" year since Kazarian. FY2011 was low (25k) due to that and FY2012 (40k) was probably high due to the after effects. Hopefully EB1 could provide at least 5k.

EB4

Again, EB4 didn't use their full allocation (which was slightly surprising), so they may give some spillover in FY2013. Let's say 2k.

EB5

EB5 is likely to use close to their full allocation.

That means at least 20k spillover available to EB2, including extra FB numbers.

EB2-WW

They might potentially use a small amount of spillover due to the extra numbers flowing into FY2013 because of retrogression.

It's looking quite promising from an initial look.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

I'm in the middle of a crisis at the moment, so I don't have the time presently to look at the numbers fully.

Hope it gets resolved soon. Thank you for the detailed analysis.

Spec,

Hope your crisis would be resolved soon, not just saying to be mean, but sincerely hope that because you have helped everyone always.

Your recent post on FB spillover has changed everyone's EMOTIONAL status, in positive way.Its big...giant news..next atleast 200 posts are going to be just about this...my prediction here.

Thanks for your analysis and efforts, you have been a BIG help.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

openaccount,

I'm in the middle of a crisis at the moment, so I don't have the time presently to look at the numbers fully.

That said, the FY2012 figures appear to have improved most things IMO.

The figures below relate to a normal 140k allocation. 18.5k extra from FB would add another potential 13.2k spillover (EB3 get an extra 5.3k).

In my usual conservative style ( it could well be better):

EB1

Difficult to call, since FY2013 is the first "proper" year since Kazarian. FY2011 was low (25k) due to that and FY2012 (40k) was probably high due to the after effects. Hopefully EB1 could provide at least 5k.

EB4

Again, EB4 didn't use their full allocation (which was slightly surprising), so they may give some spillover in FY2013. Let's say 2k.

EB5

EB5 is likely to use close to their full allocation.

That means at least 20k spillover available to EB2, including extra FB numbers.

EB2-WW

They might potentially use a small amount of spillover due to the extra numbers flowing into FY2013 because of retrogression.

It's looking quite promising from an initial look.

Spec great Job as usual
its the best news since the last surge in EB2 - I last year.Lets hope we get out of this mess soon.

Thanks Q and Spec

Based on Q's update - Spill Over expected: 15K (excluding annual quota to EB2I/C which we assume that is give to porters from now on till September 2013)

Based on Spec's data:

Spill over from FB to EB2I/C: 13K

Total available from spill over 28K(excluding normal allocation which is given to porters as we know from last 3 months same date hence monthly quota = porters demand)

Demand from March 2013 DOS data up to 1st January 2009 is : 23,975

Assume 4 months demand is 4,000(conservative figure),

Most likey September bulletin will have EB2 cut off date would be May 1st 2009.

By this time: Pray that CIR would be in place- mainly to remove country cap

Or else, porters might increase exponentially and make PD dates go back again to 2005 making this a yo yo game.

Quote:

Originally Posted by harapatta2012

Spec,

Hope your crisis would be resolved soon, not just saying to be mean, but sincerely hope that because you have helped everyone always.

Your recent post on FB spillover has changed everyone's EMOTIONAL status, in positive way.Its big...giant news..next atleast 200 posts are going to be just about this...my prediction here.

Thanks for your analysis and efforts, you have been a BIG help.

Just to show why I am so excited about the FB figures (save any changes that CIR could make to the law), here is an analysis of expected extra visas from FB (calculated from the DOS Visa Statistics) versus Actual extra visa received.

------------ Stats --- Actual
FY2008 -- 22,707 --- 22,704
FY2009 ------- 0 -------- 0
FY2010 -- 10,667 --- 10,657
FY2011 ------- 0 -------- 0
FY2012 --- 4,958 ---- 4,951
FY2013 -- 18,465 ---- ?????

Thanks Spec for finding this hidden treasure. It seems we have to wait till Aug'13 VB or may be Sep'13 VB to see these numbers become official.

For IC, the demand is 27,475 til Jan 1, 2009.

Quote:

Originally Posted by bvsamrat

Thanks Q and Spec

Based on Q's update - Spill Over expected: 15K (excluding annual quota to EB2I/C which we assume that is give to porters from now on till September 2013)

Based on Spec's data:

Spill over from FB to EB2I/C: 13K

Total available from spill over 28K(excluding normal allocation which is given to porters as we know from last 3 months same date hence monthly quota = porters demand)

Demand from March 2013 DOS data up to 1st January 2009 is : 23,975

Assume 4 months demand is 4,000(conservative figure),

Most likey September bulletin will have EB2 cut off date would be May 1st 2009.

By this time: Pray that CIR would be in place- mainly to remove country cap

Or else, porters might increase exponentially and make PD dates go back again to 2005 making this a yo yo game.

I hope CO looks into this hidden treasure and starts moving dates in steps earlier, rather than one large push with random approvals and retrogress again. But based on message from latest bulletin, looks like CO is not keen into looking into spillover in Q3.

Quote:

Originally Posted by gc_soon

I hope CO looks into this hidden treasure and starts moving dates in steps earlier, rather than one large push with random approvals and retrogress again. But based on message from latest bulletin, looks like CO is not keen into looking into spillover in Q3.

Smaller moves theoretically means more porters get in to the demand pipeline. I see major movements in the Aug and Sept VBs.

Quote:

Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Awesome! So it looks like some date in 2009 is a reality then for FY 2013!

I am stoked about this as well! If we really get to 2009 by the end of FY13, then I am hopeful that July 2009 PD can be had some time in 2014, irrespective of CIR!

Quote:

Originally Posted by sportsfan33

The IC combined demand until Jan 1 is 27K. I will add 1-2K more for porting cases, although I feel once the dates start moving, all porting case processing will stop. There are probably 3k+ visas left for IC combined from the country quota itself. So about 25-26K cases will need to be processed. If the whole 18.4K spillover from FB is available to EB, then the total anticipated spillover is easily more than that (it could be as much as 35K) and the dates can make a march into 2009.

This might help people understand how the extra visas would be distributed:

--------- 158.5k ---- 140k ----- Diff
EB1 ----- 45,321 --- 40,040 ---- 5,281
EB2-C ---- 3,172 ---- 2,803 ------ 369
EB2-I ---- 3,172 ---- 2,803 ------ 369
EB2-M ---- 3,172 ---- 2,803 ------ 369
EB2-P ---- 3,172 ---- 2,803 ------ 369
EB2-ROW - 32,633 --- 28,828 ---- 3,805

EB4 ----- 11,251 ---- 9,940 ---- 1,311
EB5 ----- 11,251 ---- 9,940 ---- 1,311

Extra -- 113,144 --- 99,960 --- 13,184

EB3 ----- 45,321 --- 40,040 ---- 5,281

Totals - 158,465 -- 140,000 --- 18,465

EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013