Yeah I am bit confused too. Where is he getting the numbers up-front from, what's going on. Defies explanation.
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Originally Posted by qblogfan
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Yeah I am bit confused too. Where is he getting the numbers up-front from, what's going on. Defies explanation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
Yes. My current take is at two months for next VB, unless we see some new data point coming up or some logic by someone which can convince for something else.
and btw, really feel your situation. I am on 11/8/2007 and cursing my luck, you are on 11/1/2007 itself!
I realized for first time meaning of: So Near Yet so Far.
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Originally Posted by romanitaly
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Originally Posted by nishant2200
Since November VB did not indicated any chance for immediate retro, at least next VB should see some +ve movement for EB2IC.Quote:
Originally Posted by romanitaly
PS: 1,8,15 and 22 are not good numbers for immigration! :)
All GURUS one silly question
For people who are current in November, once they file 485's when would the numbers start showing in Inventory/Demand Data. Some time next year after February after they are processed. Does USCIS maintain any records on number of applications recevied for AOS as they receive tham, or they would start counting only once they are processed.
Atleast 3 months. AOS applications will be included in the USCIS I485 inventory. They release this every quarter (usually). Last one that was released was as of 26 May 2011. That is of no use to us at this point. A new Inventory report is due any time.
Below is the link to the USCIS inventory:
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD
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Originally Posted by tnayar78
there are two different things:
1. Demand Data : here the numbers can only show up once the 485 is pre-adjudicated and documentarily qualified. DOS is owner of this report. This includes CP cases also.
2. I-485 Pending Inventory Report : here the numbers can show up just because an 485 application came in and is awaiting approval, denial or user action based on RFE. This report is updated intermittently but not on a monthly basis, at least for the public consumption. USCIS is owner of this report. This does not have CP as it can't. CP is not AOS with USCIS. It's with NVC.
1 is more accurate for DOS to move dates, 2 is I believe an approximation they may use.
I am not sure what mechanism DOS has put in place to know what is "enough demand", how much to move dates to get that, and how long to continue. For eg, the demand which will be obtained due to Nov VB, will not be known by the time Dec VB is to be released, so how do they go about it.
edit: once they get to know Nov VB demand completely, by the time they go for January VB in December, they can possibly do a simple math that 3.5 months lead to n number of receipts, so how much one week would yield. Also the Oct VB movement has July 15 to August 15 2k7 also in it, which has been out there earlier, but seems to me that DOS is considering that also new demand and thinks most people in that timeline could not apply. just a theory. also 3.5 months, not 3 or 4, means they do have some sort of idea in mind.
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Originally Posted by tnayar78
Nishant, appreaciate your replyQuote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
So as DOS is not sure of the demand that is going to come in for November they have to still look at demand which thay have currently i.e., October and if that is taken as baseline dates should move by 3-3.5 months or could it be other way as dates are moved by 3.5 months already they would wait for couple of months and start moving for 6-7 months in consecutinve bulletins as it was done now.
I edited earlier post to put forth a theory on this.
Honestly, this is a conundrum. Others chime in if you have some theories or some feelings or logic on this.
I do feel that the earlier they move, there's much better of chances of large date movement, the more they delay and wait, it will be smaller movement.
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Originally Posted by tnayar78
How much they will move in future is anybody's guess.
practically speaking they should move in next few months rather than wait for 2 months and then move. If they wait for 2 months and then move there are 2 problems,
a. All people who are current will start calling USCIS and their senators about their green cards (even though they know that USCIS is just building pipeline).
b. USCIS will not be able to approve PD wise and will be approving applications randomly.
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Originally Posted by tnayar78
Excellent points Sir! Can't disagree with it. Had not thought of b. myself. b. is a very strong point. This is advantage of collective brainstorming.
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Originally Posted by skpanda
Just to add a little information, which might be useful.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
For the USCIS Inventory, USCIS have previously stated in a reply to the Ombudsman that an I-485 is only shown in the Inventory IF the underlying I-140 supporting it is APPROVED.
Given that most new filings of I-485 by EB2-IC will already have an approved I-140, they should appear in the numbers very quickly, although the Report isn't published very often, I would hope that these numbers are shared with DOS on a regular basis.
Of course, the Demand Data is a totally different situation; that needs the I-485 to be adjudicated and a lot of new approvals will never appear on any Demand Data Report. I don't think that is going to be very useful at all.
Thanks Q, When you say 2012 is that FY 2012 or merely calendar year 2012? What I'm asking is will I have to wait for 2013 quota before the dates progress into Apr 2008? Or will it happen in the forthcoming 3-4 months?Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
On a general note, it would be very helpful to capture in the beginning of the thread what the Guru's expect the movement to be each month going forward for the next 10-12 months with some explanation of the rationale behind the thinking.
For example:
Nov 2011 to March 2012 - Dates will reach March 2008 to build demand pipeline
Apr 2012 to June 2012 Dates will retrogress to somewhere between Nov 2007 to Feb 2008
July 2012 to Sep 2012 - Dates will start to move again?
Obviously the dates and predictions in my example may be completely bogus but that's where your extensive experience in analyzing the models would help and make the predictions closer to reality. Thanks!
Thanks Nishant! Can you or someone throw some light on when I'd get to file 485 if I miss it before Mar 2012 when the pipeline is being built up. Will I have to wait till after August 2012? Any predictions for what will be the progression of events for people whose dates don't become current in the next few months before the dates retrogress again would be helpful. Thanks again!Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
April 2008 is the last month that falls into the 25k SOFAD + 5k buffer sceanario. I am not taking into account Porting. I don't think DOS should take porting into account when making pipeline, as porting is just unpredictable and random. Unfortunately April 2008 also falls into the buffer range.Quote:
Originally Posted by yesman
For April 2008 AOS people to have a real chance of getting a GC in FY 2012, they have to get (scramble in) their applications in at least by Q3 mid or ending. Now how will they achieve that.
Considering that for just example sake: they have indeed somehow reserved 5400 visa numbers for the Oct VB move to July 15th 2007, and they don't consider people in July 15th 2007 to August 17th 2007 to be existing demand i.e. most of them could not apply last time around and missed the bus.
Then as skpanda pointed out earlier above, due to the reason a. and more due to b., they really have only 3-4 months max to have new intake taken in, before these cases also become ripe. Technically, once your 485 falls outside of the processing times advertised by the service center, you can call and ask about status and what's going on.
Now to counter that, I think they really might release visa numbers out of those 5400 plus any quarterly spillover or any hidden FB spillover which we don't know yet (I really dont know where they are going to get these numbers from, but seems they do have them or are pretty sure of a pathway to have them in Q1), to the easily approvable demand of April 15th 2007 to July 15th 2007, and by the time the newer 485s become ripe and even if USCIS offier sends file to ask for visa number, they just genuinely dont have any number allocated, instead they will put that file into their documentarily qualified queue and show up in demand data, and won't be able to approve 485 randomly without ordering of PD. Maybe that is why we are seeing a lot of approvals already for people who became current in Oct VB, i.e. they really want to use up that 5,400 visa numbers fast.
I personally have not completely understood the gameplan of DOS. I did point out that in FB based last FY, F2A category they played similar idea, they moved in Q1, grabbed inventory and then retrogressed back. Similar reasons were cited in few of those VB, that they are moving to generate demand and at some point it will retrogress. The puzzle is that in FB, they have a much better idea on docuentarily qualified demand because most of those cases are CP and is handled by NVC. For EB, most of the applications are AOS, and until a person applies for AOS, you never really know.
These are obviously some thoughts, you are all free to enhance to these thoughts, point out fallacies, or propose your theories.
Nishant,
True, even I was thinking the same, Why Nov1 and why 3.5 months ( and not 3 or 4 ), somehow I believe they have something cooking with the numbers.
But if we think on the positive note:
- they accepted that they would move the dates further
- They wouldn't get the count for Nov VB until end of November, hence they would move the dates further (atleast the next VB)
-Sandy
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Originally Posted by nishant2200
Hi Nishanth, Thanks for the rather detailed response. I've had to go over your response a couple of time to kinda understand since I'm very green when it comes to some of the abbreviations that are frequently used in this forum :)Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
But my understanding is that most of your email is talking about the possibility of getting a GC in FY 2012. My concern is more about being able to submit a 485 and how soon I would be able to do that. The motivation is to be able to submit the 485 and be in a position to switch employers 6 months from that day. I have a much higher tolerance towards actually waiting for the GC once the 485 is filed.
I realize that Apr 2008 is in the buffer zone and that DOS might move the cutoff dates just short of that by Mar 2012. And then the dates may even retrogress. But my question what happens after that? When do the dates start moving again?
Dates move again like this FY, in the beginning of FY 2013. They are going to set a precedent this FY 2012 for this situation.Quote:
Originally Posted by yesman
If you get lucky, and they find out in Q4 that there is lot of excess visas and not enough demand, they may move dates far into 2008 so that they can approve few hundred CP cases. In that case many people would be able to file 485.
Thank's for clarifying that! That's what I was looking for. It's probably an obvious thing for someone that has been following the movement for a while but like I said, I'm pretty new here. Also in the context of this discussion does Q4 start in July or Oct?Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Q4 FY 2012 is: July 2012, August 2012, September 2012.Quote:
Originally Posted by yesman
This has been a frequent argument that USCIS is unable to do FIFO - and while this might have been true before, I am not sure whether this hold true now. Do we have continuing evidence of it? I would imagine that in today's automated environment, it should not be difficult to enforce a non-random priority procedure.
It would be fair for USCIS to consider the batch of 485s that come after a PD extension on the basis of the receipt date of 485. I hope they do that.
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Originally Posted by skpanda
Gurus - thoughts on when 8/20/2008 will be current ?
imdeng, for sure I know people with latter PDs approved, while older ones still twiddling thumbs. I think within the date range current, it's the luck of the draw frankly. Others have disagreed with this on the past.
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Originally Posted by imdeng
I'm no guru. But I found this awesome model put together by Spec (possibly with help from others?) hereQuote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...oved-in-FY2011
According to this work, it will be sometime in in FY 2013 at best or in FY 2014
Pretty sure it won't be 2014. I think it will be Q1 or Q2 2013 but wanted a more "informed guess" based on the new developments.Quote:
Originally Posted by yesman
yesman, I don't consider myself a guru either. Just huge number of posts or lot of replies don't make one a guru. I also faltered as on last page on the emergency AP, thankfully someone pointed out, and I learnt not to reply out of just mind's whim without researching.
You did well in this reply, your understanding is correct.
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Originally Posted by yesman
Apr 2008 is on the long end of this years quota. The way DoS usually moves is a step function. Little to none till may and then huge movement for rest of the year. This year is a bit unusual because they need to take in a lot more cases. However to answer quickly - more than likely you will be counted against in 2013 quota. The exact timing could be anybody's guess but if you put a gun to my head I would say Q1-Q2 of 2013 could be it.
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Originally Posted by yesman
There is roughly a 37K demand prior to your date. Add some 7K of porting and and we are looking at roughly 44k prior to your date. Does that not put it more in Q4 2013 (best case scenario)? My intent is clearly not to be pessimistic but to understand the movement better along with everyone here.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Thanks Q! Waiting for a year before I can file for 485 does not look all that bad from where I stand now. I have been with my current employer for over 5 years and would like to do something new but that's about my only complaint.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Veni, thanks for the reply!Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
I understand that there is no clear requirement for assembling the packet. What we can do is to make it more convenient for the reviewer to find what she/he needs.
The following tip seems to be applicable to supporting documents only. For individual forms, I wonder what problem staples can cause.
"Use paperclips when attaching supporting personal documents to forms (do NOT use “ACCO” fasteners; staples are acceptable when attaching fees)."
Hello Folks,
Any guess when can I expect my EB2 to be current given my priority date is Oct 2008.
Thanks,
Ankur
Please see Spec's model - that will answer your question.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...oved-in-FY2011
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Originally Posted by iamsheshu
I am not a guru, but I think your chance is 60%.
I think Mr.CO needs to have a buffer zone of 5k-10k at least. You should be included in this buffer zone. It's just my personal opinion for your reference.
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Originally Posted by yesman
My personal opinion is August/September/October of 2012.
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Originally Posted by iamsheshu
Hi Spec,
Can you please tell me your thinking behind assumption -
Overall, this means that 68% of EB2 PERM certifications for PD2007 reach the I-485 stage and 72% of EB2 PERM certifications for PD2008 reach the I-485 stage.
I would think because of recession in 2008 , the number of PD2008 applications reaching I485 stage will be less than PD2007. (added fact that there is no EAD protection)
True but that would be to get the GC. With CO wanting to build inventory, wouldn't the PD become current sooner? Again, I'm just talking about being to apply.Quote:
Originally Posted by yesman
The discussions for the last couple of months have been about BTM and SFM and such. The underlying premise for these is to build inventory and not to actually give the green card in any given month.
If CO needs to build inventory....he can move the dates to any date he wants..question..is how much does he want to build;-) I am sure it will be one heck of a ride ...for next two bulletins!..by this way this is just a guess..in college days i had this on my door "PUSH" --> Pray Untill Something Happens..I believe in PUSH;-)
Thanks for the info, but I didn't get it quite right. I'll check again. Appreciate your response.
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Originally Posted by imdeng
Thanks Pal for your quick response. Is this your assumption or based on any data that you can provide ?Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
There are more than 40k demand before you, so your chance to file 485 in this round of demand build up is very small. But you should be able to file 485 in the next year's demand build up. The next demand build up may happen in the next summer or next fall. That's why I think you should be able to file 485 around August-October next year.
Again, I am not a guru, it's just my personal opinion. I don't want to mislead you with unreliable information. Please think twice if you use my info. to make future decisions.
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Originally Posted by iamsheshu
My personal opinion is that his target is around 35k. In the past several years the SOFAD has been between 20k-30k except one year and I think he knows this range. Additionally he needs a buffer to make sure he will have enough demand in the spillover season and the buffer should be around 5k-10k. Not every submitted 485 can be approved by next summer, so it's critical for him to have a buffer zone to give him more space to manipulate numbers.
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Originally Posted by jkrocks