EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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07-31-2011, 10:13 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

Veni,

I differ slightly.

Let's look at the June 2011 USCIS Inventory and ignore anything before 2010.

That leaves 8,016 cases shown on the Inventory for 2010 and 2011 still waiting at the end of May 2011 for approval.

Those cases only represent the numbers where the underlying I-140 has already been approved.

Any cases where the I-140 has not yet been adjudicated do not appear in the USCIS Inventory. Adjudication of I-140 for EB1 is now taking a very long time, so there are certainly far more potential I-485 cases than the Inventory shows.

I won't try to calculate it, but it will be a big number - the Inventory just shows a subset.

There will still be a big backlog of EB1 cases going into FY2012 - far bigger I believe than you are calculating.

Completion data is not necessarily from the same year as Receipt, so your calculation ignores any existing or continuing backlog. The number left pending is likely to be far higher.

The July EB1 data tells us that average I-140 receipts is around 1.5k per month (14,092/291 days * (365/12) = 1,473), so your calculation will be proportionately higher.

Spec,
Irrespective of when EB1-140 applicants are going to reflect as part of 485 invetrory, they must be part of monthly i140 receipts first and i would assume, at the end, EB1 backlog must come from this number only!

I agree that completions are not necessarily from the same year of receipt. So let's look at EB1-140 receipts and completions from FY2009 in calculating EB1 backlog.

Looking at EB1 i140 receipts and EB1 485 usage for FY2009 & FY2010 it is clear that FY2010 cleared ~4k EB1-140 backlog from FY2009.

FY2009 EB1-140 receipts ~ 27.5K [assume 100% of these cases processed by end of FY2010, approvals~21.8K (81%),denials 5.2k(19%)]

Based on 485 approval data:
FY2009 EB1-485 = 40,979 (i140 = 16.7k)
FY2010 EB1-485 = 41,026 (i140 = 17.1k)

FY2009+FY2010
EB1-140 Approvals = 21.8k + 13.7k = 35.5k
EB1-140 Usage = 16.7k + 17.1k = 33.8k

Difference = 35.5k - 33.8k = 1.7k (should be part of FY2011 demand)

Adding all EB1-140 receipts from FY2009 to FY2011 to-date, applying approval/denial rate (81:19) and substracting FY2009, FY2010 and FY2011 to-date usage/denials , i can't see anything more ~2.7k backlog!

Only way i can think of more EB1-140 backlog is by assume higher EB1-140 approval % in FY2009, even then I believe the difference can't be more than ~2k!

P.S: I hope i am not beating this horse to death!
07-31-2011, 10:26 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Veni

In your formular below ... you also need to add the 2010 pending at the start of the period to arrive at pending at teh end of 2011.

Q,
Please check my post above and see if at all makes any sense, I have used data from FY2009.
08-01-2011, 07:33 AM
Spectator

August 1 has finally arrived.

The very best of luck to everybody who has become Current, particularly Q.

May all your cases be picked up early.
08-01-2011, 07:56 AM
veni001

Q,
All the best, hope you will get approval this week.
08-01-2011, 08:39 AM
TeddyKoochu

Q and everyone who is current, all the very best may you all see approvals soon. All friends waiting good luck for the Sep VB.
08-01-2011, 08:42 AM
nishant2200

I feel it. I have been at times thinking of doomsday sceanarios, and will be more realistically positive from now. A happy n clear mind leads to good direction.

I am glad ur husband is able to keep away. I am addicted to Q's forum :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kanmani

Thank you Q . Thats a A+++ .

Sorry I was emotional . Permanent Residentship is not going to make much diff in my life, except for travel , but without it there is a feeling of uncertainity in all aspects. I dont know how many of you feel it .
08-01-2011, 08:54 AM
Monica12

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kanmani

Thank you Q . Thats a A+++ .

Sorry I was emotional . Permanent Residentship is not going to make much diff in my life, except for travel , but without it there is a feeling of uncertainity in all aspects. I dont know how many of you feel it .

JJ behen ( sister)...It's good to know you are female..we all have been calling you bhai all this time :)
Nishant, Q ... amen to that...realistically positive sounds good..good way to start the new month, so many hopes built in this month..
Q and others who are current. May all of you get your GC soon!
Good luck to everyone, including me who are hoping to be current in Sep VB!
08-01-2011, 09:03 AM
kd2008

From Immigration-law.com

http://i53.tinypic.com/2na32pe.png

As prevailing wage determination (PWD) has stopped, the PERM application process has stalled and hence a just a few PERM will be filed ..the ones that were in process before PWD was stopped. I also checked trackitt. Really tiny number of PERM filings in July. Of course we will follow to see if the trend continues. This is temporary as the process is supposed to be back up on 1 Oct, 2011 based on the publication of final rule today.
08-01-2011, 09:16 AM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by kd2008

From Immigration-law.com

As prevailing wage determination (PWD) has stopped, the PERM application process has stalled and hence a just a few PERM will be filed ..the ones that were in process before PWD was stopped. I also checked trackitt. Really tiny number of PERM filings in July. Of course we will follow to see if the trend continues. This is temporary as the process is supposed to be back up on 1 Oct, 2011 based on the publication of final rule today.

kd2008,
If my interpretation is correct, it is only affecting H2-B?
08-01-2011, 09:16 AM
TeddyKoochu

Quote:

Originally Posted by kd2008

From Immigration-law.com

http://i53.tinypic.com/2na32pe.png

As prevailing wage determination (PWD) has stopped, the PERM application process has stalled and hence a just a few PERM will be filed ..the ones that were in process before PWD was stopped. I also checked trackitt. Really tiny number of PERM filings in July. Of course we will follow to see if the trend continues. This is temporary as the process is supposed to be back up on 1 Oct, 2011 based on the publication of final rule today.

This is only for H2B cases. Prevailing wage request is required even for H1.

The H-2B working visa is a nonimmigrant visa which allows foreign nationals to enter into the U.S. temporarily and engage in nonagricultural employment which is seasonal, intermittent, a peak load need, or a one-time occurrence.
08-01-2011, 09:30 AM
kd2008

Teddy, Veni,

You are correct in the sense that the dispute is about H-2B. But if you read carefully, the note it says, "Pending the foregoing court battle jig jags, the agency's prevailing wage determination has been suspended. It is uncertain whether the determination of prevailing wage, ETA 9141, can be resumed soon or will have to wait until 10/01/2011"

So all PWD is stopped for now. So it affects PERM also. Hence the title of post says, "Causing Delays in Recruiting for and Filing of PERM Applications" which applies to the green card process.
08-01-2011, 09:38 AM
TeddyKoochu

Quote:

Originally Posted by kd2008

Teddy, Veni,

You are correct in the sense that the dispute is about H-2B. But if you read carefully, the note it says, "Pending the foregoing court battle jig jags, the agency's prevailing wage determination has been suspended. It is uncertain whether the determination of prevailing wage, ETA 9141, can be resumed soon or will have to wait until 10/01/2011"

So all PWD is stopped for now. So it affects PERM also. Hence the title of post says, "Causing Delays in Recruiting for and Filing of PERM Applications" which applies to the green card process.

kd2008 I agree you are probably right even though the dispute is related to H2B it sems to affect the entire process. Lets wait for further updates.
08-01-2011, 09:49 AM
mesan123

1 Attachment(s)

Attachment 82

just found this EB1 stats of Aila from other sites....may be it will be usefull for calculations
08-01-2011, 09:55 AM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by nnnnn123

Attachment 82

just found this EB1 stats of Aila from other sites....may be it will be usefull for calculations

nnnnn123,
Please check few pages back, we analyzed this data extensively last Friday(07/29/11) itself.
08-01-2011, 09:59 AM
qesehmk

veni

Looking at that post you referred ... I still don't see any reference to pending 485s as of end of FY 2008 and 2010. Perhaps you need to consider that.

But as you say ... we have beaten this to death. I guess you and spec were trying to figure out if there was a surge in EB1 processing. And the answer is absolutely there was a surge last year when they cleared all EB1 backlog.

Quote:

Originally Posted by veni001

Q,
Please check my post above and see if at all makes any sense, I have used data from FY2009.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kd2008

Teddy, Veni,
You are correct in the sense that the dispute is about H-2B. But if you read carefully, the note it says, "Pending the foregoing court battle jig jags, the agency's prevailing wage determination has been suspended. It is uncertain whether the determination of prevailing wage, ETA 9141, can be resumed soon or will have to wait until 10/01/2011"

So all PWD is stopped for now. So it affects PERM also. Hence the title of post says, "Causing Delays in Recruiting for and Filing of PERM Applications" which applies to the green card process.

KD you have become a de-facto Guru! Good find!

Everybody, thanks for the wishes! For those who are current - "Din hai suhana aaj pehali taarikh hain! Khush hain jamana aaj pehli tarikh hain"! Watch the song on youtube :) Bow to Kishorda!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

August 1 has finally arrived.
The very best of luck to everybody who has become Current, particularly Q.
May all your cases be picked up early.

Quote:

Originally Posted by veni001

Q,
All the best, hope you will get approval this week.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Q and everyone who is current, all the very best may you all see approvals soon. All friends waiting good luck for the Sep VB.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monica12

..
Q and others who are current. May all of you get your GC soon!
Good luck to everyone, including me who are hoping to be current in Sep VB!
08-01-2011, 10:03 AM
qesehmk

Announcement

Friends,

Based on people's wishes from the poll we recently conducted - We will NOT be mandating registration to view Live Discussion forum.

Although I and some others had a different view - I guess - if majority feels differently then that's what we will do.

Thanks for participation.
08-01-2011, 10:12 AM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kanmani

Friends

Eventhough all the available data denotes a low Spillover in the upcoming years , it is very hard to digest without a sugar coating . Too much of worst case scenario analysis breaks our heart (with later PDs) .

Actually, my husband who is the primary, never bothers for all these datas and number crunching . I , somehow got into this and ofcourse it is really interesting to read immigration related data analysis . But whenever I comeacross things like future of eb2 is indefinite , oh my God , ignorance is bliss.

"Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies " (The Shawshank Redemption )

Let me hope for the best .

Sorry :-( all the while i refered to u as u were JJ bhai...sorry JJ ben...

All the guys /gals who got current... jaldi khush kabri de doo...
08-01-2011, 10:12 AM
gc_usa

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Friends,

Based on people's wishes from the poll we recently conducted - We will NOT be mandating registration to view Live Discussion forum.

Although I and some others had a different view - I guess - if majority feels differently then that's what we will do.

Thanks for participation.

Thanks and good luck to you...
08-01-2011, 10:20 AM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

veni

Looking at that post you referred ... I still don't see any reference to pending 485s as of end of FY 2008 and 2010. Perhaps you need to consider that.

But as you say ... we have beaten this to death. I guess you and spec were trying to figure out if there was a surge in EB1 processing. And the answer is absolutely there was a surge last year when they cleared all EB1 backlog.

Q,
Let's assume EB1 pending at the end of FY2008 as "delta". As we can see from the 485 approval data EB1 did not use all its quota in FY 2008 and i would assume this "delta" should be small.

In addition for FY2009, pending i140 at the beginning of FY+ i140 receipts for FY2009 = Total i140 completions at the end of FY.

Before i put this to bed, my point is even if we assume same "delta" (EB1 backlog at the end of FY 2008) carried through EB1 backlog reduction last year, it wouldn't be very significant.
08-01-2011, 10:22 AM
mvinayam

Good Luck to all who are Current. Hope you all receive your approvals at the earliest.

Q, is it possible for us to get any info from your source regarding the Sep VB. Also, Gurus what is the final intake on SPOFAD for EB2IC for Sep VB??
08-01-2011, 10:34 AM
qesehmk

Yep fair enough.

Quote:

Originally Posted by veni001

Q,
Let's assume EB1 pending at the end of FY2008 as "delta". As we can see from the 485 approval data EB1 did not use all its quota in FY 2008 and i would assume this "delta" should be small.

In addition for FY2009, pending i140 at the beginning of FY+ i140 receipts for FY2009 = Total i140 completions at the end of FY.

Before i put this to bed, my point is even if we assume same "delta" (EB1 backlog at the end of FY 2008) carried through EB1 backlog reduction last year, it wouldn't be very significant.
08-01-2011, 10:49 AM
kd2008

Quote:

Originally Posted by veni001

Q,
Let's assume EB1 pending at the end of FY2008 as "delta". As we can see from the 485 approval data EB1 did not use all its quota in FY 2008 and i would assume this "delta" should be small.

In addition for FY2009, pending i140 at the beginning of FY+ i140 receipts for FY2009 = Total i140 completions at the end of FY.

Before i put this to bed, my point is even if we assume same "delta" (EB1 backlog at the end of FY 2008) carried through EB1 backlog reduction last year, it wouldn't be very significant.

With reference to the item I have bolded (?) and underlined, it may not be necessarily true as lower number of approvals may be due to FBI name check delays, esp, in 2008/2009. So the delta can still be large. I would be expect this delta to be small this year do to the overall efficiency improvements in processing from USCIS but one cannot be always sure.

Q, thank you for your kind words. I contribute what I can just as everyone else.
08-01-2011, 10:51 AM
murali83

Q,

One follow up question,

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...y-Breakdown%29

Based on that perms in Jan 2008-June 2008 for example are more than Jan 2007 - June 2007, did the economy dip just lower what would have been more.

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Kanmani ... ironically the bad ecomony and double dip will help EB2. The worst case for next year IMHO would be 18K SOFAD which is not too bad! So I wouldn't say EB2 has indefinite wait. EB2 has decent future. Its EB3 that doesn't look good at all. That's the reason why Indians and Chinese and ROW should join hands to abolish counting of dependents towards quota. Anyway ... keep happy. Getting GC is just a matter of time. Focus on things that are more valuable than GC :)
08-01-2011, 10:59 AM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by kd2008

With reference to the item I have bolded (?) and underlined, it may not be necessarily true as lower number of approvals may be due to FBI name check delays, esp, in 2008/2009. So the delta can still be large. I would be expect this delta to be small this year do to the overall efficiency improvements in processing from USCIS but one cannot be always sure.

Q, thank you for your kind words. I contribute what I can just as everyone else.

kd2008,
We are talking about EB1-i140 backlogs, i don't think 140 processing has anything to do with FBI name-check delays?
08-01-2011, 11:05 AM
bieber

Veni,

originally with your calculations it appeared that fy2010 eb1 140 receipts < fy 2011 but based on the recent information, fy2011 140 receipts must be less thatn fy2010 (we need to wait for 1-2 months though) if not equal.

is this correct?
08-01-2011, 11:39 AM
kd2008

Quote:

Originally Posted by veni001

kd2008,
We are talking about EB1-i140 backlogs, i don't think 140 processing has anything to do with FBI name-check delays?

Veni, you are correct. my bad. Could the delay be due to 2007 july fiasco and its load? I really don't know.
08-01-2011, 11:55 AM
qesehmk

murali,

First of all Kudos to Spec for terrific compilation of data. The data is for IC only but i think directionally it very well represents the entire PERM situation.

So to answer your question, although 2008 H1 was slighly higher than 2007 H1; full year 2008 came in lower than full year 2007. The recession although technically started in 2007 H2, only started feeling in 2008 and all the lehman crisis etc happened during H2 of 2008. That's why you see 2008 H2 was bad, 2009 full year was terrible. And then the stimulus in 2009 gave a fake sense of recovery which is why 2010 PERMs were higher than 2009. Come 2011 that sense of recovery is vanishing and now we will see 2011 PERMs will be lower than 2010 - which is what I called double dip.

While its bad for people who haven't even started their GC or barely begun it; the double dip will be beneficial to those who are in the hopper.

Makes sense?

Quote:

Originally Posted by murali83

Q,

One follow up question,

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...y-Breakdown%29

Based on that perms in Jan 2008-June 2008 for example are more than Jan 2007 - June 2007, did the economy dip just lower what would have been more.
08-01-2011, 12:09 PM
murali83

Yes Sir, It does make sense now.

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

murali,

First of all Kudos to Spec for terrific compilation of data. The data is for IC only but i think directionally it very well represents the entire PERM situation.

So to answer your question, although 2008 H1 was slighly higher than 2007 H1; full year 2008 came in lower than full year 2007. The recession although technically started in 2007 H2, only started feeling in 2008 and all the lehman crisis etc happened during H2 of 2008. That's why you see 2008 H2 was bad, 2009 full year was terrible. And then the stimulus in 2009 gave a fake sense of recovery which is why 2010 PERMs were higher than 2009. Come 2011 that sense of recovery is vanishing and now we will see 2011 PERMs will be lower than 2010 - which is what I called double dip.

While its bad for people who haven't even started their GC or barely begun it; the double dip will be beneficial to those who are in the hopper.

Makes sense?
08-01-2011, 12:14 PM
imdeng

Q - there was a line of thought that higher number of PERM in 2010 may have been due to lots of people losing jobs and joining new places and hence filing new PERM. If that is correct then we have some duplication in the PERM numbers. It seems logical that the duplication will show up in 2010 PERM since many people lost their jobs in 2008/2009 and most companies file PERM after one year of employment. Otherwise I really see no reason why we should have the 2010 PERM numbers as high as they seem to be (higher than 2007 IIRC).

My PD is Aug-09 and I am hopeful that the lower 2009 numbers will be helpful. I am also encouraged by the continuing bad economy - it has to affect EB1/EB2-ROW negatively - which is good for EB2IC. I am aware of the placement figures for a top business school - and the year I graduated (2008) - almost all international students got US based jobs - maybe 5% went back - that too sometimes because of better options back home, the year after that some 25% had to go back, and for 2010 graduating class about half of international students went back to home countries. The pattern has been so severe that international student arrivals from IC in top business schools has reduced significantly. There still are a lot of Korean students coming - but a higher proportion of them tend to go back historically.

EB2 GC pipeline really originates at the H1B level, which is filled partially by the international students in US. Both of these are down significantly - and perhaps for many years considering the economy and hiring restrictions on international students. This is potentially a tailwind for EB2IC PD in the long term.

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

murali,

First of all Kudos to Spec for terrific compilation of data. The data is for IC only but i think directionally it very well represents the entire PERM situation.

So to answer your question, although 2008 H1 was slighly higher than 2007 H1; full year 2008 came in lower than full year 2007. The recession although technically started in 2007 H2, only started feeling in 2008 and all the lehman crisis etc happened during H2 of 2008. That's why you see 2008 H2 was bad, 2009 full year was terrible. And then the stimulus in 2009 gave a fake sense of recovery which is why 2010 PERMs were higher than 2009. Come 2011 that sense of recovery is vanishing and now we will see 2011 PERMs will be lower than 2010 - which is what I called double dip.

While its bad for people who haven't even started their GC or barely begun it; the double dip will be beneficial to those who are in the hopper.

Makes sense?
08-01-2011, 12:27 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by imdeng

Q - there was a line of thought that higher number of PERM in 2010 may have been due to lots of people losing jobs and joining new places and hence filing new PERM. If that is correct then we have some duplication in the PERM numbers. It seems logical that the duplication will show up in 2010 PERM since many people lost their jobs in 2008/2009 and most companies file PERM after one year of employment. Otherwise I really see no reason why we should have the 2010 PERM numbers as high as they seem to be (higher than 2007 IIRC).

imdeng,

I agree that the FY2010 PERM figures aren't as bad as they look.

In addition to the factors you have mentioned, a number must be due to PERM certified for Porting purposes. These will actually have an earlier PD to attach to it.

The underlying figures are probably no worse than FY2009, which was the lowest yearly total.
08-01-2011, 12:36 PM
bieber

If there is no surge in overall I140 receipts for q3 and q4, that proves that EB1 demand for H2 will be much less than H1.
08-01-2011, 12:37 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by kd2008

Veni, you are correct. my bad. Could the delay be due to 2007 july fiasco and its load? I really don't know.

Based on I140 data almost all of July 2007 load (backlogs) was cleared by end of FY2009.

Quote:

Originally Posted by bieber

Veni,

originally with your calculations it appeared that fy2010 eb1 140 receipts < fy 2011 but based on the recent information, fy2011 140 receipts must be less thatn fy2010 (we need to wait for 1-2 months though) if not equal.

is this correct?

biber,
All we are trying to derive from the data is EB1 backlogs as of July 2011( EB1 to-date data availability).

From FY2009,FY2010 and FY2011 to-date data, it should be

EB1-140 Backlog = EB1-140 Receipts - EB1-140 Completions + "delta" (= EB1-140 backlog at the end of FY2008)
08-01-2011, 12:50 PM
qesehmk

H1 = First half of year
H2 = Second half of year

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kanmani

Q
I agree with you regarding double dip , CNN also forecast the same few weeks ago.
what is H2 here ?

imdeng - whoever those PERMs belong to ... higher numbers means there are employers willing to sponsor PERMs!! Right? I do agree however that PERM labor market is not exactly same as general labor market. In other words .. the need for high skilled labor (H1 & EB1/2/3 GC) is somewhat different from normal labor market. But the fact is banks bounced back in 2010 big time, big businesses turned to significant profits ... which is exactly whats good for the high skilled labor.

I think you are right about future outlook for EB1 and EB2ROW receipts (not necessarily consumption though - which has some backlog built now).

Regarding your MBA experience - its very interesting. I do think that the allure of US MBA will go away as India and China (more so) continue to achieve parity in terms of salary offered for top MBAs. Obtaining jobs in US for Indians and Chinese MBA graduates is extremely tough even otherwise unless the job is highly analytical as in financial industry. If recession deepens ... its going to be uglier. When I graduated I remember almost 10% of MBAs were Indians in all schools and about 30% total were foreign students. Wonder if that % has dropped now?

Quote:

Originally Posted by imdeng

Q - there was a line of thought that higher number of PERM in 2010 may have been due to lots of people losing jobs and joining new places and hence filing new PERM. If that is correct then we have some duplication in the PERM numbers. It seems logical that the duplication will show up in 2010 PERM since many people lost their jobs in 2008/2009 and most companies file PERM after one year of employment. Otherwise I really see no reason why we should have the 2010 PERM numbers as high as they seem to be (higher than 2007 IIRC).

My PD is Aug-09 and I am hopeful that the lower 2009 numbers will be helpful. I am also encouraged by the continuing bad economy - it has to affect EB1/EB2-ROW negatively - which is good for EB2IC. I am aware of the placement figures for a top business school - and the year I graduated (2008) - almost all international students got US based jobs - maybe 5% went back - that too sometimes because of better options back home, the year after that some 25% had to go back, and for 2010 graduating class about half of international students went back to home countries. The pattern has been so severe that international student arrivals from IC in top business schools has reduced significantly. There still are a lot of Korean students coming - but a higher proportion of them tend to go back historically.

EB2 GC pipeline really originates at the H1B level, which is filled partially by the international students in US. Both of these are down significantly - and perhaps for many years considering the economy and hiring restrictions on international students. This is potentially a tailwind for EB2IC PD in the long term.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kanmani

In the year 2008 , there was a huge scrutiny followed by the DoL , even they audited the perm by coming down to the employer's place. If the company had any lay offs earlier , employers certainly delayed the perm process of other employees. May be this is one among the various other reasons for high numbers in 2010

I agree. But I see all these scrutinies and throwing up different rules and change of procedures as ways to implement policy! In other words ... market has its own behavior in terms of labor market. But then the government also has a set of immigration policies to implement that usually go together with the market and political environment.
08-01-2011, 12:56 PM
bieber

Quote:

Originally Posted by veni001

biber,
All we are trying to derive from the data is EB1 backlogs as of July 2011( EB1 to-date data availability).

From FY2009,FY2010 and FY2011 to-date data, it should be

EB1-140 Backlog = EB1-140 Receipts - EB1-140 Completions + "delta" (= EB1-140 backlog at the end of FY2008)

Thx veni, I understood that and how you arrived at ~2k could be the delta. My point is our Facts&Data section shows that EB1 I140 receipts for fy 2010 < fy2011 but in reality it could be quite opposite (based on recent CIS information)
08-01-2011, 01:00 PM
piratla

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kanmani

In the year 2008 , there was a huge scrutiny followed by the DoL , even they audited the perm by coming down to the employer's place. If the company had any lay offs earlier , employers certainly delayed the perm process of other employees. May be this is one among the various other reasons for high numbers in 2010

The same continued later as well. For example Microsoft had lay-offs in the first half of 2009. They didn't encourage filing for new PERM applications almost till 2010 June. Also even though lay offs were in 2009, all those people who filed for PERM from MSFT in late 2008 got an audit in late 2009.
08-01-2011, 01:02 PM
soggadu

guys... i understand all of you are spending great deal of time on these new calculations... Can some1 please post a bottom line analysis in lay man's words please.... will be helpful for all of us "the lurkers"...
08-01-2011, 01:39 PM
skpanda

I do not think the 2010 PERM numbers (that we are discussing) will matter much:

Data from a previous discussion:

PERM Approvals:

EB- INDIA
PD2007 - 14.2k (approval after July 2007)
PD2008 - 23.3k
PD2009 - 16.0k
PD2010 - 21.0k (up to FY2011 Q2 PERM disclosure)
Total - 74.5K

EB- China
PD2007 - 3.2k (approval after July 2007)
PD2008 - 4.1k
PD2009 - 2.2k
PD2010 - 2.3k (up to FY2011 Q2 PERM disclosure)
Total - 11.8K

Combined (EBI&C) Total = 86.3k (assume porting in = porting out, from this total)

70K EB2IC primary applicants (About 150K GCs including family members - needed to clear the backlog).

Even if we consider Denials (140/485), People left for their own country etc, there will be around 55K EB2IC primary applicants (around 120K GCs needed including family members). Long way to go.

Hopefully the 7% country limit and counting the dependents are scrapped by passing a legislation in next 1 or 2 years. It should clear the backlog in a single shot.
08-01-2011, 01:53 PM
skpanda

Q, Veni, Spec, Teddy and others...

Do we have better numbers than the below PERM ones?

Something like Approved EB2 I140 beyond Aug 2007? If yes, that would provide a good estimate (although there will be duplicate I140s for porting cases i think).

Quote:

Originally Posted by skpanda

I do not think the 2010 PERM numbers (that we are discussing) will matter much:

Data from a previous discussion:

PERM Approvals:

EB- INDIA
PD2007 - 14.2k (approval after July 2007)
PD2008 - 23.3k
PD2009 - 16.0k
PD2010 - 21.0k (up to FY2011 Q2 PERM disclosure)
Total - 74.5K

EB- China
PD2007 - 3.2k (approval after July 2007)
PD2008 - 4.1k
PD2009 - 2.2k
PD2010 - 2.3k (up to FY2011 Q2 PERM disclosure)
Total - 11.8K

Combined (EBI&C) Total = 86.3k (assume porting in = porting out, from this total)

70K EB2IC primary applicants (About 150K GCs including family members - needed to clear the backlog).

Even if we consider Denials (140/485), People left for their own country etc, there will be around 55K EB2IC primary applicants (around 120K GCs needed including family members). Long way to go.

Hopefully the 7% country limit and counting the dependents are scrapped by passing a legislation in next 1 or 2 years. It should clear the backlog in a single shot.
08-01-2011, 02:41 PM
mesan123

I agree with soggadu....i also belong to "the lukers" list

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

guys... i understand all of you are spending great deal of time on these new calculations... Can some1 please post a bottom line analysis in lay man's words please.... will be helpful for all of us "the lurkers"...
08-01-2011, 02:46 PM
leo4ever

@Soggadu,

Why don't you read the whole thread rather than asking questions.
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..
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Just kidding man, i know you are comedy king :-)
Anyway, Mein ne app ko kahi pe dekha??????
Do you come on TV?

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