Hmm i believe no perm for eb1 ?.Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
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Hmm i believe no perm for eb1 ?.Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
yes, total 140 receipts - perm (eb2+eb3) = total eb1 receiptsQuote:
Originally Posted by neospeed
I have a general question and this has nothing to do with number crunching, so remove/delete if it is not appropriate. After the start of recession has there been a significant reduction in GC filing in EB2 I? The key word here is significant.
Also are more people returning to India due to improved opportunities there or lack of opportunities here? I don't have a large circle of indian friends, so I am trying to get this information here.
Thanks
Unless more data comes in, my final take now after today's information, for September 2011 bulletin is:
1st June 2007 with 3k movement.
I think EB1 approvals will pick up some steam beginning 1st August.
(This is unless they have some idea of a BTM, to which I don't know what probability to assign to. My heart wants it, but somehow my mind is saying they will wait and see until late Q2 FY 2012)
You are correct, that's why we are using PERM data and i140 receipts from USCIS dashboardto derive EB1-i140 data.Quote:
Originally Posted by neospeed
bieber,Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
Very good point, which is bringing very good observation. After thoroughly examining the monthly PERM & i140 data , off set between PERM approval and i140 receipt is 2 months. Once you take this into account then i140 receipts data from USCIS dashboard matches with PERM approvals+EB1 i140 (validates FY2010 as well as FY2011 to-date)
Abhi final mat Karo yaar... Aur dus din bore hojayenge....Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
So, instead of using the PD if we use (approval date + 2 months) that will yield the exact EB1 140 numbers?Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
I was hoping either you or spec will discover something in the lines of just considering certified or certified+expired but that's a lot to expect :)
bieber,Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
That's correct. Not exact number but very close.
I think we beat Certified/Ciertified+Expired PERM discussion to death long time back :)
Few more observations from EB1-i140 statistics:
EB1 -i140 completions (not including RFEs)
FY2010
13,744+3,886 = 17,630 (Avg. 1,500 per month)
FY2011 to-date
8,712+1,998 = 10,710 (Avg. 1,100 per month)
EB1-i140 completions are 4% more than the receipts in FY2010.
EB1-i140 completions are 24% less than the receipts in FY2011 to-date.
2011 to-date receipts compared to 2010 receipts:
EB11 - 3% decrease
EB12 - 3% decrease
EB13 - 6% increase
Guys,
The demand data as of July shows 6000 odd EB2I pending. Assuming by September the demand drops to 4000, starting next fiscal quota in October, will EB2 take in 2800 in one go as there is demand pending or will it allocate ~250 per month ?
Stemcell,Quote:
Originally Posted by Stemcell
In theory USCIS has to stick to monthly/quarterly limits from Q1-Q3. But based on the leads received for FY2011, USCIS issued all 2.8k to EB2I in the first half (Q1+Q2) of the year (~500 per month).
IMHO, as long as EB1 usage is low then USCIS may repeat the same for FY2012!
Stemcell,Quote:
Originally Posted by Stemcell
I agree with Veni.
The law proscribes that only a maximum of 27% of the total visas can be issued in each of the first three quarters.
Over the last 2 years, DOS has shown themselves to be quite creative within this law and has allocated 5-600 visas per month to EB2-I at the beginning of the year. I think they were able to do this without breaking the OVERALL limit for the month.
Perhaps more worrying is that the EB1 statistics just released suggest far higher approvals in FY2012 and that the low approvals in FY2011 are more a function of longer processing times than lower actual demand.
That may ties DOS hand in how many visas they can say will be unused, which is vital to strong movement earlier than July.
It will be interesting to see how DOS handle that. They may have to flout the law a bit to get the next batch of cases beyond July 2007 in time to stand a chance of USCIS adjudicating them within FY2012.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thank you Veni and Spec.
In 2010, found that Sep bulletin was released on the aug 9th, monday of the second business week. Hence maybe, we can expect it this year on the 8th, similar monday.
nishant,Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Hopefully demand data on Monday(08/08) and Bulletin on Tuesday (08/09)
I've been looking at these a bit further to try to understand what it might mean for next year.
First there is a slight inconsistency with the 2010 figures.
We know that there were 41,026 I-485 approvals in FY2010
The figures show 13,744 total EB1 I-140 approvals for 2010.
This gives a ratio of 2.99 to reach 41,026. We know from the DHS Statistics that the ratio was 2.4, so this is inconsistent.
Taking the figures at face value and assuming the same conversion ratios as 2010, 17,676 prorated receipts in 2011 should have turned into 14,380 I-140 approvals, which would be around 35k I-485 approvals. In fact, because denial rates are slightly lower in 2011, the number would be slightly higher than that.
If we assume that the FY2011 figure will actually become 26k I-485 approvals, then that is c. 25% less than expected (about 3 months worth).
If we assume that everything continues at the present rate in 2012, then we might expect at least 35k EB1 I-485 approvals in FY2012. The substantially lower denial rate on EB1C, if continued, would bring the figure over the 40k allocation.
This might cause some concern for spillover numbers in FY2012, since it suggests that EB1 will not contribute very much next year, when it has been the major contributor this year.
Bear in mind that the above makes quite a few assumptions and is a rather rough calculation.
This is not something we didn't know already, but I wanted to start the process of quantifying it and prompting discussion.
agreed. early 2nd week it is.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
thank you !
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec,
The 2010 I-485 approvals had a quite a few cases whose I-140 was approved in 2009. The same thing happened this year. Quite a few I-485 approvals this year had their I-140 approved in 2010.
I think that data is good for two purposes: Understanding denial rates for EB-1 and %age of EB1 applications out of the total pool of I-140 applications.
One thing totally apparent to me is the stupid rule of one visa number per dependent. Suppose it was not so, then just 14k EB1, leading to 26k SO to EB2, which would clean out 55k 485s, even if the rule begins being applied right now, EB2 would have around a 2 year wait only at worst. Sorry for digressing, couldn't help but see the benefits of this hypothetical proposal. I think this one, plus of course re-capture, are the two most uncontroversial and suitable proposals in a legislative fix.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
One thing I am a bit puzzled is that if the denial rate of EB1 (especially EB1C) is lower in 2011 than 2010, then why are we having so few EB1 approvals in 2011 as compared to 2010. Is it because the processing time of EB1 has increased substantially in 2011? Also, the primary to dependent ratio of 2.99 for 2010 (as Spec mentioned in his post) seems to be a bit on the higher side. I think Spec's earlier argument is very intuitive to understand; this year, we have 9 / 12 month worth of EB1 approvals and in the coming years we expect to have 12 / 12 months of EB1 approvals (assuming we consider similar processing times for EB1).
Now, if EB1 usage in the next year is 35K (from Spec's calculation), then the overall spillover EB2-I/C can expect is 8K (EB2-ROW+MP) + 6K (EB5) + 5K (EB1) = 19K (assuming things don't change for EB5 and EB2-ROW). EB2-ROW has a big backlog too; so, I am not sure whether it means fewer FA from EB2-ROW to EB2-I/C. This is surely a very rough calculation and has too many unknowns but with this assumption, the total # of visas that EB2-I/C will be receiving is of the order of 25K (incl. regular quota of 5.6K). I will assume that there will be 3K - 4K pending EB2-I/C applications (up to Aug'07) + approx 4K PWMB (assuming 1K will be cleared this year) + 3K - 4K EB3 -> EB2 porting. So this will account for 10K - 12K visas up to mid-Aug'07 that will be allocated next year. This will leave us with around 13K - 15K visas for the period after mid-Aug'07. Not sure how far the PDs need to move to consume these ~15K visas; maybe around early 2008? But, again this is a very very simplistic calculation and might have some flaws in my assumptions.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Please check i140 Receipts & Completion for Q4 of FY2009, there are 14.5k receipts Vs 25.2k completions. If you look at the PERM approvals for the same period it is only 2.5k, which mean more than 80% receipts & completions are EB1! Considering the 485 processing times, most of these EB1-i140 approvals (FY2009-Q4) got VISA assigned from FY2010 quota.
P.S: Even if i offset 2 months from PERM approval to i140 receipt, the result is almost the same.
Pch, 2.5k a month for post mid 2007 to late 2008, per month is my thumb rule for EB2 retrogess demand, in my rough calculations from data obtained by analysis of gurus n bit of my hacking.
I am with u in ur rough estimates. I feel we will barely cross 2007, and any date movement into 2008 will mostly just help get EAD.
As years progress, EB2 itself might be just at mercy of E4, E5, FB if any, and a consistent headwind of porting.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
Spec
Few days back I pointed out this possible oversight you are making. The numbers are not all on the same basis and do include ebbs and flows of the processing. Lets use some terminology to support formula
Approvals - A
Pending - P
Denied - D
I485 - 485
I140 - 140
2010 - '10
Unknown-Factor - F1 F2 F3 ..... etc
function - f
The formula you are proposing is a simple one
485'10A = F * 140'10A
In reality the formula would be
485'10A = f (140'10A, 485'09P)
<= F1*140'10A - 485'10P + 485'09P
p.s. -1) The factors themselves will vary from year to year. 2) I personally like to keep things at high level rather than get too much technical and forecasty.... (if there is such a word!!). So I would really not use such an equation .... I only put it down to illustrate the point that the data published is not all on the same basis.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
You are right!Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
That is true Nishant .... the more I think about it .... the more I am convinced that dependent limit if removed .... is the most effective relief for EB category as a whole which will benefit all countries. For India/China removing country limit may make sense but ironically removal of dependent counting will actually be more beneficial for India/China too.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
kd,Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Quite right and that does explain the 2.99 ratio. Thanks for pointing that out. Sometimes it is easy to forget such simple things and compare apples to oranges.
The same will be true of FY2012 I-485 approvals, so I think the main point of the post still holds true. We can expect much higher EB1 I-485 approvals in FY2012, unless either receipts drop, denials increase or processing times increase further.
Thanks again.
Q,
You're right. In trying to do something quickly I overreached what the data can tell us.
Originally in the May VB, the spare visas numbers from EB1 were portrayed as being available because of low demand in EB1.
It was true that DOS were seeing low demand as processing times and the backlog increased.
The figures just released reveal that the USCIS side of the equation actually shows flat or slightly increased demand for EB1 compared to FY2010 and the backlogs are now probably higher (certainly no less). The lower approvals in FY2011 are a function of increased processing times.
Unless it is a blip in the data (quite possible) the denial rates for EB1A/B have stayed about the same, but EB1C denials rates have reduced by over 30%.
Both those factors tell of increased I-485 approvals in EB1 for FY2012.
kd2008,Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
We talked about the processing delays with 140's & 485's before. This is the reason we are safe to take EB1 approvals until July 2011 & EB1-485 applications pending until 10-01-2010, in calculating EB1 demand for FY 2011.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I have a little different view point on EB1-i140 backlogs in-light of recent statistics USCIS released to AILA.
Based on June 2011 EB inventory there are not very many EB1 pending from FY 2009 , So let's ignore FY2009 EB1 for a moment.
Looking at FY 2010 and FY2011 to-date receipts and completions together
Receipts = 16,894 + 14,092 = 30,986
Completions = 13,744 + 1,988 + 8,712 + 5,884 = 28,340
Pending EB1 (as of Jul 2011) = 2,646 only (not sure this is higher or lower compared to beginning of FY2011)
If we assume similar to FY2011 demand (~1,100 EB1-140 receipts per month), approval/denial ratio (81:19) for next year then , estimated EB1 demand will be about 30K
Veni,Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
I differ slightly.
Let's look at the June 2011 USCIS Inventory and ignore anything before 2010.
That leaves 8,016 cases shown on the Inventory for 2010 and 2011 still waiting at the end of May 2011 for approval.
Those cases only represent the numbers where the underlying I-140 has already been approved.
Any cases where the I-140 has not yet been adjudicated do not appear in the USCIS Inventory. Adjudication of I-140 for EB1 is now taking a very long time, so there are certainly far more potential I-485 cases than the Inventory shows.
I won't try to calculate it, but it will be a big number - the Inventory just shows a subset.
There will still be a big backlog of EB1 cases going into FY2012 - far bigger I believe than you are calculating.
Completion data is not necessarily from the same year as Receipt, so your calculation ignores any existing or continuing backlog. The number left pending is likely to be far higher.
The July EB1 data tells us that average I-140 receipts is around 1.5k per month (14,092/291 days * (365/12) = 1,473), so your calculation will be proportionately higher.
Gurus here,
This is a really good forum, I have a stupid and dumb question. While most guys and forums would agree that FY 2011 has been a great year for Eb2. Let me ask a basic question (just looking at the big picture). The movement in FY 2010 was almost 15 months, while the movement in FY 2011 will at most be 1 yr unless a miracle shows up. So is it like, 2011 is a great yr considering the number of people in line with PD's in 2006-07 (this is what was mostly done in 2011) compared to PD's in 05-06 (dates cleared in FY 2010). Keeping that in mind, just looking at general picture, are PD's in 07-08 more than the last 2 yrs. Becos overall it all averages out to the standard 10 - 11 months per yr progression.
Thanks guys
murali,Quote:
Originally Posted by murali83
That is most definitely not either a stupid or a dumb question.
The movement in FY2010 was far greater, even with fewer spare visas because less cases remained unapproved for that period.
The Cut Off dates had briefly covered a lot of the period when they moved to June and August 2006 at the end of FY2008 and many of the 2005 cases appear to have been cleared then.
The USCIS Inventories have showed about 1.8 times more cases in 2006 than 2005 (18k vs 10k).
The monthly numbers in 2007/2008 are likely to be similar to those seen this year rather than last year.
The progression is dependent on the number of spillover visas available.
Although there were more numbers to get through this year, spillover has been much higher than FY2010.
Unfortunately, the signs are that spillover available may be less in FY2012, so progression next year may not be as good. The real work on determining that has not really begun yet.
Another factor to consider is that no one yet really knows quite how many I-485s there are waiting to be submitted. Some educated guesses have been made, but there is no good data from either DOS or USCIS.
Welcome to the forum.
Hi Spec,
Thanks for your patient reply. So as I understand it, they will have to process almost same number of cases for 07-08 transition as they did for 06-07 (it was much lesser for 05-06), but they just may not have the same spill over. Ok to sum up for a layman, there are 2 unknowns here, monthly demand for the transition from 07-08 (do we have the numbers by month or are we making an educated guess that they are likely to be similar to 06-07) and the 2nd unknown is much more complicated which is expected spill over. I did see in the prior discussion that some numbers on monthly demand for 07 has been posted, do we have any for 2008?
Yup, u are right demand is one thing and it is another ball game as to how many are still going to avail it by filing a 485. If you have any links to the numbers or any summary on that, it will be great. I don't want to get it all reposted, that way I can just lookup and read it before I can be on the page as u guys. I am assuming it is easier to lookup at demand by month rather than predicting spill over.
Thanks again Spec
Murali,Quote:
Originally Posted by murali83
You can find PWMB Monthly PERM breakdown (I&C) numbers here...
You may use PW data to derive EB2:EB3 demand and i140 to 485 ratios to estimate demand for IC once dates move past July 2007
Since, we have reached the end of July, I am summarizing the trackitt EB2I approvals in the past 3 months from Spec's meticulously updated data. For the July, we have seen 313 approvals and the corresponding numbers for May and June are 162 and 266 respectively. So, even though approvals were slow at the beginning of July, it picked up from 2nd week onwards. Plus, I have seen (and others have pointed out) that several 2007 cases have received RFEs with medical details being one of the most common reason. I guess these RFE cases will be approved in Aug - Sep and will boost up the approval numbers for cases that became current during July.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stemcell
Friends Spec makes some great points. Honestly if some kind of extra intake does not happen in September it may take a while to actually happen, May 2012 is definitely worse case scenario but not impossible. Here is why.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Most likely we will be left with 5K Preadjudicated cases, 6K new porting cases that will keep coming constantly over the year. This is will be more than sufficient to fully consume the EB2 I/C Cap.
Additionally once the new year starts 485 approvals will come to a normal level because there will be more regular case approvals unlike EB2 I/C in the last quarter are Preadjudicated and easier to approve.
USCIS will have more bandwidth to approve I140's as the spillover season is done this will help to have higher number of current cases being approved, it will spike up EB2 ROW and EB1 approvals. This factor will be really crucial because USCIS - DOS will be making assessments based on the first few months and if I140 rates pick up the assessment may not be that optimistic towards SOFAD.
Many have pointed out that especially EB1 SOFAD has largely been possible due to slower approval process however the receipts or incoming volume is not down. Let us consider the following analogy, up until the previous years EB1 approvals have been around the 40K mark this makes it 3.33K a month. This year most calculations are projecting anywhere from 12 - 18K of SOFAD, lets average out at 15K this makes 25K usage or ~ 2K per month. Now if we say that most of these deficient cases are say delayed by 4 months (This is based on 8 months approval time currently v/s 4 moths regular), so even though with the slowness in place the situation will completely normalize in 4 - 6 months with the backlog stabilizing, the deficient slow / cases will start coming at the regular constant pace. So in short the slowness of approvals for these cases will not be a factor in the coming year as it was this year unless the number of applications comes down. If for reason the rate of approvals start picking up just like it happened for perm it can very significantly impact SOFAD because the backlog is almost unprecedented.
Teddy, does this mean that if BTM does not happen in Sep VB, then we shall have to wait till May 2012, since there won't be anything similar to this years 12k which could be announced in advance and hence move dates without breaking law.
I also think if no BTM in Sep, we all should keep docs 110% ready to facilitate quick approval.
Another thing, Q, why do u think BTM can happen in Oct VB too
This is more of a theoretical discussion; BTM may only happen when there is either a compelling case for it or it is legally feasible. The legal feasibility can be justified in Sep followed by retro in Oct. However when the next year starts because the allocations are limited by the month or quarters the numbers for EB2 I/C will be limited. Anything will be completely contingent on EB1 and EB2 rates which will take atleast a quarter to assess. So I believe that BTM is less likely for numerical reasons in Q1 2012. The only thing that may expedite the process if they accept this year’s SOFAD as a benchmark for next year irrespective of how things work out early next year. It's really going to be a wait and watch situation. May 2012 is the absolute worst case scenario date for BTM however this possibility cannot be entirely ruled out.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Last year, the PDs remained constant for the 1st 2 quarters. So, if the PD for EB2-I/C in the Sep bulletin is around May - June'07, then it can be stuck at that point for the next 2 quarters. In the past year, they didn't move the PDs for EB2I (there was some movement for EB2C) since there were enough porting cases to consume the regular quota. I guess we can have a similar situation this year too and in that case, the PDs can only start moving from April'12. Maybe this is a worst case scenario and hopefully we will have earlier PD movement.
Veni
In your formular below ... you also need to add the 2010 pending at the start of the period to arrive at pending at teh end of 2011.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Because possibly they don't want to comingle BTM with 2011 quota. So they could rather move in Oct and then retro immediately. The fact is - there are so many combinations that they could try ... so its worthless to list all of them - But what is 100% certain is that there will be at least 18K SOFAD next year. The rationale is EB1 will eat its quota. EB5 will yield ~7K. EB2ROW will yield same as this year i.e. ~6K. Considering that 2007 has about 11K post July and the rest 7K will probably be sufficient through Mar 2008. Now if DoS must allocate all this by Sep 2012, & if processing time for EB2IC is 6-9 months (which is clearly more than ROW) then Mar 2008 needs to be current at least by Mar 2012. I would say Dec 2011 to play it safer. So bottomline - we must see Mar 2008 EB2IC current between Dec 11 - Mar 12. So either the BTM happens Sep or Oct. Or Dec-Mar. It would rather make sense to make the move Sep or Oct than Dec-Mar since it gives USCIS additional 3 months to adjudicate. The question is - is Sep any better than Oct? Actually the answer is Sep is worse than Oct. Sep is when USCIS is busy wrapping up 2011. So they shoudl rather do BTM in Oct.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Kanmani ... ironically the bad ecomony and double dip will help EB2. The worst case for next year IMHO would be 18K SOFAD which is not too bad! So I wouldn't say EB2 has indefinite wait. EB2 has decent future. Its EB3 that doesn't look good at all. That's the reason why Indians and Chinese and ROW should join hands to abolish counting of dependents towards quota. Anyway ... keep happy. Getting GC is just a matter of time. Focus on things that are more valuable than GC :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani