EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

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Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes

PERM Fact Sheet for FY2012 published today. Contains YTD information for FY2012.

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...t_Jan_2012.pdf

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Jonty,

Thanks for posting.

Compared to the fact sheet for the end of Q1 OFLC seem to have processed about the same number of cases in a month (about 4k), as they did in Q1 (12.4k).

It is not a particularly good production rate.

Maybe this is the continuing effect of the PWD gap last year, which didn't get back to normal until recently.

They seem to have spent the time processing Audit cases, since the processing time has reduced a month more than expected and the % has reduced from 33% to 26% (a 20% reduction). That probably also explains the increased % of Denied applications, compared to Q1.

Normal case processing time has increased one month and the % has increased from 50% to 60%.

Mostly correct. Dates need not be current for CP pre processing, but need to be current for and when Consulate schedules interview, which is the time actual PR is granted.

Vested interest: seems like dates gonna be current for my precious 11/8/2007 for a good period of time. Oh God yes please.

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Originally Posted by mesan123

Actually the dates may move in April and May bulletion too...As if CP cases need 3 months to process...and Jan 2011 date is almost 9 months away from current cutoff date.. but what ever the reason....once a person gets NVC reciept, his date should be current with in one year...GURU's can correct me if my assumption is wrong..

There is going to be moments in next months...when that is , i dont know....but i am assuming they should move early, if not there will be much inventory available as all the cases( who already applied) will ripe in 3 months for sure....

GURU"S can you let us know what your take is on this reciept...i meant by this reciept dates when do you think the dates could be current..

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

Mostly correct. Dates need not be current for CP pre processing, but need to be current for and when Consulate schedules interview, which is the time actual PR is granted.

Vested interest: seems like dates gonna be current for my precious 11/8/2007 for a good period of time. Oh God yes please.

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Nishant, even in the case of CP, it looks like actual PR is granted when the applicant is inside USA . The Consulate requests DOS for visa number in the first place and then schedules the interview, once the interview is done they stamp the passport with Immigrant visa which is valid for only 6 months. Later they send a sealed package ( just like medicals) to the applicant, which in turn must be handed over to the immigration officer at the airport .

Later the GC is sent to the US address within a month.

Kanmani & nishanth

When do you think the dates will move....based on NVC reciepts and with your previous experience's..

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Nishant, even in the case of CP, it looks like actual PR is granted when the applicant is inside USA . The Consulate requests DOS for visa number in the first place and then schedules the interview, once the interview is done they stamp the passport with Immigrant visa which is valid for only 6 months. Later they send a sealed package ( just like medicals) to the applicant, which in turn must be handed over to the immigration officer at the airport .

Later the GC is sent to the US address within a month.

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Mesan ,
My personal opinion is dates will move further in a pattern grouping the applicants into batches.

DOL PERM approval rate is approx 10K PERMs for Quarter, 10% are refiling (porting, change of employer) and Any body guess is 40% are india & china

ROW 5K translates @2 I-485's per PERM max I-485 demand is 10K.
with 1-140 rejection & other reasons another 10% less makes it demand for ROW in ALL PERM cases is 9K/Quarter.

current years trend for ROW demand is 36K ( for EB2 & Eb3), if 2/3 are EB2 row demand is 24K with spillover EB2 gets ~48K to 52K. we continue to expect 24K+ visas for China & India.

EB3 ROW once it moves post-2007, then movement gains momentum above data indicates max 12K to 15K /per year during recession. By next year this time EB3 ROW may experience what EB2 India & China is experiencing now.

Fag not cleared yet for EB3 India, if no change & demand continue like this probably in another 2 years EB2 India & china, EB3 ROW will be current then EB3 india will get benefit. OR NEED SOME LAW CHANGE TO SPILLOVER OR COUNTRY QUOTA OR RECAPTURE..................

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Originally Posted by vishnu

My PD is Sep 30 EB2 I

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Mine is Sep 2,10. Previously (before the March VB) some said in this thread his PD is some where in Jun, 2010 and he got in NVP notice and the dates are moved till end of Apr, 2010. So, based on that do we expect any forward movement of 5 more months?

Just looking for ways to get current..

NVC reciepts doesnot gaurentee being current next month....it can be anytime in next one year......

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Originally Posted by rasknorr

Mine is Sep 2,10. Previously (before the March VB) some said in this thread his PD is some where in Jun, 2010 and he got in NVP notice and the dates are moved till end of Apr, 2010. So, based on that do we expect any forward movement of 5 more months?

Just looking for ways to get current..

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Originally Posted by mesan123

NVC reciepts doesnot gaurentee being current next month....it can be anytime in next one year......

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Thanks, that explains me not to too happy :)
regards

I can second Kanmani's views on this. I have family who have come here on GC they got Immigrant visa stamped and the GCs are actually delivered to the US address a month afte they landed here. Also they have to be in US within the 6 months time frame from the date the passports are stamped for Immigrant visa at the CP.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Nishant, even in the case of CP, it looks like actual PR is granted when the applicant is inside USA . The Consulate requests DOS for visa number in the first place and then schedules the interview, once the interview is done they stamp the passport with Immigrant visa which is valid for only 6 months. Later they send a sealed package ( just like medicals) to the applicant, which in turn must be handed over to the immigration officer at the airport .

Later the GC is sent to the US address within a month.

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Originally Posted by srimurthy

I can second Kanmani's views on this. I have family who have come here on GC they got Immigrant visa stamped and the GCs are actually delivered to the US address a month afte they landed here. Also they have to be in US within the 6 months time frame from the date the passports are stamped for Immigrant visa at the CP.

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Kanmani is wrong on this one. Visa is allocated when it was stamped in passport. They just don't want to print green card and ship to abroad and can be misused , Even in AOS once you get email that AOS is approved you can get same stamp in passport from nearest office. If what kanmani said is the case then they have to send back people if they were issued visas when date was current and later it retrogress. F4 category and F2A category move back and forth 2-4 years and it can create disaster on ICE to deport or send back thousands of immigrants who got legal visas from consulate.

Bottom line , once AOS or CP is approved , visa is allocated.

I agree with Gc_usa on this...my friend also got the visa through CP....he priority date was late 2006...sh got it stamped last year may. what she informed me is it is just the green card will be sent to US address, but her stamping did mention it Permanent resident. She also explained me what GC_USa told.

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Originally Posted by gc_usa

Kanmani is wrong on this one. Visa is allocated when it was stamped in passport. They just don't want to print green card and ship to abroad and can be misused , Even in AOS once you get email that AOS is approved you can get same stamp in passport from nearest office. If what kanmani said is the case then they have to send back people if they were issued visas when date was current and later it retrogress. F4 category and F2A category move back and forth 2-4 years and it can create disaster on ICE to deport or send back thousands of immigrants who got legal visas from consulate.

Bottom line , once AOS or CP is approved , visa is allocated.

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Originally Posted by gc_usa

Kanmani is wrong on this one. Visa is allocated when it was stamped in passport. They just don't want to print green card and ship to abroad and can be misused , Even in AOS once you get email that AOS is approved you can get same stamp in passport from nearest office. If what kanmani said is the case then they have to send back people if they were issued visas when date was current and later it retrogress. F4 category and F2A category move back and forth 2-4 years and it can create disaster on ICE to deport or send back thousands of immigrants who got legal visas from consulate.

Bottom line , once AOS or CP is approved , visa is allocated.

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gc_usa, you misunderstood my phrase. I said,
Step 1 - Visa number assigned
Step 2 - Interview
Step 3 - Immigrant stamp
Step 4 - GC
Nowhere I said people would be sent back if date retrogresses. Once visa number is assigned there is no room to fear for retrogression. That is the plus point in CP Vs AOS.

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Originally Posted by gc_usa

Kanmani is wrong on this one. Visa is allocated when it was stamped in passport. They just don't want to print green card and ship to abroad and can be misused , Even in AOS once you get email that AOS is approved you can get same stamp in passport from nearest office. If what kanmani said is the case then they have to send back people if they were issued visas when date was current and later it retrogress. F4 category and F2A category move back and forth 2-4 years and it can create disaster on ICE to deport or send back thousands of immigrants who got legal visas from consulate.

Bottom line , once AOS or CP is approved , visa is allocated.

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Kanmani is correct.

The procedures are different for CP and AOS.

For AOS, the Visa number is requested and allocated against available numbers at the point of approval, so the PD must be Current at that time for an approval to take place and for the number of available Visas to decrease by one.

For CP, the Visa number is requested against available numbers at the time the interview is scheduled. The PD need only be Current at that time and the number of available visas reduces by one.

Even if the dates retrogress between that time and before the interview takes place, the Visa is still available to be allocated if the case is approved at interview.

Upon being granted a Visa at the Consulate, the applicant has 6 months to activate it by presenting themselves as an immigrant at a POE.

In doing so, they become an LPR immediately the immigrant package is processed at the POE and they are admitted into the USA in immigrant status (LPR).

The GC, (I-551) in either case, is only proof of LPR status and a temporary I-551 stamp is placed in the passport of a successful CP applicant at the POE to cover the period until the GC is delivered.

It is no different from being granted an H1B non-immigrant visa at a Consulate. Until you present yourself at a POE and are admitted, you do not hold H1B non-immigrant status.

If CP is really good in this time of retrogressions why do attorneys prefer AOS?

Any potential disadvantage for Cp other than that visit to home country?

Yeap...i understood it wrongly...thanks for explaining....

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

gc_usa, you misunderstood my phrase. I said,
Step 1 - Visa number assigned
Step 2 - Interview
Step 3 - Immigrant stamp
Step 4 - GC
Nowhere I said people would be sent back if date retrogresses. Once visa number is assigned there is no room to fear for retrogression. That is the plus point in CP Vs AOS.

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Can some one tell me whats fees for I485 and I131 for a minor child (need this info for a friend)

The disadvantages are, We can't apply for EAD/AP . When the applicant is already in US , he/she can't go back and forth to get local police clearance, local medical examination etc..

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Originally Posted by khushraho

If CP is really good in this time of retrogressions why do attorneys prefer AOS?

Any potential disadvantage for Cp other than that visit to home country?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by khushraho

If CP is really good in this time of retrogressions why do attorneys prefer AOS?

Any potential disadvantage for Cp other than that visit to home country?

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485+180 days job change rule is not applicable for CP is my understanding. Correct me if I am wrong here.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Can some one tell me whats fees for I485 and I131 for a minor child (need this info for a friend)

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http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00b92ca60aRCRD

Above link has the filing fee info. Under 14 filing with at least one parent $635 , if not $985.
131 if filed with 485 has no fee.

I wouldn't want to CP if it involves anything to do with local police. Police clearance in India is a hassle I would much rather live without. Plus somehow a "mailing it" process like 485 appeals to me rather than a face-to-face interview. Less stressful.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

The disadvantages are, We can't apply for EAD/AP . When the applicant is already in US , he/she can't go back and forth to get local police clearance, local medical examination etc..

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Another person with a PD in January 2011 has received the NVC notice. His PD is January 14, 2011. Earlier there was a post reporting a person with PD of January 20, 2011 receiving the NVC notice. And we already have Vishnu on this forum getting the NVC notice with a PD of September 30, 2010.

This was on trackitt.

givegreen

My pd is 14th JAN 2011 and I got my NVC last night. Looks like my date will get current in next 2-3 VB bulletins.Just wanted to share positive news for everybody out there waiting to get GREEENED!!!

Things are looking positive or at least I am trying to be optimistic as my PD is 05/20/2011. :)

Kanmani,

Nevertheless, of talent of putting down in words... you rock !

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Spec

Thank you for the detailed post.
I am an extensive reader for my whole life time, but lack the talent of putting down in words. Never submitted a single assignment in school days.:)

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hoping for the best jonty - hoping for the best!

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Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes

Another person with a PD in January 2011 has received the NVC notice. His PD is January 14, 2011. Earlier there was a post reporting a person with PD of January 20, 2011 receiving the NVC notice. And we already have Vishnu on this forum getting the NVC notice with a PD of September 30, 2010.

This was on trackitt.

givegreen

My pd is 14th JAN 2011 and I got my NVC last night. Looks like my date will get current in next 2-3 VB bulletins.Just wanted to share positive news for everybody out there waiting to get GREEENED!!!

Things are looking positive or at least I am trying to be optimistic as my PD is 05/20/2011. :)

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I am pretty much sure this coming VB you will become current. If i understand correctly from the below link

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2012/...ement-in-fb2a/

OP suggests that there will be a forward movement.. It may not be as big as earlier but still you will be greened soon.. :)

I remember someone in Trackitt posted that his friend got NVC notice for FEB 2011 sometime ago... Wonder if anyone has the validity of the statement or if someone else got notice beyond Feb 2011?

Please read this trackitt thread:
http://www.trackitt.com/uk-discussio...re-vb-movement

It was started in June 2011 and it reports folks from June 2008 getting NVC notices. So it seems there is a general - not specific - trend of sending out NVC bills 7 to 8 months before the actual date movement.

So the PD of Jan 2011 receiving NVC notice is expected to be current in October 2012 or so. Again this is just a conjecture based on past precedent. I hope we don't retrogress or if at all then not by much and resume movement in October 2012.

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Originally Posted by just_curious

I remember someone in Trackitt posted that his friend got NVC notice for FEB 2011 sometime ago... Wonder if anyone has the validity of the statement or if someone else got notice beyond Feb 2011?

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Read here: http://mail.trackitt.com/usa-discuss...ictions/page/4

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Posted by 1STFEB2011gc (15) 01 Feb 2012
to axsultana:

One of my friend received NVC fee notification and his priority date is feb18th 2011. That means EB2 pd will move to till may 2011 in March bulletin. Guys every one ready with your doc's.

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Originally Posted by GCKnowHow

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00b92ca60aRCRD

Above link has the filing fee info. Under 14 filing with at least one parent $635 , if not $985.
131 if filed with 485 has no fee.

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Thanks!

Apperently my friend's attorney 'gained' this knowledge only after USCIS sent their applications back :( for wrong filing fees. So he wanted to confirm.

Analysis given below says retro wont go beyond Nov 2008.
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...arch-2012.html

What do u guys think ?

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Read here: http://mail.trackitt.com/usa-discuss...ictions/page/4

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Thanks kd2008!

Two of my team mebers have have NVC receipts. Both have Ron as attorney and their PD is 24 Jan 2011 and Mar 2011. Isn't that cool :). Good luck all.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Two of my team mebers have have NVC receipts. Both have Ron as attorney and their PD is 24 Jan 2011 and Mar 2011. Isn't that cool :). Good luck all.

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While there are predictions that the PD for EB2I will move back to 2008, why is NVC is issuing receipts for PD March 2011? I like it but don't understand the reasoning behind NVC notices; does it imply that the PD for EB2I will move to April/May 2011 before retrogressing to 2008?

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Originally Posted by vgraj1

While there are predictions that the PD for EB2I will move back to 2008, why is NVC is issuing receipts for PD March 2011? I like it but don't understand the reasoning behind NVC notices unless something is going on behind the scene which we don't know.

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Yeah I have no clue on reasoning but having seen the receipts personally, wanted to share the news.

I was skeptical when I first read about 2011 PD NVC receipts in trackitt.. but info coming from you suninphx has got me thrilled! Even if it means 2011 dates will be touched in about an year thats great!! I can handle the wait as long as there is some clarity on movement...

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Two of my team mebers have have NVC receipts. Both have Ron as attorney and their PD is 24 Jan 2011 and Mar 2011. Isn't that cool :). Good luck all.

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Originally Posted by eb2ODer

I was skeptical when I first read about 2011 PD in trackitt.. but info coming from you suninphx has got me thrilled! Even if it means 2011 dates will be touched in about an year thats great!! I can handle the wait as long as there is some clarity on movement...

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Yeah , these have been good indicators of chance of movement. So lets hope for best.

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Originally Posted by eb2ODer

I was skeptical when I first read about 2011 PD NVC receipts in trackitt.. but info coming from you suninphx has got me thrilled! Even if it means 2011 dates will be touched in about an year thats great!! I can handle the wait as long as there is some clarity on movement...

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I totally agree with you. Suninphx is one of the great resource here.. Thanks Suninphx.

Do you know them in person suniphx....what is PD for march 2011 person...

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Two of my team mebers have have NVC receipts. Both have Ron as attorney and their PD is 24 Jan 2011 and Mar 2011. Isn't that cool :). Good luck all.

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Originally Posted by mesan123

Do you know them in person suniphx....what is PD for march 2011 person...

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Yeah...my team members..I have seen email from Ron with nvc notice attatched personally... exact date for March 2011 I will let you know Tuesday..

Thank you...share that with me on tuesday.....What is your take based this...i meant dates moments...any update from your lawyer :)

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Yeah...my team members..I have seen email from Ron with nvc notice attatched personally... exact date for March 2011 I will let you know Tuesday..

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