Kanmani,Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
5.6k is part of the net SOFAD(39k) or you can break it as
EB2IC regular quota - 5.6k and,
SOFAD from EB1/EB2ROWMP/EB5 - 33.4k
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Kanmani,Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
5.6k is part of the net SOFAD(39k) or you can break it as
EB2IC regular quota - 5.6k and,
SOFAD from EB1/EB2ROWMP/EB5 - 33.4k
Nishant the possibility for both the extremes 0 and 7K is extremely minimum the answer is probably closer to the middle. The extremes are theoretical possibilities at best. Roughly 30-32K SOFAD has happened, another 7K happening is the best of the best case scenario and nothing happening is way way too conservative. Realistically the pace of the September bulletin should be slightly less than Aug which was only 2.5K. Even though this may seem theoretical in reality the range for September seems to be in the range 2.5K to 3K. Even last year September was more of a finisher month this maybe even more true because Jul was way too long a shot they tested the waters sufficiently in July. Lets hope for the best in September. The only possibility of 7-8K movement is if the agencies are slightly unsure of Eb1 + EB2 ROW and they may just move the dates to 15-AUG-2007 to play safe. If that happens then only some not all people current will get approved.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
on a lighter note, if all the laws hold true, everybody else would have been earlier too, so your net position remains unchangedQuote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
It's in the 39kQuote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Total EB2IC = 39k, quota = 5.6k, Spillover from Eb5,Eb1,Eb2-ROW is 39 - 5.6 = 33.4k
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Veni I believe you should use 2.25 as the dependent factor, 2 maybe very liberal, this will actually reduce the SOFAD by 12K.
Very good deed done by you... Welcome to the forum officially...Quote:
Originally Posted by iatiam
cute one! I will say ... "uskee chapati banao". Be a cat that falls on its four feet no matter from where it falls down.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
IATIAM .... you have a large heart. God bless you.
Quote:
Originally Posted by iatiam
JJ bhai i think SO is spilover which we get from EB1/ROW etc and SOFAD is term used to include across and down spillover which means everything included from inside and out...Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Teddy.... veni might have used 2 because this ratio is applied for all over EB category than just EB2 IC... just wondering...Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
When i plug 19% EB1 denial ratio (FY 2011 data) in the equations then based on PERM breakdown
EB2-i140 denial rate will be ~13% and EB3-i140 denial rate will be ~3%.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I am using 2.4 from EB1-140 to 485 ratio based info from our FACTS AND DATA sectionQuote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
My approach is use 10 months EB1-i140 approval data and 10-01-2010 EB1 pending inventory to calculate FY 2011 EB1 demand.
http://i52.tinypic.com/neuxqf.png
In the above article, what does he referring to:
The statistics reflect that as of July 19, 2011, the total EB-1 number that will consume is estimated to be less than 4,200, excluding denied cases. It is not too bad at all for the Indian and Chinese EB-2 waiters
Teddy,Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
My feeling (not backed by thorough number crunching though, just my hunch) is also similar to what you are saying that reality might be somewhere between two extremes of 0K and 7K and going by last year's trend, the Sep bulletin was more like putting the finishing touches on the yearly spillover. I will surely be happy if I am proven wrong and the option of dates moving to Aug'07 even though all the current PDs don't get approval should be also a good thing. In this scenario, at least all the PWMBs can apply for I485 and from next year onwards, PWMB will be a thing of the past!
I think I am pretty much in line with TK.
There appears to be a mistake in the table for NSC 2010 RFE. Either the total is 4,003 based on 2,470 EB1C RFE, or it is the 3,003 shown, in which case the EB1C total should probably be 1,470.
Based on prorating the numbers for the rest of the year then I saw the following.
Receipts for 2011 would be 17.6k which is slightly higher than 2010.
Approvals for 2011 would be 10.9k, a reduction of 20.5% based on 2010.
At the fairly constant rate of 2.4 I-485 approvals per I-140 for EB1, this would translate to 26.2k. I feel that is possible slightly high.
Using Approvals and Denials as Completions, the Denial Rate in 2010 was 22% and is 19% in 2011 to date.
Broken down, the denial rates were :
2010
EB1A -- 40%
EB1B --- 9%
EB1C -- 16%
2011 to Date
EB1A -- 38%
EB1B --- 8%
EB1C -- 11%
The lower approvals seems to reflect much longer processing times.
The RFE rates were 38% in 2010 and 31% in 2011 to date based on the receipt numbers, although it is not clear whether RFEs also include previously backlogged cases as well.
Unless there are many more adjudicators handling EB1 cases at TSC, those people can expect a much longer wait for adjudication.
The % breakdown of Approvals per sub category in 2011 to date is :
EB1A -- 24%
EB1B -- 26%
EB1C -- 50%
which isn't that much different from last year.
All the above said, some strange patterns in EB1 approvals can be seen in the final 2 months of the FY. It is difficult to tell what will happen this year. There are factors for both continued healthy approvals and the drop usually seen.
Given the backlog, my best guess would be around 24k EB1 approvals for the year, although it could be slightly higher or lower. August will be an interesting month to watch.
Veni, I mis-read your multiplication was actually for the 2 quarters thanks for clarifying. We are coming up with different outcomes and values based on different approaches. I will definitely hope that you are right. Sogaddu, Veni calculation is great :).Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
neospeed,Quote:
Originally Posted by neospeed
You are not alone.
I couldn't work out what that statement meant either!
they may sound as same but i think the difference is with including the regular quota for IC in SOFAD..otherwise why would we have two acronyms... my lay man logic...Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Wait a minute... so as of July 2011 only 4200 EB1 140 approvals...if we can treat this document official, then why are we doing other calculations... 4200*2.x = ~8.5K ... if we even consider prev years 140's etc... we should still have atleast 20K+ from EB1 right... why are we not considering this document????Quote:
Originally Posted by neospeed
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Quote:
Originally Posted by neospeed
Spec; neospeed,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Even though i have used 25% EB1 denial rate in my above analysis (actual is 19%), EB1 usage (AOS & CP) per month is averaging about 2k.
Since the EB1-i140 data is dated July 19, 2011, i am assuming that it is referring estimated EB1 usage for August and September.
Veni...it is clearly stated that "The statistics reflect that as of JULY 2011 the usage is 4.2K..." very clear that it is for the current FY upto July ... bache log... if this document is true... 20K + more from EB1... then the question why didnt they move the dates in August if that is the case... god...i hate who ever invented the words "if" and "but"... or might be there is more to the document which we need to read...Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
soggadu,Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
Here is the language....i am not an attorney :)
"Since it is a statistics compiled as of July 19, 2011, it is fresh enough to get the picture of the two Service Center's I-140 processing volumes and processing backlogs in EB-1 category and total annual EB-1 numbers consumed or to be consumed by the end of this fiscal year. The statistics reflect that as of July 19, 2011, the total EB-1 number that will consume is estimated to be less than 4,200, excluding denied cases."
4.2K number is not from the official document... I think attorney added some masala (comments) :)...
"total annual EB-1 numbers consumed or to be consumed by the end of this fiscal year" ...doesnt it mean total annual number? here they use "or to be consumed" clause so that might be the reason why they used "Will consume" instead... then what is the 8.7K total number then?... might be out of 8.7K total approvals only 4.2K approvals are used for approving 485's?Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
The document is referring "EB-1 numbers consumed..." which i would take it as 485 instead of i140.
soggadu,Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
As i said i am not very good at interpreting language used by attorneys :(, but based on the trending (FY2011 to-date) i would take it as estimated EB1 usage for August and September.
i understand veni...all of us are trying to get the best out of it in our opinion's... my final take before i shut my brains off... 4.2K total 140 turing into 8.7K 485, i know not very convincing but... over and out...Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Friends thanks to neospeed the data is quite useful. It establishes the biggest piece in SOFAD which is EB1. Looking at the data ... its clear EB1 will yield about 17K SOFAD (i.e. 23K full year usage.). Can the usage be more or less? Its possible. But the trend is towards 17K SOFAD which is wonderfully supported by trackitt calculations as well. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ed-projections
So its quite reasonable to assume that the mean of the two projections in the link above is a reasonable estimate. i.e. 29K net SOFAD. Adding 5.6K EB2IC brings to 34.6K as mean scenario which predicts teh dates to be in first week of JULY if the movement is SFM.
Its absolutely possible that the movement could be larger than that but then that would be BTM.
p.s. - In terms of receipts one can clearly see that the fundamental demand hasn't come down at all between 2010 and 2011. In fact even denial rate was higher in 2010 than 2011. Its the suspended state of many 140s in RFEs which is a beneficial thing for EB2ICs. On another note if in 2010 there weren't the ROW PERM surge in Q2/Q3 then EB2IC would already start the year at Mar 2007 in OCt 2010. But that not meant to be!
Teddy is it significant enough to make a dent? EB3IC which are large buckets are not seeing any significant porting (2-3K max). So how much do you think ROW will offer? Besides porting is not just a function of applicant's desperation, its a function of job market as well. So wonder if you think ROW will be substantial.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
That was the simplistic approach I had used earlier but Spec rightly pointed out that CP numbers are not in there. So 39K is not realistic.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Thats great! I am feeling quite comfortable about EB1 SOFAD at around 17K.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Spec I think the reason those numbers don't add up is because they are not additive. There are ebs and flows of USCIS processing and only show snapshot of their work in progress.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Statment may be a mistake:Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
From the Table -
In 2011 - There were
13,794 Receipts <-> 8712 Approvals (includes some RFEs that got approved) <-> 1998 Denials <-> 4401 RFEs (includes some RFEs that got approved later)
This to me means 8712 Approvals have already happened i.e. 19,602 numbers are gone (8712 * 2.25 for family). There could be atleast 2 to 3K numbers consumption for EB1 for rest of the FY 2011. This would yild us around 18 to 19K SOFAD from EB1.
PS: In my opinion, some of the RFEs that got approved later on are double counted in Approvals and RFEs.
I could be wrong.. but this is my understanding. Please feel free to tear my logic apart.
Veni,
I was being picky and have deleted my post.
I think we can all agree it is very poorly worded.
I agree on balance, it is talking about I-485. But the article is about I-140.
No mention is made of I-485 in the entire article. There is no context given to the comment. We can work out how many I-485 might have been consumed to date - most people cannot.
So to say 4,200 for the rest of the year, without saying how many might have already been consumed adds no value. And what do denied cases have to do with it - they will never become additions. Why not just say approvals?
I read several instances on Trackitt that people with EB3 ROW 2006 PD are porting or considering porting, for ROW I don’t think its appropriate to call it porting a new application in EB2 works well. This trend is beginning to pickup this year because EB3 ROW folks are frustrated with the way it is moving for a variety of reasons. The numbers would be less than what we are used to see for India but It would not be surprising if this causes up 2K uptick in EB2 ROW demand.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
when we say there is delays in processing of EB1 and huge backlog, which may impact next year, doesn't it also mean that apps coming in into next year will also be hence actually be given visas late, assuming the delays remain same, and hence effectively this wont affect SOFAD next year, unless they ramp up processing times.
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
If you look at my calculation it does include CP based on (AOS/CP ratios), in any event the difference is only 4k net at the end.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Agree.
nishant,Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
That's a fair point, but this is how I look at it.
Processing times have increased this year by (for example) 3 months. So, 3 months worth of applications would have missed approval this year. So in effect, we only have 9/12 worth of approvals this year.
If nothing changes, we will have 12/12 next year, so an increase.
If processing times decreased to the previous level, we might get 15/12 in a year. Unlikely.
Only if processing times increased a further 3 months next year would the same number of approvals be seen.
Don't get hung up on the actual numbers, they are an example only to illustrate the point..
very meaningful explanation...good point...Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I don't know if this is of any interest to anyone.
Based on the average rate of usage to date and purely prorating the numbers to the end of the year, EB1 and EB2-ROW would end up at:
EB1 -------- 25,145
EB2-ROW -- 24,648
Generally, EB2-ROW has hovered at around that + or - for some time. EB1 has been nearer 24k + or -.
You would need to add EB2-MP to those figures - I would guess around 3-3.5k. I don't have any good data on those.
Teddy and others... If per country limit is removed for IC...then will EB2 ROW be current? little offtopic but i had this question .... this may also discourage EB3 ROW to port...Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
P.S. I am not at all making this as a discussion grounds for merits and demerits of the per country limits issue... please take my question as it is...
Spec... good post... so in theory... when CO opened SO from EB1 this year, he was of the opinion that EB1 would not be able to use its regular numbers (24K) right... so doesnt this point us to more SO from EB1 itself... ~20K ( as 16K SO is usual from your numbers )...or did anything really change since Apr 2011?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Currently there is 75-80K I/C demand + 10K ROW demand for EB2. So in theory if the country limits were abolished today EB2PD will be somewhere in Q1 2008.Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
Veni
for fy2010, the calculations you made for EB1, based on (total 140 receipts - Perm), is around 7000
while http://i52.tinypic.com/neuxqf.png shows fy2010 total EB1 receipts 16,894
I know perm numbers will not immediately materialize into 140 receipts considering the time it takes for perm to be approved and the front and back numbers should cancel each other.
But the magnitude of inequality (almost double the number) is not suggesting just that
What's ur take?