EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Dates will move ahead only in the summer or at the earliest spring 2014. There is ZERO chance of it happening before then. Drink those beers regardless :)

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Yeah, it's over for this year in terms of moving ahead. At best it remains where it is, but those chances are also very slim. What's the consensus right now,settling somewhere in 2007 for EB2I in Oct? I guess it'll be a good indicator on also how many EB3-EB2 portings came through for PD's between 2004 and 2008 in the past two months.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

The issue was that there was low demand AND low inventory. To add to that the applications didn't come in soon enough so he kept moving it further along. Now he should have used common sense and looked at historicals and even PERM data to see how much inventory he would be getting my moving x months. But you know what htey say about common sense.




Probably not till 2015.. unless CIR comes in to play.



Keep an eye out to see if you are approved. If you are then you should inform the CBP official of the same when you land in the US. Otherwise theres nothing else to be done.

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Viz, Thank you for the reply. Incase of an approval, what kind of proof should be shown at the port of entry and what would the outcome expected from the CBP official?

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Originally Posted by Guest123

Hi, My PD will be current in SEP and i have applied my 485. Currently i am travelling and will be back in the US on Sep 6th. Could you please let me know if there is anything that i should be taking care or be aware of for Sep 1st thru Sep 6th time period?

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Happened to me last year. Got approved while traveling outside the US, but at immigration informed the officer and was taken to the backroom and processed. Nothing major.

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Originally Posted by Guest123

Viz, Thank you for the reply. Incase of an approval, what kind of proof should be shown at the port of entry and what would the outcome expected from the CBP official?

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no proof required (you won't have anything anyway)... they will check it on the system

You will have your passport anyways. you will have EAD/AP card or H1 Visa for another US valid identity. If you really want to feel secure, keep a 485 copy as well.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Dates will move ahead only in the summer or at the earliest spring 2014. There is ZERO chance of it happening before then. Drink those beers regardless :)

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Well Im one of them who used to buy lottery tickets :) until I realized I cant cash them even if I win them. lol. one drink to scold pedro, one drink cursing viz for crushing the hope :) kidding.

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Originally Posted by RogerFederer

Well Im one of them who used to buy lottery tickets :) until I realized I cant cash them even if I win them. lol. one drink to scold pedro, one drink cursing viz for crushing the hope :) kidding.

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Why cant you cash them ?

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Why cant you cash them ?

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I guess it depends state laws. But some tickets clearly states the rules that non immigrants can't cash at all or more than a specific amount.
They say citizen of *, perm res of * etc to cash it if anyone wins

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Originally Posted by RogerFederer

I guess it depends state laws. But some tickets clearly states the rules that non immigrants can't cash at all or more than a specific amount.
They say citizen of *, perm res of * etc to cash it if anyone wins

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There are ways to get around that. Every now and then during the initial years of a recession, hedge fund managers from CT start to win the lottery in a hugely disproportionate compared to their % of the population. Even less likely they actually bought the tickets given how well they understand probability. In that case they are able to offset their tax losses in the stock market, and thereby actually get a larger % of the proceeds than otherwise. I'm sure you can find someone that'll be willing to represent you if you win.

However, the beer you spoke of is probably a far better investment than the lottery tickets.

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Originally Posted by RogerFederer

I guess it depends state laws. But some tickets clearly states the rules that non immigrants can't cash at all or more than a specific amount.
They say citizen of *, perm res of * etc to cash it if anyone wins

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The Permanent Resident refers to the IRS definition of the term, not the Immigration one.

I can imagine that some states have limits on Non Residents (in the TAX rather than IMMIGRANT sense) being eligible.

There probably isn't a single person on the forum who isn't Resident for tax purposes due to the Substantial Presence Test.

Certainly Non Residents are eligible in some States and a hefty sum is withheld as a flat 30% rate Federal tax and State tax might be applicable depending where the purchase was made.

Non Residents are apparently eligible to buy Powerball and MegaMillions, since both are multi-state lotteries.

The tickets must be purchased in the USA and different lotteries (Powerball is one I believe) also have rules stipulating that the prize must be claimed in the State the ticket was purchased.

YMMV

This makes much more sense. The word probably is resident rather than permanent resident. And the POV is IRS rather than USCIS.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

The Permanent Resident refers to the IRS definition of the term, not the Immigration one.

I can imagine that some states have limits on Non Residents (in the TAX rather than IMMIGRANT sense) being eligible.

There probably isn't a single person on the forum who isn't Resident for tax purposes due to the Substantial Presence Test.

Certainly Non Residents are eligible in some States and a hefty sum is withheld as a flat 30% rate Federal tax and State tax might be applicable depending where the purchase was made.

Non Residents are apparently eligible to buy Powerball and MegaMillions, since both are multi-state lotteries.

The tickets must be purchased in the USA and different lotteries (Powerball is one I believe) also have rules stipulating that the prize must be claimed in the State the ticket was purchased.

YMMV

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Q/SPEC,

I need help here.
I have applied for my I485 this month. Waiting for approval of EAD,AP and I485. But, my apartment lease is getting over by end of September. I have been asked to vacate the apartment for remodeling. I have to move out from the apartment, but am trying to negotiate with apartment office to extend it till end of this Year i.e. 12/2013. So, they are taking advantage of the situation now by increasing rent by 40%. Am little confused should I vacate the apartment or do I have chances if I wait till Dec2013 to get GC? MyPD is in NOV2007.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

This makes much more sense. The word probably is resident rather than permanent resident. And the POV is IRS rather than USCIS.

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Originally Posted by NOV2007

Q/SPEC,

I need help here.
I have applied for my I485 this month. Waiting for approval of EAD,AP and I485. But, my apartment lease is getting over by end of September. I have been asked to vacate the apartment for remodeling. I have to move out from the apartment, but am trying to negotiate with apartment office to extend it till end of this Year i.e. 12/2013. So, they are taking advantage of the situation now by increasing rent by 40%. Am little confused should I vacate the apartment or do I have chances if I wait till Dec2013 to get GC? MyPD is in NOV2007.

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I don't see the issue here. Why wouldn't you just move and file an AR11 and call the 1800 number? Or ask your lawyer to do so. What am i missing?

https://egov.uscis.gov/crisgwi/go?action=coa

Thanks Pedro. But what I heard due to address change the process gets delayed by subjecting to background check again. So many people who have vicinity of getting GC don't consider changing address and filing ar-11 forms and updating all applications. So my question for you,Q/Spec was to know if there are any chances of NOV2007 remaining current untill NOV or DEC this year. If its not going to be current then I don't have pay twice the rent what am paying currently and I can go with what you suggested in your previous post. I know its quite difficult for Q/SPEC to predict here, since they don't have any accurate metrics to perform their calculation and analysis. But, its just a suggestion am seeking.

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Originally Posted by NOV2007

Thanks Pedro. But what I heard due to address change the process gets delayed by subjecting to background check again. So many people who have vicinity of getting GC don't consider changing address and filing ar-11 forms and updating all applications. So my question for you,Q/Spec was to know if there are any chances of NOV2007 remaining current untill NOV or DEC this year. If its not going to be current then I don't have pay twice the rent what am paying currently and I can go with what you suggested in your previous post. I know its quite difficult for Q/SPEC to predict here, since they don't have any accurate metrics to perform their calculation and analysis. But, its just a suggestion am seeking.

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I hadn't heard of an address change causing delays, but I can see how it would be a concern. For what it's worth, I've heard of cases on trackitt where address changes resulted in the application getting picked up and approved . Have you looked through the various threads on the subject there?

I think most gurus here think the dates will retrogress in October or November, and that it is unlikely (though certainly possible) that you will get before your GC before then. Comparing the relative probability of getting your GC pre retrogression (say 25%) against the probability of a delay due to a change of address (in my mind 10%), I can't justify paying any more in rent just on account of your GC.

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Originally Posted by NOV2007

Thanks Pedro. But what I heard due to address change the process gets delayed by subjecting to background check again. So many people who have vicinity of getting GC don't consider changing address and filing ar-11 forms and updating all applications. So my question for you,Q/Spec was to know if there are any chances of NOV2007 remaining current untill NOV or DEC this year. If its not going to be current then I don't have pay twice the rent what am paying currently and I can go with what you suggested in your previous post. I know its quite difficult for Q/SPEC to predict here, since they don't have any accurate metrics to perform their calculation and analysis. But, its just a suggestion am seeking.

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you'll see the Oct VB by mid-Sept at the latest. So you'll have a little bit more info to decide to stay on (personally I wouldn't stay). Also, I dont know how it works with government mail but can you "hold mail" at the post office and just pick it up in person?

I really doubt they will re-do a background check based on a new address that you've had for a few days (at most).

Long time reader and follower (like since late 2010) of the blog. Finally joined here. Thanks every one for your analysis and readiness to help every query. This is an awesome place!

Thanks MakSimus for registering on this site.
I would request all others who just get-in to this forum as visitor and leaving, to create thier ids. This is just my request to creare a id here and post your thoughts and understanding of how PD will move. This way exchanging information here helps lot of people.

Viz/Pedro, Thanks for your quick reply.
Viz: what you say makes sense, next VB will definitely lead us to good numbers to formulate predictions for next FY. Will wait till next month end and decide upon address change.

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Originally Posted by Maksimus

Long time reader and follower (like since late 2010) of the blog. Finally joined here. Thanks every one for your analysis and readiness to help every query. This is an awesome place!

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This is my first post on this forum. First of all I would like to thank all the gurus for their selfless effort to provide accurate calculations and predictions.

I know the chances of dates moving in Oct bulletin is almost NIL and I had set my expectations for 3rd quarter of 2014. But after receiving RFE today there is this small ray of hope in me that tells be dates might move in Oct. Gurus please share your thoughts.

My PD : Jul-02-2008

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Originally Posted by NOV2007

Thanks MakSimus for registering on this site.
I would request all others who just get-in to this forum as visitor and leaving, to create thier ids. This is just my request to creare a id here and post your thoughts and understanding of how PD will move. This way exchanging information here helps lot of people.

Viz/Pedro, Thanks for your quick reply.
Viz: what you say makes sense, next VB will definitely lead us to good numbers to formulate predictions for next FY. Will wait till next month end and decide upon address change.

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Its better to submit address change now, once you have receipts. If its next month , there can timing issues with ead approvals. If u have h1 in parallel and moving out of state or such conditions are the problem creators.

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Originally Posted by justwaiting

This is my first post on this forum. First of all I would like to thank all the gurus for their selfless effort to provide accurate calculations and predictions.

I know the chances of dates moving in Oct bulletin is almost NIL and I had set my expectations for 3rd quarter of 2014. But after receiving RFE today there is this small ray of hope in me that tells be dates might move in Oct. Gurus please share your thoughts.

My PD : Jul-02-2008

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your RFE has nothing to do with date movements but its good that someone reviewed your file and will clarify all their questions and once you are current ( probably in 3rd/4th Q) you will have less chances of RFE.

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Originally Posted by indiani

your RFE has nothing to do with date movements but its good that someone reviewed your file and will clarify all their questions and once you are current ( probably in 3rd/4th Q) you will have less chances of RFE.

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Agree 100% with Indiani. It's a very good sign for those current now as well as those who are just outside the window.
1) they are processing cases past the COD in advance
2) they are in good shape with ppl current in august to have the bandwidth to do so

Spec, According to http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf there are about 220,000 people in waiting list for F2A. The annual quota was 88,000. CO thought that to use the annual quota he has to make dates current and so he did. Does this imply that 88,000 of the 220,000 follow through with a visa request? May be a little more depending on where the cutoff date lands in October bulletin. To me it is a curious case.

Why create a cutoff date in October? Why not wait till the exhaustion of Q1 quota and see where the usage lands. Or does CO think, the additional demand from making dates current is enough to use up Q1 quota? Your insight are very helpful in building an analytical picture. Thanks for all the wonderful work you do on the forum.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Agree 100% with Indiani. It's a very good sign for those current now as well as those who are just outside the window.
1) they are processing cases past the COD in advance
2) they are in good shape with ppl current in august to have the bandwidth to do so

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I am a little confused - would be great if one of the gurus could explain the process to me:

- my understanding was that most 485 cases filed in 2011/2012 have been pre-adjudicated and are now waiting in some sort of 'cold storage', waiting for PD to come close so they can be retrieved and approved when a VISA number becomes available.

- if thats thats the case, then why would getting a RFE for a July 2008 case not be a sign that dates may move forward again?

- lastly, except for final RFE for EVL (or whatever else), what kind of processing may USCIS need to do once the case is pre-adj? Does this mean that a large number of cases remain in cold storage that are not pre-adj?

Thanks!

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Originally Posted by mechanical13

I am a little confused - would be great if one of the gurus could explain the process to me:

- my understanding was that most 485 cases filed in 2011/2012 have been pre-adjudicated and are now waiting in some sort of 'cold storage', waiting for PD to come close so they can be retrieved and approved when a VISA number becomes available.

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this is true

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- if thats thats the case, then why would getting a RFE for a July 2008 case not be a sign that dates may move forward again?

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Dates will move forward at some time or another. It doesn't mean they'll move forward in Oct.

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- lastly, except for final RFE for EVL (or whatever else), what kind of processing may USCIS need to do once the case is pre-adj? Does this mean that a large number of cases remain in cold storage that are not pre-adj?
Thanks!

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based on the last data, almost all cases are pre-adjudicated. But pre-adjudicated doesn't mean approved. So the case officer reserves the right to review the case again and RFE. It could be anything from a birth certificate review to another background check.. its up to the case officer.