Friends following is the YouTube link of Dr. Arora's testimony, I hope you will all find it useful. This link was posted by user smuggymba on IV, Iam posting it here for everyone’s benefit.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtRXsP1-jDM
Printable View
Friends following is the YouTube link of Dr. Arora's testimony, I hope you will all find it useful. This link was posted by user smuggymba on IV, Iam posting it here for everyone’s benefit.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtRXsP1-jDM
It's a great testimony. Thanks for sharing.
The current crazy long wait of green card is killing all the motivations of chinese and indian eb immigrants.
Many talented eb immigrants got locked up for many years in the same spot. this system is killing all of us.
It's hurting eb immigrants, but also hurting the employers. EB immigrants are not happy and I can't believe people can work hard when they are not happy.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Actually i have to offset 9.6k for IC for full year in calculating SOFAD instead of 4.8k (half year) in my calculation. This brings net SOFAD from my calculations to 39k for FY2011.
SOFAD Breakdown
EB1-18,000
EB2ROWMP - 8,400
EB2IC Reg - 5,600
EB3- 0
EB4 -0
EB5- 7,000
Total = 39k
I have updated my previous post.
I have moved all the distractions from yesterday into our "dirty linen bucket" at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...t-Want-To-Read
If anybody wants to further speak on all those topics ... then that's the thread. Lets refocus on what we do best here - calculations - predictions and clarity.
Nishant2200,Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Just for the mental statisfaction can you move the dates by one more week to June22 :). It really makes you to worry a lot when you have wait till May2012 for the dates to move past Jun 20th :( .
My dear veni... thanks a lot for the numbers... can you please please please also tell me how much will be left for this sep bulletin...Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
soggadu,Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
Based on the inventory and demand data, at least 32K SOFAD must have been applied until August'11 Visa Bulletin.
Assuming no surge in EB1/EB2ROWMP processing/demand in the second half of FY2011, we can expect additional 7k to be applied to EB2IC in September Visa Bulletin.
Note: Any increase in EB1/EB2ROWMP usage for Q3-Q4(compared to Q1-Q2) could bring that number down to 2-3K or even to zero for Sept VB .
Note: Any increase in EB1/EB2ROWMP usage for Q3-Q4(compared to Q1-Q2) could bring that number down to 2-3K or even to zero for Sept VB .[/QUOTE]
Don't say that please....
Thank u so much veni... that means... this should clear the backlog or near end of backlog... which is good... i am tired looking at people's backs standing in the line...not that they are bad!!!... meera number aage laooooo.....Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
rahil1,Quote:
Originally Posted by rahil1
Even though i am optimistic about Sept VB, i like to keep it conservative for predictions.
Only if those AILA EB1 stats cud be seen now. I am afraid to ask my lawyer as he is kind of moody, n don't want to invoke his ire!Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Hopefully Someone will get it for us.
I hope some one can get this info. Does any one have a lawyer friend affiliated with aila that can share this doc ?.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
I know this is not the latest data - the latest data has 485 approval info. This one is I-140 approvals for EB-1 posted in Feb 2011. Hope this helps!
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD
EB1 data posted on immigration-law.com
http://i52.tinypic.com/neuxqf.png
kd2008, there is no one faster than you bringing the data to our forum, kudos to you
Yeah..kd2008.. that was super-fast. Thank you!Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
I thought we would have to wait till next week before we'd find it :)
2011 total EB1 140 approvals sofar 8,712,
According to Veni, Q1+Q2 approvals 75% of 7k = 5250
Q3 is close to 3000, atleast avg 1000 per month which is higher than previous 6 months, so EB1 small surge is happened and hence the movement in Aug bulletin
another observation
EB1-C receipts increased from 47% to 53% of total EB1 from fy2010 to fy2011 while approval rate changed from 52% to 50%
Thanks KD for the info, that was fastQuote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Kd2008,Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Great information.
Quick Summary
EB1-i140 Denial rate
2010 -23%
2011 -14.5%
Overall is about 19%
EB1-i140 RFE rate
2010 -37.6%
2011 -31.2%
Overall is about 35%
Bottom line only 8,712 EB1-i140 approvals(FY2011) as of July 19, 2011 - which reflect to about 21k demand for almost 10 months or 25k demand for full year. Which is very close to waht we have calculated(27k) in our i140 data and calculations (FACTS AND DATA SECTION)
I am indeed srisanth it seems. I thought of this again, and voila, in few minutes, kd2008 got the info!Quote:
Originally Posted by neospeed
So it means we are still on course for the at least 4k SOFAD more, if I am interpreting correctly.?Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Veni,
Just a quick clarification: in your SOFAD calculation, you have 18K FD from EB1. From the above EB1 data, the yearly demand is estimated to be 25K; in that case we should be expecting 15K FD from EB1, right? Or in other words, the FY11 SOFAD for EB2-I/C will reduce by 3K from your estimate of 39K (i.e. ~around 36K). Or, in other words, we will have around 4K remaining for the Sep bulletin. Am I interpreting the data correctly?
These are 140 approvals.....does this mean these applicants are documentarily qualified as well? Will USCIS to able to attach a visa to all the applicants in time?Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Regards
Nat
Sri.. in that case, please start thinking more and more that....in Sep VB , dates move towards Veni's upward projected target of 7K :)Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Numbers have come in. Now the Spec, Veni, Teddy and Q will rise again :) fun fun fun
this is the moment we strive here for! New data!
True....infact I look forward to their analysis more than the VB itself......its like watching tendulkar bat, rather than see the number of runs he scored....
Could very well beQuote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Good question,Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
Considering the current 485 processing times, EB1 demand could verywell be from the approvals until end of July (today:)), which is about 21K. In this case EB2IC could get upto 19K from EB1
See my response above, USCIS my be able to attach a VISA number for the approvals until July 2011 from FY 2011 quota.Quote:
Originally Posted by natvyas
bottom line guys ..whats the prediction final date for sep visa bulletin? as per spec's table 7k will lead to almost 1-Aug-2007? or is it only 4K?
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
This means we could get anywhere from 4k to 19K?
natvyas,Quote:
Originally Posted by natvyas
19k is total Spillover possible from EB1 to EB2IC for FY2011.
Guys, it looks like only 4401 (RFE) applications are pending.. which means we can get FY2011 kind of SOFAD in FY2012 as well... did i miss something?
I think anywhere from 4k to 7k. 19k - 12k already got is 7k.Quote:
Originally Posted by natvyas
so sept visa bulletin anywhere from 22-Jun-07 till 01-Aug-07?
this is spec's table :
22-Jun-07 -- 1,207 -- 2,665 -- 3,872 ---- 424
01-Jul-07 -- 1,371 -- 3,048 -- 4,419 ---- 547
08-Jul-07 -- 1,758 -- 3,409 -- 5,167 ---- 748
15-Jul-07 -- 2,146 -- 3,771 -- 5,917 ---- 750
22-Jul-07 -- 2,534 -- 4,132 -- 6,666 ---- 749
01-Aug-07 -- 3,089 -- 4,649 -- 7,738 -- 1,072
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Veni, can we rest in peace now regarding 0k :) I don't think that's a possibility. I would give it a 0.01 probability now.
For a simplistic calculation I will use only 2011 approvals.
EB1 I 140's approved in 2011 are 8712. However this report is dated Jul 19th So probably the data maybe from Jul 01 itself. So we should extrapolate this data for 12 months proportionately this would be 12/9 * 8712 = 11616.
I would like to assume the dependent factor for EB1 to be slightly higher; especially the EB1 C folks however lets use 2.25 and assume a 100% throughput to 485 approvals. This gives the approximate usage to ~ 26K. If we would have assumed the dependent factor to be 2.5 then the usage comes to 29K. Averaging this out we can settle at 27.5K.
Also note that there is an unprecedented level of EB1 backlog there is likelihood that in addition to this year some old cases will be approved. There are several examples on Trackitt for concurrently filed cases wherein people see direct approval of the 485 itself because both 140 and 485 are processed in parallel with 140 being the tougher part. The SOFAD from EB1 being ~ 12K is very much in line with all calculations.
I agree with Veni on the ball park figure of 32K SOFAD being already used with this there may not be more than 2-3K (From all sources) left for September. Additionally porting has now started in EB2 ROW as well because EB3 ROW have not moved much this year, EB2 ROW approvals are fairly consistent on Trackitt. I believe that the line for the September bulletin if its truely for approval puposes will be somewhere in Jun 2007.
Not only Eb1 usage we also need to look at eb2 row-M-P usage for overall sofd
Kanmani,Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Total AOS and CP demand calculated( Q1+Q2 )= 55.3k which include 2.8k EB2I approvals( based on CO statement) and 2k EB2C approvals(based on EB2C - PD movement)
All approvals for Q1+Q2 not including EB2IC = 55.3-4.8 = 50.5k , at this rate full year demand as 50.5*2 = 101k (not including EB2IC approvals, since it will be counted towards net SOFAD)
Now total SOFAD to EB2IC = 140 -101 = 39K
Hope this makes it clear.
Fellas, I am one of the "guests" who has been lurking in the background reading all the posts but not contributing to any thing in the forum. I registered a few minutes back and I am writing to let all of you know how much I appreciate the great contributions made by every one to this forum. I happened to visit the charity section of the forum and found the link to Sankara Netralaya. Happy to say that I have signed up for monthly contributions to the charity.I am impressed to find that even those questions which sound silly to me ("when will my date be current") are answered with patience. So again, I thank you for all the work done in bringing clarity to this otherwise completely unclear immigration process . May all be greened soon.
Regards
IATIAM
garibi mei atta gila :DQuote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
sometimes I wish I was born few months earlier, would have been then in early mid 2007 PD, if all other laws of physics hold true.
Quote:
Originally Posted by familyguy
DOL data shows surge in PERM filing ( discussed few pages back) so EB2 ROWMP will be key for net 2012 SOFAD calculations. We need to wait until Q3-Q4 PERM data release.
Looks like good possibility for upto 7k, at this point!Quote:
Originally Posted by whereismygclost
Agree, but it's hard to believe in USCIS :) based on their history.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200