EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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Originally Posted by rahil1

My PD is May 02 2007. Is there a chance I would be current in next bulletin?:)

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Refer to Spec's post in Facts and Data. - http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...r-Cut-Off-Date

Based on this your case is virtually sure shot as even by the most conservative estimate the dates should cross your PD.

thanks teddy:D

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Your thoughts are pretty much in line with reality. When predictions had started the ratio of EB2 India on Trackitt to the backlog was calculated, Q had the highest at that time as 26, and many other came up with lower values down to 10. In reality we have now gone away from this model but Trackitt is still very good in estimating ROW usage.

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Teddy you are right. Trackitt is pretty good ....but one need to be mindful of these things that keep moving. Those interested in using trackitt data to do some analysis on their own .. the best way to use it is always in relative terms rather than absolute.

e.g. look at EB1 this year and compare to last year's EB1 and see what the drop/increase is. Then use that multiple on prior years actual usage.

This trick is useful on almost all categories except EB4 EB5 and EB2ROW-NIW. Of course the more you try to slice and dice the data by country or any other filter.... the data starts becoming less useful. That is the reason why one needs to keep it generally at a high level.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Teddy you are right. Trackitt is pretty good ....but one need to be mindful of these things that keep moving. Those interested in using trackitt data to do some analysis on their own .. the best way to use it is always in relative terms rather than absolute.

e.g. look at EB1 this year and compare to last year's EB1 and see what the drop/increase is. Then use that multiple on prior years actual usage.

This trick is useful on almost all categories except EB4 EB5 and EB2ROW-NIW. Of course the more you try to slice and dice the data by country or any other filter.... the data starts becoming less useful. That is the reason why one needs to keep it generally at a high level.

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Q as you said the key is the best way to use it is always in relative terms rather than absolute this has been used in mine and your approaches here, I give you all credit for pioneering this approach being the first one to do so. Somehow EB1 cases have virtually dried of Trackitt that’s a bit puzzling; SOFAD though is completely at the mercy of EB1 usage though :).

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Originally Posted by rahil1

thanks teddy:D

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rahil bhai apko sahil toh milhi jayega...not to worry aap ka aur 03May bhai ka bhi date current hona hi hien...

Yes soggadu. If my date is by end of May 2007 I will be highly anticipating to be current. Very good chance for people upto June end actually. After that it becomes dicey and at the whim of DoS / USCIS.

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Originally Posted by soggadu

rahil bhai apko sahil toh milhi jayega...not to worry aap ka aur 03May bhai ka bhi date current hona hi hien...

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Q, as we begin the countdown towards D-day....any news from your source regarding VB release date or movement ? Please keep us posted :)

Someone posted the following link in trackitt on visa number usage - please check if it helps us in estimates.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...11-2nd-Qtr.pdf

Hi all,

I'm a newbie and just wanted to introduce myself. I've been checking this forum for a couple of months. Recently, I have been following all the posts. While the in depth analysis goes over my head, I am understanding the bottom lines enough not to ask 'When will my PD become current? :-D Just kidding. Like most people on this forum, the green card wait and associated uncertainty is an issue that weighs on my mind, at times heavily. My PD is Aug 2007.

So having said all that, I actually have a specific question. What type of RFE is 'EVL'?

Thanks,
essenel

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Originally Posted by essenel

Hi all,

I'm a newbie and just wanted to introduce myself. I've been checking this forum for a couple of months. Recently, I have been following all the posts. While the in depth analysis goes over my head, I am understanding the bottom lines enough not to ask 'When will my PD become current? :-D Just kidding. Like most people on this forum, the green card wait and associated uncertainty is an issue that weighs on my mind, at times heavily. My PD is Aug 2007.

So having said all that, I actually have a specific question. What type of RFE is 'EVL'?

Thanks,
essenel

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Welcome to the forum. EVL stands for " employment verification letter"

When are we expecting the Sep bulletin? Will it be around 5th of Aug or will it be the following week (11th - 12 Aug)?

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Originally Posted by pch053

When are we expecting the Sep bulletin? Will it be around 5th of Aug or will it be the following week (11th - 12 Aug)?

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I believe the following week (11th - 12 Aug) looks more likely, it will give USCIS / DOS more time to see how things are actually moving in Aug since this is the final bulletin of the year.

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Originally Posted by pch053

When are we expecting the Sep bulletin? Will it be around 5th of Aug or will it be the following week (11th - 12 Aug)?

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March 2011 VB came out on the 5th... but the last few have come out around the 10th. My guess would be the 10th-12th August this time too....but I'm hoping it comes out on the 5th.

Thanks Satya. Useful information.

There are 3 pieces of information that caught my attention over first 2 Quarters:
1. 485-EB receipts and approvals (36K receipts vs 46K approvals)
2. 140-worker receipts and approvals (42K receipts vs 31K approvals)
3. 485-FB receipts and approvals (150K vs 131K)

Roughly the most conclusive is third piece which tells us there probably won't be any SPILLOVER from FB to EB next year.
The other two pieces are interesting. #1 is basically all EB1 and EB2ROW numbers. So even if you double them - that's 92K. Add 8K buffer for extra approvals. It still gives 40K SOFAD!!!! That's not counting 8K from EB5 and 5.6K EB2IC allocation.
#2 tells you why there is slowdown in consumption. The approvals are far short of receipts. And then not all 140 are eligible to file 485 (almost 13K I should say which are EB-IC and some EB3-ROW).

So is 40+8+5.6K SOFAD real? Does this mean there could be a massive movement? I think following test will tell you.

Look at trackitt consumption of EB1+EB2ROW for Oct-Mar & then compare that with Apr-Today. Of course prorate the Apr-Today to make it semi-annual. I will do it myself when have some time. But till then if some of you have time do it and lets see what we get.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by satya1

Someone posted the following link in trackitt on visa number usage - please check if it helps us in estimates.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...11-2nd-Qtr.pdf

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Q - the total EB allocation is 140,000 (including EB4 and 5). So why do you add the spillover from EB4 and 5 seperately?

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Originally Posted by veni001

The following is the breakdown i derived after going through various data sources for Q1&Q2

I140 Denials(Average EB1-2-3)

FY2011(Q1+Q2)
Completions = 35,3331
Approvals = 30,820
Denials = 4,511 (~13%)

If we take EB1 denial rate as 25% then based on PERM breakdown EB2 will be at 10% and EB3 will be at 5%.

AOS(485) Breakdown

EB1 = 10,692 (including ROW-M-P EB2 NIW)
EB2ROWMP = 13,645
EB2I = 2,800
EB2C = 2,000
EB3 = 12,563
EB4 = 4,690
EB5 = 419
Total AOS approvals = 46,812
USCIS Data shows 45,981 (diff =1.8% )

CP Breakdown(Based on AOS Vs CP %)

EB1 = 1,253
EB2 = 599
EB3 = 3,969
EB4 = 1,735
EB5 = 978
Total CP approvals = 8,533
Total EB Usage(Q1+Q2) = AOS+CP = 55,345

I will try to post my calculations over the weekend, in the mean time if this breakdown doesn't make any sense, rip it apart!

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by satya1

Someone posted the following link in trackitt on visa number usage - please check if it helps us in estimates.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...11-2nd-Qtr.pdf

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satya1,
This is old info, this has been discussed about 20 pages back.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Thanks Satya. Useful information.

There are 3 pieces of information that caught my attention over first 2 Quarters:
1. 485-EB receipts and approvals (36K receipts vs 46K approvals)
2. 140-worker receipts and approvals (42K receipts vs 31K approvals)
3. 485-FB receipts and approvals (150K vs 131K)

Roughly the most conclusive is third piece which tells us there probably won't be any SPILLOVER from FB to EB next year.
The other two pieces are interesting. #1 is basically all EB1 and EB2ROW numbers. So even if you double them - that's 92K. Add 8K buffer for extra approvals. It still gives 40K SOFAD!!!! That's not counting 8K from EB5 and 5.6K EB2IC allocation.
#2 tells you why there is slowdown in consumption. The approvals are far short of receipts. And then not all 140 are eligible to file 485 (almost 13K I should say which are EB-IC and some EB3-ROW).

So is 40+8+5.6K SOFAD real? Does this mean there could be a massive movement? I think following test will tell you.

Look at trackitt consumption of EB1+EB2ROW for Oct-Mar & then compare that with Apr-Today. Of course prorate the Apr-Today to make it semi-annual. I will do it myself when have some time. But till then if some of you have time do it and lets see what we get.

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This can also be confirmed if we manage to get the EB1 numbers that have been posted on AILA website.

Vishnu

you are right .... can't add EB5. But certainly can add 5.6K since they are embedded in the total approvals. Also found another flaw .... it doesn't take into account EB3.

Alright so starting all over again....
36K 485 receipts. Assuming 100% approval rate and @full year = 72K.

So 72K EB1 + EB2ROW + some EB3 that become current because dates move + EB4+EB5. So total full year approvals could be max 72K + 40K (for EB3) = 112K.

That gives 28K net SOFAD. Adding 5.6K (which is alread factored in 72K above) gives us 33.6K.

So unless EB1+EB2ROW have accelerated we should be looking at ~34K SOFAD.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by vishnu

Q - the total EB allocation is 140,000 (including EB4 and 5). So why do you add the spillover from EB4 and 5 seperately?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Vishnu

you are right .... can't add EB5. But certainly can add 5.6K since they are embedded in the total approvals. Also found another flaw .... it doesn't take into account EB3.

Alright so starting all over again....
36K 485 receipts. Assuming 100% approval rate and @full year = 72K.

So 72K EB1 + EB2ROW + some EB3 that become current because dates move + EB4+EB5. So total full year approvals could be max 72K + 40K (for EB3) = 112K.

That gives 28K net SOFAD. Adding 5.6K (which is alread factored in 72K above) gives us 33.6K.

So unless EB1+EB2ROW have accelerated we should be looking at ~34K SOFAD.

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I think you forgot CP usage for whole year. Even if you take few thousands it will bring down SOFAD.

won't that be factored into the 72K and 40k?

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Originally Posted by gc_usa

I think you forgot CP usage for whole year. Even if you take few thousands it will bring down SOFAD.

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won't that be factored into the 72K and 40k?

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Originally Posted by gc_usa

I think you forgot CP usage for whole year. Even if you take few thousands it will bring down SOFAD.

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Yes to 40k , but no to 72k.

These are USCIS figures and don't include CP. CP does not involve an I-485.

I think we did this to death earlier. The I-485 approval figures are consistent with the Chinese figures without CP to the end of April of 52,475. Since then, we believe a lot of spillover has been released and the figure (including CP) reached 121k by the end of July.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

So is 40+8+5.6K SOFAD real? Does this mean there could be a massive movement? I think following test will tell you.

Look at trackitt consumption of EB1+EB2ROW for Oct-Mar & then compare that with Apr-Today. Of course prorate the Apr-Today to make it semi-annual. I will do it myself when have some time. But till then if some of you have time do it and lets see what we get.

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haan ji bhaiya... test bhi aap hi rakho aur answer bhi aap hi doo... aur koi chaara bhi toh nahi hein naa...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Vishnu

you are right .... can't add EB5. But certainly can add 5.6K since they are embedded in the total approvals. Also found another flaw .... it doesn't take into account EB3.

Alright so starting all over again....
36K 485 receipts. Assuming 100% approval rate and @full year = 72K.

So 72K EB1 + EB2ROW + some EB3 that become current because dates move + EB4+EB5. So total full year approvals could be max 72K + 40K (for EB3) = 112K.

That gives 28K net SOFAD. Adding 5.6K (which is alread factored in 72K above) gives us 33.6K.

So unless EB1+EB2ROW have accelerated we should be looking at ~34K SOFAD.

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Q,
If you look at the i140 data from the same document and compare with i140 completions from USCIS dash board for the same period
FY2011(Q1+Q2)
i140 Completions = 35,3331
i140 Approvals = 30,820
which gives Denials = 4,511
I140 Denial (EB1-2-3) ratio =~13%

If you take EB1 denial rate as ~25% then based on PERM breakdown EB2 will be at ~10% and EB3 will be at ~5%.

Hi guys,

My company filed my EB2 I-140 around Feb first week and it still pending (6 months so far). The online status shows "Initial Review" and the LUD is 2/24/2011. The NSC processing time for EB2 is 4 months. As per the Trackitt I-140 tracker, may cases filed after mine are already approved. Is it usual?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Q

The Report says the 36 K received during Q1&Q2, how can we include 5.6K within 72K , those 5.6k were already received during 2007 and getting approved from the inventory. The diff in receipt Vs approval (36K vs 46 K) arrived from backlog approval . correct me

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72k will be EB1/EB2ROWMP/EB4/EB5 estimated AOS receipts for full year and 91k will be total projected EB1-5(485) approvals, not including SOFAD but 5.6k regular EB2-IC quota.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by veni001

Q,
If you look at the i140 data from the same document and compare with i140 completions from USCIS dash board for the same period
FY2011(Q1+Q2)
i140 Completions = 35,3331
i140 Approvals = 30,820
which gives Denials = 4,511
I140 Denial (EB1-2-3) ratio =~13%

If you take EB1 denial rate as ~25% then based on PERM breakdown EB2 will be at ~10% and EB3 will be at ~5%.

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Veni thanks. I understood 13%. Great way of looking at it. What about 25% and 10 and 5%? Whats teh logic?

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Originally Posted by Spectator

won't that be factored into the 72K and 40k?

Yes to 40k , but no to 72k.

These are USCIS figures and don't include CP. CP does not involve an I-485.

I think we did this to death earlier. The I-485 approval figures are consistent with the Chinese figures without CP to the end of April of 52,475. Since then, we believe a lot of spillover has been released and the figure (including CP) reached 121k by the end of July.

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Spec you are right. CP is incremental. But now that has made it complicated since CP should be at least 10K. Right?
As per beating this to death ... it always helps to look at it from multiple angles. May be we used this data source. May be I am being senile!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Q
The Report says the 36 K received during Q1&Q2, how can we include 5.6K within 72K , those 5.6k were already received during 2007 and getting approved from the inventory. The diff in receipt Vs approval (36K vs 46 K) arrived from backlog approval . correct me

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The difference is backlog (ALL ... not just EB2IC though).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

So 5.6K should not be included in the 72K right?

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Kanmani,
You are ccorrect.

kanmani when you look at receipts and assume all will be approved then clearly 5.6K is outside. When you look at approvals and double them for full year then obviously 5.6K is included in that number.

Makes sense?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

So 5.6K should not be included in the 72K right?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Veni thanks. I understood 13%. Great way of looking at it. What about 25% and 10 and 5%? Whats teh logic?

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Q,
Here it is ....

From FY2011 Q1+Q2 PERM data
Total Approvals=35k
IC approvals = 20k
ROWMP approvals = 15k

Using 70/30 for IC and 50/50 for ROWMP will give following EB2:EB3 breakdown
EB2 = 21.5k
EB3 = 13.5k
Total = 35k


From FY2011 i140 Receipts data
Total i140 Receipts = 42K
EB1=7.0k
EB2=21.5k (taking from PERM breakdown)
EB3=13.5k (taking from PERM breakdown)
Total =42k

FY2011 Q1+Q2 I140 denials =4.5k (from my previous post)

Now, I am using the following logic for i140 denials

%EB1 denials>%EB2 denials>%EB3 denials, which means

4.5k = 7.0k(x%)+21.5k(y%)+13.5k(z%)
100%= 4.5k denials & x>y>z

Based on previous USCIS EB11&EB12 -i140 denial data i am assuming X as 25% and solving for Y&Z

If you wish you can plug different number for X and then solve for Y & Z

Hope i am not making any blunder!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by rahil1

My PD is May 02 2007. Is there a chance I would be current in next bulletin?:)

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by veni001

rahil1,
03May07 is also eagerly waiting, hope we will have the demand data/bulletin in two more weeks! :)

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ohhhh...my little brother rahil1...where have you been all these days!! Is it the frustration that made you speak up? Don't worry we have a good help group here.
I was all gung-ho before Aug bulletin, but not anymore - back to my zombie state of 2007-2010.
Looks like Sep bulletin will be promising for majority of us, as per gurus. (so, if you are a PWMB, no harm in checking on Immunizations appointments & costs as it varies from one civil surgeon to the other.

Also chotey bhaiyya rahil1, do you know you need to hate 01-May-07 = 01+05+07=13 => Evil #

I should be your bada bhai as my PD is earlier than yours;)
Me too I was so excited abt aug... not I am phuusssssssssss....
I have already filed my 485 in 2007 waiting to file AOS for my dear wife...

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Originally Posted by 03May07

ohhhh...my little brother rahil1...where have you been all these days!! Is it the frustration that made you speak up? Don't worry we have a good help group here.
I was all gung-ho before Aug bulletin, but not anymore - back to my zombie state of 2007-2010.
Looks like Sep bulletin will be promising for majority of us, as per gurus. (so, if you are a PWMB, no harm in checking on Immunizations appointments & costs as it varies from one civil surgeon to the other.

Also chotey bhaiyya rahil1, do you know you need to hate 01-May-07 = 01+05+07=13 => Evil #

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Veni

That's quite an effort. If your assumptions hold then the calculations look good. I only wonder how do you solve 2 variable equation with just one set of values?

Also I think you meant "X+Y+Z is not = 100%"

Quote:

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Originally Posted by veni001

Q,
Here it is ....

From FY2011 Q1+Q2 PERM data
Total Approvals=35k
IC approvals = 20k
ROWMP approvals = 15k

Using 70/30 for IC and 50/50 for ROWMP will give following EB2:EB3 breakdown
EB2 = 21.5k
EB3 = 13.5k
Total = 35k


From FY2011 i140 Receipts data
Total i140 Receipts = 42K
EB1=7.0k
EB2=21.5k (taking from PERM breakdown)
EB3=13.5k (taking from PERM breakdown)
Total =42k

FY2011 Q1+Q2 I140 denials =4.5k (from my previous post)

Now, I am using the following logic for i140 denials

EB1 denials>EB2 denials>EB3 denials, which means

4.5k = 7.0k(x%)+21.5k(y%)+13.5k(z%)
100%= x+y+z & x>y>z

Based on previous USCIS EB11&EB12 -i140 denial data i am assuming X as 25% and solving for Y&Z

If you wish you can plug different number for X and then solve for Y & Z

Hope i am not making any blunder!

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Veni

That's quite an effort. If your assumptions hold then the calculations look good. I only wonder how do you solve 2 variable equation with just one set of values?

Also I think you meant "X+Y+Z is not = 100%"

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Q,
You are correct, 4.5K denials = 100%, i have updated my post above.
Once we assume one variable (X) we can bring it down to two variables and two equations with Y>Z constraint.

I asked on Ron Gotcher forum in morning for help with the AILA EB1 stats on FY 2010 and FY 2011. no reply so far. generally they reply fast. seems they are not going to help.

u can see my question in their forum under adjustment of status section.

Let's get back to the numbers, analysis, predictions!

fellow web crawlers, keep mining the net for data points! Lets keep on trackitt for seeing EB1 trends picking up if any.

Latest tally in my opinion: 3k to 4k movement. Per Spec's table, brings to around 15th June 2007. (Sorry Leo :) )

Quoting one of my fav Robert Browning poem here:

At times I almost dream
I too have spent a life the sages' way,
And tread once more familiar paths. Perchance
I perished in an arrogant self-reliance
Ages ago; and in that act a prayer
For one more chance went up so earnest, so
Instinct with better light let in by death,
That life was blotted out -- not so completely
But scattered wrecks enough of it remain,
Dim memories, as now, when once more seems
The goal in sight again

no worries...06/08/2007 :)

I'm sticking to mine still...June 8th to August 1st.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

Let's get back to the numbers, analysis, predictions!

fellow web crawlers, keep mining the net for data points! Lets keep on trackitt for seeing EB1 trends picking up if any.

Latest tally in my opinion: 3k to 4k movement. Per Spec's table, brings to around 15th June 2007. (Sorry Leo :) )

Quoting one of my fav Robert Browning poem here:

At times I almost dream
I too have spent a life the sages' way,
And tread once more familiar paths. Perchance
I perished in an arrogant self-reliance
Ages ago; and in that act a prayer
For one more chance went up so earnest, so
Instinct with better light let in by death,
That life was blotted out -- not so completely
But scattered wrecks enough of it remain,
Dim memories, as now, when once more seems
The goal in sight again

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by leo07

Nishanth is our Srisanth.

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OMG ;) This very well means that EBI will get BTM next month since all that Srisanth bring is good luck.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by leo07

no worries...06/08/2007 :)

I'm sticking to mine still...June 8th to August 1st.

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Leo, for some reason I thought you are on 22nd June, not 8th June. I felt actually remorseful writing 15th June, was thinking of you all the while :)

Glad you are on the 8th, and sincerely hope you can make it!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ssvp22

OMG ;) This very well means that EBI will get BTM next month since all that Srisanth bring is good luck.

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ssvp22, I really hope that comes true. I will be more than happy to grow curly wild hair like Srisanth if there is a BTM. I will post a pic of me dancing in joy.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by veni001

The following is the breakdown i derived after going through various data sources for Q1&Q2

I140 Denials(Average EB1-2-3)

FY2011(Q1+Q2)
Completions = 35,3331
Approvals = 30,820
Denials = 4,511 (~13%)

If we take EB1 denial rate as 25% then based on PERM breakdown EB2 will be at 10% and EB3 will be at 5%.

AOS(485) Breakdown

EB1 = 10,692 (including ROW-M-P EB2 NIW)
EB2ROWMP = 13,645
EB2I = 2,800
EB2C = 2,000
EB3 = 12,563
EB4 = 4,690
EB5 = 419
Total AOS approvals = 46,812
USCIS Data shows 45,981 (diff =1.8% )

CP Breakdown(Based on AOS Vs CP %)

EB1 = 1,253
EB2 = 599
EB3 = 3,969
EB4 = 1,735
EB5 = 978
Total CP approvals = 8,533
Total EB Usage(Q1+Q2) = AOS+CP = 55,345

I will try to post my calculations over the weekend, in the mean time if this breakdown doesn't make any sense, rip it apart!

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by meso129

See if this helps for the calculations

http://blog.lucidtext.com/category/eb-5-statistics/

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by satya1

Someone posted the following link in trackitt on visa number usage - please check if it helps us in estimates.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...11-2nd-Qtr.pdf

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Let's get back to action....
After applying my i140 denial % breakdown to10-01-2010 inventory, FY2011 Q1&Q2 EB-485 receipts and i140,i360&I526 data for Q1&Q2, full year(AOS&CP) approvals = 55,345*2 = 110.6k (include 4.8 k EB2IC approvals from Q1&Q2)

This gives net SOFAD to EB2IC = 140k -(110.6 - 4.8 - 4.8) = 39k