EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

Very valuable words of (GREEN) wisdom. Thanks for sharing them here.

I came across below at the link http://canteyhanger.com/news/immigration-news/ and thought of mentioning it on this thread.
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April 24, 2019
Check-in with Department of State’s Charlie Oppenheim regarding the May 2019 Visa Bulletin

Employment-Based Preference Categories

EB-1:
Charlie cautions to not expect any forward movement for the EB-1 China and EB-1 India categories for the remainder of FY 2019, but hopefully we will see a full recovery of the Final Action Dates for India and China by October 2019, the first month of the new FY.

EB-2 Worldwide
Charlie continues to predict that based on current demand levels the EB-2 Worldwide will remain current throughout FY 2019.

EB-2 and EB-3 India
In May 2019 the EB-2 India category advances a total of four days, to a Final Action Date of April 16, 2009. EB-3 India remains ahead of EB-2 India, advancing one week for a Final Action Date of July 1, 2009. While Charlie is starting to see increased demand for EB-2 India numbers, he indicated that this category will move up to one week if this increased demand does not continue.

EB-2 and EB-3 China
In May 2019 the EB-2 China Final Action Date advances six weeks to May 15, 2016, and EB-3 China again advances three weeks for a Final Action Date of August 22, 2015. Charlie expects the EB-2 China category to continue to advance at a pace of up to several months unless demand dramatically increases. Members should expect EB-3 China to continue to advance at a pace of up to three weeks.

EB-3 Philippines
The Final Action Date for EB-3 Philippines advances 3 months in May to June 1, 2018. Members should expect continued aggressive advancement in this category for the foreseeable future.

EB-4
The Final Action Dates for EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras hold at March 8, 2016 in May. The Final Action Date for EB-4 Mexico advances four months to August 1, 2018. Members should expect continued forward movement in EB-4 Mexico until this category reaches it per country limit (possibly in July or August), at which time its date will match that of EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras can be expected to have forward movement before the end of this FY unless worldwide demand in this category increases.
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Originally Posted by sudiva

Very valuable words of (GREEN) wisdom. Thanks for sharing them here.

I came across below at the link http://canteyhanger.com/news/immigration-news/ and thought of mentioning it on this thread.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
April 24, 2019
Check-in with Department of State’s Charlie Oppenheim regarding the May 2019 Visa Bulletin

Employment-Based Preference Categories

EB-1:
Charlie cautions to not expect any forward movement for the EB-1 China and EB-1 India categories for the remainder of FY 2019, but hopefully we will see a full recovery of the Final Action Dates for India and China by October 2019, the first month of the new FY.

EB-2 Worldwide
Charlie continues to predict that based on current demand levels the EB-2 Worldwide will remain current throughout FY 2019.

EB-2 and EB-3 India
In May 2019 the EB-2 India category advances a total of four days, to a Final Action Date of April 16, 2009. EB-3 India remains ahead of EB-2 India, advancing one week for a Final Action Date of July 1, 2009. While Charlie is starting to see increased demand for EB-2 India numbers, he indicated that this category will move up to one week if this increased demand does not continue.

EB-2 and EB-3 China
In May 2019 the EB-2 China Final Action Date advances six weeks to May 15, 2016, and EB-3 China again advances three weeks for a Final Action Date of August 22, 2015. Charlie expects the EB-2 China category to continue to advance at a pace of up to several months unless demand dramatically increases. Members should expect EB-3 China to continue to advance at a pace of up to three weeks.

EB-3 Philippines
The Final Action Date for EB-3 Philippines advances 3 months in May to June 1, 2018. Members should expect continued aggressive advancement in this category for the foreseeable future.

EB-4
The Final Action Dates for EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras hold at March 8, 2016 in May. The Final Action Date for EB-4 Mexico advances four months to August 1, 2018. Members should expect continued forward movement in EB-4 Mexico until this category reaches it per country limit (possibly in July or August), at which time its date will match that of EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras can be expected to have forward movement before the end of this FY unless worldwide demand in this category increases.
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This is a month old article not sure if this is a authentic report neither Murthy nor others have reported this.

Please guide me

Scenario:
I am working for employer A and they have sponsored me green card process. In the green card process my Perm is approved and my I 140 is also approved in EB3.

Now I got another offer from employer B and they are also sponsoring H1 and green card processing.

Question:
While I start working on employer B and my perm is pending with them can I come back with employer A where I already have perm/i140 approved with them? Would this be valid?

Please guide
Thanks

This is the best advise you can get, for people who are still on H1 or on EAD. Dont wait for GC to reach the milestones in your life. Buying a house should really depend on your income and the stability of the Job. Im in the third house now, since I applied for GC.


I came to this forum to thank the moderators and all the people who give advice. I just got green card under EB2 (Priority date - april 15 2009). I really appreciate the work you are doing to help fellow immigrants.

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Originally Posted by cursedguy

This is the best advise you can get, for people who are still on H1 or on EAD. Dont wait for GC to reach the milestones in your life. Buying a house should really depend on your income and the stability of the Job. Im in the third house now, since I applied for GC.


I came to this forum to thank the moderators and all the people who give advice. I just got green card under EB2 (Priority date - april 15 2009). I really appreciate the work you are doing to help fellow immigrants.

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Congrats on your GC !! Did you receive any RFE this year?

I am on April 28, 2009 and have EAD and I got one very good job offer that pays 75% more than what I am getting right now. I have an approved 485J from last year. But I am wondering if I receive one more RFE with Sup J my new employer may not provide. Confused !!

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Originally Posted by cursedguy

This is the best advise you can get, for people who are still on H1 or on EAD. Dont wait for GC to reach the milestones in your life. Buying a house should really depend on your income and the stability of the Job. Im in the third house now, since I applied for GC.


I came to this forum to thank the moderators and all the people who give advice. I just got green card under EB2 (Priority date - april 15 2009). I really appreciate the work you are doing to help fellow immigrants.

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Congrats for the long awaited GC !! May I ask you few questions as I am sitting at April 28, 2009?

1) Did you receive any RFEs this year?
2) If yes, did they ask you Sup J?

The reason being, I submitted Sup J last year and it is approved. I am waiting for my EAD renewal to be done before October 30. But if I start apply the renewal now I am worried if that will trigger one more Sup J.
Also I got one job offer than is 75% more than what I get now but I am worried to take that if they send the RFE for Sup J, my new employer may not work with me well on that. Confused !!

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Originally Posted by techastro

Congrats on your GC !! Did you receive any RFE this year?

I am on April 28, 2009 and have EAD and I got one very good job offer that pays 75% more than what I am getting right now. I have an approved 485J from last year. But I am wondering if I receive one more RFE with Sup J my new employer may not provide. Confused !!

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1.) You are very close to the finish line so why take risk.

2.) Ask your new employer CLEARLY..will they give Supp J or not? Are the job resps same or not? If same, go for it; even if slightly diff, I would say don't introduce risk.

Hello Gurus, my EB2 priority date is Oct 29, 2009. While my priority date is still a bit away, i would like to be prepared for i485 application. Can folks here suggest good lawyers/reliable lawyers for i485 application, i am in chicago.

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Originally Posted by newsletter1978

Hello Gurus, my EB2 priority date is Oct 29, 2009. While my priority date is still a bit away, i would like to be prepared for i485 application. Can folks here suggest good lawyers/reliable lawyers for i485 application, i am in chicago.

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You have EB2 Priority date but are you going to file 485 in EB2 or EB3?

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Originally Posted by texas_

You have EB2 Priority date but are you going to file 485 in EB2 or EB3?

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I plan to wait out for EB2 to become current.

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Originally Posted by newsletter1978

I plan to wait out for EB2 to become current.

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it may not become current in next FY as the SO has been dismal since 2016 and outlook doesn't look too bright for this and next FY.

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Originally Posted by newsletter1978

I plan to wait out for EB2 to become current.

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Going to be a loooong wait bro.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Green Card is of course quite liberating. But don't give Green Card the power to take away key moments of your life or career. If you feel like buying a house, moving to a new job, having kids ... go for it. Of course there is risk ... but lost time does not come back. Remember that too.. Good luck to you all friends.

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Well said. Funny that I bought my home before I got the GC and sold it after I got the GC:rolleyes:

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Originally Posted by newsletter1978

I plan to wait out for EB2 to become current.

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I am assuming that you have already filed for I485 under a different category. Submitting I485 gives you extra protection once you pass the 180 days pending timeframe (AC21 law / same or similar category occupation). Needless to say you also get an EAD/AP. You can keep using your H1B and keep the EAD/AP only for emergency use. USCIS typically allows "DF" dates in October. So if you are looking to start your I485 clock you should do it.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Green Card is of course quite liberating. But don't give Green Card the power to take away key moments of your life or career. If you feel like buying a house, moving to a new job, having kids ... go for it. Of course there is risk ... but lost time does not come back. Remember that too.. Good luck to you all friends.

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Very well said Q, I could not agree more and would heavily recommend the same. From personal experience; my priority date is 5/1/09 (got my EAD in 2012) and after waiting for a couple of years I abandoned the H1 and moved to EAD and became self employed which has been rewarding both professionally and financially. Also bought a home in 2009 when the market was good and now have 10 years in it with decent equity. On top of all that, most importantly, I stopped worrying over the status as it was not in my control and left it to god. It has been one the most liberating things and I have travelled freely to India and wherever else we have wanted to go, and whenever, with no worries and have lived the way we have wanted to. This is not to say the life has been a dream but there are certainly no regrets at my end.

So...for all those who are holding their careers or worse your life.... Do yourself a favor and DON'T. Find the best job you can and live in the house you have wanted to. If anything, those things only strengthen your case. Just have a good lawyer look at the options for you before jumping on things. A 1 hr paid consultation is worth every penny if you go in planned with all your questions and followup questions on paper.

Visa Bulletin out! Depressing...no change in FAD for EB3I

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Originally Posted by NJMavarick

Visa Bulletin out! Depressing...no change in FAD for EB3I

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We simply do not know whether CO has already applied possible spillovers or will wait till the last quarter. The optimist will say that only 2800 EB3-I green cards are needed to get EB3I to go to current FAD. And the spillover will be applied in the final quarter.

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Originally Posted by NJMavarick

Visa Bulletin out! Depressing...no change in FAD for EB3I

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June 2019 VB is out.
EB1I-FA 01JAN2015 (-783 days movement)
EB2I-FA 19APR2009 (+3 days movement)
EB3I-FA 01JUL2009 (0 days movement)

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Originally Posted by rocketfast

We simply do not know whether CO has already applied possible spillovers or will wait till the last quarter. The optimist will say that only 2800 EB3-I green cards are needed to get EB3I to go to current FAD. And the spillover will be applied in the final quarter.

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I do think that spillovers are not applied! However, we are at the mercy of CO and I personally feel there is no method to his madness and there is no data to back-up the 0 days movement. He is and will always be conservative when it comes to moving the dates.

The EB5-I getting a FAD probably tells that there may be a few smart ones in EB2/EB3 seeing the writing on the wall and moving over to EB5.

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Originally Posted by rocketfast

The EB5-I getting a FAD probably tells that there may be a few smart ones in EB2/EB3 seeing the writing on the wall and moving over to EB5.

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Given the seminars that are being conducted in India for EB5 by various law firms, I am not surprised. There are quite a few folks in India who can easily afford to pay 500K$ to get into EB5.

Hey June bulletin is out. Looks like Eb2-I moved 3 days but technically only 1 day as April 17 & 18 is Sat and Sun

Hello Folks,

Long time follower, first time poster. I have a priority date of November 2010 with Company A. I moved to Company B in 2016 but haven't bothered restarting my GC process due to the company policy of no promotions (grade freeze) from the time of perm application to GC application. Now the company is pressuring me to start the perm process but I still haven't received the promotion I have been after all this while :( The decision I am trying to make is whether to stick to the current company and hope I will get a GC soon enough (in next 3 years or so), or start exploring options at a different company.

The other issue I see is it will be at least 12 to 18 months before the new company will start my perm. Add another 18 months to get Perm + I-140. Is there even a remote chance I will get current just to get EAD by then?My spouse has been on H4 for about 11 years, finally been able to work since last couple of years via H4-EAD which might be taken away anytime. The dilemma we are in is do I continue at my dead end job so that we do not miss the EAD boat?

Any helps or suggestions are appreciate. Thank you!

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Originally Posted by rocketfast

We simply do not know whether CO has already applied possible spillovers or will wait till the last quarter. The optimist will say that only 2800 EB3-I green cards are needed to get EB3I to go to current FAD. And the spillover will be applied in the final quarter.

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I don't think SO has been applied yet. We might still get to June 1st 2009 for EB2, and October 1st 2009 for EB3. 3 month movement for EB3-P is very interesting. They have the potential to be current over the next 6 months.

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Originally Posted by AceMan

I don't think SO has been applied yet. We might still get to June 1st 2009 for EB2, and October 1st 2009 for EB3. 3 month movement for EB3-P is very interesting. They have the potential to be current over the next 6 months.

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Good point Aceman. Hope Philippines get Current soon and stop consuming Rest of the World Spill Over. More likely Next FY they will consume very very less SO. Just hoping.

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Originally Posted by newsletter1978

Hello Gurus, my EB2 priority date is Oct 29, 2009. While my priority date is still a bit away, i would like to be prepared for i485 application. Can folks here suggest good lawyers/reliable lawyers for i485 application, i am in chicago.

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I am August 2009 and I am now not even sure for the entire FY 2020 looking the way the visa bulletin is progressing.Hate to say this but you might be lucky in FY 2021

Hello Spec and Q ,


It is time of the year where you have to provide us some guidance. You are the only Guru's we know of.

Based on the data you have collected so far. How many EB2india visas are left to be assigned for 2019 Fiscal.

This is not too much to ask for?

Compared to Jan 2019 bulletin with June one, EB2 FAD moved only 18 days, EB3 FAD moves 122 days where as EB2 - FD moved 10 days and EB3 - FD moved 0 days. don't know what to expect in the coming bulletins.

EB1 retrogresses, EB5 will in July. So does this mean there will not be any spillover for this year to EB2I?

Not sure about what the typical avenues for spillover are...if someone can throw some light it would be good.

My Priority date is April 17 2009 EB2I. I am finally current again in the June 2019 bulletin. I have a couple of questions and looking for help/advise here.

1. Come June 1, what can and should I do. I have read about SR, congressman, senator, Ombudsman in some forum posts. Not sure if there are any other avenues. How long should I wait before trying any of these - 10 days, 20 days. Also, is there any other channel besides the above.
2. My current EAD/AP expires on October 8 and apparently now, you can apply for renewal 6 months before. Should I apply for renewal or wait atleast until June. Will they reject the EAD/AP renewal if my GC is approved. Is it worth to get the renewal application after June 1 so someone in USCIS will “see” my case and approve GC and reject EAD/AP.

Please advise.

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Originally Posted by saagar_is_cool

My Priority date is April 17 2009 EB2I. I am finally current again in the June 2019 bulletin. I have a couple of questions and looking for help/advise here.

1. Come June 1, what can and should I do. I have read about SR, congressman, senator, Ombudsman in some forum posts. Not sure if there are any other avenues. How long should I wait before trying any of these - 10 days, 20 days. Also, is there any other channel besides the above.
2. My current EAD/AP expires on October 8 and apparently now, you can apply for renewal 6 months before. Should I apply for renewal or wait atleast until June. Will they reject the EAD/AP renewal if my GC is approved. Is it worth to get the renewal application after June 1 so someone in USCIS will “see” my case and approve GC and reject EAD/AP.

Please advise.

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Reg 1. No practical knowledge on this. If your congressman is willing to do it, then there is no need to wait. Some congressman will not do any followup's unless an "y" number of days had passed (say 30 or 60).
Reg 2. Apply for renewal ASAP. Don't "hope" or "wait" for GC approval. I am assuming that you are doing the renewal yourself and you don't need to pay an fees. The new I-765 form is more detailed than the old one. So it might take a little bit more time. Better to be safe than sorry.

I agree with idliman. Apply for EAD renewal anyways.

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Originally Posted by vyruss

EB1 retrogresses, EB5 will in July. So does this mean there will not be any spillover for this year to EB2I?

Not sure about what the typical avenues for spillover are...if someone can throw some light it would be good.

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There very well could be from EB2 Row specially considering that EB2-ROW is current and CO didnt say anything about retrogressing it. Same applies for EB3 too.

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Originally Posted by delguy

There very well could be from EB2 Row specially considering that EB2-ROW is current and CO didnt say anything about retrogressing it. Same applies for EB3 too.

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There is also a possibility of spillovers from Family quota. If Trump admin is lengthening the process on EB side, they could very well be doing the same in FB side. RedSox posted a few weeks back that for the first half of the year, FB was 12000 numbers behind.

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Originally Posted by mcmilers

I agree with idliman. Apply for EAD renewal anyways.

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Quick Q, does the EAD renewal triggers RFE for Sup J again though we have an already approved Sup J last year? I am sitting with April 28,2009 PD and my current EAD expires on October 12, 2019. Thanks

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Originally Posted by rocketfast

There is also a possibility of spillovers from Family quota. If Trump admin is lengthening the process on EB side, they could very well be doing the same in FB side. RedSox posted a few weeks back that for the first half of the year, FB was 12000 numbers behind.

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I do not think spillovers can be applied from FB to EB in the same FY. Any unused FB this FY will spill over to EB next FY.

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Originally Posted by bikenlalan

I do not think spillovers can be applied from FB to EB in the same FY. Any unused FB this FY will spill over to EB next FY.

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Right. If I remember correctly, they start applying it in the first quarter of the next FY itself.

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Originally Posted by idliman

Reg 1. No practical knowledge on this. If your congressman is willing to do it, then there is no need to wait. Some congressman will not do any followup's unless an "y" number of days had passed (say 30 or 60).
Reg 2. Apply for renewal ASAP. Don't "hope" or "wait" for GC approval. I am assuming that you are doing the renewal yourself and you don't need to pay an fees. The new I-765 form is more detailed than the old one. So it might take a little bit more time. Better to be safe than sorry.

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Thank you. I will check who our local congressman is, and what their policy is. For 2. the EAD/AP card expires on October 8, so I was thinking of waiting through June and apply anyways before 120 days. Now that EAD renewal is automatic for 6 months post expiry if you apply before expiration date, I was thinking of doing wait and watch. But I will take your advice and renew it to have 1 less thing to worry about.

Experts - need your advice.

My priority date is June 2009. I have an approved EB3 140 from 2011 and ported that date to EB2 140 approved in 2013 with the same company. I filed 485 in 2015 based on EB2 filing dates. I am no longer with that company.

Now my date is current under EB3 but not under EB2. Can I request USCIS to use my EB3 140 for my 485. If yes what is the procedure and is there any risk in doing so?

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Originally Posted by bikenlalan

I do not think spillovers can be applied from FB to EB in the same FY. Any unused FB this FY will spill over to EB next FY.

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Agree and they get divided equally into all EB categories. So unless there is a significant spillover from FB, it wont change the EB2 needle much. The good news is that EB2/3 ROW is still current and therefofe can yield horizontal spillover that will all go to India. EB2 May and June 2009 are very dense and need some push for PD to move over them. I hope we get the numbers to eat these 2 months and more 🤣