EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Its most likely reliable. Do yo think its on the higher side ?

Think about the number of H1Bs that get approved each year. Most go to Indians and there are about 85k each year. EB2I PDs have not moved beyond 2010. So over 7 years a pile up of 217k is totally possible assuming 30k each year. I surely think there are at least more than 30k Indians among the 85k H1B that get approved each year.

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Do you think these are PERM counts? How does DOS have these numbers unless reported by USCIS ? and How does USCIS know these numbers unless people file their 485's?

USCIS has exact number only until May 2010 for EB2-I.

I think these numbers are total number of EB2 green cards approved until May 2018 for all previous years until YTD.

I am trying to find our source of these numbers.

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Originally Posted by march1612

Do you think these are PERM counts? How does DOS have these numbers unless reported by USCIS ? and How does USCIS know these numbers unless people file their 485's?

USCIS has exact number only until May 2010 for EB2-I.

I think these numbers are total number of EB2 green cards approved until May 2018 for all previous years until YTD.

I am trying to find our source of these numbers.

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This # is all immigrant petitions including I-140 ordered by priority date that occurs AFTER the May 2018 Visa bulletin. USCIS should have this count by priority date, shouldn't they?

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Originally Posted by lville

I think country cap is necessary or else there will tons of just Indians and Chinese people here migrating. The way it is structured is to balance out immigration. It affects us bcuz we have huge number flowing in from India and china. In reality if one looks from American perspective they only want talented individuals poring in and what other labor force that is needed to build this country. But bcuz of porous border and lax immigration control there's lot of ill-legals and tier 4 and tier 5 white collar workers from Indian and China coming in (Very few Tier 1 talent). We should just be happy there's a country like USA to go to. No other country on planet has this amount of opportunity for growth and prosperity available to immigrants (at least this was the case for many years, may be it has dried now).

Imagine if India was a growth hub and there was no per country limit and all we got was influx from Bangladesh/Pakistan instead of talent from other deserving countries.

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Your argument is flawed.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

All I can say is that Indians and Chinese are no more or no less worthy of coming to US than any other nationality. America is a land of equal opportunity, land of the free and home of the brave. And I truly believe that. The current country quotas start Immigrant experience on the wrong footing.

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Yes. I agree 140K EB visas should be based on talent not diversity. USA has historically disliked every immigrant community.. be it Italians, Irish, African Americans, Latinos, East/South Asians. Eventually they get accepted after second or third generation. You have to fight injustice and call it what it is.. an unjust law! Yes, you do want diversity. There are FB and lottery visas for that, which are not based on TALENT!

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Originally Posted by almost

Gurus,
My PD is May 1 2009 and i received the below email from USCIS:
"
There has been a recent processing action taken on your case.

Receipt Number: SRC179XXXXXX7

Application Type: I765, APPLICATION FOR EMPLOYMENT AUTHORIZATION

Your Case Status: Card/ Document Production

On February 22, 2017, the Post Office delivered your new card for Receipt Number SRC179XXXXXX7, to the address that you gave us. The tracking number assigned is UNAVAILABLE.
"
Same email was received for the Mrs' application as well.

Now, this was already sent last year when the EAD was renewed last and card sent out, so i imagine there is some sort of activity on the file now. My question is, has anyone else encountered anything like this and any other insight anyone may have.
Thanks in advance

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Don't worry about it, I also got similar email and text alert also. I have got one similar last year also..I think every time they tweak the code and test their system it triggers random emails and alerts.

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Originally Posted by montyp80

Veterans on the forum, how reliable are these numbers (directly from the horse's mouth)

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...r_May_2018.PDF

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This basically means that CO's oft repeated 'Unable to gauge the Demand' is bullshit. We know how many Pending AOS applications are in the pipeline and we know how many are outside the pipeline. We don't have to be rocket scientists to figure out that EB3I PD needs to be ahead of EB2I PD. Hopefully that is what we will see in the next bulletin.

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Originally Posted by march1612

Do you think these are PERM counts? How does DOS have these numbers unless reported by USCIS ? and How does USCIS know these numbers unless people file their 485's?

USCIS has exact number only until May 2010 for EB2-I.

I think these numbers are total number of EB2 green cards approved until May 2018 for all previous years until YTD.

I am trying to find our source of these numbers.

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The details clearly state that its the sum of pending I140 / I526 / I360. For EB2I most applications are coming from an approved I-140.

The only thing I am not sure about is whether they are counting the number twice for applicants that might have ported from EB3I to EB2I. I am just surprised to see north of 50k applicants pending for EB3I and that makes me think that may be they are counting the porters twice (once against EB3 and once against EB2).

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

The details clearly state that its the sum of pending I140 / I526 / I360. For EB2I most applications are coming from an approved I-140.

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Thanks, This data clearly gives CO enough visibility of the demand available, all that he needs to figure out is unused numbers to move EB2 and EB3. I really do not understand why CO keeps saying he does not have visibility in identifying the demand and takes a conservative approach in moving the dates.

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

The details clearly state that its the sum of pending I140 / I526 / I360. For EB2I most applications are coming from an approved I-140.

The only thing I am not sure about is whether they are counting the number twice for applicants that might have ported from EB3I to EB2I. I am just surprised to see north of 50k applicants pending for EB3I and that makes me think that may be they are counting the porters twice (once against EB3 and once against EB2).

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I agree with you, I don't think they have a mechanism of knowing how many people have both EB2 and EB3 Approvals. So, my guess would be at least half of EB3 would be having EB2 Approval also.

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Originally Posted by march1612

Thanks, This data clearly gives CO enough visibility of the demand available, all that he needs to figure out is unused numbers to move EB2 and EB3. I really do not understand why CO keeps saying he does not have visibility in identifying the demand and takes a conservative approach in moving the dates.

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This information is the total demand till 2018. If you average it only for primaries we average to 5000 for EB3 India (Almost 11 years from July 2007 - April 2018). However for Eb2 I average jumps to little around 30 K for each year (May 2010 - April 2018). They have averaged the dependents to 1 for the year 2016 for EB2.


However the real fact would EB3 - I would be less than 3000 primaries for 2008-2009-2010 if we compare the perm data for those years along with EB2 I approvals till last month

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Originally Posted by montyp80

Veterans on the forum, how reliable are these numbers (directly from the horse's mouth)

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...r_May_2018.PDF

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If there are total 306K Primary Applicants, then there will be at least another 306K Dependents per the report. So, that is a total of 612K Applicants from India against a quota of 8400 Per Annum. Theoretically, it would take about 72 years for the last person to get GC!! Even assuming an SO of 10K every single year, it would still take 33 years to clear ALL the Indians!!!

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Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

This basically means that CO's oft repeated 'Unable to gauge the Demand' is bullshit. We know how many Pending AOS applications are in the pipeline and we know how many are outside the pipeline. We don't have to be rocket scientists to figure out that EB3I PD needs to be ahead of EB2I PD. Hopefully that is what we will see in the next bulletin.

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Absolutely - Anyway to me, there has never been an ambiguity about CO's (or Admin's) intentions. It does not hurt them to be conservative and allot more visas. They don't because the Admin just doesn't want to. The entrepreneur rule is being rescinded - it was so harmless. Also plans to derail H4 EAD are delayed but being worked upon.

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Its most likely reliable. Do yo think its on the higher side ?

Think about the number of H1Bs that get approved each year. Most go to Indians and there are about 85k each year. EB2I PDs have not moved beyond 2010. So over 7 years a pile up of 217k is totally possible assuming 30k each year. I surely think there are at least more than 30k Indians among the 85k H1B that get approved each year.

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These numbers are very low, specially EB3I, at one point I read reputed lawyer saying there are more than 250,000 people waiting in EB3I only.

What's mind boggling is there are onnly 60k (say 150k including dependents) primary applicants waiting in que as of today, and still EB3 is moving so slow!!!

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Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

If there are total 306K Primary Applicants, then there will be at least another 306K Dependents per the report. So, that is a total of 612K Applicants from India against a quota of 8400 Per Annum. Theoretically, it would take about 72 years for the last person to get GC!! Even assuming an SO of 10K every single year, it would still take 33 years to clear ALL the Indians!!!

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Dear, you are making the same assumption lot of organizations are doing to trick the gullible Indians in the employment queue.

EB2 - 216 K primaries 8 years. (A lot of them duplicates. It can be anywhere between 30-40%)

Eb3 -55 K primaries 11 years. (A lot of them are porters in 2009)

Absolute low demand in EB3-ROW and pretty low demand in EB2-ROW. Aggressive admin immigrant policies repudiating for new immigrants from ROW, which in turn helping Indian back loggers.

I had some documents which showed from PERM list that we have about 3000 primaries in EB3 India for 2009 and 2010. If the anticipated demand is low for 2008, then EB3 moves to 2010 end within a year. Similar to the 3 year movement we had from June 2017 to June 2018.

Lot of EB2 filers who had ported may use their original EB3 approval to do AOS. So from 2019 EB3 India will move forward with 8 year delay and EB2 India will move forward with 9 year delay.

The 33 year, 72 year stories is not the way these things work.

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Originally Posted by gten20

Your argument is flawed.

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When you go shopping, do you buy from a store that has the most competitive prices? Most talent needed today is in IT or areas that use a lot of IT. India and China have the human reaources to supply that demand.

The consumer economy of the US has most basic things coming from China. What about that? Should we have a cap on that to be fair to other countries?

Employment based immigration was not setup to ensure diversity: it was there to import talent that is needed. However, family-based immigration is completely different. Diversity makes more sense there.

Here is the flaw in your reasoning: The Indians and Chinese are already here! They are here on H1, EAD, etc. The point is should tax-paying, hard-working, skilled workforce be subject to second-class existence for years and years? When you approve the I-140, shouldn’t a fair system allow residency after 5 years at least? If you want to limit immigration, don’t even allow PERM unless the backlog is cleared; but you can’t have folks in limbo for 10 or 15 years. That’s no “immigration”: that is “servitude”.

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Originally Posted by nbk1976

When you go shopping, do you buy from a store that has the most competitive prices? Most talent needed today is in IT or areas that use a lot of IT. India and China have the human reaources to supply that demand.

The consumer economy of the US has most basic things coming from China. What about that? Should we have a cap on that to be fair to other countries?

Employment based immigration was not setup to ensure diversity: it was there to import talent that is needed. However, family-based immigration is completely different. Diversity makes more sense there.

Here is the flaw in your reasoning: The Indians and Chinese are already here! They are here on H1, EAD, etc. The point is should tax-paying, hard-working, skilled workforce be subject to second-class existence for years and years? When you approve the I-140, shouldn’t a fair system allow residency after 5 years at least? If you want to limit immigration, don’t even allow PERM unless the backlog is cleared; but you can’t have folks in limbo for 10 or 15 years. That’s no “immigration”: that is “servitude”.

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I think you replied to the wrong quote. The OP i replied to, was arguing for country cap. I am against country caps in EB which has caused this massive backlog.

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Originally Posted by gten20

I think you replied to the wrong quote. The OP i replied to, was arguing for country cap. I am against country caps in EB which has caused this massive backlog.

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Yes, I am sorry: I meant my reply to be for the OP, and I know you were against the ridiculous idea of Indians and Chinese explosion into the US and the absurdity of denying other countries from entering. Who said Indians and Chinese are the smartest? :)

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Originally Posted by AceMan

Dear, you are making the same assumption lot of organizations are doing to trick the gullible Indians in the employment queue.

EB2 - 216 K primaries 8 years. (A lot of them duplicates. It can be anywhere between 30-40%)

Eb3 -55 K primaries 11 years. (A lot of them are porters in 2009)

Absolute low demand in EB3-ROW and pretty low demand in EB2-ROW. Aggressive admin immigrant policies repudiating for new immigrants from ROW, which in turn helping Indian back loggers.

I had some documents which showed from PERM list that we have about 3000 primaries in EB3 India for 2009 and 2010. If the anticipated demand is low for 2008, then EB3 moves to 2010 end within a year. Similar to the 3 year movement we had from June 2017 to June 2018.

Lot of EB2 filers who had ported may use their original EB3 approval to do AOS. So from 2019 EB3 India will move forward with 8 year delay and EB2 India will move forward with 9 year delay.

The 33 year, 72 year stories is not the way these things work.

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Greatly appreciate your Analysis.
The rapid movement of EB3 will allow 2009 ,2010 having duplicates to file AOS in EB3. Wouldn't this help EB2 move faster and catch up with EB3 with same delay years ?

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Originally Posted by AceMan

Dear, you are making the same assumption lot of organizations are doing to trick the gullible Indians in the employment queue.

EB2 - 216 K primaries 8 years. (A lot of them duplicates. It can be anywhere between 30-40%)

Eb3 -55 K primaries 11 years. (A lot of them are porters in 2009)

Absolute low demand in EB3-ROW and pretty low demand in EB2-ROW. Aggressive admin immigrant policies repudiating for new immigrants from ROW, which in turn helping Indian back loggers.

I had some documents which showed from PERM list that we have about 3000 primaries in EB3 India for 2009 and 2010. If the anticipated demand is low for 2008, then EB3 moves to 2010 end within a year. Similar to the 3 year movement we had from June 2017 to June 2018.

Lot of EB2 filers who had ported may use their original EB3 approval to do AOS. So from 2019 EB3 India will move forward with 8 year delay and EB2 India will move forward with 9 year delay.

The 33 year, 72 year stories is not the way these things work.

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Thanks Aceman.

1.) What prevents EB2C from porting to EB3C? Why will it be any different for India?

2.) Folks in EB2I who already filed would need interviews if they port. How much of a deterrent will this be.

Regards

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Originally Posted by Immigrant

Thanks Aceman.

1.) What prevents EB2C from porting to EB3C? Why will it be any different for India?

2.) Folks in EB2I who already filed would need interviews if they port. How much of a deterrent will this be.

Regards

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What we are forgetting is these are EB visa's and has to be sponsored by employers. There is nothing stopping you from downward porting if you are working with some mom and pop consulting firms.

Now for clarity I have to explain what porting is from EB3-EB2. It is basically a new petition applying for a new labor, new I-140 (attaching the priority date of the previous petition). So basically the employee can have 2 active petitions in the above scenario. Since this is for future employment, an employee can also have multiple petitions with multiple employers at this stage as well.


Downward porting in the same company from EB2-3. The employee already has an approved labor for EB2 which is a higher skill. So it seems the employer can file for EB3 for the same employee.

However there is a catch according to a corporate lawyer I had interacted with. The offered salary for Eb3 can be considerably less than EB2. So this can result in an unexpected consequence of getting the GC faster with a lower salary :-). This is even applicable for the porting too. If you had already ported and used EB3 to file AOS, the employer is required to pay the employee the salary specified in that petition. It depends on individual employers to enforce it though.

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Originally Posted by march1612

Greatly appreciate your Analysis.
The rapid movement of EB3 will allow 2009 ,2010 having duplicates to file AOS in EB3. Wouldn't this help EB2 move faster and catch up with EB3 with same delay years ?

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Eb3 and EB2 India will go hand in hand for a while, may be till first quarter end of 19. Then it has to be EB3 all the way. The numbers don't lie.

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Originally Posted by AceMan

Dear, you are making the same assumption lot of organizations are doing to trick the gullible Indians in the employment queue.

EB2 - 216 K primaries 8 years. (A lot of them duplicates. It can be anywhere between 30-40%)

Eb3 -55 K primaries 11 years. (A lot of them are porters in 2009)

Absolute low demand in EB3-ROW and pretty low demand in EB2-ROW. Aggressive admin immigrant policies repudiating for new immigrants from ROW, which in turn helping Indian back loggers.

I had some documents which showed from PERM list that we have about 3000 primaries in EB3 India for 2009 and 2010. If the anticipated demand is low for 2008, then EB3 moves to 2010 end within a year. Similar to the 3 year movement we had from June 2017 to June 2018.

Lot of EB2 filers who had ported may use their original EB3 approval to do AOS. So from 2019 EB3 India will move forward with 8 year delay and EB2 India will move forward with 9 year delay.

The 33 year, 72 year stories is not the way these things work.

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You are talking about hypothetical best case scenarios based on guess work, which could very well turn out to be true. But in this era, it is hyperbole rather than hypothesis that is ruling the roost.

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Originally Posted by AceMan

What we are forgetting is these are EB visa's and has to be sponsored by employers. There is nothing stopping you from downward porting if you are working with some mom and pop consulting firms.

Now for clarity I have to explain what porting is from EB3-EB2. It is basically a new petition applying for a new labor, new I-140 (attaching the priority date of the previous petition). So basically the employee can have 2 active petitions in the above scenario. Since this is for future employment, an employee can also have multiple petitions with multiple employers at this stage as well.


Downward porting in the same company from EB2-3. The employee already has an approved labor for EB2 which is a higher skill. So it seems the employer can file for EB3 for the same employee.

However there is a catch according to a corporate lawyer I had interacted with. The offered salary for Eb3 can be considerably less than EB2. So this can result in an unexpected consequence of getting the GC faster with a lower salary :-). This is even applicable for the porting too. If you had already ported and used EB3 to file AOS, the employer is required to pay the employee the salary specified in that petition. It depends on individual employers to enforce it though.

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Sounds like advantage desi basement and mom/pop shops again! They always seem to find a way to be relevant :rolleyes:

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Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

You are talking about hypothetical best case scenarios based on guess work, which could very well turn out to be true. But in this era, it is hyperbole rather than hypothesis that is ruling the roost.

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These are hypothesis, the scenarios are mean possibilities and not necessarily the absolute best case. The guess work as you call, I believe is ignoring the current Admin's aggressive anti-immigrant policy.

Let us look at the reality from present. Every year we get 85K people in H1 minimum. The recent data shows we get about 7-8% people in L1A's going for EB1. We have 140 K GC available. The system is more or less designed to work efficiently when it was designed.

The 70 year story was the real hyperbole propagated by some groups who presented had great influence with the previous admin. It was just used to send cat among the Indian Immigrant pigeons.

So the best thing we can do, is we can be honest to the people who are following us. I have a Feb 2011 PD, which in the best case can be current within next 3 months, the average case within 1-2 years and worst case 3 years and above.

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Originally Posted by AceMan

The 70 year story was the real hyperbole propagated by some groups who presented had great influence with the previous admin. It was just used to send cat among the Indian Immigrant pigeons. .

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Looks like you're out of touch with reality. People are spending 11-12 years of their prime waiting for GC. Mine is March 2010 and I have EAD and I might get GC in 2-5 years...how the heck is that acceptable.

My colleague from brazil had same PD (we joined same company/same month); he's a US citizen since 1.5 -2 years. Your statement is nonsense. Let's not turn this forum into trackitt.

When I ask my friends with PD 2013 EB2 on when they think they will get GC.....they don't have an answer..so yes if there is NO spillover, the wait of 70 years is simple math. How can you depend on a variable to predict something for sure?