Originally Posted by
Pedro Gonzales
Jagan, I promised a more detailed response but I'd not anticipated how busy you've been today, so it's taken me a while.
I've responded to each of your posts below, but I'm going to explain how I think of the process. I expect you already know this but i'm spelling it out to avoid confusion.
a) Whenever dates move, EB3 to EB2 porting is composed of pent up demand component (your type 1 porters who have moved jobs, have interfiled, are preadjudicated and are ready for a visa number, or your type 2 porters who have filed the new PERM, new I140 and are ready with their EB2 I485), and if the dates stay steady, there is an organic demand component generated each month (people with EB3 PDs before the EB2 current date that have completed an interfile application or have a new I140 approved).
b) The path forward for EB2 in the current environment is likely to be one where the dates move every Q4 and then retrogress the following Q1 and stay steady so that the organic demand generated is fulfilled by the 250 regular visa numbers available to EB2I each month pre spillover. Then in Q4 spillover comes in which will allow dates to move sufficiently forward to meet the existing EB2 demand and the pent up EB3 porting demand until that date. Your type 2 porters (who have never filed an I485 application) will take some time to receive their green cards, and will likely not get it because dates will retrogress before then. So they may not be incorporated in COs calculations when he moves the dates forward (Because he doesn't want to waste visa numbers since they won't be processed in time). However, they will be noted in the demand data as soon as their applications are preadjudicated so they will be known for the following year's spill over. This is what has happened in FY2013.
I think your assumption is that dates will retrogress significantly in Q12014 and then move in Aug 2014 to Oct 2008 by which time demand of 12K will materialize before Oct 1 2008. Since there is currently 4.5k of inventory between June 15 and Oct 1 2008 and since you are assuming 2K unfufilled demand pre Jun 15th (which excludes your type 2 porting for the reasons i mentioned above), you are assuming unfulfilled porting demand before retrogression and pent up new porting demand will be 5.5k in total. Also, I guess this 12K will only use spill over and not the regular 3K EB2I supply?
The 700 per month that would have ported had the EB2I PD always been at June 2008 are mostly incorporated in CO's calculations when he moved the dates to June 15, 2008. Only the 5K that you think have already ported post Aug 2007 are not, and this ties to the 5.5K figure i calculated above. I think it is high, but it is internally consistent.
Two things happened, a) he tried out quarterly spillover which came to bite him on his backside as EB2Row ran out of visa numbers and had a cut off date imposed and b) he wanted to build an inventory because if he waited until the end of the year he would have had insufficient EB2I applications in the queue to use up all the spill over.
You believe porting is going to be a steady stream every month until all EB3I applicants either receive their GCs from EB3 supply or port to EB2. I disagree. I think most people who want to and can port before June 2008 will have already ported by Sep 2008 (or be preadjudicated and incorporated in the demand data). The incremental organic porters will be far fewer than 300 pre Sep 2004 . I dont have any calculations at the moment, but my gut says the EB2 dates will retrogress to somewhere in mid 2007.
And surely my knowledge of the process can't come across as being so rudimentary as you imply above.
1) Your type 1 porters will not be available in the inventory. When they interfile and if their dates are current they will receive their green cards immediately. The organic type 1 porters will be met through the monthly visa numbers available, and the pent up type 1 porters just use up visa numbers from the spill over and get their GCs.
2) 2K of type 1 porters in addition to the 3K regular EB2I supply (which will also be used by type 1 porters), would indicate 5K of porting just pre Aug 2007 which is around what we're assuming for FY2013. You have to be pretty pessimistic to think that's going to stay the same for the same period (pre Aug 2007). PErhaps your 2K is not in addition to the 3K regular EB2 availability?
3) Of the trackitt numbers you pulled, the first 97 will have an EB3 I485 so they'll get their green cards in August 2013. CO has a very good idea of their numbers because he waited 12 days to release the VB.
4) The other 75 (so about 1.2k after applying the 6% figure) are a part of the 2K that you expect not to get their GCs before the numbers retrogress.
5) You wanted to research trackitt to answer how many type 2 porters with PDs before OCt 2008 would generate pent up demand before Aug 2014. The position of people on this forum that have researched the subject is that there are fewer EB3Is with 2008PDs than with 2007PDs so then the total porting figure pre Oct 2008 would be significantly < 6K (which is the expectation for 2013). I don't think you have looked into that. I haven't either.
If he held the dates constant and more applications are processed than he can give monthly 250 visa numbers to, he will have to retrogress the dates, or use quarterly spill over to meet the demand. He can't just do nothing.
As Spec pointed out, CO has sufficient EB2I inventory. He will also have plenty of understanding of porting demand by then based on this summer's applications, so he can make a pretty good educated guess about how far to move dates in August 2014.
That's a long post but i wanted to address all of your points.