Bam bam bholeeeeeeeeee... ho gaye GC waleeeeeeeeeeee.... congrats dude... hang around... dont leave...we need ur experience...Quote:
Originally Posted by BamBam
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Bam bam bholeeeeeeeeee... ho gaye GC waleeeeeeeeeeee.... congrats dude... hang around... dont leave...we need ur experience...Quote:
Originally Posted by BamBam
Congrats bam bam and Amen to that.:)Quote:
Originally Posted by BamBam
Friends... I just noticed...200 pages of this incredible thread today. WOW !
A big thank you to the FAB 4 : Q,V, S, T and others. Also, a big thank you to the incredible friends I have made here :)
bieber,Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
I think everyone uses different assumptions. On the ones I gave above, the figures of I-485 for each PD year were:
2007 still to file - 12,559
2008 - 23,359
2009 - 16,130
2010 - 16,134 (assumed that 5,000 PERM were Porting for previous PDs, although I haven't added those back anywhere - I probably should have done, since this leads to an underestimate)
2011 onwards - 16,000
On those assumptions, the total PERM number pretty much became the EB2 I-485 number, due to a quirk in the % used.
Please understand, the table is just a quick and dirty attempt to understand the timelines - don't over analyze it! For instance, it doesn't try to include any porting numbers.
I can plug in a different set of assumptions if you provide them:
i) PERM to I-140 approval rate (including any primary I-485 denial rate) i.e. 80% if you think 20% of PERM never make it to the primary's I-485 approval)
ii) No of I-485 per I-140 e.g. 2.1
iii) % EB2 e.g, 60%
Pdmar08,Quote:
Originally Posted by Pdmar08
I thought you were referring to Kevin Pietersen for a moment.
Bloody fine knock! (as the English might say)
Can the Little Master respond?
leo07,Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
Our intention is to figure out how USCIS is distributing EB-VISAs based on the demand/completions and other factors. We may not be able to get exact picture but may get close to reality.
This way we can predict future allocations based on various data sources available now, instead of guessing.
EB1 Denials: Most of the EB1ROWMP denials will apply, if not already, in EB2. (In our calculations we are already accounting thins number based on PERM data.)
Again the main intent is not just for the month/quarter/year spillover calculations but, the overall picture so that it will be easy for us to help our future EB community.
Spec, thanks :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I will ask more questions later eventhough I remember your ealier calculation for EB2IC for CY2007 is 16k, could you please verify if it still stands true (not including any of the inventory)
bieber,Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
Close enough.
Using those assumptions for both I & C it comes out as 15,471. China's conversion rate is a little better, so the figure for both combined is a bit over 16k.
I'm away for a few days starting tomorrow, so no answers over the weekend.
To me this statement translates to :July 15th 2007 to August 1st 2007 movement in September VB.Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
fwiw, unlike TeddyK, Spec, Q, Veni and few others, I have built-in bias, no hiding there:)
btw, I just noticed we reached 200 pages:)
Hi Guys, I have been following this thread for a while. Thanks for all the great work people are doing here. Like many others, I was hoping for significant movement in the Aug VB but was disappointed. I've been working for my current employer for over 5 1/2 years now and would really like a change. But my PD is April 4 2008. I have a couple of questions for the forum:
- What are the chances of my PD becoming current next year?
- How long will it take for a new employer to start a new GC and get me to the same stage by the time my PD is current?
- This part is a little subjective, but if you were me would you stick with the same employer or move?
Thanks in advance for your valuable comments.
Forgot to mention that my GC is filed under EB2 India with a PD of 04/04/2008.
Quote:
Originally Posted by yesman
Yesman welcome to the forum.In general people are being pointed to read the whole thread to improve their own understanding and reduce their anxiety.However let me offer my thoughts ,do take them with a pinch of salt.They are nowhere close to the insight the fab4 or gang of 4 ( too much deficit news on my mind :) ) might be able to provide.
1.Depending on movements in Sep and Oct bulletin your PD has a very good chance of becoming current by the later half of next year ( May 2012) .If an miracle happens and CO decides to fill pipeline it could be as soon as Jan 2012 or Dec 2011 .I would not bet the farm on it being before that.
2.New employer will usually take six months to get the advertisements done for the LC stage and depending on the approval times for PERM which are ranging from two months to 4 months you might be back in line by Oct 2012 if you change your job right now and no queries actually follow through on the recapture of PD.
3.I would atleast stick untill Oct VB to notice movement to make an decision..
P.S By the way my PD is in Nov 2007 and am stuck in a similar quandry...though being borderline am more confused and pulled in both directions .Heart says CO will fill the pipeline by Oct.Mind firmly says ...no way too good to be true and gates will close by August.
:) I noticed some fan posts for LOTR..here goes..Sep VB is the gates of Mordor for me.....
Boromir: One does not simply walk past the Sep VB . Its black gates are guarded by the bumbling staff of the mumbai consulate. There is evil there that does not print even one date properly . The great eye (CO) is ever watchful. It is a barren excel sheet , riddled with mistypes, html errors, and procedural delays. Many a man and woman had to go to the ER unable to bear this torture. Not with ten thousand men could you do this. It is folly.
Quote:
Originally Posted by yesman
Veni001, Thanks for the explanation!
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
gcseeker, Thanks for providing your take on my situation. The pain of going through this process with another employer is certainly something I'm not looking forward to. Although, my career could certainly use the change. Oct 2012 seems like it would be cutting it too close plus the fear of additional queries is always there. I decided to ask just so that that I can get different perspectives on the situation.
OTOH, I'm not sure when we get over all pre-adjudicated cases, if my PD would become current as part of next year's overflow (if it's the same amount as this year). I've read predictions where they say it'll move to Q1 2008 as part of next year's overflow. That's cutting it too close for me and dangerously close to slipping to 2013.
Your case seems more of no brainer though. I know you didn't ask for my opinion, but here it is anyway.. If I were you, I'd wait :) Good luck with your GC!
Quote:
Originally Posted by gcseeker
Are you sure? It made me check.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I am happy to acknowledge that "Sunny" may have been the original Master, although I have never heard him referred to in that way. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunil_Gavaskar
According to Wikipedia and many other searches, ST is the "Little Master" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sachin_Tendulkar and that is what I have known him as for most of his career.
Anyway, the match is all set up for him to produce another great innings, weather permitting of course.
PS I've seen both play - which probably shows my age.
Tempted to reply as similar case here with 6 years in same company with PD Jan 2008.Quote:
Originally Posted by yesman
Stick with it and see it through whatever it takes as it is just a year.
I expect my PD to be current around Feb 2012.
Hi All,
Lets say the Sep Bulletin moves the cutoff date to AUG 1st . Then when the new Fiscal Year starts from Oct Bulletin aren't the Dates supposed to move based on monthly allocation ?? (How ever small that allocation might be)..
I checked the last year's bulletins from Oct 2010 to May 2011 and the dates only moved in May's bulletin. I thought it's because of so much backlog. This time the backlog is not what we had in 2010..
Could some one pls respond why the Dates only moved in May or ( in third or last quarter as it did in the prior years..)
Thanks..
Quote:
Originally Posted by gcseeker
LoL Spec you are letting your guard fall!! Disclosing the age and all :)
Well you are not alone. Me too have seen India - England matches w Gavaskar, Vishwanaath on Indian side and Tony Greg, Chapel bros, Geoffrey Boycott (OMG!). Albeit I was in my single digits then. But still that doesn;t make me look very young does it?
Anyway .... so to my recollection Gavaskar is original little master. I think Tendlya is Little Champ not Master. People in Mumbai consider him GOD. But that's another matter ;) I just loved him when he debuted against Pakistan. Oh poor little Abdul Qadir almost came to tears. He plays well even today but I think its better he retire today when he is still doing good. Otherwise its painful to watch once great players struggling to keep up.
My personal opinion .... Sachin Fans dont jump on me. I am his fan too.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
mars76,Quote:
Originally Posted by mars76
The generally accepted theory is that there were enough Porting cases with earlier PDs to consume the 250 or so visas available every month at the beginning of the year.
The dates only moved in May because it was announced that EB1 would provide at least 12k visas, otherwise they could not have moved until July.
At the beginning of FY2012, as well as any Porting cases, there are also likely to be an increasing number of PWMB and derivative cases becoming ready for adjudication.
I hope that at least partly answers your question.
I would put chances of you being current and getting EAD as 90% for next year. I would put chances of you getting green card as 50% next year. This if you stick with same job.Quote:
Originally Posted by yesman
When you join a new employer, most employers start GC after a year, except if it's a consulting company or a small company with less strict rules, or if during hiring, you get to convince them about your situation, sometimes even set in stone place bulge. Suppose you manage to convince to start after six months, they would need to go for a recruiting effort and advertising campaign for the GC job position. Then they would file PERM labor. I am assuming this in total will take 6 months. So suppose you leave in September 2011, then in September 2012 you would have an approved PERM. Now if in September 2012, your date, April 2008, is current, which is a 50-50 chance as per me (it would be 90% few months earlier in 2012 assuming CO is doing some BTM), you can file 140 and 485 concurrently, or just file 140. Now, suppose your 140 takes 4 months to approve, then in January 2013, at which time around (few months after), I am putting 90% chance you would be current (again), and could get 485 approved or be able to file. If you had filed 485 concurrently, you would get GC in late 2012, early 2013, if not, then late mid 2013.
If staying with current employer is making your life miserable, and if you are going to get new job in a non consulting company, which shall be able to prove ability to pay and will do a bonafide recruiting campaign, then leave. Else just stick around and get done with it. One more year, you should get EAD.
ps: LOTR quote to inspire: “The quest stands upon the edge of a knife. Stray but a little and it will fail. But hope remains, if friends stay true.”
yesman it depends on how terrible your situation is. I would wait till October to see if BTM happens (refer first page of thread). If it doesn't then the only time it will reach April 2008 will be May 2012 onwards. Once you become current then you can switch jobs only 6 months after filing 485. So that a total of 1 yr from Oct 2011.
Your new employer may be able to process everything within 1 yr. But that's a risk. So its your call. ..how unhappy you are today vs r you willing to take risk w new employer. If everything goes fine ... timeline wise I don't think you will lose if you change jobs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by yesman
While everyone is talking about 200th page on this thread, another important record passed by. donvar's post was #5000 and it happened on the 200th page. (This is significant in similar ways to Fletcher's 100th test as a coach in the 2000th International test match, which is a 100th test match between eng & India where there is an anticipation of Sachin scoring a 100th 100 in which Kevin got a 200 .....who in the world keeps track of coach's number of matches??)Quote:
Originally Posted by donvar
Even I remember Little master to be SG.
Happy to see Spec getting involved in discussions(Indian cricket) other than crunching #'s. And because of this I'm guessing he's not Sangiano(whose profile says UK) ;)
Sep VB :)
One VB to rule them all, One VB to find them,
One VB to bring them all and in the darkness bind them
Quote:
Originally Posted by gcseeker
Q and S.... Sachin is more popularly called S master blaster by commentators....Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
2 more weeks to go. Does anyone know if historically DOS puts in demand data before Sep VB.
Nishant bhai.... You want a trailer before the movie release then hmm...Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Interesting Doc:
http://icert.doleta.gov/includes/mod...et_6_27_11.pdf
That is a great find, familyguy!Quote:
Originally Posted by familyguy
From that document, "Note there has been a 63% increase in cases filed FY 2011 over cases filed in FY 2010"
Oh boy! Not good, not good!
May be 50% of the filling are porting folks from EB3 to EB2......Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
familyguy,Quote:
Originally Posted by familyguy
Good find.
Also one has to remember, FY 2010 was at bottom of recession. All indications to me are FY 2012 will be lucky to get 20k SO. That wud be the goal to reach.
My calculations validate this, see below...Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
We don't know for sure...Quote:
Originally Posted by nnnnn123
FY2010 Receipts (cases filed in FY2010 only)Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
From FY2010 PERM data
FY2010 IC approvals = 10,173
FY2010 ROWMP approvals = 7,877
FY2010 Denials/Withdrawn= 2,040
From FY2011(Q1+Q2) PERM data
FY2010 IC approvals = 13,213
FY2010 ROWMP approvals = 9,220
FY2010 Denials/Withdrawn= 477
From above data FY2010 PERM receipts = ~ 43K (or ~28K for first 8 months of FY2010)
From the FY2011 PERM document Oct'10-May'11 Receipts = ~45K (this validates 63% increase in first 8 months of FY2011 )
PERM applications proced in April'11-May'11
Oct'10-May'11 Receipts = ~45K
FY2011(Q1+Q2) approvals = 7.1K (only cases filed in FY2011)
FY2011(Q1+Q2) Denials = 0.4K (only cases filed in FY2011)
Above document shows both audits and review dates are in FY2011, which means 73% of the 22,000 pending PERM should be from FY2011 only. Since FY2009 saw the bottom, most of the appeals (24%) should also from FY 2011.
Let's take 85% of the pending PERM cases (=~19K) are from FY2011.
PERM processed in April'11-May'11 = 45K-7.1K-0.4k-19K = 18.5K
From FY2011(Q1+Q2) PERM data Approval to Denial ratio is 81:19
April'11-May'11 PERM approvals = 15K (from USCIS dashboard i140 receipts(include EB1&EB2NIW) are ~14K for the same period)
If we add the delay (~1 month) from PERM approval time to i140 receipt, then the delta between PERM approvals and i140 receipts is ~2.4K, which mean EB1 140 receipts for April & May are at the same level as Q1&Q2
First of all I would like to congratulate everyone who have their PD current and to those as well who might become current in the sept bulletin to bring curtains on this visa year. I must say this year was great for all those who are from EB2IC and expecting such Spill over in the coming years will be stupid. Here are my 2 cents
1. I see very little help from EB2row for the visa year 2012 as i feel the economy will get better and more EB2row applicants will come. Do not underestimate people from pak , bangladesh etc... This year we got a few thousand from this category.
2. EB1 I feel like next year we should see some spillover but not a lot. Even though there is a backlog and and a potential to receive new cases one cannot get the required expertise in one year. I am very hopeful that USCIS will review all EB1 cases strictly and clear only the ones who are qualified. we might not get 12K but 6-8K is possible.
3. EB4-5 will help EB2IC for sure.
4. EB2C will get even less I guess but not sure.
5. Family based I have no clue. Can anyone tell me why we got spillover last year and not this year and is there is any for next year?
Please feel free to critique or comment. Anyways I have a PD of Feb 2008 and I just like others want to move on but am stuck.
druvraj,Quote:
Originally Posted by druvraj
Agree we may not get similar to this year's SOFAD moving forward, but you never now!
Also looking at history and I-360 trend, i don't think there will be any spillover from EB4
Any prior year unused VISAs from FB will spillover to current year EB and viceversa. Based Q1+Q2 FB usage by USCIS, i don't think there will be any FB spillover next year!
Veni,Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
In that case I feel like we might get only 8-10K of spill over along with 2.8K of regular quota. This effectively means that we might reach Jan 1 2008 at the most if no BTM happens.
Q, yes, I agree.
Mr.CO never told people accurate information in the past. Also he changes his mind quickly.
I would not put too much trust into the rumors on mitbbs. We have to use our own judgement. Let's see what will happen in the next VB.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
In an old post 4538, I had done some simple calculation from just PERM data compiled in the facts and data section by the gurus.Quote:
Originally Posted by druvraj
I am re-pasting some of it here, but that will show you that with just 8-10k, plus 2.8, say 12.8k, porting will eat away half. and remaining 7k will not even cross 2007. My figures are bit higher, per others, but still, just 10k will not be good to cross 2007.
Just based on simple PERM data. I adjusted the rate of PERM to 485 to 80% ( I had earlier thought 80% instead of 90% but thought maybe I am being too negative, but after being pointed out the Spec’s projection model and qblogfan’s calculation, I think 80% is good enough), and also downed the dependent to 2.04 from 2.2.
Upto End of month year (cumulative) -- PERMs -- EB2 split -- 80% factor -- 2.04 dependant factor and hence the demand generated for movement until this end of month date
August 2007 -- 5,248 -- 3,411 -- 2,729 -- 5,567
September 2007 -- 7,541 -- 4,902 -- 3,922 -- 8,001
October 2007 -- 10,167 -- 6,608 -- 5,286 -- 10,784
November 2007 -- 12,600 -- 8,190 -- 6,552 -- 13,366
December 2007 -- 14,846 -- 9,650 -- 7,720 -- 15,748
BTM upto Jan 1st, 2008 would yield 15,748 demand. For below 2008, I am assuming 70:30 split for EB2
January 2008 -- 17,743 -- 11,678 -- 9,342 -- 19,058
February 2008 -- 20,473 -- 13,589 -- 10,871 -- 22,177
March 2008 -- 22,716 -- 15,159 -- 12,127 -- 24,739
April 15th 2008 -- 24,072 -- 16,109 -- 12,887 -- 26,289
April 30th 2008 -- 25,429 -- 17,058 -- 13,646 -- 27,839
May 2008 -- 27,939 -- 18,815 -- 15,052 -- 30,706
June 2008 -- 30,073 -- 20,309 -- 16,247 -- 33,143
BTM upto April 15th 2008 would yield 26k demand, and upto June 2008 33k demand.
Hence scenarios:
BTM to Jan 1st 2008: 15.5k + 6k porting = 21.5k demand
BTM to April 15th 2008: 26k + 6k porting = 32k demand
BTM to July 1st 2008: 33k + 6k porting = 39k demand
druvraj,Quote:
Originally Posted by druvraj
Based on the information we have to-date EB1 demand is really low(less than 12k in Q1+Q2) and EB2ROWMP usage is more or less the same as last year. With the increased efforts from USCIS EB5 may pick-up some new demand but not sure how long it is going to sustain.
So the key for future years SOFAD will be based on how EB1,EB2ROWMP and EB5 is going to behave!
For me, 11/2007, I think it's going to go down to the last ball of the over. btw, yesterday I won 3 dollars in the Mega Millions Lottery draw. seriously.
nishant,Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Good, you can buy three more tickets now! :)
I got $12, bought for $5. lost .. hahah. :oQuote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Sunil.