EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

Scion,
Congrats on beoming current!

I was in a similar situation with the Dec VB. I collected all my paperwork, filled forms, got my medicals done within a week, and sent them to the attorneys. I also made sure, that they will FedEx my app on Nov-30th and postponed my tickets to the first week in Dec. I got FedEx confirmation that my app has reached the lockbox, before I left. You can give a cushion of a few days between the receipt of your app and before you leave. Hopefully, I should not/will not have any problems on re-entry. Just keeping my fingers crossed.

I have my H1 stamping valid until late 2012 and can re-enter using that. You can follow a similar procedure only if you have a valid visa stamping before your re-entry (as you will not have your AP by then).

Hope this helps.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by scion78

Hi Guys, Firstly Congrats everyone who got current. I was super happy to see the news this morning that I am current. My PD is Nov 2008. I had a question for the Guru's. I am planning to travel to India from Dec 29th - Jan 29th 2012. Does this movement mean that I have to effectively cancel my trip all together? Or is there a way I can file and then leave or try to salvage some portion of my planned trip?

Thanks,

---

Again, sorry for posting in the wrong thread. My wife is in India and will be coming here end of Dec to file AOS. She has to go back again though. Your experience based answers will help me evaluate the options on when she can leave

How long after filing for I 485, can I expect FP notice?
How long after filing for I 485 can I expect AP ?
How long after filing for I 485 can I expect EAD ?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by feedmyback

Probably you are talking about this....

http://www.myprioritydate.com/

---

Yes i was. Thank You!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by RMS_V13

Again, sorry for posting in the wrong thread. My wife is in India and will be coming here end of Dec to file AOS. She has to go back again though. Your experience based answers will help me evaluate the options on when she can leave

How long after filing for I 485, can I expect FP notice?
How long after filing for I 485 can I expect AP ?
How long after filing for I 485 can I expect EAD ?

---

See nishants post #2545
- Receipts in 8-10 days after USCIS gets application
- Biometric appointment notice in 3-4 weeks after that
- EAD/AP card around 30 days after biometric appointment is done
- He says 60 days around after application receipted is good estimate for EAD/AP card
- GC he says before June 1st i.e. around 180 days after application gets in

For good or bad 140 date sticks and labor is forgotten IMHO.

So filing 485 shouldn't be a problem. I would file 485 and then try to correct 140 error - which clearly doesn't seem like a big deal.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by SaturnRing

Typo in PD - I 140 :(

I know this is the wrong thread, so will delete this message after I get a reply. Sorry!

Hi All,

I was gathering all the documents needed for I485 filing and noticed that in the copy of I140 I had with, we have a typo in the PD field , instead of Mar 26, 2008, it says May 26, 2008.

I checked the copy of labor petition and it clearly says the filing date is 03-26-2008.

Will this cause any delay in filing my 485 ? what will the lawyers do in such cases ? should I have to wait for my I140 to be corrected ?

---

Thanks for your quick reply Q

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Pdmar08

See nishants post #2545
- Receipts in 8-10 days after USCIS gets application
- Biometric appointment notice in 3-4 weeks after that
- EAD/AP card around 30 days after biometric appointment is done
- He says 60 days around after application receipted is good estimate for EAD/AP card
- GC he says before June 1st i.e. around 180 days after application gets in

---

Hi, would like to say that we are noticing folks getting EAD/AP in like 40 days too, before even FP is done. The above was normal timeline told to me by lawyer, but you may get lucky and get sooner. The new EAD/AP combo card per him is almost like GC and can hold digital information like biometrics.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by tnayar78

Can someone answer this, i will remove this post from this thread once it is answered, thanks in advance

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...5819#post15819

---

Don't worry about it too much.

I need advise from gurus or who have gone thro this before. I have my PD current in Jan'12 bulletin, and i am getting ready with my paper work to be able to apply first week of Jan (It's with Fargomen, so possible could go into second week as well). I need to go to india for some family thing around 23rd February to return around 18th March 2012, worst case i can stay week longer too. My I-797 valid until August 2014, but no stamping. Should i go for stamping to re-enter or will i be able to get my AP by then? or any other options that i can look at?

Thanks MySati. I am still trying to decide how many days should i postpone from 1/3/2011 to make sure I get the FedEx receipts and its safe to leave the country. I also have to get my H1-B stamping done while I am in India. I am wondering if it is better off for me to just postpone my travel until summer to be on the safer side. Thanks for the info!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by mysati

Scion,
Congrats on beoming current!

I was in a similar situation with the Dec VB. I collected all my paperwork, filled forms, got my medicals done within a week, and sent them to the attorneys. I also made sure, that they will FedEx my app on Nov-30th and postponed my tickets to the first week in Dec. I got FedEx confirmation that my app has reached the lockbox, before I left. You can give a cushion of a few days between the receipt of your app and before you leave. Hopefully, I should not/will not have any problems on re-entry. Just keeping my fingers crossed.

I have my H1 stamping valid until late 2012 and can re-enter using that. You can follow a similar procedure only if you have a valid visa stamping before your re-entry (as you will not have your AP by then).

Hope this helps.

---

My humble requests to people who are posting questions regarding 485 filings:
1. If your request is not super urgent (you do not need resolution/clarity in a matter of a day or two) - then please post in the appropriate thread and not on the Calculation and Prediction thread. Other threads also have very good traffic now.
2. Please don't post the same questions to Q's Forum, **, trackitt, Murthy and every other immigration forum. I am seeing the same questions appear on every forum. Good people everywhere are replying and there is a massive duplication of effort. Please post in your favorite forum and wait for a day or so for people to answer. If you are not satisfied then of course go ahead and post in other forums.
3. Before posting questions, please spend some time going through previous posts. I am seeing a lot of duplication in questions that should be avoided to keep the noise low.

I am not trying to discourage people asking questions - please do ask your questions - we are all in the same boat and we are all happy to help our fellow EB2/EB3 applicants - just trying to make the process a little more effective and efficient.

This does not explain the demand destruction and no way, it tells us what the demand destruction is for which category but I found it interesting, hence wanted to share it. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...w/11060839.cms.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by qesehmk

KD i am not sure i understood your question correctly. Eb1 EB2ROW "ALWAYS" take precendence over EB2IC. So yes they will have to be processed before EB2IC gets any extra visas. As per COs rationale behind moving dates - it is clear that he doesn't have a consistent rationale. If we he were to look at his own demand data ... he had more than enough left at the end of sep 2011 from 7% quota perspective. So he didn't need to move the date by a single month. Now he has moved it even beyond any possible SOFAD this year. So clearly he is using his discretion in moving the dates. So i wouldn't try to find any "legal" rationale or basis to his actions. He has to give us some cool-aid in each VB and we are drinking it. As long as the party goes on lets enjoy and file 485. As he himself said - someday it will have to come to end. Makes sense?

---

I wasn't coming from a data analysis angle. I was trying to build a logical angle of what to expect next. What kind of demand is approvable next, what demand is going to be built next, how these events will result in the fiscal year end that may not be as sweet as now.

Yes, we know that CO is not paying attention to country limits or following law to the T. I was trying to build a picture of the results from his current actions.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by sreddy

I need advise from gurus or who have gone thro this before. I have my PD current in Jan'12 bulletin, and i am getting ready with my paper work to be able to apply first week of Jan (It's with Fargomen, so possible could go into second week as well). I need to go to india for some family thing around 23rd February to return around 18th March 2012, worst case i can stay week longer too. My I-797 valid until August 2014, but no stamping. Should i go for stamping to re-enter or will i be able to get my AP by then? or any other options that i can look at?

---

sreddy,
I wouldn't recommend travelling until EAD/AP in hand after applying for 485, unless you have a valid VISA stamp in the passport.

Even if you apply on Jan1st, chances of receiving AP by 2/23/12 are minimal. If you must travel before receiving EAD-AP then you have to get a non-immigrant VISA abroad to re-enter into US.

In any event please make sure that you will not miss your bio-metrics appointment.

Good Luck!

Folks, I have seen a lot of bashing in other forums over including certified-expired in our calculations of PERM data. No matter how it is explained to them that the calculation methodology is correct, and the lower demand is due to external factors like economy, they still bash the calculations. I am just so exasperated by it. Please do not fall for the flawed logic in other forums.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by nishant2200

Hi, would like to say that we are noticing folks getting EAD/AP in like 40 days too, before even FP is done. The above was normal timeline told to me by lawyer, but you may get lucky and get sooner. The new EAD/AP combo card per him is almost like GC and can hold digital information like biometrics.

---

Nishant,
you are 100% right, i was going to post what my lawyer told me yesterday but i was not clear, now it makes sense. He said that they do approve cases in 30 days but he also added that big movements they might slowdown.
His words "Often they approve current cases within a month or so, but given the big advances in the EB-2 category they may slow down given the high number of cases being filed/about to be filed. "
Hopefully we will file this week.

Congrats all :)

We should perhaps start talking about what is the potential post-07/07 EB2IC 485 density. We had assumed it to be 2500/month - which seems like is too high and bears revising downwards. The questions that we need to address:

1. What data points can help us get a better grip on the density estimates?

2. What is your estimate for post-07/07 density and what is your rationale?

Looking forward to a fact based discussion and analysis. Gurus - please get the ball rolling.

There is no point in getting upset. The more we are open for positive criticism the better it is for the immigrant community. The reason people have started questioning is when the outcome is bizarre from the projections. It's good people start questioning in the right spirit.

Having said, that I just checked the PERM case status in 2010 and found that mine says us just "Certified" and not "Certified Expired". So any reason why we are including "Certified Expired" as well. If you point me to right page that would be helpful.

Thanks.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kd2008

Folks, I have seen a lot of bashing in other forums over including certified-expired in our calculations of PERM data. No matter how it is explained to them that the calculation methodology is correct, and the lower demand is due to external factors like economy, they still bash the calculations. I am just so exasperated by it. Please do not fall for the flawed logic in other forums.

---

Congratulations to everyone who got current in Jan bulletin.
Glad I found such a wonderful forum, thanks to all the Gurus for the excellent work.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes

This does not explain the demand destruction and no way, it tells us what the demand destruction is for which category but I found it interesting, hence wanted to share it. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...w/11060839.cms.

---

I wonder If Indian economy is growing as per valuless (mouth piece of biased politicalparties) TOI paper economic times why the 1 US dollar is Rs.51 today? at the same time a year back this was only Rs.39?? Sorry for the offtopic.

kd i think we should keep doing what we r doing. success begets criticism. let others create their own theories . but unless backed by data and sound rationale and proved true at least indirectly they will remain only theories. i would nt pay much attn to them.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kd2008

Folks, I have seen a lot of bashing in other forums over including certified-expired in our calculations of PERM data. No matter how it is explained to them that the calculation methodology is correct, and the lower demand is due to external factors like economy, they still bash the calculations. I am just so exasperated by it. Please do not fall for the flawed logic in other forums.

---

hi gurus.,
my date is current now. and congrats to all the people who can apply in Jan.
What documents do i need to get from my wifes employer? She was on H4 and now on H1. She joined the company recently and her first payroll will run in January.
do i need to wait for her payslip i.e, may be 5-7th of Jan?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by asankaran

There is no point in getting upset. The more we are open for positive criticism the better it is for the immigrant community. The reason people have started questioning is when the outcome is bizarre from the projections. It's good people start questioning in the right spirit.

Having said, that I just checked the PERM case status in 2010 and found that mine says us just "Certified" and not "Certified Expired". So any reason why we are including "Certified Expired" as well. If you point me to right page that would be helpful.

Thanks.

---

This subject has been discussed extensively both here and on other fora.

I would guess the approval date for your PERM case was in the last 180 days of the FY concerned.

Equally people have reported that their PERM Certification shows as Certified-Expired, even though they have an approved I-140 based on that PERM. One such example can be found here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ified#post6313

The other point is how would DOL know whether an I-140 had been submitted to USCIS within the 180 days? They wouldn't.

I have previously analyzed the PERM data and, apart from a few outliers, all cases approved 180 days or less from the end of the FY are marked Certified and all cases approved more than 180 days from the end of the FY are marked Certified-Expired.

If Certified-Expired cases were not included, then only 180 days worth of data would be considered in the calculation. We would then have to believe that no-one who had their PERM approved in the first six months of the FY submitted an I-140 within 180 days. Further, we would have to believe that everybody who had their PERM approved in the last 180 days did submit an I-140 within 180 days. In fact that is impossible, since when the data was published, not all cases were 180 days old.

Bottom line - I am more than happy with evidence from multiple sources that Certified-Expired cases should be included in the total to base the calculation on. Clearly some would actually become Expired because no I-140 was submitted and this needs to be accounted for. However, it is beyond believe that this figure would be > 50%, which is what happens if Certified-Expired cased in the PERM data are excluded, the more so since PERM is a very time consuming process and expensive for the Employer.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Archer

hi gurus.,
my date is current now. and congrats to all the people who can apply in Jan.
What documents do i need to get from my wifes employer? She was on H4 and now on H1. She joined the company recently and her first payroll will run in January.
do i need to wait for her payslip i.e, may be 5-7th of Jan?

---

No employment related docs like paystubs or W2s if she is filing with you.
You will need here I797 or any other visa doc/approval notices to show continuous legal status. From my experience my wife was here on her BL1 before and the lawyer asked for the approved blanket petition too...had to struggle to get it.
Other than that the usual, passport, i94 marriage and birth certs.
Look at one of the other thread there is plenty of info available.