Printable View
I am wondering how EB3 I 's cut off date progressed to Dec 15 2003 when the number of pending applications for 2003 is 2513 which is almost an year's worth of Visa Numbers. Are the numbers in the inventory report much more than what the actual demand is?
yes the inventory is much higher than actual demand
there are couple of posts about the numbers in the forum :)
wonder why they stopped publishing the demand data?
Thanks migoQuote:
Originally Posted by migo79
Could it be that EB2 porters are still in the inventory ?Quote:
Originally Posted by amulchandra
Thanks migo79
In EB3-I 'would think that from 2k4 onwards most of the people would have ported than what is reported in the inventory. EB3-I folks who ever did change jobs must have definitely ported. Some (2k3 , 2k4)of them might have abandoned and went back to booming career growth in home countries.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcq
lets see, -if uscis figure out the way not to double count porters -what the uscis inventory reports in Jan -dos's demand data shows up or not :-?
VB released. EB3Row - 01JAN14 moved by 6 months, eb3 china - 01SEP11 6 months , eb3i moved by 1 week only to 22DEC03.
NO demand data or uscis I485-Inventory released yet.
EB3ROW now is technically current!
it will be interesting to watch next two bulletins.
so you mean EB3 ROW 2014jan PD guys are still either in 140 stage or perm stage ?Quote:
Originally Posted by migo79
Yup,
it takes at least a year for Perm and I140(non-premium) to be approved.
Quote:
Originally Posted by krishn
Do we know how many EB3row PERM could be in FY12, FY13 and FY14. wasnt it like 10-15k yearly ?
So how much eb3row fall across to EB3I will we see this year FY15?
Thanks
my previous calculations until Jan14 PD was around 21000 of total demand for EB3ROW on 2014, of course not all will be approved at the same time, so the number of approved applications should be much less than that.
I'm still convinced the number of FA this year will be modest but definitely should help.
next year will be another story where i expect a huge spillover (+10000) which will essentially bring EB3India huge relief.
the problem when this happen will be the people porting from EB2I to EB3I.
will be quite interesting!
Quote:
Originally Posted by krishn
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Years : 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
PERM ROW : 30138 19047 15819 17258 19756 16,033 20167
EB2: 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
China-mainland: 6,955 3,045 6,505 8,257 5,858 3,627 3,561
india: 14,806 10,106 19,961 23,997 19,726 17,193 23,527
philipines: 2,057 1,850 2,162 3,242 2,408 4,439 1,972
mexico: 1,347 922 817 1,147 823 1,717 750
eb2 total: 70,099 46,016 53,872 66,804 50,593 63,461 49,071
EB2 ROW Approvals: 44,934 30,093 24,427 30,161 21,778 36,485 17,247
eb2 row Perm = eb2row actual approvals / 2.2: 22467 15047 12214 15081 10889 18243 8624
eb2 row perm = discount 20% for niw etc after depedents: 17974 12038 9771 12065 8711 14594 6899
EB3 Perm guesstimate = (prior year Perm ROW - this year EB2 Approval): n/a 18100 9276 3754 8547 5162 9,134
EB3 Row 485 inventory guesstimate =2.2* eb3 perm guess: n/a 39820 20407.2 8258.8 18803.4 11356.4 20094.8
EB3 ROW 485 Inventory guesstimate = PERM ROW *0.3*2.2: 19892 12572 10441 11391 13039 10582 13311
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
this is arrived at off of Spec's perm data @ http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...d-Calculations
and EB2Row approvals off of
http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...l-reports.html
so the guess is 13 to 20k EB3Row demand we may see , so are we safe to expect a 7k to 14k fall across this FY15 in EB3 to EB3I ?
well, numbers speak for itself :)
Spec or Guru's,
from your Perm data here @ http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...d-Calculations
can one explain why there is a big difference in numbers for "CY of PD" and "FY of PD" for 2014 for ROW?
----year----- 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
CY of PD----- 44906 35259 30143 19055 15824 17265 19894 16033 3625
FY of Decision 41858 42430 22869 13597 30644 21173 18216 10491 20167
Thanks
I would imagine it is because the CY2014 is not fully updated, while FY2014 is (more) fully updated. Note that FY2014 end at the end of Sept 2014 while CY2014 obviously goes for 3 more months - so a FY will get updated in full earlier than a corresponding CY will.
Quote:
Originally Posted by krishn
krishn,Quote:
Originally Posted by krishn
The FY figure is not the "FY of PD". It is the FY in which the case was certified. The CY figure is the approximate PD of the case (calculated from the A number of the PERM).
I've changed your row descriptions in the quote of your post to more accurately reflect what the figures represent.Quote:
The tables represent the FY (October to September) that PERM applications with Priority Date in a Calendar Year were Certified.
The FY number is really only a measure of DOL's productivity for the FY.
In a FY where processing time become longer, then the numbers certified for the FY will be relatively low and the number of cases in the in the CY within the FY will also be low). Conversely, in a FY where processing times decrease, the number of PERMs certified will be higher. How many cases in the CY within the FY that are certified will depend on what the latest PD that DOL were processing in that FY.
So we saw 10.5k ROW certifications in FY2013 and 20.2k certifications in FY2014. In both cases, that total is made up certifications for several CY. In FY2014, the bulk of certifications had CY2013 PD (70%).
The total certifications for a CY (or PD if you prefer) will generally be seen over several FY of certifications. Depending on processing times, they may not be seen in the same CY/FY as the PD. Additionally, there will be an initial rush of regular cases, while a decreasing tail of audited and appealed cases may appear over the next 2 years or so. For CY2014 PD cases, relatively few of the eventual total had been certified by the end of FY2014. Already in FY2015, another 4,805 CY2014 cases have been certified to date. The latest date certified is around August 2014, but many from earlier in 2014 are still being certified (as well as CY2013 cases).
Taking CY2012 ROW cases certified to the end of FY2014 (based on A number) (19,894), 47% were certified in FY2012, a further 42% in FY2013 and the remainder in FY2014 (in fact, a few certifications for CY2012 are still being seen in FY2015).
An even more extreme example would be for CY2009 cases, where there were essentially no (5) certifications in FY2009.
Simplistically, the total FY certifications measures DOL productivity for that FY and CY of cases (PD) certified over several FY is a measure of the total number of cases for that PD year.
I hope that helps.
Thank you so very much. I understand it now. thanks
Employment- Based
All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed
CHINA - mainland born INDIA MEXICO PHILIPPINES
1st C C C C C
2nd C 01SEP10 01JAN07 C C
3rd 01JUN14 22OCT11 01JAN04 01JUN14 01JUN14
EB3 row Inventory = 8,000
EB2 row Inventory = 17,994
Yes EB3I is in 2003 :-(
and for past several years EB3 visas are unused/wasted by USCIS. Very very savagely Sad !!
EB3 I inventory decreased by 1950 , from oct14 to jan15
Hi all,Quote:
Originally Posted by krishn
I have a question for all the great gurus here.
Looks like EB3 Row inventory is only 8000 and it is technically current. Will there be a big spillover for EB3 I this year? Can poor EB3 I souls can have some relief?
I really appreciate your inputs.
Best Regards
Amul
last year for FY2014 Uscis/DOS moved dates for eb3i for 5 weeks.
from oct2013 to oct2014 visa bulletin - EB3I COD was moved from - 22sep2003 to 08Nov2003
and unused/wasted thousand of EB3 category visas as a whole.
if there is no spillover the eb3I dates should move into mar04, if there is any spillover looks like 5k avg, it should move to somewhere around sept04.
isnt it time for USCIS to issue medical RFE's for EB3I jan2k4 guys ?
As it takes some time to get the medicals done , when will they issue these ?
even though the the CO moves EB3I dates for a week or two in next bulletin , Jan Eb3I I-485s may not be approvable so the visas may get wasted for the quarter , isnt it?
Spec, Gurus ,
your thoughts on eb3I progress from now to september and how much will be the spillover from eb3row to eb3I this year?
thanks
EB3 ROW , M , P is technically current for months now.
EB3 I moves by one week , no medical rfe's for 2k4 eb3I 485's yet , so whats the use of moving dates by days or weeks if the visa eligible 485's are not approvable?
EB3C retrogress by 9 months. now this is shocker.
Maybe CO is waiting to do EB3 Fall across towards the last quarter of the year to be on safe side. Maybe he want to make sure no eligible EB3 row candidates misses their chance by doing FA too early.Quote:
Originally Posted by krishn
Also EB3 ROW/P/M may be current for all "practical' purposes, but not current in paper. Once he moves dates a few months forward for EB3-ROW, they will be current on paper too.
Not really.Quote:
Originally Posted by krishn
CO warned about the possibility previously.
The increased demand in EB3-C has been caused by reverse porting of EB2-C cases to EB3-C. The last Inventory gives some clue to that.
On the Chinese forums, they are all crying about how to relink back to EB2 again.
gcq,Quote:
Originally Posted by gcq
I think CO is being far too conservative with EB3-I movement.
I don't believe there is any doubt that there will be FA to India within EB3, although the exact amount may be unknown at this time. I think he could move the dates faster and still not compromise there being sufficient visa availability for EB3-WW for the rest of the FY.
The EB3-WW numbers may possibly see a surge at some point, if applicants don't insist on EB2 PERM requirements because the EB3-WW COD is so advanced. Given the time lag of the PERM/I-140/I-485 process, I'm not convinced that will be a factor for this FY.
EB3 I movement is extremely disappointing. I am wondering why CO is not moving it knowing that there will be an SO this year. I am worried that in the last quarter they might swing it too far and might end up wasting the numbers or not following FIFOQuote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I have been doing some Trackitt analysis on EB3 ROW approvals & this what I see;Quote:
Originally Posted by amulchandra
Duration ---------------------EB3 ROW APPROVALS
Oct 2012 - Feb 2013 -----------------> 101
Oct 2013 - Feb 2014 -----------------> 176
Oct 2014 - Feb 2015 -----------------> 70
So, in the same time period, only 40% approvals of EB3 ROW in FY2015 vs FY2014 & only 70% vs FY2013. In FY2013, there was good amount of SO to EB3I. This may indicate more SO in Q4 for EB3I. Any thoughts?
with the current Perm trend I think that EB3 ROW category will be safe for couple of years and will pull up EB3I with it.
I think CO should be safe until June bulletin to start moving EB3I at a more rapid pace, USCIS can issue RFE for medicals if needed and then approve straight forward cases.
the amount of FA is still to be determined, I see this calculation here as very relevant.
The approval for EB3ROW should start to pick up again in a month or two but will still be below limit, we also expected that if CO didn't move EB3ROW dates immediately beginning of the FY15 there will be this gap where there is virtually no demand for EB3ROW and latest Jan I485 pending inventory proved it.
looks like times and meaning of RFE have changed. earlier rfe was thought of something as not so good to get on I-485. Now EB3I folks who are/would be current and did not receive medical RFE are raising service request with uscis customer service and talking to L2 officer to get one to send in their medicals. looks like everything changes with time.
Can some one explain to me why EB3I is expected to get SO from EB3WW? Why isn't this going to EB2I? Has some thing changed because I thought every year this SO is going to EB2I? With this SO, will EB3I become current?
Iatiam
This is how it works - EB1 -> EB2 -> EB3Quote:
Originally Posted by iatiam
EB2-I receives the excess visas from EB1/Eb2WW. As EB2-I is backlogged so EB3-I doesn't get anything out of that. EB3WW gets around 28,000 visas every year from normal quota. 2015 would be the 1st year after many years when EB3WW doesn't have much demand to use that number. So excess from EB3WW would go to most backlogged candidates in the SAME category such as EB3-I because EB3-I is most backlogged in EB3.
General rule is excess visas should go to most backlogged countries in the SAME category first. This means EB2-I would first receives from EB2WW as both are EB2 categories. Similarly EB3-I would first receives from EB3WW as both are EB3 categories.
Because EB3 visas never come back into EB2. The only place unused EB3ROW visas can go is the most backlogged applications in EB3 (country doesn't really matter).Quote:
Originally Posted by iatiam
Iatam,Quote:
Originally Posted by iatiam
Essentially what Suva has said.
The term "Spillover" is comprised of two components:
a) Fall Down/Up - Unused visas in one Preference Category can be used in another Preference Category according to rules defined in the INA.
1) Unused numbers in EB4 and EB5 can Fall Up to EB1.
2) Unused numbers in EB1 can Fall Down to EB2.
3) Unused numbers in EB2 can Fall Down to EB3.
4) Unused numbers in EB3 are used in the computation of the next FY Family Based allocation. They do not Fall Down/Up to any other Employment Based Preference Category.
To be clear, there is no mechanism for EB2 to benefit from the under use of EB3 visa numbers. However, EB (and EB2-India in particular) benefits far more from the spare visas received from FB than any wasted from EB3.
b) Fall Across
Unused numbers within a Preference Category are first made available to other Countries within the same Preference Category.
1) Firstly they would be made available to any Country that has not yet reached the overall 7% limit.
2) Once demand from (i) has been satisfied (or the Countries themselves reach the 7% limit) they are made available to Countries that have already reached the 7% limit on a strictly earliest Priority Date basis.
This is because the Category Preference Allocation limit (28.6% of the total EB allocation) is higher in the hierarchy than the Preference Category (EB2, EB3 etc) alone.
That is to say, for the base 140,000 EB limit, the 40,040 visas allocated to EB3 cannot be used by any other Category while EB3 has demand from any Country within EB3.
Similarly, EB1 could not use EB2 FA if they had a sufficiently high demand.
ii) If all demand within a Preference Category is satisfied, then both FA and FD numbers can Fall Down to the next Preference Category (if applicable).
In practice, this FY, the most likely scenario is:
EB5-China will receive a lot of FA from other Countries within EB5. EB5 will provide no Fall Up to EB1.
No Country in EB4 will use Fall Across within EB4. EB4 may provide some Fall Up to EB1.
EB1-China and EB1-India will use Fall Across within EB1 (they almost certainly are already doing so this FY, having already passed the 7% limit within EB1).
EB1 may provide some Fall Down to EB2.
EB2-ROW, EB2-M and possibly EB2-P will provide some Fall Across within EB2 to the most retrogressed Country (India).
EB2 will not provide any Fall Down to EB3.
EB3-ROW and EB3-M will provide some Fall Across within EB3 to the most retrogressed Country (India).
Spec, Q and Suva,
Appreciate all your feedback.
Spec,
From what you wrote, the only SO to EB2I will be from EB2ROW, EB2M and EB2P. Is that correct? At this point in time, is it possible to narrow-down the SO numbers? I know you said 10k to 15k earlier. Does it look too much now?
Iatiam