So tha's about 18K in 2011.
Based on my discussions w Spec and Teddy the ROW-EB2 2011 demand would be somewhere near 24-28K. I know Teddy thinks its less than that. Wonder what these other gurus think about it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Printable View
So tha's about 18K in 2011.
Based on my discussions w Spec and Teddy the ROW-EB2 2011 demand would be somewhere near 24-28K. I know Teddy thinks its less than that. Wonder what these other gurus think about it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
That's right, again this assumes FY2010 PERM data(for EB2)and i140 data (EB1) as reference.
We saw increased i140 filings from March 2010(USCIS dash board) but any change in i140 filings starting Jan 2011 will have huge impact on SOFAD ( +ve or -ve).
In any case my gut feeling is EB2ROW( incl. M&P) shoul be less than 20k for FY 2011.
this includes mex and phi? taking the I+C quota out, 6-10k from EB2 across is possible?Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
so u r expecting fy2011 sofad slightly less than fy2010, 22-26k?
Bieber, I like you name :-)
I have a range from 15-35K but most likely it will be around 24-26K. There are others like Teddy who think more is possible. And then some like Spec who think it will be 20K.
I still haven't updated the header of the thread based on new 485 inventory and the 2010 data published.
However as I said always EB1 and EB2ROW are key to SOFAD. Based on EB5 contribution in 2010, one would be tempted to replace EB1 with EB5. Since EB1 continues to show strong demand and tends to utilize almost all its quota.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
Hi veni.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
I must admit you have lost me as to how you arrive at demand of 1k per month.
I think there are dangers to looking at the FY2009 data. Huge backlog reduction was under way and completions in some months were as high as 18-19k.
Another way to perhaps look at it is to say there were 74k I-140 completions in FY2010.
If 20k of these related to EB1, then 54k related to EB2/EB3.
If 50% of these were EB2 and 55% were Countries other than India and China that gives 14.85k EB2-ROW I-140s.
That would be 32.67k I-485 for EB2-ROW. We know that there were actually 27.4k approvals in FY2010 so that is a factor of 84%.
Currently, the average completions in FY2011 would give 65k for the year. Removing EB1 of 19k (because there are less visas) gives 46k. Using the 50% and 55% factors again gives 12.65k EB2 (non I or C) and 27.83k I-485. At 84% factor, that would be 23.38k I-485 approvals, which is 4k less than FY2010.
But, completions are running at a very low rate. If the current Receipt and Completions rates continued, the pending numbers would climb from 24k in September 2010 to just over 50k at the end of FY2011. Even just stabilizing the current Pending numbers would provide more than enough extra completions to match and exceed last year's figures.
I realize I have made some simplifications, but I think it still illustrates the point. Really, we don't have enough information on what is happening in FY2011, since USCIS have only published figures on I-140 for 2 months of the fiscal year.
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I have a range as well, although it does shift as more data comes in. It currently is stands at 21-26k SOFAD.
I have allowed for an increase in EB5 approvals, which may not happen.
It assumes a conservative position on EB1 (35-40k). If in fact the current Trackitt figures reflect reality for the entire year, it would allow for an entirely different level of SOFAD.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
What would be your SOFAD if trackitt were an accurate representation of EB1 consumption?
And thank you all for your awesome contribution.
-Vik
Q, thanks, inspired from teen sensation Justin Bieber.
Q and Spec both expecting 21/22-26K, don't know why I think they are on different poles with numbers during the discussion though :)
I like Teddy this year, last yr Q gave bigger sofad projection and teddy was conservative
Why only you, I like Teddy better than my SELF this year !! I wish he is right about real SOFAD following trackitt trend and creating a windfall for SOFAD.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
Friends I just researched Trackitt again to see the EB2 ROW trend looks like the approvals are accelerating now. If we compare the EB2 ROW + EB2 NIW approvals for Oct - Jan for both years the following results come up 169/245, lets make this ratio 180/245 as the full month of Jan has not elapsed and some folks put in approvals late.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
EB2 ROW consumption last year = 43000 - 6000 - 9500 = 27500.
Now the trend shows that the consumption is (180/245) * 27500 ~ 20K.
Since we are back to regular cap now EB2 ROW SOFAD ~= 40K-20K-5.5K ~= 14.5K.
Now the EB1 Trackitt trend seems to be too far from reality lets assume that EB1 will not give us any SOFAD to be conservative.
Total EB2 SOFAD = 20K (Adding India & China).
EB5 ~ 7K.
So even the most conservative calculation leads us to atleast 27K. If EB2 ROW consumption accelerates this could all crumble like a pack of cards. This SOFAD will take us to 01-JAN-2007. Unfortunately there seems to be no good way to compute EB1.
If EB1 were to decline even 25% it adds 10K to the SOFAD, if we assume that that we get say 5K from EB1 maybe we can call the range as 01-JAN-2007 to 01-MAR-2007. Iam assuming 6K PD porting.
Can't wait to see the updates!!Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
There are currently 16 users browsing this thread. (4 members and 12 guests)
angryclubs bieber qesehmk TeddyKoochu
May I ask our 12 guests to register and become active members of this forum?
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Guys I assume, looks like it maybe kudos or shoes for me in Sep 2011, if our friend Spec is right then it will definitely be purely shoes:).Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
Now coming to the perm acceleration most EB2 ROW folks have the luxury of filing the I140 and 485 concurrently or they can file the I140 in premium processing and then 485. The Jan 2011 inventory should I believe have shown this trend partly if not in its entirety. I do however notice that ROW approvals now are only 25% down than 33% when I checked at the beginning of the year.
It will never be shoes Teddy! :) Never!Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
We each have different approaches to the same problem, which is a very good situation to have.
For EB2-ROW (for me that means no M or P included, as on Trackitt) for instance, I am trying a slightly different way at looking at the Trackitt data.
Since the whole PERM situation is now much more current-current, I have thought that the Trackitt approvals might be more linear this year, rather than the huge surge at the beginning of the year.
There still was something of a surge, but tracked this way, the numbers have started to steady out at around 23k for the year. If M & P contribute around 3k again, that would be 26k in total for EB2-Non IC and provide around 8.5k Fall Across.
Of course, it has the potential to fall like a house of cards, but it is consistent with the derived EB2-ROW approvals by other methods, so I am happy to stick with it for the moment.
I admit that EB1 is a complete conundrum and I am stumped as how to arrive at a reliable figure. I am left only with gut instinct and to rely on the historical trend.
I suspect who gets the plaudits :D and who gets the boot :o (metaphorically speaking) depends on how EB1 pans out.
At the end of the day, all of us want the SOFAD figure to be as high as possible.
Thanks. The SOFAD right now varies from Spec - Teddy all depends on EB1 and ye dill maange more (My heart wants more). I was kidding about the shoes , I hope I don't get them or the boot :) as you say.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
My Estimate is based on FY 2009 &FY 2010 PERM and I140 completions
FY 2009
ROW PERM Approvals - 16,003
Total i140 Completions - 132,611
Total ROWEB2 i485 approvals - 32,879 ( incl. M&P)
This translates to about 10% of i140 approvals are EB2 ROW
FY 2010
ROW PERM Approvals - 37,255
Total i140 Completions - 73,746
Total ROWEB2 i485 approvals - 27,406( incl. M&P)
This translates to about 12% of i140 approvals are EB2 ROW
Assume that the i140 demand and EB2 i140 approvals will stay about the same ( 10-12%) then we are looking at about 9K EB2 i140 approvals for FY 2011 which translates to 19.8k EB2 ROW i485's for the entire year!:)
Alright angryclubs, here you go. I don't want to be clubbed by you ;-) Lol! Thanks everyone for your insight into the predictions and Q, your service in putting up this forum is much much appreciated!Quote:
Originally Posted by angryclubs
sha_kus,
Thanks for the info. This came out last week and there was some good discussion a couple of pages back on that topic.
Based on this info ... I still haven't updated the top of the thread. Planning to do so late tonight.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sha_kus
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
No problem at all. I completely missed this when you originally posted it.
I'll just check them again and send you the location. I think I have updated them with the real FY2010 figures as well now.
My only comment would be that the spillover interpretation changed and only 2008 onwards are directly comparable. Also some earlier years are distorted by the effects of Visa Recapture.
I'll try to get them to you tomorrow, but I have quite a busy day.
Spec
As promised I have updated the header. Unfortunately its a very tough message. I wish I have made some mistake in my calculations.
But as of now EB2IC seem doomed. Sorry that the news is extremely bitter. But as I said, the objective of this blog and thread is to bring clarity to GC process. I don't want to give false hope to anyone.
Please check the head of the thread for further details.
Thats a tragedy then Q. If this predicted worst case trend holds true and if the porting increases a bit (more than 6K), then theoretically, EB2 will not move or move very little until EB3 catches up a bit with it. Is my understanding correct?
Aw man. What a bummer. Just a few posts above yours Teddy seemed to be predicting a SOFAD of 27K. I thought he was the conservative one! :confused:Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I am sorry guys for deliverying a tough message. The inventory report didn't make any dent into our thinking. Its the 2010 approval actual data published recently that changed the whole thing.
The fact that EB1 continues to file 45-46K NEW cases in a year is very troublesome for EB2 because it practically blocks all SOFAD coming from EB5. And the fact that EB2-ROW continues to approve even at 3/4th rate as compared to 2010 is also not comforting.
Now I have may have gone overboard in terms of thinking that EB2-ROW will have that much new demand AND will at the same time clear all its backlog of 10K. So lets say for sake of argument, that EB2-ROW continues to carry 10K backlog in 2011 then that gives EB2 10k of SOFAD. With 5.6 already in the bag that's 15.6K which is barely enough to scrape through OCtober 2006.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TexDBoy
Quote:
Originally Posted by arorasa
Thanks, Q. It is in line with what I think and have been saying.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I saw the following on immigration-law.com
Quote: "01/25/2011: House Bill Introduced Yesterday to Grant Green Cards and Numerical Limitation Waiver for U.S. Earned STEM Ph.D
* Rep. Jeff Flake (R) of Arizona introduces H.R.399 in the House on 01/24/2011 to authorize certain aliens who have earned a Ph.D. degree from a United States institution of higher education in a field of science, technology, engineering, or mathematics (STEM) to be admitted for permanent residence and to be exempted from the numerical limitations on H-1B nonimmigrants. Last year, he was successful to add his amendment to 'America COMPETES Reauthorization Act of 2010' in the final House version to express the sense of Congress that advance educated STEM foreigners should be retained, but this amendment was dropped in the House-Senate conference process and failed in the final bill which has been enacted into a law, P.L. 111-358. In 2007, he introduced and failed "STRIVE Act of 2007" which was his version of comprehensive immigration reform bill as oppposed to Rep. Luis Gutierrez pro-undocumented alien comprehensive immigration reform bill. He has shown immigration reform in his own way and his own ideology focusing on border security and employment-based immigration system reform to expand immigration opportunities for highly educated alien professionals to participate in the economic security of the country. As soon as the full text is made available, we will report the full text. Please stay tuned."
I know bills like this go nowhere. But just a ray of hope for those who want to hang on.
KD
Thanks. I think this particular amendment is quite practical and easy to sell. If enacted this has good potential to positively affect EB2 situation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
You are frightening even me with the latest figures.
I am not entirely sure how you have calculated the EB1 Demand.
Your table reflects potential demand and gives the worst case scenario if that translated into approvals.
However, I am not sure it reflects the discussions that we have all been having on the forum.
Possibly, it needs a section that gives the best estimates for actual approvals (and maybe backlog carried through) and then the SOFAD calculation would run off that.
I don't think any of us believe that EB1 will consume 53k visas or that I or C will consume 8 or 9k each. None of us have talked about total SOFAD to EB2 of 7.3k as a realistic scenario.
I think you should present the best thinking (perhaps a mid point) and describe the up and downsides in the narrative.
I'm not sure why you are showing SOFAD in EB3 9.6k. EB3-I & C cannot receive more than 2.8 and 2.5k visas respectively. If there are any "spare" visas utilized in EB3, it would be by M & P at the expense of ROW.
These are brief comments. I haven't had time to study your post fully and analyze the figures properly and I probably won't until this evening.
Some thoughts to ponder on.
Spec
I know I would frighten anybody. And let me explain why this changed so much from what we have been discussing.
But before that .... quickly speaking .... keep EB3 out of this. Since this thread is EB2 .... I didn't calculate EB3 (which involves some finetuning between other workers and rest of EB3). So EB3 numbers are not solid. However they don't impact EB2. So we are good on this forum. I will separately update EB3 thread and then update EB3 here too.
Coming back to what changed:
1) EB2 ROW
Our discussions were always around ROW-EB2. So nothing really changed there other than I calculated PURE EB2-ROW NEW demand (lets say X) as follows:
... X = 2010 Actual Approvals - Dec 09 Inv + Oct 10 Inv
This "NEW DEMAND" indicates how many new 485s were filed in that year.
For 2010 this number came in as 27336 (ROW), 1095 (Mexico), 3477 (Philipines) = 31.9K
Incidently this exactly correlates to the I-140 approved last year for ROW-MP EB2. Which means that all of those 140s were traslated to 485 being filed (which again makes sense since ROW continues to be current.
Now if we assume that in 2011 the demand will be 3/4th of this number = 24K ; then thats what my new model assumes. So no surprises there.
2) EB1
However, we had never discussed calculating EB1 demand for 2011.
Now before we do that we at least need to understand the 2010 PURE NEW demand for EB1. Using same formula as above... that comes to 45.7K.
This begs the question is there any reason why in 2010 EB1 will see unusual demand. I do not have any reason here. And so we have no option but assuming that in 2011 we will continue to see similar levels.
3) The role of Backlog
Our discussions never explicitely discussed relatively higher level of EB1 and EB2-ROW backlog at the end of Sep 2010. This is a fact that the backlog is higher in both categories compared to Dec 09 levels. So the question is even if there is SOFAD in 2011, will USCIS choose to clear this backlog or will USCIS choose to pass it on to EB2.
I as always take conservative approach in assuming that the former will happen.
So that's the rationale so far. Pls feel free to point out any errors / improvements. On this one I will be really happy to be proven wrong since like you I too have a personal stake in it !!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I know my post will not add much to the discussion and will anyhow be ignored as usual. I have not spent as much time as you guys ( qesehmk,Teddy,Spec) in understanding the models and predict based on that. However just wanted to air this out .
Qesehmk is absolutely right in his prediction for 2011 and I would say he is being optimistic. All I have to back that up is this ,back in sep 2010 when I posted some links on people porting in huge numbers ( news link had quote straight from the horse's mouth,Oppenheimer the head of the divison that prepares the visa bulletins ) he had expected no movement in EB2 for atleast a year and a half. Even if rest of the backlogs in EB1 and rest of the headwinds improve, EB3-EB2 porting will consume much higher than is being estimated by the model (4k-6k) , EB3-EB2 cases are not being reported very well on trackitt but other immigration forums have a lot of info .So even if the rest improves , porting will consume the spillover easily.
Also just from day to day observation of the people around me , many stuck in the EB3 line are porting to EB2 with PD's prior to 2006. Also USCIS always needs money and when an EB3-EB2 conversion can net you around 10K why go through the fiasco of suddenly making the EB2 current and then running away with the money.
Anywaz I apologize if the above post ruffles any feathers...just had to get it out .
Q,
One thing that did occur to me in relation to EB1 (as I walked around clutching your table :eek:):
Since EB1 is Current, it allows Concurrent Filing. This means that there will be a certain number of I-485s that do not have underlying approved I-140s.
Over time, some, maybe most will get approved, but many will get denied and that Demand won't translate into Approvals.
For EB1, I suspect the denial rate is a significant factor. EB1A in particular, can be self filed. I have observed a fair number of RFEs and NOIDs for EB1A cases on Trackitt in the discussions. I don't know if these are reflected in the Trackitt statistics - I suspect not. I have no idea about B & C.
It therefore may not be surprising that EB1 Demand looks high and you may have to apply a factor to the Demand figures to arrive at Approvals.
If you thought EB1 would have 40k approvals, at the simplest level, the factor would be 40/53 or around 75%.
At the moment, that is the only way I can rationalize the paradox.
Sorry, I didn't realize that EB3 was untouched.
The new analysis is pretty scary but may be more in line with the reality. I have to wait one more year as my PD is Dec 2006 - EB2.
gcseeker ... sorry never meant to ignore or disrespect you. pls always feel free to contribute. Nobody knows the truth here.. We are all blind!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by gcseeker
Spec .... think about the PURE NEW DEMAND AS demand that hits DoS rather than demand at USCIS. The X I talked about above is this demand. This demand has all kinds of denial rates built into it. Right?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
gcseeker,Quote:
Originally Posted by gcseeker
No feathers ruffled here and thanks for your contribution.
You are quite right to point out that Porting has the ability to completely change the outlook.
If you've followed the discussion, you know how difficult it is to determine.
All we know is that it looked like it was around 3k last year and that there is a potential for 60k people in EB3-I to do so over time (probably much less, since some can't or won't overcome the 3 year degree issue or can't find a qualifying job). We don't know how fast it might accelerate either.
In addition to India, no one has any idea if other Countries have started in earnest.
I agree with you, it is a very scary subject for EB2 SOFAD.
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by admin
But we don't have any data for Demand at either DOS or USCIS for EB1. None of that means a thing for Categories that are Current.
EB1 isn't mentioned at all in the DOS Demand Document and it only represents the backlog on the date the USCIS Inventory was produced. Nothing can be inferred about the actual Demand or Approval rate.
That is why Trackitt is the only source of data about EB1.
Am I being stupid and missing something fundamental here?
Spec
EB1 NEW DEMAND at DoS can be inferred by the formular I suggested. Lets assume there is only 1 category for EB.
Now I want to understand how many people filed for 485 and approved in 2010. To answer this
1) there are only "Dec-09 inv" people to begin with.
2) then there are 41.2 or so approvals in 2010 that DoS has confirmed.
3) then there are "Oct-10 inv" people who are in pipeline w/o being approved.
So the people who applied and were approvable were
2) - 1) + 3)
That's what I call NEW DEMAND in 2010 in EB1. MAkes sense?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Thanks for showing the patience to explain it to me. I get it now.
That's quite an ingenious calculation.
With such a dynamically changing Category as EB1, it might only give an indicative figure.
For retrogressed Categories, we know that the cases in the Inventory have been pre-adjudicated.
I don't know at what point in the process that Current applications are added to the Inventory figures and I therefore don't know what those cases in the Inventory mean, or even if they are approvable.
I-140s and I-485s are not processed together, except in the rare event that they are part of the TSC Pilot Plus Program (I don't even know if that is still operational).
If the I-485s are entered into the Inventory fairly early, the underlying I-140s may not have been adjudicated. That leaves the possibility of them being removed later if the I-140 is denied.
If they are put on only after the I-140 has been approved, they can only represent "problem" cases, since it doesn't take long to adjudicate an I-485 otherwise. They would then just represent an increase in the Pending numbers.
I favor the first explanation.
PS Did you notice that even the EB1 figures in the January Inventory contained higher numbers in some of the early years, even as far back as 1997? I don't know what to make of that, since they can't have come from Local Offices, otherwise they would have been approved there.
If you have any information on this subject I would love to know.
Q appreciate all the time and the midnight oil you burnt to update the header. Its absolutely heartbreaking almost a shellacking. Your calculations look good based on all the assumptions unfortunately if all the assumptions hold then the situation will be as you have outlined. Kudos for putting it out though I can understand how painful it must have been given that all of us have a personal stake in it. Also it’s great that we all know well in advance what is going to happen that have all the hopes till the end and have them shattered. lets now debate some of the assumptions both qualitatively and quantitatively.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
- You have assumed the CP to be 15%, I remember reading it somewhere that its just 1% or less for EB2. With the kind of wait times that are there Iam sure people will have a very hard time justifying the future job offer these days it is hard to get H1B extensions approved without showing concrete evidence.
- On EB1 usage I remember that there used to be a user on IV - kondur007 (He first applied in EB2 the EB2-NIW and the EB1-A to get his GC) the and he gave some very helpful insights into EB1. Even when everything kept going south EB1 usage continued to surprise. The reason is that primarily EB1-A and B jobs are fairly isolated from the regular job market, in fact if the market were to go south people are more likely to stay in research and have more publications and apply again. The denial rates for EB1 A and B are very high and RFE's are a norm. For EB1C we would expect the usage to go south if the market goes down however probably it is staying stable because of the onsite / offshore model. So at best lets say that EB1 usage will stay the same. I do agree with Spec that probably Trackitt is the only way to see the EB1 trend however these folks maybe disinclined to enter their profiles because it does not take very long anyway or the general retribution that Eb1C folks especially get. On EB1C I can bet that the screws are being tightened and only genuine folks are getting past more than ever before.
The EB2 ROW trend I compared last years calculations and found that the decline from 2009 to 2010 did give a fairly accurate picture so hopefully the 2010 to 2011 will also be accurate. I do see that because of the acceleration happening the ratio has come down from a 33% decline to a 25% decline. EB2 ROW is going to be the most important and critical pillar. On the perm data figures I believe that we are probably being a little more conservative than usual going by the face values the main point of denial is really the I140, I don’t have any data to say but IMHO there will be a 20 dropout rate.
On the PD porting you are assuming 4K which probably is a little light Iwould put it at 6K, actually FY 2010 has been a huge awakening point especially for Indian folks that its the only way to get GC. The most shocking interpretation comes from the inventory for 2002 months Feb - Dec showed a decline in figures when almost every other saw a rise the reason being that even late 2002 are porting. But even the most pessimistic estimate would be 6K, there are a lot many who are happy with EAD / AP which is probably half of GC.
I just bumped up my post which seems to give 27K SOFAD your honest thoughts on that and what likelihood in terms of percentage you see it happening.
Spec
Pls find my comments inside in BLUE. Overall I will say if we keep it simple, its easier to understand, rationalize, digest and accept.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I know for a fact that EB1C is really tight this year, TCS almost stopped applying in that category as they can't answer the detailed queries and prove that for every one, this is causing problems for those companies to apply L1s and h1s if needed
TCS is now lookign to hire people who r already here and on h1 and ready for subcontracting, which tells how hard it's getting for them to bring people onsite.
Agencies did great job stopping the abuse, as of now 29month OPT is the only option for fresh graduates, and this year 20K h1 quota for MS grads lasted for really long time(last yr even though regular quota didn't fill, MS quota was quickly consumed)