Big congratulations to all who just became current!!
Nishant... hang in there... and save more money than just for the vaccines... you'll need it throw a party for yourself!
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Big congratulations to all who just became current!!
Nishant... hang in there... and save more money than just for the vaccines... you'll need it throw a party for yourself!
:) I thought giving him lot of money will create unnecessary tension in life, why not enjoy this wonderful 100k car instead with 3D maps and monster engine.Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
Thanks Leo, finally the term PWMB will be history come November, Now Iam trying to get everything together hopefully will try to have my case filed on the 1st. After so many years the boat will finally arrive. It almost feels like getting GC itself, Iam confident I wont have to renew h1 next year now.Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
rdsingh, can you find out if someone with a Feb 08 or later PD also get a note.Quote:
Originally Posted by rdsingh79
Sounds good to me, but I need to wait few more months I believe as my PD is April 8, 2008Quote:
Originally Posted by rdsingh79
Q, how much will the retrogression be? My PD is 08/20/2009 and I have been praying for EB 2 to be current although not losing my sleep over it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I will try to find out. One other frd with PD in late April 2008 did NOT get the note.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gclongwait
Thank you manubhai. You are doing great job. I have been noticing your efforts on various other forums too for the advocacy.
Quote:
Originally Posted by manubhai
I think the chances of category becoming current this year are nil. DoS demonstrated their appetite of gradual movements in Novemeber bulletin.
On 5 year course EB2 will move 1 yr per year. For 2009 please refer to spec's data in facts and data section.
Quote:
Originally Posted by self.coach
for the one that got the note. Do you know his exact priority date. the reason i am asking is my priority date is jan 10th 2008.Quote:
Originally Posted by rdsingh79
Just wanted to share this with folks who are/will be current:
Today I managed to talk to the L2. This is what she said... Once the application becomes current, USCIS sends all the application to DOS for visa allocation. According to her, it is sent on the first day of the month. However, it takes 30 days to get the visa allocated for each application. As and when the visa gets allocated, it gets assigned to an officer in USCIS. He/she reviews the case. If everything is Ok, gc is given. The whole process takes 6 weeks from the 1st of the month it became current. So people who are current in Oct 1 should have GC by
Nov 15th. However, how DOS allocates visa numbers for each application is a mystery....
Mine is still in a pre-adjudication level since 2008 July.... Still waiting for the visa number even though I am current since October 1st.
Good luck to all of you.
my wife has always been on her own h1bQuote:
Originally Posted by 03May07
self.coach - my PD is 08/09 as well and my preliminary and very approximate calculations lead me to believe that under most optimistic scenario we should be able to file 485 in Jan 2013. Much depends on how much spillover we get from EB1 this coming year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by self.coach
Folks, please take a look at this thread I have started: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...iring-in-India
Congrats to all who got current in Nov. VB.
Best of luck for the rest ..
Sunil.
Nishant - What is your PD ?Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
11/8/2007Quote:
Originally Posted by indiasunil
You can surely observe a minute of silence for me if you like.
No worries man. We will catch our day sooooooon !!..Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Good and informative thread; thanks for starting!Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Any predictions for PD of 03/06/2009 EB-2 India.
I have been in US for 12 long years and missed one chance to file I-140 for my earlier PD 03/23/2006 as the labor took too long to get certified and when I joined another big 5 consulting firm at that time, the labor came through.
There are some memos, think Yates or something, under which one can retain PD. But it is a memo & not Law...I've read forums that many people have used and succeded, so had issues...
Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
Fragomen indicate they have significant contacts in DOS, USCIS etc.
http://www.fragomen.com/newsresource...0-23206c308864
rdsingh79's info seems even better now. rdsingh79, this was told to you by ur coworkers?
His PD is Jan 04, 2008
Quote:
Originally Posted by ravisekhar
Understand your pain, buddy.. hang in there. Please see the Facts and data section on the forum to get an idea ( obviously thing will change over time). Excellent analysis there by Spec, Veni and others. Also, see this http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...oved-in-FY2011 ( brilliant analysis by our genius "THE" Spectator)Quote:
Originally Posted by mrhyderabad
If they follow the FB model, the dates should move at least couple of months in each of the next few bulletins, it will reach Jan 2008 in the next bulletin itself. But, their disclaimer in this this bulletin states "While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis". I am not sure whether they are saying that they are done with advancing the dates for Q1 and the next movement would come only in Q2 or they are indicating that the dates would not move each and every month towards the end of FY after they get enough inventory.Quote:
Originally Posted by rdsingh79
Are there any consensus on the numbers being used (For OCt) are from FY2011 or FY2012. I am trying to find out a post from Q in which he detailed a theory about mismatch 5000 visa numbers (based on trackitt data I guess?). Interestingly the demand dropped by around same number.
I'm not sure there is a consensus on that to date. Personally, I don't think it is as high as that. We can really only get a better idea when the DOS Visa Statistics are published in January, or details leak just before.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
Of the 26 EB2-I approvals to date on Trackitt, the breakdown is as follows:
FY2011 Cut Off Dates ---- 3
FY2012 Cut Off Dates --- 16
Porting ----------------- 7
Total ------------------ 26
PERM Data Clarification:
I was checking the PERM data posted by "Spec" for month of Jan 07
Jan-07 - 2,595 ------ 29 ------ 17 ------- 1 ------- 3 --- 2,645 --- 9.13% --- 9.13%
Total cases including India, China, EB2, EB3 is 2645.
But if I look at I485 inventory report for Jan 2007, including India, China, EB2 and EB3 the documented demand is 3045. So can we come at some formula like of every PERM would translate to 1.2 of 485. I know this is a deviation from other calculation devised by experts. But can someone help in reconciling the data ?
Thanks,
Arun
Arun,Quote:
Originally Posted by asankaran
It is good thinking and essentially the sort of approach I used when I first started analyzing the figures.
It assumes that the USCIS Inventory is the entire universe of applications, which of course it isn't, and that all applications held by USCIS are in the Inventory.
As an example, Consular Processed applications need to be added to the figures (at different % for EB2 & EB3).
Additionally, the last USCIS Inventory does not include any PWMB, who still have to file an I-485 or CP application. For Jan 2007, that figure isn't very high, but it becomes a factor nearer the end of the current backlog.
Essentially, what I do is very similar when I convert PERM to I-485/CP numbers, but uses a few more assumptions. I've tried to lay them out in this post http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...oved-in-FY2011
Welcome to the forum by the way.
Guys,
Recently I learned that effective July 16, 2007, USCIS eliminated LC substitution. Will that have any effect on our current assumptions of PERM to I-140 conversion rate going forward?
Also, prior to July 16, 2007, there was no expiration date for LCs. Since then they have imposed 180 days expiration limit. This may have its own impact.
http://www.visalawyerblog.com/2007/0...nation_re.html
This information is already counted by our Guru's, please go through
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumd...ATA-(READ-ONLY)
Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
Ohh Okay. Another thing I was thinking about is porting. Some have predicted that the porting was to the tune of 5000 per year for the last two years. It is actually a good news going forward. The more the porting number in previous years, the better it is now. We will be able to subtract the porting LCs from the total LCs for years 2008, 2009 and 2010.
I am sure Gurus have also taken this into consideration.
Quote:
Originally Posted by grnwtg
I had done a sample study for a few months and came upnwith near constant 70/30 eb2/eb3 ratio in the perms and I think a 1.3 to 1.6 perm to i485 rate for eb2. I don't remember how many i485 it came out to but 2500/mnth is too high.Quote:
Originally Posted by asankaran
Spec, one question, there is no I-485 approval rate in the assumption list. Is it close to 100% or does it not matter for setting of priority date.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
GhostWriter,Quote:
Originally Posted by GhostWriter
Clearly it isn't zero, but I don't think it is a very high number.
For practical purposes, I think the 32/28% reduction my figures already assume covers it.
There aren't that many reasons to deny an I-485. In many cases, the person could still CP instead, or clear the problem and reapply. For example if they have more than 180 days Status Violations/Unauthorized Employment.
For some it might be more difficult to CP, since AC21 doesn't apply to CP. In that case, they would have to get a new PERM and I-140 approval for the job they had moved to, assuming the original job offer no longer exists. They would still retain the original PD.
Even if that is the case, eventually I think most people will become an LPR, so the numbers become even smaller.
I hope that answers your question.
Thanks Spec, this is helpful. Good to know that it is not high, would have been quite cruel to wait so long for anything less than a certain outcome :)
immi2910, asankaran (Arun) - There is a cool observation that Veni had observed in 2011 posts. The product of the three multipliers (EB2/Total Perm, I-140 approval rate, Visas per I-140) comes out to be close to 1.
Spec's assumptions page has it close to 0.9 and immi2910's post on page 22 of this forum has it close to 1.1 so 1 is a convenient and not so bad approximation.
So if someone needed to have a rough estimate of time before their priority date became current a simple and dirty way is to lookup the number of people in front of you using PERM data posted by Spec and Veni (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...TATOR-amp-VENI) and divide it by (SOFAD estimate + 5600). To make the approximation better you can add a porting estimate (6000) to the numerator.
Nothing fancy here Time (in years) = Demand / Supply per year
The analysis done by all the gurus makes it simple to use a multiplier of 1 for newbies like me :) Just thought someone might find it useful.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thanks Spec for the clarification. I tried to apply the data and formula for the month of August 2007.
"60% EB2 PERM Certifications
20% denial rate at I-140 stage
2.05 dependent ratio
85% of PD2007 applications remain and 90% of PD2008 applications remain."
As per PERM data
Aug-07 --- 750 --- 1,189 ------ 251 ----- 85 ------- 8 --- 2,283
So if apply the assumption ((2283*.6)*8)*2.05 = 2246.47 * .85 = 1909
If I look at the chart Cut off Dates for various Levels in August 2007 without porting it is at 10302. Now if I add this number 1909 should it not be 12211. Instead I see it at 12475 on Sept 1. Is there is something I am missing ? I like all the assumptions you have included, hope the dependency factor is less.
I would like to use this data in finally creating a sort of inventory report and compare it with one released by USCIS later at the end of this year. If there are startling gaps then we can use that information to get the attention of the authorities.
Thanks again for all your effort.
Arun
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Arun,Quote:
Originally Posted by asankaran
Another good question.
I don't think you are necessarily missing anything. Your calculation is correct.
The Cut Off Dates chart uses a combination of known backlog from the DOS Demand figures (prorated to the monthly splits in the USCIS Inventory, which is slightly higher) and adds PWMB based on PERM using the formula above.
PWMB are defined as those whose PERM was Certified after August 17, 2007 and therefore could not have filed under the July 2007 VB. August 2007 is therefore a month where the figures are a combination of those known and those calculated.
I would have been amazed if the figures had matched exactly. It is within about 2%, which I would deem more than acceptable.
Whilst we all try our best, do realize that it is a fairly inexact science, because the data isn't great or necessarily complete.
It probably is worth reiterating to people that potential error margins are quite high, due to having to make multiple assumptions. That is why I didn't want to introduce another one for I-485 denial rate.
The numbers should be treated as qualitative and indicative, rather than quantitative.
I really don't mind if people don't agree with the assumptions, because their own might equally be correct.
On a limited basis, if someone has a strong opinion about some different numbers for the assumptions (with some explanation as to why), I am happy to run those figures and report the result to them.
Truthfully, no-one knows the real number. If they claim otherwise, they are either a liar or deluded :D. I certainly don't.
All I try to do is put my best thoughts out there, with some explanation of how the figures were arrived at.
PS - That reminds me, I need to upload some very small changes to the figures. For the technically minded, it is the difference between half of April and the 16 days that are actually left. It is only 28, but the numbers posted on the forum are different from those in my spreadsheet.
Thanks, Spec. Now I understand the whole calculation process. Though I agree with the whole assumption application, my gut feeling says that they could drastically change as we are dealing with humans as X-factor.
It would become more clear once we get the demand details from July 2007 to Nov 2007. Probably then you could update the assumptions and re-run the report.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
guys, I saw a huge number of approvals of EB2-C on mitbbs, at least 20-30. I think Mr.Co is planning to approve all the old cases before this end of year. I don't know what kind of visa numbers he is using, and I don't understand how he can assign so many visa numbers in the first month of this FY. It looks werid, but I hope all the old cases can be approved and the VB continues to move forward!