EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

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Originally Posted by redsox2009

Below numbers are the new I-485 fillings. There is a decrease in the number.

Month/Service Center TSC NSC Total
June 7,383 9,787 17170
July 6,376 9,184 15560
Aug 4,521 8,136 12657
Sep 4,019 6,807 10826


Is this is bacause of the retrogress of the EB2 dates or demand is low?

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redsox2009,

I think the figures suggest it is mainly due to retrogression of the EB2 dates.

Receipts

Month -- NSC/TSC -- India ------ WW
Oct11 -- 17,562 -- 15JUL07 -- Current
Nov11 -- 20,977 -- 01NOV07 -- Current
Dec11 -- 23,708 -- 15MAR08 -- Current
Jan11 -- 27,506 -- 01JAN09 -- Current
Feb12 -- 30,551 -- 01JAN10 -- Current
Mar12 -- 26,717 -- 01MAY10 -- Current
Apr12 -- 18,341 -- 01MAY10 -- Current
May12 -- 15,802 -- 15AUG07 -- Current
Jun12 -- 17,170 -- UNAVAIL -- Current
Jul12 -- 15,560 -- UNAVAIL -- 01JAN09
Aug12 -- 12,657 -- UNAVAIL -- 01JAN09
Sep12 -- 10,826 -- UNAVAIL -- 01JAN09

redsox - thanks.

90% of the decrease seems to be due to EB2ROW retrogression. The difference extrapolated to full year is pretty much EB2ROW annual consumption.

It would be reasonable to expect overall 485 filings to bound in Oct Nov and Dec due to these backlogged folks waiting to file 485 in EB2ROW.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redsox2009

Below numbers are the new I-485 fillings. There is a decrease in the number.

Month/Service Center TSC NSC Total
June 7,383 9,787 17170
July 6,376 9,184 15560
Aug 4,521 8,136 12657
Sep 4,019 6,807 10826


Is this is bacause of the retrogress of the EB2 dates or demand is low?

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This is a Category for which no information on I-485 usage during the year seems to be posted.

In FY2011, it surprisingly contributed over 3.5k visas towards spillover. The main reason for this appears to be a drop in approvals for Ministers and Religious Workers compared to FY2010, when EB4 used 11k.

We do not know the numbers for FY2012 yet.

I have been looking at the figures for I-360, which is the equivalent of the I-140 for EB4.

I am not sure what to make of it. It doesn't really point to spare visas being available to spillover from EB4.

I-360 Receipts in FY2011 were 18.8K and in FY2012 were 19.2k according to USCIS.

In FY2011, there were 12.2k I-360 approved, with an average denial rate of about 23% on applications completed.

In FY2012, the numbers are on course for around 10.6k I-360 approvals, with an average denial rate of about 27%.

The average ratio including Dependents is 1.75 for visas issued.

That would give potential I-485 numbers of 21.3k in FY2011 and 18.6k in FY2012.

Both are way above the c. 10k number available to EB4 in a FY when no extra FB visas from the previous year are available.

In addition the number of pending I-360 cases yet to be completed is huge and continues to rise.

At the beginning of FY2011 the number was 8.3k. By the end of FY2012, that number had risen to 17.7k I-360 applications pending or awaiting Customer action (mainly at Vermont).

It's hard to see how EB4 can contribute any spillover in future and makes it all the stranger that it did so in FY2011.

Any insight on this subject would be welcome.

Edit:-

One reason for the sudden drop in FY2011 may be the following:

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However, on October 13, 2010, the Ninth District Court of Appeals overturned the district court’s ruling in Ruiz-Diaz. USCIS therefore issued a memorandum to all of its adjudicators that effective November 8, 2010, USCIS will no longer accept concurrently filed I-360/I-485 forms for special immigrant religious worker cases. Any concurrently filed special immigrant religious worker petition filed prior to November 8 will be processed. After this date, any I-485 filed together with an I-360 for a religious worker will be rejected. Special immigrant religious workers must once again wait for the I-360 form to be approved before they can file the I-485 (and the I-1765 and I-131 forms).

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This may have caused a temporary dip in I-485 cases to adjudicate in FY2011.

The processing time for an I-360 at VSC is currently shown as 5 months

I-360s include battered spouses/children and widowers. These do not use the EB4 quota. Couldn;t that explain most of the discrepancy? The dashboard does not separate I-360s into categories.

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Originally Posted by justvisiting

I-360s include battered spouses/children and widowers. These do not use the EB4 quota. Couldn;t that explain most of the discrepancy? The dashboard does not separate I-360s into categories.

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justvisiting,

Thanks for that piece of information. You're right. That makes a lot of sense.

The dashboard does not separate out the sub categories, but the All Form Types Performance Data does into:

I-360 Amerasians
I-360 Widow(er) Petition
I-360 Abusee/Self Petition
I-360 Special Immigrant
I-360 Special Immigrant Juvenile

The SI Juvenile category does appear to count towards the quota and is shown as SL1 / SL6 category in the reports.

That brings the numbers down to slightly above full usage of the allocation available. With some I-485 denials, it would be about right.

The lack of EB4 approvals in FY2011 was exacerbated by the fact that the ratio for Religious I-360 is 2.0 when including Dependents

I still think the number of pending cases is worrisome, although there is no way to know which sub-category they belong to.

Thanks, that really helped.

I have found the figures released by DOS for EB5 visa usage in FY2012.

Previously, a figure of 6.2k had been mentioned - the numbers were actually much higher than that.

http://iiusablog.org/wp-content/uplo...Source-DOS.pdf

and

http://blog.lucidtext.com/

EB5 FY2012

China -------- 6,124 -- 80.15%
South Korea ---- 447
Taiwan --------- 148
Venezuela ------ 109
Iran ------------ 81

Total -------- 7,641

With 10,292 visas available to EB5 in FY2012 because of extra numbers from FB, that meant 2,651 visas fell up to EB1.

Given the rise in I-526 applications and approvals, it is virtually certain that EB5-China will have a Cut Off Date imposed at some time in FY2013.

Of the 7,641 approvals, 6,678 (or 87.4%) were Consular Processed.

PERMS/I-140 & I-485 for last five months.

This chart might help us to analyze the usage later. I don't have whole fig's to complie the chart for last year.

************************************************** ***********
2011/12 Total Bulletin - BUlletin - Total - Total - ROW
Month -- I-485 -- VisaB(I) - VisaB(W)-I-140 PERMS -PERMS
************************************************** ************
Oct11 -- 17,562 -- 15JUL07 -- Current
Nov11 -- 20,977 -- 01NOV07 -- Current
Dec11 -- 23,708 -- 15MAR08 -- Current - 5850
Jan11 -- 27,506 -- 01JAN09 -- Current
Feb12 -- 30,551 -- 01JAN10 -- Current - 4762
Mar12 -- 26,717 -- 01MAY10 -- Current - 4836
Apr12 -- 18,341 -- 01MAY10 -- Current - 4670
May12 -- 15,802 -- 15AUG07 -- Current - 5635 7926 2661
Jun12 -- 17,170 -- UNAVAIL -- Current - 7297 5951 2538
Jul12 -- 15,560 -- UNAVAIL -- 01JAN09 - 8093 6361 2460
Aug12 -- 12,657 -- UNAVAIL -- 01JAN09 - 7886 7378 3053
Sep12 -- 10,826 -- UNAVAIL -- 01JAN09 - 6910 6026 2273

Just some rough figures entirely based on Trackitt data for EB2/EB2-NIW ROW Approvals to date:

EB2 ------ 80%
EB2-NIW - 20%

EB2

Approvals

Receipt Date

92% have RD of June 2012 or earlier.
82% have RD of February 2012 through June 2012
8% have RD before 2012
92% have RD in 2012
52% have RD of June 2012

Priority Date

99% have a PD of April 2012 or earlier
62% have a PD before 2012
38% have a PD in 2012

Pending

57% of cases received since October 2011 remain pending (51% if 20% never update).


EB2-NIW

Approvals

Receipt Date

97% have RD of June 2012 or earlier.
95% have RD of October 2011 through June 2012
18% have RD before 2012
82% have RD in 2012
31% have RD of June 2012

Priority Date

99% have a PD of April 2012 or earlier
28% have a PD before 2012
72% have a PD in 2012
13% have a PD of June 2012

Pending

49% of EB2-NIW cases received since October 2011 remain pending (43% if 20% never update).

The above might give some idea of how processing is going, but the sample size is quite low. Use your common sense.

Is this Group dead or people lost hope??

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Originally Posted by richie.rich

Is this Group dead or people lost hope??

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I'm doing my best!! :)

Given that most members are probably EB2-I and the fact that not much is likely to happen with Cut Off Dates for some time, perhaps it is natural that there is less discussion.

I think there is much beyond that which is interesting and I have tried to post information as it becomes available which might help with either forecasting Spillover for FY2013 or trying to determine the number of visas allocated in FY2012.

I'm sure there will be discussion when the next Demand Data figures and Visa Bulletin are published (hopefully on Monday).

It cuts both ways though. If people don't participate and ask a question or post their thoughts, there will not be many posts.

Is there anything you wanted to discuss in particular? What are your thoughts?

Spec - I also think that one of our goal is to bring clarity to GC process. Less activity also may indicate less anxiety when people have generally a fair idea of where things are going. In fact in last 3 years we certainly have reduced the frenzy around Visa bulletins. People were too crazy about the bulletins and it was a voodoo discussion. However today I think people are much better educated about the role of EB1 EB2ROW and how and why the dates move.

Of course USCIS / DOS is prefectly capable of creating haphazard movements - like they did in FY 2012. But overall I am not too disturbed if forum is silent because of lack of anxiety!

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I'm doing my best!! :)

Given that most members are probably EB2-I and the fact that not much is likely to happen with Cut Off Dates for some time, perhaps it is natural that there is less discussion.

I think there is much beyond that which is interesting and I have tried to post information as it becomes available which might help with either forecasting Spillover for FY2013 or trying to determine the number of visas allocated in FY2012.

I'm sure there will be discussion when the next Demand Data figures and Visa Bulletin are published (hopefully on Monday).

It cuts both ways though. If people don't participate and ask a question or post their thoughts, there will not be many posts.

Is there anything you wanted to discuss in particular? What are your thoughts?

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec - I also think that one of our goal is to bring clarity to GC process. Less activity also may indicate less anxiety when people have generally a fair idea of where things are going. In fact in last 3 years we certainly have reduced the frenzy around Visa bulletins. People were too crazy about the bulletins and it was a voodoo discussion. However today I think people are much better educated about the role of EB1 EB2ROW and how and why the dates move.

Of course USCIS / DOS is prefectly capable of creating haphazard movements - like they did in FY 2012. But overall I am not too disturbed if forum is silent because of lack of anxiety!

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Q,

I agree with you, particularly about VBs, but I think my points are valid too.

Currently, there is precious little information available to judge how EB1 & EB2-WW and will perform over the whole of FY2013. That is going to determine where EB2-I end the year.

I had hoped to start hearing about figures for last year. We now have some EB5 figures, but only a confusing (and obviously incorrect) statement about EB2-IC.

In general, Q1 is quite quiet as the pattern for the year emerges. I think it is noteworthy to point out that EB2-ROW already has Trackitt approvals that number over 40% of FY2012 and more than a 1/3 of FY2011 numbers. The approvals are going to be "lumpy' and we might expect a "quiet" period fairly soon, but it does not bode well for spillover.

considering this the calculations thread, its tough to do so without new data. No new data = no new calculations = no new insight = less traffic. No one's fault..its just the nature of the beast right now.

I guarantee traffic will increase around VB time especially since Q1 is now over and we'll get insight in to if CO will apply QSP (unlikely but unknown for a fact).

I do make it to the thread at least once every couple days - I read - but really don't have anything to post since there isn't much happening. I am sure the traffic and also posts will materialize once we have some more data available and things start to happen.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by vizcard

considering this the calculations thread, its tough to do so without new data. No new data = no new calculations = no new insight = less traffic. No one's fault..its just the nature of the beast right now.

I guarantee traffic will increase around VB time especially since Q1 is now over and we'll get insight in to if CO will apply QSP (unlikely but unknown for a fact).

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by vizcard

considering this the calculations thread, its tough to do so without new data. No new data = no new calculations = no new insight = less traffic. No one's fault..its just the nature of the beast right now.

I guarantee traffic will increase around VB time especially since Q1 is now over and we'll get insight in to if CO will apply QSP (unlikely but unknown for a fact).

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I think less frenzy and more fact based discussions is what makes this blog the best sources for the GC process information.. There are far too many sites wherein we have routine threads of "Predictions for *****, 20** Visa bulletin" and then a bunch of responses most of which are "Cut Of Date Predictions = My PD+ 1 week".

Out here we have people with depth of info like Q/Spec/Veni/Teddy/Nishant whose opinions mean something.. These guys are like the Alan Greenspans of the world.. they don't give out random predictions coz they know that people take them seriously..

With great data crunching power, comes great responsibility.. :)

Does anyone have a read on the 'delay' in posting the visa bulletin? I ought to have come out by Friday, or yesterday. The 11th is officially late, so what gives?

I suspect the dates will move forward and they're trying to pinpoint the precise date to move it to.

Pedro, generally it is second Friday or 10th business day of the month.

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Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales

Does anyone have a read on the 'delay' in posting the visa bulletin? I ought to have come out by Friday, or yesterday. The 11th is officially late, so what gives?

I suspect the dates will move forward and they're trying to pinpoint the precise date to move it to.

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Jan 2013 Visa Bulletin is out : http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_5834.html

No Change to EB2I. Movement for EB2C

Q,

If EB2C end this fiscal year say to Mid Sep 2008. What are chances for EB2I? Is it going to end on the same date as EB2C when spillover is going to start some time after this quarter?

Please reply.

No Demand Data yet.

It was published after the VB last month, so there is still hope.

EB3-P has really stalled. It has only moved 2 weeks in 5 VBs and now trails EB3-M-ROW by 5 1/2 months.

I think there are could be only two theories for non movement of EB2I.

1. Mr. CO is trying to estimate the Porting cases and is not approving any EB2I (or may be approving only porting cases before 1st sep 2004).

2. There are more than 250 porters (or whatever the monthly quota) with PD before 1st sep 2004 applying every month.

Feel free to add your own theories..

yank - skpanda's theory #2 seems quite plausible to me. So in all likelihood we will see movement not before Jun 2013.

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Originally Posted by yank

Q,

If EB2C end this fiscal year say to Mid Sep 2008. What are chances for EB2I? Is it going to end on the same date as EB2C when spillover is going to start some time after this quarter?

Please reply.

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My first post here and all I really wanted to say was what a fantastic place this is to get some answers to a process otherwise shrouded in absolute mystery, so yeah, thanks Mr.Q, Spec and many other tireless contributors. My priority date is in Oct 2008 (EB2I of course) and like many here I've been patiently waiting for my turn, but irrespective of what happens I've always found some respite here, so kudos to you folks! Cheers! (if you're wondering why triplet, it is inspired by the movie triplets de belleville! If you haven't seen it, make sure you do!)

Thanks Q for the reply.

My question is not when dates are going to move forward. I would like to know if there is any possibility that EB2I PD matches with EB2C by Sep 2013.

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Originally Posted by yank

Thanks Q for the reply.

My question is not when dates are going to move forward. I would like to know if there is any possibility that EB2I PD matches with EB2C by Sep 2013.

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You're really asking what the spillover is going to be for the year. I think there isn't any consensus over here on that issue yet, but I think if EB2C keeps moving at the same pace then no, EB2I will not catchup even if we get to use all the spillover.