Printable View
Thanks neospeed!!! I appreciate it.
One thing that a translation couldn't mess up and that conveys the gist of the messages is EB2-less-than-7000 for September. ( we were thinking of 3-10k anyways )
qblogfan, you are the man of the hour. Can you please translate and enlighten us :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by neospeed
Any idea if the govt shutdown will have an impact on the VBs, with the budget deficit discussions going on?
On a lighter note, one thing that I failed to understand was the followup post:
(Google Translation was)..." The focus seems to be to persuade the British to establish the heart of his pants to make chopsticks to deposit. Otherwise he will drag on, big Bright waves boiling SO next year. "
Obviously our Chinese friends don't seem to be too happy with CO and there's some slang involved there :) LOL
Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
govt shutdown shall not affect USCIS which is a self-funded agency. CP will be affected as overseas consulates might stop issuing visas. DOL will be affected (PERM will not be done) as DOL is funded by government.Quote:
Originally Posted by srimurthy
I do not think shutdown will happen, the country's credit rating is at stake. it's a political game and they will avoid by short term measures, until they get to actual one.
That is one of the last things that you need to worry now. CIS is almost funded by future-immigrants, self-sufficient with funds. DOS, is not, but since your dates are current, that might not be your worry :)
LOL!!! Leo, that is hilarious ! It's so funny what comes up in google translation :)Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
yeah, it is hilarious. I'm just as much interested to get the second post translated as the first one, by our very own qblogfan :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monica12
Leo,Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
That's funny.
In my translation, CO is often referred to as the "Austrian".
As best I could work out, 19k is the theoretical figure (for August/September) "First, he said 19,000 of the remaining completely inaccurate, because of their monthly batch of inventory than we see thousands more".
However, CO is worried about the usage he has seen in June other than EB2-IC "EB1 Has increased in June".
Also, the "monthly batch of inventory than we see thousands more" seems to suggest greater usage than expected?
At the moment, he has determined there might be less than 7k available to EB2 in September (it isn't clear whether that is all EB2 or just EB2-IC) "So, he scheduled in September that is used to determine the actual EB2 remaining places will be less than 7000.".
I think the pictogram type languages just don't lend themselves very well to machine translation to a letter based grammar and sentence construction. It needs a fluent speaker of both to do so.
Qblogfan where art thou .... The translators are putting hearts in the pants... Come here soon And provide the translation... Save your language....
I agree with Spec and his translation is good.
I think Mr.CO always changes his mind in the last minute and all these communications only reflect his current thinking. Nobody really knows what he will do in the next VB.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
Soggadu ... you are so funny. :D
That's all:)
We were hoping you'd translate everything for us, including the jokes:)
Thanks for confirmation, btw.
Ok, jokes apart. If we assume < 7k to be 6000 visas then according to Spec's table it must reach July 15th 2007 at least? ("15-Jul-07 -- 2,146 -- 3,771 -- 5,917 ---- 750")
Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
Leo,Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
That would depend whether the < 7k only has to cover EB2-IC or all of EB2. That part was not clear.
Leo, I think at this point, I feel anything can happen. 7K is for EB2 I/C, EB2 entire .... who knows. Also 7k left is a projection by him based on what he thinks EB1 will also gobble up from the overall, what if that deviates a lot. It's all in flux, and will boil down to numbers which CO crunches until the last day before VB. This is the crucial one, he has to try to ensure no visas are wasted, as well as they are allocated fairly. And this time he has the flexibility of a pre-adjudicated buffer to play around with, which might be the last FY to have so.Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
Hi Nishanth,
IMHO, for the month of September, there is no difference between EB2IC & EB2ROW. They are just raw visa numbers, whichever visa-processor gets their hand on the visa number first, will hold the visa to that application. Only thing we can assume and that can throw us off is any sudden rise of approve-able EB2ROW and EB1 cases. 140 approval surge( &485 apps) in last 30 days, is unlikely to create such rise. For Eb2ROW or Eb1 to throw any monkey wrench in September bulletin, 140 approval( &485 apps) surge must have happened in April-May-June months. July-August surge is unlikely to grab visa numbers this year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Sorry for diverting from the topic again.
Regarding my Passport renewal I have 2 questions.
1. How do I get my documents notarized?
2. My I94 is stapled in the passport. Do I need to take it off while sending the passport.
Thanks in advance.
Deb:confused:
Leo, thanks for the explanation. It makes sense to me what you are saying.Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
This is from my own experience:Quote:
Originally Posted by iamdeb
1. Notaries have a cover sheet facility, where in, on cover sheet, they write down what documents beneath they are notarizing, and on the main cover sheet, they put down the main stamp and much more details, while on the actual document copies, the simple stamp. This way you save money, one notary fee, instead of a fee per document. You can get notarized at local UPS store, or even many companies Human Resource department. I am pretty sure you can even google and find out.
2. You need not send I-94. I did not.
I just renewed my wife's passport. You can go to local AAA office or your bank - they have a notary in the office. I did remove I-94 stapled in the passport before sending the latter for renewal. I also wrote a letter asking them to send the original passport back along with the new one.Quote:
Originally Posted by iamdeb
Any post office or UPS will have a certified notary that can notarize, for a small fee of course.
Yes, you will have to un-staple I-94(white card ) off your passport and staple( clip) it to new one.
I-94 is a bond between you & US. Passport is b/n you and your home-country :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by iamdeb
Leo the Jul - Aug surge in I140 will grab visa numbers for all concurrently filed cases for EB2 ROW and EB1, IMHO around 50%of these cases are filed concurrently, so for I/C SOFAD this is peaking at a slightly inopportune time, it may pull down this year’s SOFAD and make it increase next year. CO will have to do a real last minute estimation / guesstimation, the EB2 I/C cases will be governed by the set PD. The EB2 ROW and EB1 cases can provide the buffer to CO to close the deal. For all concurrently filed cases the 485 review process happens pretty much in parallel and FP happens within 1.5 months so as soon as 140 is approved these cases are also as good as preadjudicated.Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
I see your point. I also agree with your point that most of these cases are concurrently filed. I would think more than 90% of these ROW cases would be concurrently filed, there is no reason for them not to file concurrent for a EB petition. However, my only hanging-thread of assumption is that it is not possible for a case to move from 140-approved status to Documentarily-qualified for Visa ( or Pre-Adj) status in 30-60 days.
If someone were to tell me that these two processes are parallel, while 140 gets approved, CIS simultaneously works on preparing the ground for 485 on the same app, my assumption falls totally apart.
I found this link on OH law firm website:Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-...02-19249-filed
which basically is about some memo long back in 2002 which led to the allowing of concurrent filing of I-140 and I-485. I have not read every detail, but if you see summary, the primary reason being listed for doing so is:
The current Immigration and Naturalization Service (Service)
regulations provide that an alien worker who wants to apply for
permanent resident by filing the appropriate Form I-485, Application to
Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, cannot do so until he or
she obtains approval of the underlying petition, Form I-140, Immigrant
Petition for Alien Worker. This procedure has resulted in an
unnecessary delay for certain alien workers. This interim rule amends
the Service's regulations by allowing the Form I-485 to be filed
concurrently when a visa is immediately available, thereby improving
the efficiency of the process as well as customer service.
To me this indicates, that they do simultaneously work on preparing the 485, since the basic premise of allowing concurrent filing was to reduce delay.
And next notice the line in Bold, this thing kills us.
Good find, I lost my battle more than half :)
The only defense is trackitt data for past 6 months, average time b/n 140 approval & 485 approval for ROW concurrent is:72.85 days. ( I excluded anything larger than 200 days and 0s and 1 day processing times)
Now, I'm back to square one, at the mercy of CO :)
Thanks Nishanth and Teddy for your comments.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Hi Leo please don't disappoint about the visa moment , I know how much hard work you are doing on the analysis and other activities and I am big fan of this forum and I just registered and posting a first post.Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
My humble bow to Q, Spec, Leo,T and other great guru's .Please don’t loose the hope on moment ,if not today, tomorrow or some day we will reach our destiny.
My personal thanks all great gurus in this forum for number crunching and moment prediction.
Nishanth as you mentioned in earlier post your wife and daughter complain about spending most of the time in Q’s forum this is what exactly happing in my home also…;);)
Leo good point about trakitt data. Here is the shortest approval i saw so far:Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-immigrat.../i485-eb/22257
concurrently filed one with I-140 premium, I-140 and I-485 approval gap is approx 2 months.
Thank you all for the advice.Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
One more question on it.
In the application form which address shall I fill for Address to be Printed in Passport?
Will it be my Indian home address or the current US Address?
Pertaining to the same section, what will be the Other Address?
I am confused about the address issue.
Appreciate all your help.
Deb
FYI. Key info made available by the mitbbs:
1) 7K is for EB2 (not EB2IC) Sept
2) EB2IC cut-off date will proceed steadily
3) EB2 waiting time (pd-current) will be less than 4-1/2 years
Guys .. I have been away a bit and haven't been able to read a lot of the things. But let me point out a simple thing:
If EB2 Sep Quota is 7K then why is it such a bad news? At 28.7% of 19K one would expect Sep+Aug EB2 quota at ~5-6K. So Sep quota would've been ~3K. So ~7K should beconsidered a good news if true.
On the other hand 7K for Sept alone is a great thing - if true. To be honest... predictions stuff works better at a macro level. I wouldn't dare to try to calculate and predict for a single month and so it might be a better idea to apply common sense to Sep situation. The fact is - in the past, DoS has made movement in Sept. The fact is - DoS seems to be determined to clear backlog. The fact is - EB1 is clogged due to Kazarian. The fact is - CO has expressed cautious interest in getting in new cases. So more than likely, there could be a decent couple of months movement in Sept coupled with a BTM in Sept or Oct.
Its a general principle that at a micro level the noise kills any ability to predict. So a single EB1/EB2ROW wave of applications could easily wipe out the entire SOFAD. Will it happen? Most likely not. As I said the likelihood of a couple of months movement remains strong and all we need to do is wait and watch. Good luck!
sai999, here I am again. 4.50 AM PST.
Q just put a wonderful summary.
N thanks for ur post, welcome!
Quote:
Originally Posted by sai999
When renewing my passport I have filled in my current US address at that time. That was 4 years ago and did not have any problems for the address.
Quote:
Originally Posted by iamdeb
In few hours, I will be in office. I have my passport app saved as pdf. I will see n let u know. I wud like to say US address for current n India for permanent. Will confirm.
Quote:
Originally Posted by iamdeb
Friends,
The following is the breakdown i derived after going through various data sources for Q1&Q2
I140 Denials(Average EB1-2-3)
FY2011(Q1+Q2)
Completions = 35,3331
Approvals = 30,820
Denials = 4,511 (~13%)
If we take EB1 denial rate as 25% then based on PERM breakdown EB2 will be at 10% and EB3 will be at 5%.
AOS(485) Breakdown
EB1 = 10,692 (including ROW-M-P EB2 NIW)
EB2ROWMP = 13,645
EB2I = 2,800
EB2C = 2,000
EB3 = 12,563
EB4 = 4,690
EB5 = 419
Total AOS approvals = 46,812
USCIS Data shows 45,981 (diff =1.8% )
CP Breakdown(Based on AOS Vs CP %)
EB1 = 1,253
EB2 = 599
EB3 = 3,969
EB4 = 1,735
EB5 = 978
Total CP approvals = 8,533
Total EB Usage(Q1+Q2) = AOS+CP = 55,345
I will try to post my calculations over the weekend, in the mean time if this breakdown doesn't make any sense, rip it apart!
I would greatly appreciate any feedback on the following issue. My PD is March 19 2007 and my date will be current beginning August 1st. I applied for my advance parole document in early May (almost 80 days)and have not received it to date. Would it reasonable to assume that USCIS will process my greencard application and will simply cancel my AP application? Also, I have only been fingerprinted once. The fingerpriting took place when I applied for my first EAD card in the fall of 2007. Do I need to contact USCIS about getting the fingerprinting updated? Will not doing so hold up my the processing of my green card application? Is it unusal for people to not get a new fingerprinting appointment with every EAD/AP renewal?
We should mention Indian Address...(I have done the same last year).Quote:
Originally Posted by iamdeb
New members are so very welcome to this wonderful forum. Everybody here looks to your active participation and contribution. Please keep the thread postings relevant to the topic. If you need to ask questions not related to the thread, please start a new thread. It helps to lessen the load on our moderators who work on a voluntary basis. Thank you for your cooperation.
I was just checking Trackitt approvals for EB2 India -
May 2011 approvals - 154
June 2011 approvals - 264
July 2011 approvals so far - 257
I vaguely remember that we need to give two addresses. Permanent is Passport address and for communication ( Dont remember, How its named in the application form) its US address.Quote:
Originally Posted by new2gc
Coming to Notary, in previous occasions i got free notary done at wachovia, citi and bank of america ( probably some branches act tough on it). I still remember doing notary to around 50 documents for my wife's Master's and Citi bank guy signed it on every document and stamped it freely( if you have any account with them). I will be disappointed to pay for notary when we are getting less then 2% of interest rates from Banks.
I agree with kd..Please open a new thread for questions not related to this thread....Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
But Academic, I will quickly try since you asked...
First welcome to the forum... I dont know if they will just approve GC or the AP first.
but it's not unusual for them to approve GC with just one set of FP ...there are many cases on Trackitt where GC were approved where the applicants were FP just once in 2007 (What I noticed though was that most of these people never applied again for AP/ EAD renewal)
I on the other hand, have got a FP notice every year when I applied for AP renewal..Good luck in August :)
So did we already calculated percentage of indian/china folks in EB1 category rejected? . If it is row, most likely it might come to eb2 affected next year quota but if they are India/china they come to eb2 but stand in queue.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001