EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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Originally Posted by EB32010

YT, I am revisiting this prediction of yours. Do you think it will still be just 25% only on the downgrades? If you look at trackitt, there are many many downgrades happening. I am expecting downgrading to spike up exponentially once it pass May 2010.

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I agree. I am expecting that it will be a 2 yr jamba lakidi pamba, before EB2 goes ahead again(given that no immigration bill will be passed anymore)

March VB out:

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam..._march2019.pdf

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Originally Posted by Maxray

March VB out:

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam..._march2019.pdf

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Very disappointing for EB2I, moved only by 3 days to April 9 2009, it is like torturing, ours is April 17 2009 and the last few months have been really annoying. Can anyone in this forum - Spec, YT - provide any insight, how many more painful months to wait before my date becomes current.

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Originally Posted by saagar_is_cool

Very disappointing for EB2I, moved only by 3 days to April 9 2009, it is like torturing, ours is April 17 2009 and the last few months have been really annoying. Can anyone in this forum - Spec, YT - provide any insight, how many more painful months to wait before my date becomes current.

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Yes. It’s very painful for EB2.

Also I am very disappointed with EB3 movement too. I expected little more.

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Originally Posted by saagar_is_cool

Very disappointing for EB2I, moved only by 3 days to April 9 2009, it is like torturing, ours is April 17 2009 and the last few months have been really annoying. Can anyone in this forum - Spec, YT - provide any insight, how many more painful months to wait before my date becomes current.

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I am in no way a prediction guru but at this point any kind prediction will be more like speculation rather that a calculated guess.

Did'nt some folks say that EB3 FAD will move ahead 3 months every VB ? This time it moved out only by 1 month.

This VB is going to change a lot of discussions we had especially around the 3 months movement in EB3. It seems we may end up with only 3 months movement by May VB. This is a total bummer!

1 month for EB3 is surprising, but last year EB3 moved 13 months between March and April so maybe next month will be better.

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Originally Posted by ferric

1 month for EB3 is surprising, but last year EB3 moved 13 months between March and April so maybe next month will be better.

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There might be better movement next month; given its the new quarter. Also, I think everyone should be a little more patient. EB2I moved five months in last one year.

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Originally Posted by iatiam

There might be better movement next month; given its the new quarter. Also, I think everyone should be a little more patient. EB2I moved five months in last one year.

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Pretty sure EB2/3I folks are the epitome of patience ;-) I think the surprising part was that the bulletin projected movement up to 3 months yet moved only one month, why not project 1 month in that case or, offer up a reason for the difference?

Are they just being cautious or have they received more 485s than they were expecting?

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Originally Posted by ferric

Pretty sure EB2/3I folks are the epitome of patience ;-) I think the surprising part was that the bulletin projected movement up to 3 months yet moved only one month, why not project 1 month in that case or, offer up a reason for the difference?

Are they just being cautious or have they received more 485s than they were expecting?

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Yes we are. And honest truth is that we are better off than most Americans and other demographics as well. A green card will give lots of peace but that's pretty much about it

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Originally Posted by iatiam

Yes we are. And honest truth is that we are better off than most Americans and other demographics as well. A green card will give lots of peace but that's pretty much about it

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Do you understand hindi/urdu - "dil ko khush rakhne ko, ghalib, yeh kahyal bhi achcha hai". :)

Please dont take this the wrong way but ....

I am not sure you can say that. "We are better off than most americans" really? How ? Could you please educate us?

Is that how we wanna project overselves? with Empty words?

specs any plans for updating rackitt data for fy2019?

This bulletin's EB3-I movement has shown, "DON"T DOWNGRADE NOW". Wait and watch, its seems the EB3-I might not pass Oct-2009. CO had said multiple times that EB2 and EB3 will be very close. So people who are rushing towards the downgrade might have to strongly reconsider else they will again kick themselves for downgrading.

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Originally Posted by EB2-03252009

specs any plans for updating rackitt data for fy2019?

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Not trying to be rude here but no amount of analysis is going to help us anymore as the DOS/ USCIS are hellbent on making this wait miserable. We are wasting our time in false hopes and uncertainty every month. They could at least make a statement that in a particular month in the last quarter- they will apply spillover or some rules to that effect.

My BIL Moved to Australia on 2017. He might have made a smart move :)

In a cliffhanger, my EB3I-140 - I485 concurrent filing application reached USCIS on 1/30. Did anyone who filed late Jan get a receipt notice? I am still waiting for mine. Seems a long wait compared to earlier filings.

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Originally Posted by mcmilers

My BIL Moved to Australia on 2017. He might have made a smart move :)

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BIL's are always smart... proved again! :)

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Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

Any advice on what to do for EB2I PD of May 10, 2010? Just hang tight until FAD reaches that or do all the shenanigans of down porting when the EB3 Filing Date crosses that? No issues with the job as such and going on year 12 now so stability is not a concern. Another couple of years and my wife can apply in EB1A or B. Thanks!

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Wait for EB3 FAD to reach and you can file I140 concurrently. After filing and service center is known you can move 140 to premium .
There are couple of users in October I 485 forum in track it have done it that way

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Originally Posted by h1bh1bh1b

Wait for EB3 FAD to reach and you can file I140 concurrently. After filing and service center is known you can move 140 to premium .
There are couple of users in October I 485 forum in track it have done it that way

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Sorry I meant DF chart date

http://immigrationgirl.com/dhs-moves...r-h-4-spouses/

Marked economically significant : In my opinion, it can be potentially gone in 4-6 months. Of course there will be lawsuits etc.

In other news, H4 EAD will require fingerprinting from March 11th onwards, adding delays again.

Well, we knew anyway that the Admin is hostile.

As predicted -
https://immfinews.com/a-long-way-for...e-beyond-2009/

In absence of clear picture of 485 inventory it seems that EB2I will clear Aug-Sept 2009 in this FY with moderate spillover. EB3 FAD will move in tandem to discourage downgrade while trying to utilize as many unused ROW visas in that category.

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Originally Posted by LASHAB

In absence of clear picture of 485 inventory it seems that EB2I will clear Aug-Sept 2009 in this FY with moderate spillover. EB3 FAD will move in tandem to discourage downgrade while trying to utilize as many unused ROW visas in that category.

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Not sure what you mean by moving in tandem to prevent downporting. It is not an objective of the system to discourage anything. People do things (upgrade or downgrade) based on their needs, and those change the numbers and thus the dates.

Can anyone opine on why USCIS has not published the pending inventory since July 2018?

In what ways, do they get to benefit (specifically in mis-allocating immigrant visas) by withholding the current pending inventory?

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Originally Posted by altek001

Can anyone opine on why USCIS has not published the pending inventory since July 2018?

In what ways, do they get to benefit (specifically in mis-allocating immigrant visas) by withholding the current pending inventory?

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Could be by design, carelessness or inefficiency. My bet is on #1. State dept doesn't want you to know clear picture of when somebody may be greened. Perhaps they think people can conspire against the US if they know when they may be greened. That may sound farfetched ... but it may not be.

Why USCIS has not published the pending inventory ?
This may be the answer...
https://immfinews.com/uscis-eb-485-i...-long-overdue/

I believe there are very less chances for EB2-India to clear August/sep 2009. There are atleast 1000-1500 applicants per each month in 2009. Right now we are in Apr 2009...based on this go ahead and calculate.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Could be by design, carelessness or inefficiency. My bet is on #1. State dept doesn't want you to know clear picture of when somebody may be greened. Perhaps they think people can conspire against the US if they know when they may be greened. That may sound farfetched ... but it may not be.

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I have a feeling that the uscis is not utilizing all of the visa numbers from past few years (at least from 2015), it is intentionally wasting visas, because of it is being preached, driven by the strong anti-immigrant non profit groups.

At this time, the only information they are sharing is just the annual per country consumption report, I think they can cook up this report, not sure how to prove this.

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Originally Posted by Raj0687

I have a feeling that the uscis is not utilizing all of the visa numbers from past few years (at least from 2015), it is intentionally wasting visas, because of it is being preached, driven by the strong anti-immigrant non profit groups.

At this time, the only information they are sharing is just the annual per country consumption report, I think they can cook up this report, not sure how to prove this.

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You maybe right . This goes back to the same thing that Q has been telling which is to take this to court or channelize energies in suing instead of solely doing advocacy . Maybe advocay works - but havent we tried that already many times with 100s of co-sponsors and getting beaten down at the end ? There is saying "To not make a mistake is a mistake , but to keep keep doing the same mistake everytme and expecting different result is foolishness"

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Originally Posted by rohanvus

You maybe right . This goes back to the same thing that Q has been telling which is to take this to court or channelize energies in suing instead of solely doing advocacy . Maybe advocay works - but havent we tried that already many times with 100s of co-sponsors and getting beaten down at the end ? There is saying "To not make a mistake is a mistake , but to keep keep doing the same mistake everytme and expecting different result is foolishness"

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Needs someone(or a group) with persistence, and deep pockets to pursue this. Some EB5 China investors recently sued for adding dependents as part of EB5, and it was denied

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Originally Posted by Raj0687

I have a feeling that the uscis is not utilizing all of the visa numbers from past few years (at least from 2015), it is intentionally wasting visas, because of it is being preached, driven by the strong anti-immigrant non profit groups.

At this time, the only information they are sharing is just the annual per country consumption report, I think they can cook up this report, not sure how to prove this.

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I agree on wastage/ reallocation of visa numbers, which is why EB-India is stuck. This correlates to increasing costs in keeping up with filing and visa fees.

Not releasing Pending inventory for 8 months is very fishy. AILA not questioning USCIS on this, is quite frustating. It appears there are many stakeholders who have a benefit in withholding this information.

Even since Dates of Filiing were introduced in 2015, the Visa bulletin movement of dates have been miserable.

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Originally Posted by altek001

I agree on wastage/ reallocation of visa numbers, which is why EB-India is stuck. This correlates to increasing costs in keeping up with filing and visa fees.

Not releasing Pending inventory for 8 months is very fishy. AILA not questioning USCIS on this, is quite frustating. It appears there are many stakeholders who have a benefit in withholding this information.

Even since Dates of Filiing were introduced in 2015, the Visa bulletin movement of dates have been miserable.

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Attachment 1447Attachment 1448

Pending inventory over the years

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Originally Posted by altek001

Attachment 1447Attachment 1448

Pending inventory over the years

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Pending inventory beyond Jan 18 does not include field office information for Eb1 and 3

https://immfinews.com/uscis-eb-485-i...a-long-overdue

As per this article, USCIS may not release the inventory ever!

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Originally Posted by babslak

I believe there are very less chances for EB2-India to clear August/sep 2009. There are atleast 1000-1500 applicants per each month in 2009. Right now we are in Apr 2009...based on this go ahead and calculate.

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Since the pending inventory data is not available since Jul 18, its tough to make any assessment, even with unreliable nos in the pending inventory report. My guess is based on a SO of 4-5k and clearing up of Jan-March 09 in last FY. With this assumption the dates can clear Aug 09. But again these are all assumptions in absence of any concrete and reliable data.

When will spillover, if available, be applied? The third or the fourth quarter?

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Originally Posted by EB2/eb3

https://immfinews.com/uscis-eb-485-i...a-long-overdue

As per this article, USCIS may not release the inventory ever!

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USCIS ultimately had to resort to this rule, as lot of folks in EB India (including EB1) have gamed the system to apply in the category where Green Card is obtained in the least time. Many folks petitioned for in EB2/EB3, think of getting EB1C by working overseas for sometime in Indian IT firms. Though there is nothing wrong with doing this, this hurts others who wait patiently in their queue category. This has compounded to severe visa retrogression in a few categories.

Atleast we should appreciate someone in USCIS/DOS has noticed and making regulatory changes to alleviate this problem. Who knows they made end up NOT counting dependents in EB visa allocation when enough comments are received.

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Originally Posted by altek001

USCIS ultimately had to resort to this rule, as lot of folks in EB India (including EB1) have gamed the system to apply in the category where Green Card is obtained in the least time. Many folks petitioned for in EB2/EB3, think of getting EB1C by working overseas for sometime in Indian IT firms. Though there is nothing wrong with doing this, this hurts others who wait patiently in their queue category. This has compounded to severe visa retrogression in a few categories.

Atleast we should appreciate someone in USCIS/DOS has noticed and making regulatory changes to alleviate this problem. Who knows they made end up NOT counting dependents in EB visa allocation when enough comments are received.

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stockholm syndrome :)