Printable View
Compare the bulletin in October 20 and October 21. For October 20 they had EB numbers at 262500 whereas for October 21 it shows 140,000. There is no ROW applicants waiting to apply yet. The lawsuit by great lawyer ensured that going forward USCIS will show only 140,000 and allocate the spillover at their whims and fancy.Quote:
Originally Posted by MKPD2015
Spillover is by law isn't it, so it has to be counted whether in Oct or Nov. Utilising them is another thing. I personally don't think this lawsuit will do anything to make USCIS hurt 'ego' or anything. USCIS work will be determined a lot by the administration , uscis leader, and the overall guidance it recieves top down.
With estimated 85k wastage from this year, a lot of 'demand' will spillover to next year too, and the supply spillover from fb will take care of these demands. In the process new applicants, like us with pd in 2014, 2015 etc lost out due to broken system/incompetent USCIS planing/opaque rules in terms of utilising visa in the early quarters.
If somehow Immigration provisions in budget recon moves forward, we can see some hope.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
Nope there is no big picture - at least not the way you see it.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
First the VB is not a USCIS thing. It is DOS thing. Particularly the visa availability is solely determined by DOS (USCIS can ask for a visa and tell DOS how many they used. But USCIS is not custodian). Typically DOS takes a month or two to determine visa availability. CO has already indicated the availability (which I am 80% sure will be bigger than last year). So no USCIS is not playing any games in this VB.
As per the lawsuit, I do not have any information that makes me believe it has harmed any future chances for EB folks. The lawyer earned some money. Of course. But is it any secret? And since when it is a crime for a lawyer to earn money? It is not a good idea to accuse somebody - particularly a lawyer - without specific information. I don't know Greg Siskind even remotely. I am sure he has no clue who I am. I have no reason to defend him or his lawsuit. I do think most immigration lawyers are in bed with corporations when it comes to H1B slavery. But I don't go about naming specific people. It's not very wise for many different reasons.
Finally - if you think this lawsuit was complete waste of money then what in your opinion is remedy or way forward for backlogged people?
IMHO they need to fight in the court of law as well as in the court of public opinion.
Visa bulletin is issued by DOS. They also know the count of FB visa processing and exact count to date the number of visas processed in consulates. They had clearly indicated 262 K visas available in October 2020 bulletin, this number came down to 140K in October 2021. Just a glance at Specs document would make it clear there are going to be nearly 150K + visas spilled over from family to EB for FY22. They just set it to mandated 140K for 2022. The spillover rule mentions about visas from FB to EB. Nowhere it insist on DOS/USCIS to clear more than 140K visas minimum a year for Employment. Anything more is at their mercy. This is where this lawsuit directly impacted in the decision making of DOS. USCIS made maximum efforts to use the available visas, however this lawsuit ensured that no more than 140K for FY22.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
The jumping gun lawyer screwed up in 2015 with visagate lawsuit. All you need is to read the live tweets which clearly indicated how this lawsuit is going to end. Lawsuit is not a crime, but the 196 people who joined for a screwed up lawsuit is the reason why lawyers like him will continue these shenanigans totally detrimental to EB applicants.
Backlogged people - People beyond 2015 have the option for spouses to work. Almost all the new people coming in are skilled couples, they can make enough money. Many Indians who worked in Middle East did that for last 50 years. The 7% rule is designed to keep non-European immigration in control and just don't even bother to join any immigration action plans. There are no friends for EB immigration in any party. Don't confuse sympathetic views, it is all working with an angle. Grassley, Schumer, Durbin all are experienced hands with their own agenda's and Employment immigration is not a priority for them. The only person who was really sincere about this was Kevin Yoder, but his own party and special interest groups torpedoed him.
Now you mentioned public opinion. We had an article in SF times few years back when people were talking about H4EAD withdrawal. One person was mentioned her concern of paying their 4500 mortgage amount if she loses the job. There was counter by another journalist claiming while Americans are jobless H4EAD takes all the high paying jobs and they have million dollar mansions, the journalist conveniently ignored the fact that SFO is most expensive average real estate in US. But it was intended and succeeded in creating some public aversion against highly paid Indians around US.
Lawsuits just give you a feeling that you have avenues to address your concerns. In reality it is just a tool for lawyers to squeeze more money out of gullible applicants. The questions asked by the Judge in the lawsuit makes it very clear that he has no clue of what the case was about and the plaintiff law firm is totally inept to handle the case. But with nearly $400,000 in the account, he is laughing all the way to the bank.
Ace there are 3 things you speak of so I will keep it succint:Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
1) The VB - the bottomline is the number will be revised - no doubt. Last year may be an exception. Traditionally the number is not immediately know. Go back into history and look for yourself if you don't believe me.
2) The lawsuit - Even if we assume the lawsuit was ill conceived and executed - that by itself doesn't mean people should stop trying. May be another more competent lawyer can be useful.
3) The path forward - Your suggestion that people work 50 years like in middle east is completely unacceptable to me. And I am fairly certainly you won't find even 1% backers to that.
4) The public opinion - There always is and will be opposition as you try to make your case. You should not even try to win over the hardliners. Just focus on middle of the path people. There is plenty of americans who fall in that category. Remember trumpsters are still 37% or so in number. Majority of Americans are not racist and value hardwork and talent.
1. I concur with you. Last year may be an isolation to the years before. They give the exact numbers in the September bulletins which is the last one of a FY.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
2. The lawsuit from GS was nefarious and designed to loot money from EB immigrants. This is the statement from September 21 bulletin "The fiscal year 2021 limit for employment-based preference immigrants calculated under INA 201 is 262,288." The law mandates minimum usage of 140,000. So there was no wastage as claimed by GS. But just like many of guys in the past who claimed EB1C abuse, the lawyer managed to get 196 gullible souls to cough out $2025. People will still continue to cry EB1C abuse.
3. I was defining a base line expectation. HR 3012 came a decade back. Due to different learning experiences by IV that bill never passed even after many iterations. Even if the 100 % of backlogged people are against it, people in power do not care as you are not a vote bank.
4. While I agree Biden administration removed lot of hassles for non-immigrant visa holders, nothing favorable came to backlogged EB applicants. Majority of Americans are silent, complicit and downplay racist overtures. The hard left and hard right have identical agendas, so for 37% of Trumpsters you have 37% of equal and opposite Sanders/AOC/Illan/Tayb crowd which indicates the decent crowd is 1 in 4. To put the 37% in perspective, Modi won 2 national elections in India with 31 and 34%.
You can not say you agree that last year may be isolation and then immediately say they give exact numbers in September bulletins.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
No they don't. Last year was exception. Usually the spillover adjustment is made 1-2-3-4 months late. Usually 4 months out the adjustment will be reflected.
I already said even if the lawsuit is ill executed doesn't mean people should stop trying.
Country cap removal is absolutely a worthy goal but IV created animosity where there was no need. Less said the better. They are now untouchables on the hill. If I were a democrat I wouldn't meet them ever. And I don't think any dem should meet them. IV simply has no understanding of immigration politics. Enough said. But yes country cap remains a completely worthy goal. And I do think legislative judicial and public opinion all three are needed. It's not one or the other.
Majority of people are busy with their lives. If they ignore racist overtures doesn't mean they are complicit. Honestly I also don't think every trump supporter is necessarily a racist. But every anti immigrant racist sure is a trump supporter. I will leave modi out of this :)
I looked up the bulletins and said you were right. They put the yearly availability only on the September bulletin.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
A leadership purge of IV with new blood might provide a new life for the organization. Easier said than done.
I used Modi only for the numerical % you put. I have absolutely no idea of what India is for the last decade since I have not gone there.
I misunderstood. Sorry. Thanks for confirming that Sep bulletin usually only shows base visa cap.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
I think - just like Jonty did with physicians - some people need to come together and form a better advocacy group.
As per Modi - I was simply trying to avoid his mention. I personally think he is a disaster and has set India back by a decade at least. But that's a digression. Yes your point about 35% support is quite valid.
Summary of Charlie's live video yesterday
-EB3-I No forward movement in FY 2022. He saw extreme surge of EB3 applications, Retrogression is expected.
-EB2-I may move slowly in coming months
-He already considered 290K visa including 150K spillover for FY 2022. That is not sufficient for FY 2020 pending applications.
Now only hope left on reconciliation bill
Gurus - Any insights ?
Good points. It seems there is some traction in media. At least a start. https://fox59.com/morning-news/local...-years-in-u-s/Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Special interest groups - the problem with them is they are niche and they generally tend to be very rich. All it takes is one anti-immigration reporter to spin it as an entitled request and the story fizzles out. Unlimited renewals, working spouse, income percentile among the top 10% of yearly earners, the odds against are very high. I believe the 7% rule is intentional and by design.
Modi is like a drug to people. You praise Modi, they are calm, you present any criticism , the fans are literally violent. When I say fans it is not just outsiders, close family and even people who were close friends in the past.
"That is not sufficient for FY 2020 pending applications."- This point I could not understand. I could not join the meeting but what I heard from others the ROW is high and EB3-I has surpassed and overflowing. How they are impacting is to found out? But if EB3-I has to be retrogressed if so then how long...?Quote:
Originally Posted by andhraguy
I meant the new 485 applications filed in FY 2021 are way more than the spill overs.Quote:
Originally Posted by LeoAugust
That's the reason why they have retrogressed from i-Jan-2015 to 1-Jan-2014. On that scenario... SO will be more than APPs. Also the number of i140 approved in SRc is just 10k and total application went to lin is 20k(i140). This is where it is intriguing...Quote:
Originally Posted by LeoAugust
I think this was expected. 262K visas were supposed to be allocated in FY2020 and based on that DOS moved the dates in Oct 2020. But USCIS has wasted ~80K to 90K visas , issuing only 180K at the most. Hence, even though FY2021 has potential of 290K visas out of that 80K have already been accounted for in FY2020 demand without getting greened.Quote:
Originally Posted by andhraguy
But for the wastage of 80K visas last year, we would have seen a very similar surge in PD in the Oct 2021 bulletin.
This I am not sure about. I will have to some day sit down and look at it. My gut feel is that the dates were moved in 2021 with assumption that all visas will be utilized but since now the visas are significantly underutilized the visa office thinks a further date movement for backlogged countries may not be needed.Quote:
Originally Posted by inspired_p
Unless I am misunderstood; that's the same point I am making . If the wastage of visas had not happened visa office would have had to move the PDs out to get more applications, currently the 80K plus applications waiting to be adjuticated makes further movement not a necessityQuote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Follow-up question - has the potential wastage/USCIS processing limitation been assumed in FY22's in deciding the DOF ? If no, then this will horror story will repeat next september as well...Quote:
Originally Posted by inspired_p
Yes indeed!Quote:
Originally Posted by inspired_p
@gc_dedo posted this question about COVID and Travel to India. I think this is important to many of us.
Please take a look and share if you have first hand experience!
https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...eling-to-India
Apparently, the DOS has taken the realistic approach. I think DOF will not move anymore in FY2022, and as stated by charlie there might be retrogression in FAD for EB3 as well soonQuote:
Originally Posted by MidWestMaverick
I don't foresee too many see saw movements in FAD
Disappointing news for those hoping for a miracle.Quote:
Originally Posted by rsnake
For FB certainly a bad news. But for EB it's a bit of a mixed news.Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
Their choice was either receive another 150K+ extra visas from FB (now more likely) or reclaim last year's 100K unused and keep using it until it is exhausted (under the new legalization add on to infra bill).
On plus side eitherway EB would benefit with extra visas and on the negative side it really doesn't matter much if EB India gets more or less numbers when USCIS continues to underutilize the numbers and country caps remain in force.
I agree with you on DOS's approach. On one hand people (like me) will miss on atleast getting EAD, but this approach will save them from the headache of retrogression/see-saw movement atleast for EB2 in the near future. I am hoping/guessing EB2 and 3 queues get into a state of equilibrium by September 2022.Quote:
Originally Posted by inspired_p
Hey Sling ,Quote:
Originally Posted by sling10
Hope your filing process is going smoothly .
Just to clarify - We don't need I-944 form anymore while filing 485 or is that still applicable ?
Hey rohanvus, Yes I-944 is not needed anymore. Following forms will be needed :Quote:
Originally Posted by rohanvus
G-1145 (Optional)
I-485
I-485 Supplement J (Only for the primary applicant)
I-765
I-131
I-693
I presume you are filing by yourself too. How are you packaging the entire application. I am separating them by form types, for eg: 485 for me and my dependents in 1 envelope, 765 for me and my dependents in another envelope and 131 for me and my dependents in a 3rd envelope and then putting all the 3 envelopes in a single big envelope. Is that how you are packaging your application too ?
Also, are you fastening the forms by punching holes using a double hole punch and then using fasteners to fasten them OR just using a big paper clip to hold the form along with the supporting documents together ?
You should not be punching anything. There are several guides/instructions online on how to assemble packages. Here are a couple:Quote:
Originally Posted by sling10
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXc0mGmBcWI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mxIZvLwwzN0
gammaray - Thanks for the links ! Infact, I have watched them before. The form filing tips link on the USCIS website : https://www.uscis.gov/forms/filing-g...rm-filing-tips mentions the following :Quote:
Originally Posted by gammaray
Use fasteners to hold together thick or bulky applications or petitions. Two-hole punching the top of the material for easy placement in the file is appreciated.
I am inclined towards not hole punching the package.
Lots of action happening on the political frontlines, so not all hope is gone. For instance, yesterday there were talks of moving the immigration registry date from 1972 to a later date, lets say X - which will effectively grant GC to anyone in US who came before X. The Parliamentarian can be overridden too - happened earlier this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
This is the last chance for Dems to push immigration reform. Next year being Election year.
I wish sucess for everyone and most importantly for all the backloggers to get out of this queue. If you have followed my posts so far, I always tell everyone to not trust their AILA attorneys and their company (blindly). While I never had any issues with my company (or most US based companies), I find it that for most of the India based IT companies this is an issue for many. You have to have enough knowledge to analyze what the attorneys are recommending. Try not to blindly follow what the company / attorney are offering as a solution.Quote:
Originally Posted by newyorker123
On the topic; I came across a post that said that Dick Durbin never submitted the Employment based provisions for review by the Senate Parlimentarian. I leave you to analyze the true intention of Democrat here and you can replace it with Republicans easily if they are the majority. Second, it looks like Greg Siskind lawsuite for GC uasage has been tossed out by the judge. Third the latest talk is to set the registry date to 1JAN2010. That may help a few who landed here before 2010, but most backloggers will still be in the backlog.
It is my understanding that everyone knows that backloggers are the golden goose. Everyone wants to take advantage of the backloggers, be it the company or the AILA attorneys. I know it is very hard to be grounded when these things pop-up once in a while (I went through that). My advice would be to get on with your lives and try not to get emotionally attached to these things that are beyond your control.
Absolutely :)Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
Hello idliman
What do you mean by registry date?
Legalization Through "Registry"Quote:
Originally Posted by longwaitgigu
Hope This Helps!
Thankyou idliman
I never knew this kind of rule exists.
Does it have to pass through house and Senate?
I have a question if any one can answer please
There is a theory which I am reading everywhere- uscis approving green cards with PD of 2011, 2012, 2013 rather than 2009,2010 coz they r predicting 2009 and 10 will stay current so it could be utilized from 2022 quota.
I have filed in November 2020 and PD- OCT- 2010 and still not received i485j or GC. Ead/ap approved in August. I see many approvals past my RD and PD. So I am thinking the above theory is applicable.
It is really frustrating and agonizing that we have to suffer and see people beyond our PD getting GC. All of a sudden PD doesn't matter.
The question is
Will uscis start approving cases from PD 2009 and 2010 starting oct 1st as the deadline of using numbers will not mandate them?
Thankyou all for insights
If it was that easy, i am surprised Obama did not change the registry date when he could.Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
I do not agree with that theory. My take is USIS is still prioritizing 2009, 2010 cases and taking immediate action on these cases wherever possible. Also trying to utilize maximum visa usages by allocating GC to those having straight cases and has no RFE. so far what I saw 2012,2013 cases who got their GC recently is mostly due to No RFE and straight cases. There might be some exception, some luck and how adjudication officer is working.Quote:
Originally Posted by longwaitgigu
Few cases are pending for final approval since 4-5+ months after submitting medicals, where are few cases are getting approved with in 1-2 weeks after RFE response is received. My friend your PD is 2010 and you will definitely get approval soon. Just matter is time. your PD is not going to retrogress. you have weighted so long, few more days/months.
Not sure which theory is applicable for this approval process. Waiting for 10 years was so simple and never tensed. This Zig zag approvals makes me so nervous. I have given Biometrics in Jan 2021 and same status is going on...Quote:
Originally Posted by longwaitgigu