EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

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08-12-2013, 04:49 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales

There were folks that checked the Bombay consulate's website at some point early in the morning for an early release of the bulletin. Does anyone know what that site was and what time the updates usually came?

I used to check the Mumbai site http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html

I can't remember the last time they had the dates before the VB was published - it's a long time and never since they published the wrong dates.

PS Bombay?? Surely you don't use that name anymore? :)
08-12-2013, 05:05 PM
MATT2012

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

I used to check the Mumbai site http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html

I can't remember the last time they had the dates before the VB was published - it's a long time and never since they published the wrong dates.

PS Bombay?? Surely you don't use that name anymore? :)

Spec,

I check every month without fail, The last I noticed Mumbai consulate VB getting published before the official one was sometime in FY2012.
08-12-2013, 05:28 PM
inspired_p

Quote:

Originally Posted by wolverine82

Inspired... thanks for sharing the news and as everyone else we would love for this to happen but I had been tracking these kinds of cases and most of them had some previous PD's which the users forgot about and kind of raised false hopes... not saying this is the case but just wanted to double-check... so if it is possible can you confirm with the source if he/she never had any previous PD under any category that they forgot about and only have EB2 I PD with mid-april 2008.

- That might be the case. I am not sure. Anyways we should know soon enough.
08-12-2013, 08:57 PM
indiani

I still think that the COD might be March 1st 2013 and VB might be released around noon tomorrow
08-12-2013, 09:53 PM
bitches

Whoot March 1st 2013!!!!!
08-12-2013, 10:23 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by indiani

I still think that the COD might be March 1st 2013 and VB might be released around noon tomorrow

indiani,

Slipping fingers I think!

Everyone would be ecstatic if it were March 1st 2013.

I hope we see the VB tomorrow, but I'm not banking on it.

I think it may be Wednesday, due to the closure of the Consulates around the world recently. I think it is possible some were not able to report their demand figures until today. They were closed August 4 through August 10. It is possible that they had reported Demand before closure, but they may have had other concerns as a priority at that time.
08-12-2013, 10:35 PM
gcpursuit

I saw a post on Ron Gotcher's forum where he says the following to a forum member who has a may 2010 PD :

"It's hard to say with any degree of certainty, but highly likely that you will be current within the next nine months."

I know its just a guess from him but I dont think it is even remotely possible for 2010 PD to get current in FY2014. Thoughts?
08-12-2013, 11:22 PM
indiani

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

indiani,

Slipping fingers I think!

Everyone would be ecstatic if it were March 1st 2013.

I hope we see the VB tomorrow, but I'm not banking on it.

I think it may be Wednesday, due to the closure of the Consulates around the world recently. I think it is possible some were not able to report their demand figures until today. They were closed August 4 through August 10. It is possible that they had reported Demand before closure, but they may have had other concerns as a priority at that time.

spec,
LOL..I didn't realize the mistake until you highlighted it in bold. But I guess most of you ( if not all ) know what I meant.
The pace of approvals and earlier predictions of CO and most of our earlier calculations made me arrive at a conclusion and it is the most conservative one.
Every single text message (including my newly found mate's) disappoints me ( as I am yearning for the CPO text ).
08-12-2013, 11:25 PM
indiani

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcpursuit

I saw a post on Ron Gotcher's forum where he says the following to a forum member who has a may 2010 PD :

"It's hard to say with any degree of certainty, but highly likely that you will be current within the next nine months."

I know its just a guess from him but I dont think it is even remotely possible for 2010 PD to get current in FY2014. Thoughts?

Ron might have pulled out the prediction from thin air, if there is any forum which is any close to scientific analysis its here ( especially spec), unfortunately the data is scant so the range is usually much larger
08-12-2013, 11:38 PM
nishant2200

The last time they did this magic was for dec 2011 bulletin. I refreshed at midnite and voila. I woke up wife to make sure not imagining and then called up Teddy, forgetting his time zone. I woke up another friend then. I went crazy.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

I used to check the Mumbai site http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html

I can't remember the last time they had the dates before the VB was published - it's a long time and never since they published the wrong dates.
08-13-2013, 06:22 AM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by indiani

Ron might have pulled out the prediction from thin air, if there is any forum which is any close to scientific analysis its here ( especially spec), unfortunately the data is scant so the range is usually much larger

I think he pulled it from a rather darker place than thin air, if you know what I mean!
08-13-2013, 06:26 AM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcpursuit

I saw a post on Ron Gotcher's forum where he says the following to a forum member who has a may 2010 PD :

"It's hard to say with any degree of certainty, but highly likely that you will be current within the next nine months."

I know its just a guess from him but I dont think it is even remotely possible for 2010 PD to get current in FY2014. Thoughts?

Not unless about 35k are available to EB2-I in FY2014.

I'll leave you to assess the possibility of that happening.
08-13-2013, 07:00 AM
Pundit Arjun

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

I think he pulled it from a rather darker place than thin air, if you know what I mean!

Hahahahahahaha... Spec, you made me laugh a lot in the morning :). Something I have missed off late.
08-13-2013, 09:35 AM
qesehmk

I don't know about others but I think delayed VB is a good sign.

The reason is - If there was no movement then there was no reason to delay. Just put it out there CO - would you? But if there is delay - probably CO is waiting to carefully measure the movement.

We will see. Good luck guys.
08-13-2013, 09:54 AM
Pedro Gonzales

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

I don't know about others but I think delayed VB is a good sign.

The reason is - If there was no movement then there was no reason to delay. Just put it out there CO - would you? But if there is delay - probably CO is waiting to carefully measure the movement.

We will see. Good luck guys.

I agree with that assessment. He is trying to perfectly space the movement so that as few folks are left stranded as possible when the visas run out in late September. That however rules out a radical movement, which is probably a good thing, even though it probably delays my GC.
08-13-2013, 10:05 AM
desitiger

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

I don't know about others but I think delayed VB is a good sign.

The reason is - If there was no movement then there was no reason to delay. Just put it out there CO - would you? But if there is delay - probably CO is waiting to carefully measure the movement.

We will see. Good luck guys.

I completely agree with you. More they delay it better it might be but it could very well be possible that the final numbers justify no movement. Well, we all are at the mercy if these idiots and have to wait for the information to come out.
08-13-2013, 10:15 AM
erikbond101

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

I don't know about others but I think delayed VB is a good sign.

The reason is - If there was no movement then there was no reason to delay. Just put it out there CO - would you? But if there is delay - probably CO is waiting to carefully measure the movement.

We will see. Good luck guys.

I agree and I hope you are correct. Last time when VB was delayed in June 2011, COD for EB2I moved for 3 months and then in July 2011 VB, COD moved another 5 months.
08-13-2013, 10:20 AM
Pedro Gonzales

Quote:

Originally Posted by erikbond101

I agree and I hope you are correct. Last time when VB was delayed in June 2011, COD for EB2I moved for 3 months and then in July 2011 VB, COD moved another 5 months.

I'd be okay if he split the difference this time and moved it forward by 4 months. May 1, 2008 would do very well for me.
08-13-2013, 10:24 AM
vizcard

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales

I'd be okay if he split the difference this time and moved it forward by 4 months. May 1, 2008 would do very well for me.

I doubt it would go to May 1 ... best case 4/22. :P
08-13-2013, 10:59 AM
seattlet

As others have mentioned it might be due to consulates closing in many countries and that impacts CO getting good idea for FB category.
I dont believe consulates closing will affect Eb1,2,3 forecast since the % of cases impacted by them is low. Consulates were mostly closed
in countries where there is not much employment based demand.

Quote:

Originally Posted by erikbond101

I agree and I hope you are correct. Last time when VB was delayed in June 2011, COD for EB2I moved for 3 months and then in July 2011 VB, COD moved another 5 months.
08-13-2013, 12:01 PM
druvraj

Was a bulletin (Dec 2011 I think) came out on on Nov 18 if my memory serves me right. Also later the date lesser congressional inquiries and less pressure for USICS officials to reply. Just my 2 cents. I agree with Q that delaying means CO or whoever is thinking of moving dates ahead. The suspense continues...
08-13-2013, 12:10 PM
Pedro Gonzales

Dec 2011 VB was prepared on the 8th of Nov and the Jan 2012 VB was prepared on the 8th of December, so if either of those was released on the 18th, they were sitting on it for 10 full days. I don't know how they could justify that.
08-13-2013, 12:13 PM
GCKnowHow

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales

..... I don't know how they could justify that.

Sadly they don't have to.
08-13-2013, 12:54 PM
druvraj

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales

Dec 2011 VB was prepared on the 8th of Nov and the Jan 2012 VB was prepared on the 8th of December, so if either of those was released on the 18th, they were sitting on it for 10 full days. I don't know how they could justify that.

I am not too sure if it was released on Nov 18 but for argument purposes if it was then we should see the VB coming out on Aug 16 at the latest. I sincerely hope it is today or at the most tomorrow.
08-13-2013, 01:00 PM
eb2visa

September bulletin is out

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_6050.html

EB2I- 15JUN08

EMPLOYMENT-based:

SECOND:

India: This cut-off date has been advanced significantly more than originally expected, based on the projection that there would be “otherwise unused” numbers under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit. This is the result of a decrease in Employment First preference number use, and a similar decrease in Employment Second preference demand for most other countries during the past two months. It is expected that such movement will generate a very significant amount of new India demand during the coming months.

THIRD:

The Employment-based Third preference cut-off date for most countries was advanced at an extremely rapid pace in April through July in an effort to generate demand. Historically such movements have resulted in a dramatic increase in applicant demand for numbers within a few months. At this time there is no indication that the expected increase is materializing or will do so in the near future. This has resulted in significant movements in the September cut-off for all countries.

It is unlikely that there will be any forward movement of most Employment-based cut-off dates during the next couple of months. In addition, a sudden surge in demand could require the retrogression of a cut-off date at any time. Such action would be required if it appears that such number use could impact visa availability under the FY-2014 annual limits.

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