EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

I accept the downgrades will happen, it may be harder now, may become easier in future, but still I don't think the downgrade rate will beat the EB3India visa supply rate in coming years. So, ultimately it leads to a more favorable cutoff date for EB3I but NOT the same for EB2I.
All I'm saying is EB2I cutoff dates will never ever catch-up with EB3I cutoff dates in next 5 years.

Let me put it in a different way.. we saw in the last 10 years the EB2I had always a more favorable cutoff date compared to EB3I and the upgrades had a net effect of pulling the EB2I cutoff dates backwards.
Now in the next 10 years what we see is the opposite to it, EB3I cutoff dates will be always have more favorable dates than compared to EB2I and the downgrades will have a net effect of pulling the EB2I cutoff dates but this time it will be in forward direction but these dates will not become equal as most of us thinking.

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Interesting prediction. I am most likely to say next 2 yrs than 10 yrs, for the simple reason that a lot of EB2 folks are upgrades from EB3, having both EB2 and EB3 PERM's. For them to downgrade will take far less time than it took for them to upgrade.

Those who have already filed AOS in EB2, may not be motivated to downgrade, but it is a different story for those who have not filed AOS. ALL these folks will now file in EB3, rather will already have filed in EB3 by the end of this month. For > April 2010 PD's also, everyone who has an EB3 Perm will immediately file AOS as soon as they become current. Quite a few of those who don't have an EB3 Perm will already have applied for PERM in EB3, especially if they work for desi consulting companies.

Again, if the Per Country limit is removed, then all predictions go for a toss.

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Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

Will hopefully not try not to hijack this prediction thread further! Just a mix of tourist and business visas traveling for pleasure and work (me - oil & gas industry, wife - professor in engineering). Obviously sample size in each place may not have been sufficient but was enough to get a feel for different places. Even within the US, we try to visit and stay in different cities for Spring Break, Summer Break and Winter Break to experience the different cuisines, notable places and other things to do in different parts of the country.

My suggestion to everyone is this: Don't let the GC process drag you down. If I had spent every day worrying about it, I would have done that for 9+ yrs now and missed out on the prime of life and still be in the same situation as now. I am only focusing on it now since it's reasonably close to make some decisions and take action. I am glad I had a few older friends who counseled me about it in the very beginning.

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I completely agree with you mate! And looks like we have a lot in common :)

Been in and out of USA several times and got to spend time in Sweden, Switzerland and Canada in between. Its amazing to explore the nuances of different places as a resident rather than a tourist. Still have Australia and NZ in my wish list.. will make it some day. However, with that being said, there's no country like US of A when it comes to openness, inclusiveness (Hey! you also have to reach out and talk to Americans instead of just huddling with your desi groups) and ease of life.

Spending time fretting about whats not in our hands is absolutely useless. Taking pleasures in simple things of life like watching kids grow, a backyard bbq with friends with cold beer etc.... is what makes it all worth. Even if something goes unexpected with US stint... my India is always there :)

Here is the 2018 December DOS data.

	China	India	Mexico	Philippines	South Korea	Vietnam	ROW-SK-VET	Total
EB1	40	14	01	00	10	00	61	126
EB2	12	03	01	21	122	02	103	264
EB3	025	105	029	356	051	000	525	1091
EB4	00	15	00	04	00	01	142	161
EB5	413	046	004	002	029	033	171	698
Total	490	183	035	383	212	035	1002	2340

My I-485 (Priority date July 2007 EB-3 India) application was applied concurrently along with I-140 amendment request since employer was acquired. Both cases are currently in Texas since April 2018. Fingerprints were taken in August 2018 and received EAD/AP combo cards for primary and dependent in September. I-140 finally got approved after 9 months this morning.

Now that the I-140 is approved is there anything I can do from my end, such as - infopass appointment and/or involving local congressman to gain traction on my 485 application? My 485 application currently states Finger print review completed and we still need to be scheduled for the interview.

Folks please advise as I am getting close to the 12 month mark on medicals and hope not having to repeat them again. The wait since July 2007 has been excruciatingly long and painful so would really appreciate any insight you may have.

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Originally Posted by maverick23

My I-485 (Priority date July 2007 EB-3 India) application was applied concurrently along with I-140 amendment request since employer was acquired. Both cases are currently in Texas since April 2018. Fingerprints were taken in August 2018 and received EAD/AP combo cards for primary and dependent in September. I-140 finally got approved after 9 months this morning.

Now that the I-140 is approved is there anything I can do from my end, such as - infopass appointment and/or involving local congressman to gain traction on my 485 application? My 485 application currently states Finger print review completed and we still need to be scheduled for the interview.

Folks please advise as I am getting close to the 12 month mark on medicals and hope not having to repeat them again. The wait since July 2007 has been excruciatingly long and painful so would really appreciate any insight you may have.

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Congrats! You are almost there. Just hang in there till they send you interview date and you should be getting your GC soon. Just a question, did you not get a chance to use Premium processing?

Does anyone has latest perm approval trend? I believe there were less perms approved in November and December of last year. I hope to see it continue going fwd.

Does anyone know if H2 Farm workers results into more perm approval ? Just curious

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Originally Posted by newyorker123

When you guys say that EB3 could get to 2012/3 in next few years, its filing dates you are talking about right ?
Where would the final dates be ?

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I expect filing dates to be within a year max for Eb3

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Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

Congrats! You are almost there. Just hang in there till they send you interview date and you should be getting your GC soon. Just a question, did you not get a chance to use Premium processing?

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I did not use premium processing as my lawyer said that I could not avail the premium route since the original PERM did not accompany the I-140 amendment application. I had to raise two SRs one in November and second in January.

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Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

Interesting prediction. I am most likely to say next 2 yrs than 10 yrs, for the simple reason that a lot of EB2 folks are upgrades from EB3, having both EB2 and EB3 PERM's. For them to downgrade will take far less time than it took for them to upgrade.

Those who have already filed AOS in EB2, may not be motivated to downgrade, but it is a different story for those who have not filed AOS. ALL these folks will now file in EB3, rather will already have filed in EB3 by the end of this month. For > April 2010 PD's also, everyone who has an EB3 Perm will immediately file AOS as soon as they become current. Quite a few of those who don't have an EB3 Perm will already have applied for PERM in EB3, especially if they work for desi consulting companies.

Again, if the Per Country limit is removed, then all predictions go for a toss.

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People who upgraded from EB3 to EB2 do not need to do anything. EB3 Perm can be used to file . But if people have moved to different employers , then EB3 employer has to sponsor again
People who havent received EAD will all instantly downgrade to EB3 with concurrent filing as H1B extensions are given in months now a days

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Originally Posted by AceMan

I expect filing dates to be within a year max for Eb3

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Not sure I understand. Can you please explain ?

Esteemed Gurus, can anyone please tell me how many Indians/Chinese waiting for GC, who had their I140 approved by 2013 end ?
Maybe just a rough idea ?
Trying to figure out number of people whose I140 has been approved more than 5 years back, and are waiting

Has anybody's I-140 been revoked by a previous employer? If yes,
does it show as revoked in uscis case status page?

I have applied for I-485 concurrently with I-140 just before Christmas of 2018, I have not received the biometrics appointment letter so far. Many colleagues who filed along with me received it last week, is there a general timeline for issuing biometrics appointment letter? There a one or two others like me who are yet to receive it as well, so was wondering if it is normal. I received the I-485 receipt notice last week.

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Originally Posted by kb2013

Has anybody's I-140 been revoked by a previous employer? If yes,
does it show as revoked in uscis case status page?

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My I-140 was revoked by my previous employer and I got a NOID from USCIS. I hired Murthy and responded to NOID. The rule is that the Employer cannot revoke I-140 after 180 days. I remember the status of my I-485 showing status as NOID, but don't remember what status my I-140 had.

Have a question. I am a physician. My PD is May, 2011 in EB2 India. My employer has given a go ahead to downgrade to EB3 as long as I bear the cost of downgrading. My lawyer is willing to do downgrade also from EB2 to EB3.

Do you guys recommend filing for downgrade as early as possible or do I have the luxury of waiting for 6-7 months and then decide based on the PD movement in visa bulletin? Would you recommend concurrent filing in EB3 instead of downgrading? What is the time do you think approximately to reach the date of May, 2011 under EB3?

I am not a numbers guy and don't have the capability to crunch numbers and data as some of you do. So I would appreciate some input based on your calculations and predictions.

Thanks in advance.

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Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes

Have a question. I am a physician. My PD is May, 2011 in EB2 India. My employer has given a go ahead to downgrade to EB3 as long as I bear the cost of downgrading. My lawyer is willing to do downgrade also from EB2 to EB3.

Do you guys recommend filing for downgrade as early as possible or do I have the luxury of waiting for 6-7 months and then decide based on the PD movement in visa bulletin? Would you recommend concurrent filing in EB3 instead of downgrading? What is the time do you think approximately to reach the date of May, 2011 under EB3?

I am not a numbers guy and don't have the capability to crunch numbers and data as some of you do. So I would appreciate some input based on your calculations and predictions.

Thanks in advance.

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Can one of the guru's publish a simple table like bellow, it would help so many of us -

---------------EB3 FAD----------------EB3 FD
2019 Sep-----XXXXXXX--------------XXXXXXX
2020 Sep-----XXXXXXX--------------XXXXXXX
2021 Sep-----XXXXXXX--------------XXXXXXX
2022 Sep-----XXXXXXX--------------XXXXXXX
2023 Sep-----XXXXXXX--------------XXXXXXX

Aceman, excaliber, YT ... call out all of you guys ..

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Originally Posted by abcx13

Why? What is the harm if with the same company using the same PERM? Then you can file I485 using either EB2 or EB3 depending on whichever category becomes available first, no?

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Originally Posted by AceMan

EB2 is exceptional, Eb3 is skilled. When you downgrade to EB3 on the same PERM used for EB2, you are notifying USCIS that PERM is last being used for a skilled position.
You are killing your EB2 petition by filing for EB3 - 140 when dates are not even current. That would be the harm you are doing to yourself.

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I don't understand why the EB2 petition would be killed. Surely a job that requires a Masters also requires a Bachelor's and you can be processed in the lower category. It doesn't devalue the PERM to a less skilled position as far as I can tell because the job still requires the Masters?

There are around 34K original petitions between May 2010- June 2011 ( Eb2+Eb3 combined)

I think EB3 I will be FAD May-Jul 2010 by September 2019. Then slowly we might see the downgrade porting starts. EB3 I might not have a ton of petitions because once EB2-I went June 2011 current for few days which was later revoked.

To clear EB2-I backlog until April 2010 will take atleast 2.5-3 years at this pace, however not a lot will downgrade as they already have I-485 and frankly its not advisable.

I think are around 34K petitions ( EB2+EB3, original which translates nearly 68K total petitions). So lets assume that EB2-I quota will still be clearing backlog. So it might take around 6-7 years to clear June 2011 (Both EB2 and EB3)

Is my understanding correct ? Out of 34K petitions how many could be in (Duplicate, people moved out of US etc).

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Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

My I-140 was revoked by my previous employer and I got a NOID from USCIS. I hired Murthy and responded to NOID. The rule is that the Employer cannot revoke I-140 after 180 days. I remember the status of my I-485 showing status as NOID, but don't remember what status my I-140 had.

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Thanks! Looks like employers will have no need to revoke and will not likely put the effort to revoke after 180 days.

https://www.litwinlaw.com/blog/2016/...approval.shtml

So, it appears that, if the previous I-140 position is still available, one can resume green card process with previous employer anytime.
Exploring options if my EB2 to EB3 downgrade does not go fine. The lawyers are trying to discourage and scare me at each step.

My priority date is December 2009 and my I-485 was filed concurrently with I-140 just before Christmas of 2018. I have received the I-485 receipt notice last week, but yet to receive the biometrics appointment letter. Many of my colleagues who filed with me (on the same date) have received biometrics last week, is this wait time normal in my case? Please suggest.

My priority date is December 2009 and my I-485 was filed concurrently with I-140 just before Christmas of 2018. I have received the I-485 receipt notice last week, but yet to receive the biometrics appointment letter. Many of my colleagues who filed with me (on the same date) have received biometrics last week, is this wait time normal in my case? Please suggest.

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Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes

Have a question. I am a physician. My PD is May, 2011 in EB2 India. My employer has given a go ahead to downgrade to EB3 as long as I bear the cost of downgrading. My lawyer is willing to do downgrade also from EB2 to EB3.

Do you guys recommend filing for downgrade as early as possible or do I have the luxury of waiting for 6-7 months and then decide based on the PD movement in visa bulletin? Would you recommend concurrent filing in EB3 instead of downgrading? What is the time do you think approximately to reach the date of May, 2011 under EB3?

I am not a numbers guy and don't have the capability to crunch numbers and data as some of you do. So I would appreciate some input based on your calculations and predictions.

Thanks in advance.

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Well I think you have enough time on hand to wait for this. It is not reaching 2011 for EB3 for another year and s half. The biggest variable is hindrances to downporting.
I imagine eb2 consistently behind by 6 months and no more when the dust settles.

I have EB3 August 2010 date and has been with same employer till now, never ported. Now am in a situation where I am almost close to get an offer from a company I want to be in. New employer is not sure of when they start GC process and which category. HR didn’t know any immigration details to start with. How confident that we see Aug 2010 for FD this year. This is tough situation for me to make a decision.. waited long but things turned now for good or bad. I don’t want to be in EB2 kind fiasco (dates retrogressed like in past) if I continue same job or start new GC without knowing when and what... I appreciate if you can help in providing your visibility about EB3 FD and FAD expectation.. TIA

When changing job on EAD, what pre-cautions should be taken care. My case is from 2009 and a lot of technologies are changed in last 10 years.... plus my role/salary has also changed... I am trying to find out how would it be possible to change the job if a good offer comes on way.

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Originally Posted by EB22010Dec

Can one of the guru's publish a simple table like bellow, it would help so many of us -

---------------EB3 FAD----------------EB3 FD
2019 Sep-----Apr 2010--------------XXXXXXX
2020 Sep-----Aug 2010--------------XXXXXXX (Downgrade starts and it will move slowly)
2021 Sep-----Dec 2010--------------XXXXXXX (by Sep 2021 most likely EB2- April 10 will get cleared)
2022 Sep-----Apr 2011------------ XXXXXXX
2023 Sep---- Aug 2011------------XXXXXXX


Aceman, excaliber, YT ... call out all of you guys ..

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Sorry, I was not asked but still putting my thoughts

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Originally Posted by EB22010Dec

Can one of the guru's publish a simple table like bellow, it would help so many of us -

---------------EB3 FAD----------------EB3 FD
2019 Sep-----XXXXXXX--------------XXXXXXX
2020 Sep-----XXXXXXX--------------XXXXXXX
2021 Sep-----XXXXXXX--------------XXXXXXX
2022 Sep-----XXXXXXX--------------XXXXXXX
2023 Sep-----XXXXXXX--------------XXXXXXX

Aceman, excaliber, YT ... call out all of you guys ..

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It is nearly impossible to predict so far out. Even if one estimates EB2 numbers who can downport, the spillover numbers for both EB2 and EB3 cannot be predicted.

EB3 FD won't change any more this year as demand is already captured, and FAD would go upto end of 2009. One can expect some downport pressure from late 2009 EB2s even if they have EADs. And I expect a very high percentage of EB3s who ported initially to downport too. So date would go into 2010 but then retrogress back to 2009.

And from next year EB3 FAD would move by about 4-5 months per year - primarily due to downporting pressure from EB2. That's unless downporting faces some major hurdles like adverse decisions by USCIS. If not EB2 guys from 2010 onwards are not going to wait 3-4 years for their date to get current. Barring USCIS decisions, I expect EB2 guys to get around their hurdles with employers or lawyers which may prevent them to downport.

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Originally Posted by excalibur123

It is nearly impossible to predict so far out. Even if one estimates EB2 numbers who can downport, the spillover numbers for both EB2 and EB3 cannot be predicted.

EB3 FD won't change any more this year as demand is already captured, and FAD would go upto end of 2009. One can expect some downport pressure from late 2009 EB2s even if they have EADs. And I expect a very high percentage of EB3s who ported initially to downport too. So date would go into 2010 but then retrogress back to 2009.

And from next year EB3 FAD would move by about 4-5 months per year - primarily due to downporting pressure from EB2. That's unless downporting faces some major hurdles like adverse decisions by USCIS. If not EB2 guys from 2010 onwards are not going to wait 3-4 years for their date to get current. Barring USCIS decisions, I expect EB2 guys to get around their hurdles with employers or lawyers which may prevent them to downport.

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FD will change in either March or April for sure. It’s just USCIS won’t honor it.

Your prediction of Dec 2009 is an extremely pessimistic opinion. CO already mentioned EB3 ROW demand is light. So it will go well beyond Dec 2009 this FY.

I like the prediction of Sanjeev. Except that in Sept 2020 FAD will reach Oct 2010 and in Sept 2021 it will reach Feb 2011.

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Originally Posted by AceMan

I expect filing dates to be within a year max for Eb3

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Hi Aceman
Need your advice on my situation. I will try to keep it brief, but it is complicated :-). I am in my 12th year of H1-B. Joined employer A in 2008. Got I-140 in EB3 followed by Eb2 approved with a PD of August 1, 2010. Joined employer B, recently moved to employer C. I have one more I-140 approved with employer B but I do not intend to go back to them if at all in case the date becomes current for many reasons. Thankfully my original employer, A is supportive and willing to process my GC further whenever the date become current. Now my questions on which I really need your valuable advice/feedback are as below:
1. Since EB3 dates are moving faster, I plan to utilize my first I-140 approval in EB3. My past employer is still holding on to it and is ready to process it further for me. Does this plan sounds OK, or are there any potential issues?
2. Does that employer need to have a project in hand with an end client to show on paper that he can afford to hire me, it just his intention is enough? Because if a new project is required, I can manage that. I can just go through him for my ongoing project.
3. What other 'things' I need to take care of for this if any
4. And here is the most important question I have for you (it is OK if you want to skip any of the above questions for time/length purpose. As per CO, EB3 final action dates will move 3 months each for next 3 months. Which means, by May-19, dates will move to 17-Jan-10. So the question is when will I be able to apply for EAD/AP? I.e. when will filing date pass the PD of 1/8/2010 and DHS will be ready to accept filing dates? Will really help if you can shade some light on this. No one is paying much attention to FD because mostly people have EAD/AP, but I am desperately looking forward to reach that milestone.

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Originally Posted by AceMan

I expect filing dates to be within a year max for Eb3

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Hi Aceman
Need your advice on my situation. I will try to keep it brief, but it is complicated :-). I am in my 12th year of H1-B. Joined employer A in 2008. Got I-140 in EB3 followed by Eb2 approved with a PD of August 1, 2010. Joined employer B, recently moved to employer C. I have one more I-140 approved with employer B but I do not intend to go back to them if at all in case the date becomes current for many reasons. Thankfully my original employer, A is supportive and willing to process my GC further whenever the date become current. Now my questions on which I really need your valuable advice/feedback are as below:
1. Since EB3 dates are moving faster, I plan to utilize my first I-140 approval in EB3. My past employer is still holding on to it and is ready to process it further for me. Does this plan sounds OK, or are there any potential issues?
2. Does that employer need to have a project in hand with an end client to show on paper that he can afford to hire me, it just his intention is enough? Because if a new project is required, I can manage that. I can just go through him for my ongoing project.
3. What other 'things' I need to take care of for this if any
4. And here is the most important question I have for you (it is OK if you want to skip any of the above questions for time/length purpose. As per CO, EB3 final action dates will move 3 months each for next 3 months. Which means, by May-19, dates will move to 17-Jan-10. So the question is when will I be able to apply for EAD/AP? I.e. when will filing date pass the PD of 1/8/2010 and DHS will be ready to accept filing dates? Will really help if you can shade some light on this. No one is paying much attention to FD because mostly people have EAD/AP, but I am desperately looking forward to reach that milestone.

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Originally Posted by EB32010

FD will change in either March or April for sure. It’s just USCIS won’t honor it.

Your prediction of Dec 2009 is an extremely pessimistic opinion. CO already mentioned EB3 ROW demand is light. So it will go well beyond Dec 2009 this FY.

I like the prediction of Sanjeev. Except that in Sept 2020 FAD will reach Oct 2010 and in Sept 2021 it will reach Feb 2011.

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You can call it whatever - I just go by common sense. I predict based on what i would do if I were in others shoes. If I were an EB2 from late 2009 onwards I would be thinking ALL the time EVERYDAY as to how I can downport and end this nightmare.

Just take a look at how relentless was porting from eb3 to eb2. EB2 was stuck in 2008 for 6 years - even when EB3s had EADs till Jul 2007.

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Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes

Have a question. I am a physician. My PD is May, 2011 in EB2 India. My employer has given a go ahead to downgrade to EB3 as long as I bear the cost of downgrading. My lawyer is willing to do downgrade also from EB2 to EB3.

Do you guys recommend filing for downgrade as early as possible or do I have the luxury of waiting for 6-7 months and then decide based on the PD movement in visa bulletin? Would you recommend concurrent filing in EB3 instead of downgrading? What is the time do you think approximately to reach the date of May, 2011 under EB3?

I am not a numbers guy and don't have the capability to crunch numbers and data as some of you do. So I would appreciate some input based on your calculations and predictions.

Thanks in advance.

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If the modus operandi is to file a fresh EB3 PERM, then you might as well start immediately. However if it is a downgrade without a new PERM, then you can wait a few months to see the trend.

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Originally Posted by excalibur123

You can call it whatever - I just go by common sense. I predict based on what i would do if I were in others shoes. If I were an EB2 from late 2009 onwards I would be thinking ALL the time EVERYDAY as to how I can downport and end this nightmare.

Just take a look at how relentless was porting from eb3 to eb2. EB2 was stuck in 2008 for 6 years - even when EB3s had EADs till Jul 2007.

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At the end of the day we all are speculating:). No one knows how exactly things will shape up. That been said, you said it’s common sense to end up at Dec 2009 this FY. But the numbers simply doesn’t match the hypothesis. EB3 is widely expected to get 6k this FY. And I don’t think there are 6k folks waiting for AOS in EB3 until Dec 2009. That’s why I said it will go beyond 2009 this FY. CO already mentioned EB3 ROW demand is light. If that trend continue, then EB3 might even get 8-10k. I will pleasantly surprised if that happens though.

Also you have mentioned that folks with EAD will also think of downgrade. I know many friends who are in this category and they don’t even think for a second to downgrade. And that makes sense for them for variety of reasons. Even if there are some who think to downgrade, it’s going to be less than 5%. I am absolutely positive about it.

I understand and respect your opinion. We will just agree to disagree :)

You admins ... may I know why my post is not allowed... I asked an opinion on dates, why is it not posted? This happened in past and you are doing it again?

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Originally Posted by EB32010

At the end of the day we all are speculating:). No one knows how exactly things will shape up. That been said, you said it’s common sense to end up at Dec 2009 this FY. But the numbers simply doesn’t match the hypothesis. EB3 is widely expected to get 6k this FY. And I don’t think there are 6k folks waiting for AOS in EB3 until Dec 2009. That’s why I said it will go beyond 2009 this FY. CO already mentioned EB3 ROW demand is light. If that trend continue, then EB3 might even get 8-10k. I will pleasantly surprised if that happens though.

Also you have mentioned that folks with EAD will also think of downgrade. I know many friends who are in this category and they don’t even think for a second to downgrade. And that makes sense for them for variety of reasons. Even if there are some who think to downgrade, it’s going to be less than 5%. I am absolutely positive about it.

I understand and respect your opinion. We will just agree to disagree :)

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I don't think most of the people in EB2I with EAD go for downgrade. Checked with some guys and they are thinking that high downgrade trend will be advantage for them and not sure this will result struck in the EB3I queue, which will end up even more trouble rather than waiting 2 to 3 years.

To what date in 2009 eb3 might retrogress to?

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Originally Posted by EB32010

At the end of the day we all are speculating:). No one knows how exactly things will shape up. That been said, you said it’s common sense to end up at Dec 2009 this FY. But the numbers simply doesn’t match the hypothesis. EB3 is widely expected to get 6k this FY. And I don’t think there are 6k folks waiting for AOS in EB3 until Dec 2009. That’s why I said it will go beyond 2009 this FY. CO already mentioned EB3 ROW demand is light. If that trend continue, then EB3 might even get 8-10k. I will pleasantly surprised if that happens though.

Also you have mentioned that folks with EAD will also think of downgrade. I know many friends who are in this category and they don’t even think for a second to downgrade. And that makes sense for them for variety of reasons. Even if there are some who think to downgrade, it’s going to be less than 5%. I am absolutely positive about it.

I understand and respect your opinion. We will just agree to disagree :)

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Philippines is not current yet, and they have the first right, followed by South Korea on EB3. I wish we get 10 K for this year, but will take anything more than 7K as a real positive. I am repeating downgraders are not going to impact EB3 in FY 2019. If we are getting numbers beyond that, the last quarter of FY 19 will see a push forward beyond May 2010.

While, I understand my friend Excalibur's view point, like you I have to disagree his view here purely based on the numbers. I know even he wishes his numbers to be wrong.

---------------EB3 FAD----------------EB3 FD
2019 Sep-----1st May, 2010--------------XXXXXXX
2020 Sep-----1st Jan, 2012--------------XXXXXXX
2021 Sep-----1st Jan 2014--------------XXXXXXX
2022 Sep-----2015--------------XXXXXXX
2023 Sep-----2016--------------XXXXXXX

After 2022, I expect the forward movement of 1 year for every calendar year

@Aceman no such table to us EB2 guys? is it even possible to predict?

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Originally Posted by AceMan

Philippines is not current yet, and they have the first right, followed by South Korea on EB3. I wish we get 10 K for this year, but will take anything more than 7K as a real positive. I am repeating downgraders are not going to impact EB3 in FY 2019. If we are getting numbers beyond that, the last quarter of FY 19 will see a push forward beyond May 2010.

While, I understand my friend Excalibur's view point, like you I have to disagree his view here purely based on the numbers. I know even he wishes his numbers to be wrong.

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I wish I am wrong too .. :)

But I studied the EB3->EB2 porting which happened from 2012-18 in great detail. I understand motivations of people who stare at long wait, and that even a small percentage means big numbers. Yes some of them would be willing to wait another 2 years, and some would be stuck due to lack of support from employers, but even a small percentage of downporters can mean big numbers.

I expect 8K EB3 = going to 4K EB3 2009 + 2K to carry over from FY 2018 + 2K going to EB2 2009 downporters

Another way to look at this is EB3 FD has stopped at Apr 2010 which implies the demand has been captured for this year. And this is without taking into account any downporting that would happen when FADs start crossing for each of the EB2s and they can do concurrent filing for downporting. CO cannot have a visibility on something like that. So the date is likely to end up much before Apr 2010.

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Originally Posted by excalibur123

I wish I am wrong too .. :)

But I studied the EB3->EB2 porting which happened from 2012-18 in great detail. I understand motivations of people who stare at long wait, and that even a small percentage means big numbers. Yes some of them would be willing to wait another 2 years, and some would be stuck due to lack of support from employers, but even a small percentage of downporters can mean big numbers.

I expect 8K EB3 = going to 4K EB3 2009 + 2K to carry over from FY 2018 + 2K going to EB2 2009 downporters

Another way to look at this is EB3 FD has stopped at Apr 2010 which implies the demand has been captured for this year. And this is without taking into account any downporting that would happen when FADs start crossing for each of the EB2s and they can do concurrent filing for downporting. CO cannot have a visibility on something like that. So the date is likely to end up much before Apr 2010.

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The only difference between then and now is - now if they port and apply for 485, they have to go to interview. Where as if they stay in the same queue, they will get GC eventually.