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From the limited data I have, I see the following:Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Sep 2012 bulletin was released on Mon, Aug 13, 2012
Oct 2012 bulletin was released on Mon, Sep 10, 2012
Mar 2013 bulletin was released on Mon, Feb 11, 2013
Apr 2013 bulletin was released on Mon, Mar 11, 2013
Me too even called up the 202 # where they said it will change from current bulletin to coming soon message if it is getting released today so looks it will not come out today also.Quote:
Originally Posted by desitiger
So, does the delay augur well for the hopeful's or not?Quote:
Originally Posted by wolverine82
Good god! So there is hope you say!Quote:
Originally Posted by rferni
This question might 've been already answered or answered over & over but what was the consensus figure on how much spillover for EB-2 was expected for this FY & how much of it might be given for Sep '13?
That I dont know ... I present the data, not the interpretation ... :)Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
The other thing I can tell historically is that when the release date has spilled into the third calendar week of the month, it has never gone past Monday - if it does this time, it would be a first.
Also, August 2013 bulletin was released on 07/09 at 5:50 PM EDT - so there's plenty of time left...
With the exception of 2007, every other Sept VB was released before the 10th of August.Quote:
Originally Posted by rferni
Interesting ... clearly we are looking at different sources of data. I'll concede yours is probably better because mine was manual ... something i spent digging up online when i had many hours to spare on Friday. Thanks for corroborating my point with additional data.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales
I disagree with that statement. June 2011 bulletin was released on May 11, 2011.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Pedro,Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales
That is not 100% reliable.
For instance, the August 2013 VB has a date of July 8, 2013 which is probably when it was compiled, but the August 2013 VB was not released until July 9, 2013.
PS:- Someone on Trackitt made the fair point that the recent Embassy/Consulate closures may have pushed the date back, since they would not have been able to report Demand until they were re-opened.
No my data was wrong, as I quickly confirmed by looking up this thread to see when the August bulletin was released. It looks like what I have is the date the VB was prepared, which, in many cases, was not the date that it was released.Quote:
Originally Posted by rferni
Here's what I have based on the timing of when the DOS visa bulletin page was updated:Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales
Bulletin for Month of-----Date Released-----Day of Week
Aug-13-----9-Jul-13----- Tue
Jul-13-----7-Jun-13-----Fri
Jun-13-----10-May-13-----Fri
May-13-----10-Apr-13-----Wed
Apr-13-----11-Mar-13-----Mon
Mar-13-----11-Feb-13-----Mon
Feb-13-----9-Jan-13-----Wed
Jan-13-----11-Dec-12-----Tue
Dec-12-----11/7/2012-----Wed
Nov-12-----10/12/2012-----Fri
Oct-12-----9/10/2012-----Mon
Sep-12-----8/13/2012-----Mon
Exactly what I found out upon further research.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
But that wouldn't be a September VB, now, would it?Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
On 3 of those days, they released the VB on the day they prepared it. On 7 they released it on the next business day. But the interesting ones were the September and November 2012 bulletins, where they released it 2 and 3 work days after they had prepared it. No holidays around that time, and neither VB had any surprising revelation, so not sure why they decided to hold off.Quote:
Originally Posted by rferni
Assuming those two were the exceptions and that they release the VB within a day of preparation in the vast majority of the cases, the VBs were prepared on the 12th or 13th only 6 times out of 136 and never later than then. Also, those VBs that were prepared that late resulted in forward movement twice, retrogression twice and no movement twice. So directionally, i can't read anything into it.
Interestingly, 4 of the late releases centered around the events of summer 2007. These were the All-Current declaration of the July 2007 VB, the Unavailable of the August 2007, the movement back to Apr 2004 (where the EB2I PD had been prior to the fiasco) in September 2007 and the retrogression to Jan 2002 in December 2007.
it would be worthwhile to add your inference or guess - eitherway.
If this data is true - it looks like first full friday or first half of second full week is the range of VB.Quote:
Originally Posted by rferni
Q,Spec,
Would like to know if you are still optimistic about movement in Sep bulletin.
My guess is no movement to Feb 2008 at the max. No data or any info to support.
Eagerly waiting for Wednesday....
Hi guys,
I have good information that EB2-I will move beyond April 2008 as I came to know of a Consular Processing interview already scheduled for mid April 2008 priority date.
When is the CP interview and when was the interview scheduled?Quote:
Originally Posted by inspired_p
That is good to know. I always wondered Consular Processing might have best hints about cutoff dates well in advance because Consulates are supposed to intimate the applicant around 60-90 days before when they think the PD may become current. That being said, EB-2 I is beyond any logical reasoning now. They themselves had to wait until the very last 60 days to determine and allocate the spillovers. I doubt the consulates are in a position to notify the candidates because CO's office itself may not have a clue until the very last moment. And then by the time it really becomes current, only a month is left before which next fiscal year starts and the dates have to be moved back.Quote:
Originally Posted by inspired_p
Hope what you said is true, but tough to believe because I myself filed I-824 and had the case transferred to Consular Processing last year. I have a PD of March 18, 2008. I am back in US now and would like to take the route of I-485 now, but still, technically my address in India would have been notified by now if what you said applies to my case.
The case you are referring to, when is the interview scheduled for? Is that a continuation of something that was started last year? Or a fresh case that started this year?
Quote:
Originally Posted by axialtilt
As far as i know - it is fresh case , he never filed I-485 till now and he was intimated some 2 weeks back and interview is first or second week of September.
Thanks & Regards
Thanks for sharing. If the source of the information is true, it is indeed positive news for many waiting. By tomorrow this time we may have the VB, until that time anxiety continues..Quote:
Originally Posted by inspired_p
inspired_p,Quote:
Originally Posted by inspired_p
Let me assure you, I don't doubt you. Is it possible the person has an earlier PD from a previous I-140?
I can't see how an interview date for a PD of mid April 2008 under EB2-I can possibly have been set up yet, since CO has not yet determined the Cut Off Dates.
The process is for the DOS to allocate the visas to Consulates for applicants who will be Current at the time the VB is published. Only then can the interview date be set up, because before then, the Consulate does not know that they have a visa available for that applicant.
Certainly, Packet 4 (or whatever it is called now) is sent to the applicant for completion and return ahead of when dates might become Current in the near future.Quote:
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immi...ation%20of.pdf
1. HOW THE SYSTEM OPERATES:
At the beginning of each month, the Visa Office (VO) receives a report from each consular post listing totals of documentarily qualified immigrant visa applicants in categories subject to numerical limitation. Cases are grouped by foreign state chargeability/preference/priority date.
No names are reported. During the first week of each month, this documentarily qualified demand is tabulated.
VO subdivides the annual preference and foreign state limitations specified by the INA into monthly allotments. The totals of documentarily qualified applicants which have been reported to VO, are compared each month with the numbers available for the next regular allotment. The determination of how many numbers are available requires consideration of several of variables, including: past number use; estimates of future number use and return rates; and estimates of Citizenship and Immigration Service demand based on cut-off date movements. Once this is done, the cut-off dates are established and numbers are allocated to reported applicants in order of their priority dates, the oldest dates first.
.....
VO attempts to establish the cut-off dates for the following month on or about the 8th of each month. The dates are immediately transmitted to consular posts and Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS), and also published in the Visa Bulletin and online at the CA Web site (www.travel.state.gov). Visa allotments for use during that month are transmitted to consular posts.
CIS requests visa allotments for adjustment of status cases only when all other case processing has been completed.
I'm a little confused.
Yes I don't see why not.
Quote:
Originally Posted by inspired_p
Inspired... thanks for sharing the news and as everyone else we would love for this to happen but I had been tracking these kinds of cases and most of them had some previous PD's which the users forgot about and kind of raised false hopes... not saying this is the case but just wanted to double-check... so if it is possible can you confirm with the source if he/she never had any previous PD under any category that they forgot about and only have EB2 I PD with mid-april 2008.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
There were folks that checked the Bombay consulate's website at some point early in the morning for an early release of the bulletin. Does anyone know what that site was and what time the updates usually came?