EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

The down side is that although for I-485 there were around 9.5k more approvals than receipts, for I-140 there were 11.3k more Receipts than Approvals.

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I heard there were I-140 rejections this year...as scrutiny is more...heard few of my friends i-140 got rejeceted...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by cantwaitlonger

I don't know if this is useful data for the number crunchers in this forum...though I'd post anyway.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...2011-april.pdf

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Q, Please also check out this!

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...11-2nd-Qtr.pdf

Form Receipts Approvals
I-485 36,492 45,981
I-140 42,096 30,820

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cantwaitlonger, kd2008;

Great Information!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

cantwaitlonger,

A great find!

It gives insight into the number of approvals from local offices, even if we don't know which EB Category or Country they are in.

It shows how the backlog has reduced, the number of cases that were Current and could be approved from the LO itself. It also shows the Approval /Denial rate.

It perhaps also shows a baseline of cases that are now pending on a monthly basis after the USCIS memo requesting pre-adjudicated cases were sent to TSC.

I don't think I have ever seen a document giving such a detailed peek into the Local Office processing.

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Spec,
Just looking at the document (EB-485), there is hardly any EB 485 demand left with the local offices as of April 2011?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by veni001

cantwaitlonger, kd2008;

Great Information!




Spec,
Just looking at the document (EB-485), there is hardly any EB 485 demand left with the local offices as of April 2011?

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Yes there was memo in dec 2010 to transfer all the local office employment cases to Texas and family based to Nebraska to better manage the pending numbers

Quote:

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Originally Posted by neospeed

Info from non immigrant site. Looks like numbers we got from mittbs match:

I-485 Employment Adjustment upto March 2011 approvals are 45,981. At this rate , aprovals for I-485 for full year becomes, 91962. Adding unused visa numbers used so far, total EB visas used for this year becomes 91962+30000 (SO used so far) = 121,962. So atleast 19K looks is still left from whole fiscal year. This suggest published information on www.mitbbs.com is very authentic and we might have anywhere from 12k-19k total EB visas avaiable for EB category for September. Even if we think 9K can be used for all other categories, EB2-IC can receive anywhere from 5k-10K. Even EB3-ROW can end up getting some number.

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neospeed,

This how I think the 19,000 is derived.

Theoretically, the number of visas issued by the end of July is (9 * 9) + (19/3)% * 140,000 = 122,267 leaving 17,733 remaining for August / September.

Number reported by mitbbs.com = 121,000

Difference = 1,267

Number remaining for 140,000 = 17,733 + 1,267 = 19,000 for August / September

Spec

with the caveat of course that the 19K for Sep+Aug EXCLUDES any EB2IC spillover which is already allocated through end of August.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

neospeed,

This how I think the 19,000 is derived.

Theoretically, the number of visas issued by the end of July is (9 * 9) + (19/3)% * 140,000 = 122,267 leaving 17,733 remaining for August / September.

Number reported by mitbbs.com = 121,000

Difference = 1,267

Number remaining for 140,000 = 17,733 + 1,267 = 19,000 for August / September

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Dear gurus, once you get time, please put forth summary of any new insight or corroboration on existing views / info we had, based on today's data sheet findings by the forum members.

Its a minor quibble - but man is the document difficult to read. I wish they would provide these information in a Excel file as well :-) It is quite amazing data though - its quite a reach for USCIS, which has always been secretive, to start sharing previously hidden data.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by cantwaitlonger

I don't know if this is useful data for the number crunchers in this forum...though I'd post anyway.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...2011-april.pdf

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Its a minor quibble - but man is the document difficult to read. I wish they would provide these information in a Excel file as well :-) It is quite amazing data though - its quite a reach for USCIS, which has always been secretive, to start sharing previously hidden data.

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imdeng,

Both sets of data are also available in csv format, which I have imported into Excel.

You can find them if you go to the data home page, then find the relevant report. http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

Quote:

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Its a minor quibble - but man is the document difficult to read. I wish they would provide these information in a Excel file as well :-) It is quite amazing data though - its quite a reach for USCIS, which has always been secretive, to start sharing previously hidden data.

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imdeng,
Download the CSV format from here and open it up in excel.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by veni001

Spec,
Just looking at the document (EB-485), there is hardly any EB 485 demand left with the local offices as of April 2011?

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Veni,

I think that is possibly a little misleading.

As neospeed noted, the pre-adjudicated cases awaiting a visa have now been sent to TSC.

I have been laboriously compiling the figures of preadjudicated cases at LO all year and there appears to be a churn of around 1-2k that become preadjudicated each month. That is in line with further additions to the USCIS Inventory.

So I think the LO may have a number of different cases pending in any one month. Whether they are sent by the NBC or just come from storage, I don't know.

The LO only appear to be interviewing EB cases just ahead of where the Cut Off Dates are, so I am convinced there are still a very large unknown number of cases still to come through the LO system. The data just provides a snapshot of the situation.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Veni,

I think that is possibly a little misleading.

As neospeed noted, the pre-adjudicated cases awaiting a visa have now been sent to TSC.

I have been laboriously compiling the figures of preadjudicated cases at LO all year and there appears to be a churn of around 1-2k that become preadjudicated each month. That is in line with further additions to the USCIS Inventory.

So I think the LO may have a number of different cases pending in any one month. Whether they are sent by the NBC or just come from storage, I don't know.

The LO only appear to be interviewing EB cases just ahead of where the Cut Off Dates are, so I am convinced there are still a very large unknown number of cases still to come through the LO system. The data just provides a snapshot of the situation.

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Spec,
Since the document only providing information from October 2009 - April 2011, you think still large volume of EB cases are at LO?

I think we discussed this extensively back in January 2011(posts 661-666) and agreed that this demand will be post August 2005, if existed.

Just looking at PERM Certifications/485 inventories and 485 approvals, i don't think this ("dark demand") is significant!

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Thanks KD. This is yet another great find.

Two GOOD observations (and I am sorry I have to be quick since very busy in the work).

1. The receipts vs approvals for 485 EB is in favor of backlog clearance. So yes a great deal of backlog is cleared. How much is built in EB1 and EB2 ROW can be deduced from the first document that somebody posted an hour earlier.
2. Luckily enough EB5 is not going to lose any of last years sofad. So we will get all of that it looks like.

So bottomline .... the indications are they are serious about clearing backlog as close to Aug 2007 as possible AND take in fresh applications at the same time.

The guideline on taking in fresh applications... is in VO's words - "as much as they could clear next year". So it rules out making teh category current. But keepsthe dooropen for 6-12 months movement past Aug 2007.

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Q,
In addition EB485 receipts dropped almost 15% from Q1 to Q2 (19.6k to 16.8k) and pending EB1&EB2ROW-M-P(485) increased by 22%(17.4k to 21.1k) at the same time.

Sure, I am glad that I can help.

Nowadays this website is the first site I visit every morning after I turn on my computer.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Monica12

qblogfan, Thanks for clearing that up. BTW, I'm really glad you are on this forum :)

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qbf, I too share the same sentiment. And not just you, I truly welcome all chinese friends. After all, we are more similar than different.

When in college, I developed a wonderful friendship some of my Japanese Chinese and Korean friends. Me and my wife had our first child while I was in college and one of my chinese friends and his wife helped us a lot. In fact they gave us tons of baby clothes and it was funny to see my son wearing chinese style baby clothes :) When I considered sending my wife back to India for deliverying the baby, my friends wife came and scolded me until I was blue! That's when I realized that the chinese are very similar to Indians. Those were just 2 years of my life and it has been 10 years now ... but I still call him. In fact I just called him a month back and he was unfortunately quite frustrated because he couldn't cope up with the environment there. BTW he is interested in coming back and in pursuing a PHD. I do not know what advice to give him since he is probably 42 now. But anyway ... just wanted to say that i am glad you guys found it worthwhile to visit here and share information. Appreciate the spirit.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

Sure, I am glad that I can help.

Nowadays this website is the first site I visit every morning after I turn on my computer.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by veni001

Q,
In addition EB485 receipts dropped almost 15% from Q1 to Q2 (19.6k to 16.8k) and pending EB1&EB2ROW-M-P(485) increased by 22%(17.4k to 21.1k) at the same time.

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veni, yes ... absolutely. That's where the majority of spillover is coming from.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

neospeed,

This how I think the 19,000 is derived.

Theoretically, the number of visas issued by the end of July is (9 * 9) + (19/3)% * 140,000 = 122,267 leaving 17,733 remaining for August / September.

Number reported by mitbbs.com = 121,000

Difference = 1,267

Number remaining for 140,000 = 17,733 + 1,267 = 19,000 for August / September

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Spec Iam in complete agreement with you.

Friends thanks for all your postings. Here are my thoughts.

- The document shows an interesting impact of the Kazarian memo I140 receipts are higher than the approvals there is no talk about denials as such but the numbers seem to suggest a 20% denial rate. I485 backlog is coming down and approvals exceed receipts.

- The document validated the part # 1 of the mittbs news about approvals in the first 7 months the figures bear a very close correlation.

- With regards the second part of the mittbs news Iam definitely more inclined to believe that the 19K is for both Aug and Sep, here is why a) If its for September only the best of the most optimistic scenario can justify that; SOFAD may well exceed 40 K in that scenario b) In that case the Aug bulletin would have been far more positive than conservative. c) logically as well in the last 2 months there should be 17-19K left in terms of visa numbers (Refer to Spec's Analysis) and because of PWMB filings happening the agencies may have needed some buffer. My personal take is that there will be 3-4K SOFAD in the September bulletin. There is some chance that pipeline building might happen in September but this is something totally hypothetical and at the discretion of the agencies.

There is a lot of confusion about September leftover visas (news courtesy MITBBS). So I have once again tried to simplify the explanation in the HEADER.

If you still don't get it or have doubts .. my advice is leave it ... its not worth it. The bottomline is the dates will certainly move in September. Min 6 weeks (SFM). Max could beanything upto 18 months (BTM).

I am sorry if its dumb question but I missed the terminology..what does it mean by BTM.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

There is a lot of confusion about September leftover visas (news courtesy MITBBS). So I have once again tried to simplify the explanation in the HEADER.

If you still don't get it or have doubts .. my advice is leave it ... its not worth it. The bottomline is the dates will certainly move in September. Min 6 weeks (SFM). Max could beanything upto 18 months (BTM).

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Refer to the 1st page for terminology.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bababless

I am sorry if its dumb question but I missed the terminology..what does it mean by BTM.

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Q, I am very glad to know your story.

My best friend in graduate school was from Southern India. We went to class together and studied together for 2 years. When I had trouble finding a job after graduation, this Indian friend encouraged me and helped me. Finally I settled my job offer with his help and left the city where we studied together, but I still have a good memory of the time spent with this friend. I like the Indian culture because Indian folks are conservative and family oriented.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

qbf, I too share the same sentiment. And not just you, I truly welcome all chinese friends. After all, we are more similar than different.

When in college, I developed a wonderful friendship some of my Japanese Chinese and Korean friends. Me and my wife had our first child while I was in college and one of my chinese friends and his wife helped us a lot. In fact they gave us tons of baby clothes and it was funny to see my son wearing chinese style baby clothes :) When I considered sending my wife back to India for deliverying the baby, my friends wife came and scolded me until I was blue! That's when I realized that the chinese are very similar to Indians. Those were just 2 years of my life and it has been 10 years now ... but I still call him. In fact I just called him a month back and he was unfortunately quite frustrated because he couldn't cope up with the environment there. BTW he is interested in coming back and in pursuing a PHD. I do not know what advice to give him since he is probably 42 now. But anyway ... just wanted to say that i am glad you guys found it worthwhile to visit here and share information. Appreciate the spirit.





veni, yes ... absolutely. That's where the majority of spillover is coming from.

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Over past 3 years we are talking so much about July 2007 "fiasco" and now it's amazing to see us reaching to the end of the pool that got built during that "fiasco". Hopefully, it's now turn for all PWMBs and people with PD post August 2007!

Good luck all !

I am badly waiting to file 485.... I don't care about green card and its OK if it takes another 2 years, but it would be really great if I get an EAD+AP right away...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by makmohan

Over past 3 years we are talking so much about July 2007 "fiasco" and now it's amazing to see us reaching to the end of the pool that got built during that "fiasco". Hopefully, it's now turn for all PWMBs and people with PD post August 2007!

Good luck all !

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by familyguy

I am badly waiting to file 485.... I don't care about green card and its OK if it takes another 2 years, but it would be really great if I get an EAD+AP right away...

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We all are PWBA (People Waiting for the Boat to Arrive).. hang in there..

Quote:

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Originally Posted by makmohan

Over past 3 years we are talking so much about July 2007 "fiasco" and now it's amazing to see us reaching to the end of the pool that got built during that "fiasco". Hopefully, it's now turn for all PWMBs and people with PD post August 2007!

Good luck all !

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Over past four years!

Well said. May this be the year, let the planets align. CO, have mercy!

makmohan

I am actually going to use that terminology now on. PWBA!! Makes sense to call all those waiting to file 485!!

Thanks.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by makmohan

We all are PWBA (People Waiting for the Boat to Arrive).. hang in there..

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by makmohan

We all are PWBA (People Waiting for the Boat to Arrive).. hang in there..

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Good one.. this should be used for all people post july 2007 fiasco

Edit: Q beat me to the punch... its a good idea to update the header with this term.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

makmohan

I am actually going to use that terminology now on. PWBA!! Makes sense to call all those waiting to file 485!!

Thanks.

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Thanks Q! Glad I could contribute at least something.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

makmohan

I am actually going to use that terminology now on. PWBA!! Makes sense to call all those waiting to file 485!!

Thanks.

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Very true...missed the boat is negative talk and waiting for the boat is positive hope....

Quote:

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Originally Posted by familyguy

I am badly waiting to file 485.... I don't care about green card and its OK if it takes another 2 years, but it would be really great if I get an EAD+AP right away...

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I'm with you. I would love to have my EAD and more so my wife. Thankfully I love my job but it would be nice to have some flexibility and security.

PWBA - :-).. hats off to whoever who coined it.. reminds me of the ferry that takes people to Ellis Island.. the former site of naturalization..

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

The guideline on taking in fresh applications... is in VO's words - "as much as they could clear next year". So it rules out making teh category current. But keepsthe dooropen for 6-12 months movement past Aug 2007.

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I hear the boat horn:
http://www.soundsnap.com/node/57054

I am on the same boat. I want to tell you guys my miserable story. My PD is in January 2008. I had very bad luck. I started working in 2004 and stayed on the same job for 7 years already. I got another job offer in December 2005, but my current employer gave me a counter offer and promised me green card. At the same time they asked me to sign a contract that I can't leave this company until one year after the green card is approved. In April 2006, I asked my company about the progress and they told me they started posting ads on newspaper, etc. I asked again in December 2006 and they told me it's in progress. I waited to March 2007 and I didn't hear anything. I asked them again and the company told me they didn't do anything yet.............Finally I figured out that they cheated me and tried to delay my GC process as long as they could. I was so naive.........Finally I got PERM filed in January 2008. I waited for 2 years from starting this process to get a PD. The company did everything evil to control me using green card as a tool. This delay caused significant impact on my life....... I was so naive to trust the company and the truth is that they only want to use GC as a tool to control employees.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by vizcard

I'm with you. I would love to have my EAD and more so my wife. Thankfully I love my job but it would be nice to have some flexibility and security.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

I am on the same boat. I want to tell you guys my miserable story. My PD is in January 2008. I had very bad luck. I started working in 2004 and stayed on the same job for 7 years already. I got another job offer in December 2005, but my current employer gave me a counter offer and promised me green card. At the same time they asked me to sign a contract that I can't leave this company until one year after the green card is approved. In April 2006, I asked my company about the progress and they told me they started posting ads on newspaper, etc. I asked again in December 2006 and they told me it's in progress. I waited to March 2007 and I didn't hear anything. I asked them again and the company told me they didn't do anything yet.............Finally I figured out that they cheated me and tried to delay my GC process as long as they could. I was so naive.........Finally I got PERM filed in January 2008. I waited for 2 years from starting this process to get a PD. The company did everything evil to control me using green card as a tool. This delay caused significant impact on my life....... I was so naive to trust the company and the truth is that they only want to use GC as a tool to control employees.

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OMG! I'm so sorry to hear this qblogfan. I was also once with a company on H1B who used a similar strategy...so I can relate.
I wonder how these people sleep at night ...?

I experienced too much pain in this company (this company is not managed by asian, but by a white man). I just want to get my green card and get out asap.

His "stratgy" caused significant impact on my life and he never gave a damn to it. I was so stupid that I signed the contract without thinking. In the contract he asked me to stay one year after GC, but he didn't list any restriction to his side such as when to start the GC, etc. I couldn't do anything, although he abused me big time.

I was so naive and thought people are all honest. The truth is so cold blooded. Until today I didn't get a copy of my I140 yet. I asked for it and the company refused to give me a copy. They told me they filed EB2 for me, but I am in serious doubt whether they did EB2 for me. I have requested a copy for my I140 through FOIA, but I am still waiting for this copy. If this copy turns out to be EB3, I will have no other choice, but go back to China immediately.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Monica12

OMG! I'm so sorry to hear this qblogfan. I was also once with a company on H1B who used a similar strategy...so I can relate.
I wonder how these people sleep at night ...?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

I am on the same boat. I want to tell you guys my miserable story. My PD is in January 2008. I had very bad luck. I started working in 2004 and stayed on the same job for 7 years already. I got another job offer in December 2005, but my current employer gave me a counter offer and promised me green card. At the same time they asked me to sign a contract that I can't leave this company until one year after the green card is approved. In April 2006, I asked my company about the progress and they told me they started posting ads on newspaper, etc. I asked again in December 2006 and they told me it's in progress. I waited to March 2007 and I didn't hear anything. I asked them again and the company told me they didn't do anything yet.............Finally I figured out that they cheated me and tried to delay my GC process as long as they could. I was so naive.........Finally I got PERM filed in January 2008. I waited for 2 years from starting this process to get a PD. The company did everything evil to control me using green card as a tool. This delay caused significant impact on my life....... I was so naive to trust the company and the truth is that they only want to use GC as a tool to control employees.

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I am in the same boat but my employer is totally unaware of GC process and its the parent company who bought us that screwed up the process, I was in a research position which requires masters in CS but we still filed in EB3 just to be safe, my first GC process started in mar, 2005 and parent company withdrew my app in early 2006 and they told me the same in summer 2006, my boss was totally pissed off and he confronted HR dept regarding the same and they promised to start the GC process ASAP, they dint have any updated till summer 2007 at which point i quit my job and joined a startup who started my GC process in late 2008,

comint to predicitons, i hope i can file 485 in 2012, gurus is my prediction accurate?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

I am on the same boat. I want to tell you guys my miserable story. My PD is in January 2008. I had very bad luck. I started working in 2004 and stayed on the same job for 7 years already. I got another job offer in December 2005, but my current employer gave me a counter offer and promised me green card. At the same time they asked me to sign a contract that I can't leave this company until one year after the green card is approved. In April 2006, I asked my company about the progress and they told me they started posting ads on newspaper, etc. I asked again in December 2006 and they told me it's in progress. I waited to March 2007 and I didn't hear anything. I asked them again and the company told me they didn't do anything yet.............Finally I figured out that they cheated me and tried to delay my GC process as long as they could. I was so naive.........Finally I got PERM filed in January 2008. I waited for 2 years from starting this process to get a PD. The company did everything evil to control me using green card as a tool. This delay caused significant impact on my life....... I was so naive to trust the company and the truth is that they only want to use GC as a tool to control employees.

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i am in the smae boat like you qblogfan..was supposed to start my GC in may 2007 by my employer, kept on posponing, changed to another full time mid of last year...and having priority date of feb 2011...i know my wait is another 3 years at the least before i can file my 485... :(

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

I experienced too much pain in this company (this company is not managed by asian, but by a white man). I just want to get my green card and get out asap.

His "stratgy" caused significant impact on my life and he never gave a damn to it. I was so stupid that I signed the contract without thinking. In the contract he asked me to stay one year after GC, but he didn't list any restriction to his side such as when to start the GC, etc. I couldn't do anything, although he abused me big time.

I was so naive and thought people are all honest. The truth is so cold blooded. Until today I didn't get a copy of my I140 yet. I asked for it and the company refused to give me a copy. They told me they filed EB2 for me, but I am in serious doubt whether they did EB2 for me. I have requested a copy for my I140 through FOIA, but I am still waiting for this copy. If this copy turns out to be EB3, I will have no other choice, but go back to China immediately.

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This is terrible !!!! I'm speechless :(

I wish you can get GC as soon as possible. Once we get our green card, we will not need to work/live under the company's mercy.

Some companies are real honest and treat employees well, but some companies use GC as a tool to control employees. We do have a choice to move back to our home countries, but once we get stuck in this system for so long, it's so costly to give it up.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nnnnn123

i am in the smae boat like you qblogfan..was supposed to start my GC in may 2007 by my employer, kept on posponing, changed to another full time mid of last year...and having priority date of feb 2011...i know my wait is another 3 years at the least before i can file my 485... :(

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I am sorry to hear your story. I can understand your pain.

The good thing about this forum is that we get a lot of mental support from all the folks.

Best wishes to you and your family.

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Originally Posted by sujan_vatrapu

I am in the same boat but my employer is totally unaware of GC process and its the parent company who bought us that screwed up the process, I was in a research position which requires masters in CS but we still filed in EB3 just to be safe, my first GC process started in mar, 2005 and parent company withdrew my app in early 2006 and they told me the same in summer 2006, my boss was totally pissed off and he confronted HR dept regarding the same and they promised to start the GC process ASAP, they dint have any updated till summer 2007 at which point i quit my job and joined a startup who started my GC process in late 2008,

comint to predicitons, i hope i can file 485 in 2012, gurus is my prediction accurate?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

I am on the same boat. I want to tell you guys my miserable story. My PD is in January 2008. I had very bad luck. I started working in 2004 and stayed on the same job for 7 years already. I got another job offer in December 2005, but my current employer gave me a counter offer and promised me green card. At the same time they asked me to sign a contract that I can't leave this company until one year after the green card is approved. In April 2006, I asked my company about the progress and they told me they started posting ads on newspaper, etc. I asked again in December 2006 and they told me it's in progress. I waited to March 2007 and I didn't hear anything. I asked them again and the company told me they didn't do anything yet.............Finally I figured out that they cheated me and tried to delay my GC process as long as they could. I was so naive.........Finally I got PERM filed in January 2008. I waited for 2 years from starting this process to get a PD. The company did everything evil to control me using green card as a tool. This delay caused significant impact on my life....... I was so naive to trust the company and the truth is that they only want to use GC as a tool to control employees.

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You are not alone my friend. Although my employer was good, i wasted lot of years trusting people and working hard in American companies while waiting for GC to come. All that came out of it was exploitation just cause i was on a visa. And now, situation is so bad that i dont trust anyone. Not even my family. This GC nonsense had destroyed me and my family. Sad but true.

Will be 11 years for me in US soon.