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I second that.. My PERM processing was put on hold in a fortune 100 company for the same reason. Everybody who had applied for PERM towards end of 07 were audited big time. All GC processing was shut for the next two years.. Yup.. Im stuck at Feb 2010 PD, glad they did apply as my 6 year term was coming to an end.Quote:
Originally Posted by mrdeeds
Agree that it corroborates CO's earlier statements very well.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Thanks. This makes sense. Could be true.Quote:
Originally Posted by mrdeeds
Absolutely.. we haven't seen the bulk of 2008 and none of 2009 yet .. it is,however, great for March bulletin, unless CO has access to a more current Inventory data .. which reflects the Jan filers numbers ..Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
That was the case only for PERMS starting Apr~May 2008. Since MSFT laid off employees in Jan 2009, pretty much 'all' of those PERMS were audited. Infact after the lay offs, MSFT didn't file PERMS(very few exceptions) for all of 2009 and up until mid 2010.Quote:
Originally Posted by usernameisnotvalid
You mean Jan 2008, right?Quote:
Originally Posted by piratla
Nope. Jan 2009. ~5000 employees were let go.
Here is a link
http://minimsft.blogspot.com/2009/01...-now-what.html
All the Very Best to ALL who are eagerly waiting for March VB...
Not just employers even law firm had run into an issue with USCIS. Fragomen was all over the internet because of what they were suggesting to their clients. Hence USCIS had decided to audit all perms submitted by Fragomen.
Even my case with PD Mar 08 was audited by got approved.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Based on the Jan 2012 inventory, new demand till Dec VB is ~8.4K. This gives a very early trackitt ratio of 9.3%
EB3 ROW Inventory
As of Oct'2010 --> 32,365
As of Jan 12' 2012 --> 29,388
only 3000 Reduction at USCIS & Field offices per one Quarter
For argument sake if we assume that only 30% people filed in first week of Jan , even then full number wont cross 1000?Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
And if we still want to be conservative and stick to 2200/month of original estimate then looks like in first week only 12-15% people filed. (which I certanily disagree with )
I still dont get it. I am one of those march 08 filers who filed in Dec 2011.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
I am yet to get FP done, am i one of the counts on the report or not?
I havent even got EAD but i dont think that matters.
Suninphx,Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
I think USCIS waited till Jan 12, because it thought that for all the cases till Dec 31 to show up in the inventory it takes 7-8 working business days, but of course some cases in the first day or two of Jan were also showing up in the inventory. There is not much to make of it. Don't try to estimate Jan VB demand by using the data from this inventory.
Many if not most of them withdrew after denial in audit and applied fresh in 2011.Quote:
Originally Posted by piratla
Can some one explain if inventory data is till January 12 2012 then how come 2009 January PD is showing "34", 2009JanPD should be filing from February, were these applications incorrectly filed in January instead of Feb.
EB2 ROW used to consume 35K per year in 2008/2009 ( EB2I&C got 10-14K with 6K reqular Quota & 8K spillover from EB1) was down to < 20K now so demand destruction is close to 50%.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
I am guessing. I am in the same boat but if they are counting people who filed in first week of Jan the FP shouldnt matter to the counting.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pdmar08
Taking a look at the Jan and FEb 2008 figures and the timing of the last update date of the inventory report , I'd guess 700 per month for whole 2008 ie 700 * 12 = 8400Quote:
Originally Posted by srividya
What do you think Sun/Kd ?
If total 2008 filings are indeed less than 10000 then that would be good news for every one.Quote:
Originally Posted by codesmith
Personally I am not very comfortable with such low demand numbers. Gives me feeling that some thing has not still been accounted for. May be next inventory gives better picture.
Lets wait to hear from experts.
My 2 cents...Looking at the January Filing Trackers on Trackitt, ~75% of them have a RD before Jan 11th. Though this is not a strong indicator to say that inventory report captured 75% of demand for 2008, but its a strong indicator that more people try to send their documents as soon as they are current.
Kumar
No Demand data means no March Visa Bulletin Today?
probably right...
Ok then this week end we will be getting more info / analysis from gurus.. ...Quote:
Originally Posted by srividya
My priority date is 12.30.2008. So
With this inventory data out when do we expect our green card in hand.
Thanks
I said a long time ago that I was not sure how useful the Jan 2012 USCIS Inventory would be and I still feel this is the case.
We do not know how long it takes USCIS to add a case to the Inventory, or the process to do so. Not all receipts are necessarily eligible, so there must be a screening process.
In fact, there is such a large drop in the ratio for PDs of November onwards (i.e. December VB onwards), that I am suspicious it is may be rather a long process to capture all the cases that have been received.
For instance, it seems entirely plausible that NSC are more efficient than TSC (and TSC processes most of the EB cases) - who knows.
I do know that the data doesn't entirely add up, so I would beware of jumping to conclusions too early.
When do u guys think bulletin coming next week, Friday or any chance of earlier
Nice pick and good point Spec. I think you're right, this may not even represent total receipts and may need some more time for the data to be 'seasoned'.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
EB2 India
145
124
147
300
498
714
--- Nov Bulletin --
974
936
1,120
1,361
--- Dec Bulletin --
689
597
727
742
(443) / 2
--- Jan Bulletin --
(443) / 2
217
248
204
196
182
162
210
156
214
--- Feb Bulletin --
34
Looks like average 1100 for Nov, 700 for Dec and 200 for Jan bulletin.
It clearly says that they have not added all the receipt into inventory yet..
Spec great thoughts, I have a theory on which I could be entirely wrong but it could well be the gap in the inventory. This is just my own theory which kind of struck me I may be entirely wrong.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
- Most of us who have filed now have had issues with the dependent PD printed on the receipt notices. Some saw blanks and some saw the RD, this could be a translation for no value.
- Every individual is identified uniquely by A# in the system, while the primary applicants A# is old and has the correct PD associated with it because this A# is associated with the i140.
- It appears that the process when an application arrives is to create receipt notices and generate A# for new applicants dependents in this case.
- Now the inventory is generated it is nothing but a grouping of individuals by country, category and PD, since the dependent case A#'s have incomplete information they are not coming up on this extract at all.
- Now if this theory is true the quality of data should go bad progressively, Nov filer’s data does show and OR of 0.7 while Dec is much lower.
- Now here is another catch some Jan filers are in the inventory if this theory is true the primary applicants went straight to the inventory.
- Another thing is that the publication date is Jan 12th it does not mean that the report itself was extracted on the 12th, the data may have come from sometime earlier.
- Iam not sure when the A# information should be corrected, most Nov filers have received EAD, while Dec filers are in process, so Nov data is closer to being correct while Dec is still work in progress.
- Let’s see what is the real truth, unfortunately if the inventory is not true the next one may not also give the full information because approvals are constantly happening.
- My own range of OR (Perm to I485) has been from 0.8 to 1 it looks like the true value may come closer to .70 - .75.
- If the inventory is correct then our friend Suninphx who is truly the original proponent of the demand destruction theory and concept, its game set and match to you, hats off to you, on a lighter note since the numbers are so drastic everything off to you :) :).
- Now if CO looks at these kind of numbers Iam sure his knee jerk reaction would be to drastically move the dates forward, so forward movement chances seem to be really bright.
- The final resting point this year will be determined more by the rise in EB1 v/s fall in EB2 ROW, EB1 inventory is high let’s see what happens. Since QSP is happening and the reports point to 9% completion every month numbers once given to Eb2 I/C are kind of a done deal, CO is going by monthly completions and implicitly he will satisfy the annual numbers.
Let’s hope for the best hope we see some guidance on the inventory. The demand data if published this time will be interesting.
Teddy that is a very good explanation and a quite pausible one. I personally do not like the fact that USCIS cannot provide us with quality data. There is always something or the other that leads us to question the veracity of the data. It is what it is.
Teddy,
A well thought out post as always. That is an interesting and plausible theory.
The final resting place for the year (I think you mean who will receive approval) may well also be influenced by the level of RFEs. That would push the date forward from where it might otherwise lie.
kd,
USCIS have always been so economical with the truth, their figures always need to taken with a pinch of salt and deserve extra scrutiny.
Look at how EB3-ROW numbers have changed, relative to the visas received. Clearly there are far more applications in the USCIS world than they are reporting.
USCIS is going to have a bonanza with RFEs galore for birth certificates!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Teddy,Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Thanks for kind words. So nice of you. I was just sharing what I saw around that time but you guys translated those thoughts to real numbers and that's what matters the most. And besides me there were certainly more people who shared same sentiment. I know for sure that Kanmani always had similar thoughts based on her experiences.
If I could contribute even 0.1% to cause of this site that would be achievement for me.
While I still believe there is certainly demand destruction, inventory is showing much more lower numbers than I was expecting. Something is surely not correct there.But these numbers make me more comfortable now with my original projection of ~50K applications by end of 2009. (Kanmani has more aggressive numbers and I hope that turns out to be true :).
As for your new theory - does any one know after how many months inventory numbers got stabilized post Jul 2007? May be that will give some direction.
Guys and gals,
I need your help in deciphering how many EB I-485s did USCIS process last fiscal year excluding the pre-adjudicated ones.
Have a look at http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...eData_FY11.pdf
123K out of 140K approved by USCIS, rest are CP.
EB2IC + EB3 were nearly all preadjudicated. I am placing that number somewhere around 60K (30K for EB2IC + 30K for EB3)
So it is possible that USCIS processed about 60K to 65K EB I-485s from scratch. This year that number has to be close to 80K to 90K (as there are no preadjudicated EB2IC left)
Are my estimates making sense? If so, that is lot to ask of USCIS. Let us see what happens. In case this analysis has been previously done please let me know.
Thanks
Sun thanks, all credit to everyone who contributed including Kanmani, the purpose of this site is to bring clarity to everyone and the discussion is certainly helping in a very constructive way. We both kind of agree on demand destruction but our quantification is different my belief is 0.8 - 1 while I believe yours has been around .7 the Nov filers data is in fact closer to 0.7. I hope the facts prevail if the inventory is correct it’s great news for EB2 I/C if not we will know in a few months. Like you even I was expecting higher numbers for Jan 2008 which is the top month for perms.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
The Jul 2007 fiasco was in fact the prime mover for the Inventory process; the first inventory was published couple of years after the Jul 2007 fiasco so would have been stable by then. Many have pointed out here that the EB3 ROW inventory reduced by just 3K in 3 months that’s another example of a big anomaly.
That's true Jan 2008 has ~2900 PERMS. My theory is if we take standard processing times for PERM around Jan 2008 then by the time these PERMS were approved and were eligible for I140 stage we were well into recession. Based on what I have seen it was not easy to find a new job till May/Jun 2009 even for IT professional.(arguably least affected by recession). That's the reason 2008 data is going to be very interesting. Lets wait and watch.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Teddy, I looked at the tables for EB1-ROW, EB1-I, EB1-C, EB2-ROW in the inventory and all of them show a sharp drop in Dec 2011 compared to Nov 2011. So your theory gets a boost. I would say it moves it from pausible to possible.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Teddy and Sun Thanks for mentioning me. Sun it was you, one who sown the demand destruction seed in to the field.
I agree with all that this is not a complete inventory and I have already mentioned that Oct 2011 is also imperfect.
The sudden difference in Eb3 inventory may be due to the slow removal of porting cases after physically verfying them. This was mentioned somwhere in the ombudman report .
Sun I still have my own numbers which are lower compared to S&T's ( sorry guys) currently backed up by the low I-140 numbers . With my theory there is a possibility that 2009ers will start getting their GC by next year this time :-)
Just a quick post to show where we are with Primary Applicant filings in EB2-I since October 2011 based on Trackitt.
PDs from ------- Approved -- Filed -- % Approved
FY2011 ---------------- 7 ----- 26 ------- 26.92
October VB ----------- 35 ---- 115 ------- 30.43
November VB ---------- 26 ---- 334 -------- 7.78
December VB ----------- 1 ---- 358 -------- 0.28
January VB ------------ 0 ---- 333 -------- 0.00
February VB ----------- 0 ----- 49 -------- 0.00
ALL ----- ------------ 69 -- 1,215 -------- 5.68
Approvals beyond July 2007
August 2007 ----- 6
September 2007 -- 9
October 2007 ---- 9
November 2007 --- 0
December 2007 --- 0
January 2008 ---- 1
Total ---------- 25
I hope the numbers put where we are into perspective.
KD - I am not commenting on the numbers you are reporting - but my opinion is that USCIS handles applications of different types that total to several millions every year - a difference of even a few hundred thousands in EB2 I-485 applications is not going to make too much of a material difference to USCIS.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008