As we get closer and closer to Sep VB, I will start chanting this mantra more and more....:)Quote:
Originally Posted by neospeed
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As we get closer and closer to Sep VB, I will start chanting this mantra more and more....:)Quote:
Originally Posted by neospeed
lmao !!!!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
I don't know if this is useful data for the number crunchers in this forum...though I'd post anyway.
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...2011-april.pdf
Thanks!
This is quite unprecedented. USCIS published demand and split all kinds of 485 into various categories by year EB vs FB vs station.
As you can see the denial rate is huge .. almost 25% for EB this year. This is a good news for next years EB spillover since those people wont be backlogged anymore. Will post later if I find something more interesting.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cantwaitlonger
Q, Please also check out this!
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...11-2nd-Qtr.pdf
Form Receipts Approvals
I-485 36,492 45,981
I-140 42,096 30,820
looks like this is the very first time such information is made public, I hope this information will yiled more clarityQuote:
Originally Posted by cantwaitlonger
man they are denying a lot!Quote:
Originally Posted by cantwaitlonger
we are not seeing any I/C screaming about denials right... is it happening in ROW domain mainly? just wondering...Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
I was thinking the same... there is not much about denials on Trackitt.Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
Also for EB-5Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
I-526 1,572 455
cantwaitlonger,Quote:
Originally Posted by cantwaitlonger
A great find!
It gives insight into the number of approvals from local offices, even if we don't know which EB Category or Country they are in.
It shows how the backlog has reduced, the number of cases that were Current and could be approved from the LO itself. It also shows the Approval /Denial rate.
It perhaps also shows a baseline of cases that are now pending on a monthly basis after the USCIS memo requesting pre-adjudicated cases were sent to TSC.
I don't think I have ever seen a document giving such a detailed peek into the Local Office processing.
If you look at this document... the denial rate is around 12 %...Oct 10 to Mar 11 only data...Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Emp based 485 receipts = 150,227 (damn...isnt 140K for whole year???????????)
approval = 132,603
So in Q1, approvals are 24,040 and in Q2 end, 45,981. In Q3 we say at last I and C backlog reduction by more than 20k, so I would put something like 30k for Q3. And one 485 approval means one visa number, so until Q3, 70k only. That don't sound right. I am missing something major here.Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
About 140, in two Q if we see 30k approvals, and if we extrapolate blindly and say 60k approvals for FY, and each application has a 2 dependant factor, then 120k, which shows demand is not that less, but scrutiny, denials etc is more.
Guys, what thoughts.
True, but they were sent to a Local Office for a reason. We might expect the denial rate to be much higher.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Since we don't know what EB Category they are, it is possible many are in EB4, for instance.
Not necessarily! Remember Q's equation. You have to take into account actual pending and denied cases to come to a conclusion. We cannot do that based on just receipts and approvals. The approvals may include cases received last year.Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
ok... but 132K approvals this year already... doesnt that number leave us with 8K (assuming 140K to be total for EB category) for rest of two quarters?....something is not right...either my understanding or the numbers printed...Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Thanks for the info KD. However, I am curious about this: How can Approvals be more than Receipts? Or do they count the Approvals for the each individual(s) in a 485 app?
Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Thanks KD. This is yet another great find.
Two GOOD observations (and I am sorry I have to be quick since very busy in the work).
1. The receipts vs approvals for 485 EB is in favor of backlog clearance. So yes a great deal of backlog is cleared. How much is built in EB1 and EB2 ROW can be deduced from the first document that somebody posted an hour earlier.
2. Luckily enough EB5 is not going to lose any of last years sofad. So we will get all of that it looks like.
So bottomline .... the indications are they are serious about clearing backlog as close to Aug 2007 as possible AND take in fresh applications at the same time.
The guideline on taking in fresh applications... is in VO's words - "as much as they could clear next year". So it rules out making teh category current. But keepsthe dooropen for 6-12 months movement past Aug 2007.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Approvals also come from pending cases from previous years, especially the quarter before the start of the fiscal year.Quote:
Originally Posted by haripathhi
HP...as KD mentioned "The approvals may include cases received last year" but the receipts are this FY numbers...Quote:
Originally Posted by haripathhi
Veni
I140 number of receipts 42,096 is exactly matching with the monthly total that you update in Facts & Data section, approval rate is 73% for 1st half.
If we consider same approval rate for EB2, that will leave us with 5k Eb1
You are looking the incorrect line. You are looking at I-485 family based. Look one line above that.Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
cool thanks... i told ya...something is wrong...Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
soggadu,Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
I think those figures are for Family based I-485.
This provides good validation of the figures obtained by NIU.
Given it is USCIS data, it doesn't include CP cases.
When it rains, it pours!!!!
Spec, doesn't this usage data raise a lot of questions? Especially if DoS decides BTM for next year. I just cannot fathom why DoS hasn't started building the pipeline. There is no way USCIS can intake 40k cases and process them in last 3 months of the year to avoid visa wastage. The first half of the fiscal year would be a perfect time to pre-adjudicate cases. I hope BTM happens in September bulletin.
Spec, so this data does give even more credibilty to the news Q gave us earlier ?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Yes, the NIU data covers 7 months (10/1/2010-4/30/2011) and this data covers the first 2 quarters.
The difference between the NIU number and this number is about 7k. I think in April USCIS approved 7k.
Now all the data add up and make sense.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I agree the ideal situation is to take in new cases sooner rather than later, to give the maximum amount of time to adjudicate them. Waiting till July would be far too late, considering background checks etc.Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Remember, the figures are for Oct-Mar and there were constraints on how many I-485s could be approved for China & India and possibly Mexico and Philippines.
It therefore doesn't tell us what the "full throttle" capability is.
I wholeheartedly agree with your sentiments. I was hoping the new intake might be taken in as early as September. Now I am not so sure.
Q,
Thanks for your analysis. What is your personal opinion on the timing of BTM? Is it as early as Sept bulletin or is it more like May'12 bulletin? With PD of Oct,2007 you can understand my anxiety over the same.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I think so.
Everything matched up.
USCIS data shows the total approval is about 45k from Oct.1 to March 30th. The average approval is about 7.5k/month.
Q's news shows the total approval is about 52k from Oct.1 to April 30th. The average approval is about 7.43k/month.
It's really close.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monica12
I agree with S.
The best situation is that they can accept new cases from September.
However, Mr.CO may postpone it to the next summer. He may think 2-3 months are enough for 485 approval. We should never over estimate the IQ of these officials. They may hold off to the last moment.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Monica,Quote:
Originally Posted by Monica12
Spell out to me what you believe the message was.
qblogfan, Thanks for clearing that up. BTW, I'm really glad you are on this forum :)Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
Spec, in some ways September might be an ideal time. Remember last year they ran out of quota around September 15? That way if they do BTM in September then, they approve only the cases for which there are visas available and rest is BTM. This seems logical to me. But who knows what goes thru' CO's mind.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec, this is what I was asking. The 19K for September...if that made more sense now.Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
The down side is that although for I-485 there were around 9.5k more approvals than receipts, for I-140 there were 11.3k more Receipts than Approvals.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...0045f3d6a1RCRD
Quote:
Initial Posting Includes Naturalization and Adjustment of Status Performance Data
Released July 18, 2011
WASHINGTON—U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) today announced the availability of new data reports covering agency performance in a broad range of data and operational areas. The reports, prepared at the request of agency stakeholders, advance agency efforts to enhance transparency and improve customer service.
“We are proud to announce that, for the first time, we are able to share performance data in critical areas of this agency’s work,” said USCIS Director Alejandro Mayorkas. “We remain committed to continuing our efforts to be responsive, open and transparent.”
USCIS’ Office of Performance and Quality has now made 10 data sets available to the public on our website at the following address: www.uscis.gov/data. Four of the data sets will be updated monthly; they include processing times and performance data for Form N-400, Application for Naturalization; performance data for Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status; and statistics on Form I-914, Application for T Nonimmigrant Status, and Form I-918, Petition for U Nonimmigrant Status. Forms I-914(T) and I-918(U) are used for victims of trafficking and victims of crime.
Additionally, the following data sets have been published and will be updated quarterly:
Total number of receipts and approvals by quarter and year-to-date for all form types
For Form N-400, Application for Naturalization; performance data for Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status; and statistics on Form I-914, Application for T Nonimmigrant Status, and Form I-918, Petition for U Nonimmigrant Status. Forms I-914(T) and I-918(U) are used for victims of trafficking and victims of crime
USCIS will continue to add more data sets to the web page in the future.
Monica,Quote:
Originally Posted by Monica12
Sorry for asking - that was exactly the information I needed.
I believe both Q and I believe the 19k covers both August and September.
For different reasons we both believe that in the best case, 8-10k spillover might be available in September, but it is too early to say for sure.
Both of us believe around 4k probably represents the lowest amount.
If I have misrepresented Q's latest thinking, I am sure he will correct me, but I know he is busy with work currently.
Info from non immigrant site. Looks like numbers we got from mittbs match:
I-485 Employment Adjustment upto March 2011 approvals are 45,981. At this rate , aprovals for I-485 for full year becomes, 91962. Adding unused visa numbers used so far, total EB visas used for this year becomes 91962+30000 (SO used so far) = 121,962. So atleast 19K looks is still left from whole fiscal year. This suggest published information on www.mitbbs.com is very authentic and we might have anywhere from 12k-19k total EB visas avaiable for EB category for September. Even if we think 9K can be used for all other categories, EB2-IC can receive anywhere from 5k-10K. Even EB3-ROW can end up getting some number.
Thanks Spec, Neospeed,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
It all makes sense now! :)