EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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07-18-2011, 12:01 PM
iamdeb

Quote:

Originally Posted by qblogfan

Yes, I think my estimation of 20k is a little optimistic. Considering the increasing EB1/EB2 ROW I-140 pending numbers, we may see less than 20k next year. It will be tough next year. I hope it will not go too bad because there are still tons of Indian/Chinese 2008-2011 EB2 waiting for 485 submission.

Thanks to both Q and qblogfan for putting the mitbbs news into correct perspective.
07-18-2011, 12:04 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

I that should be all you need from employer. Just like 485 - AC21 is a form filed by candidate not by the employer. It is another matter some employers keep filing 485 and keep paying all EAD and 131 expenses.

Quote:

Originally Posted by desi4green

What does it mean when you say "New employer needs to support AC21". They do provide a immigration verification letter that states all the criteria except for detailed job description. Is involvement of new employer really required other than providing immigration verification letter + detailed job description?

Thanks for your help in advance.

It basically employment verification letter(similar to the one filed with 485) from new employer. Remember new Job must to "similar" to the JD in i140 on-file. Once you have this letter either you/your attorney can send a memo explaining that you want to invoke AC21 and change employer.

In most cases when some one doesn't file AC21, when the old employer request USCIS to withdraw underlying i140, will get NOID/RFE for employment verification.
07-18-2011, 12:06 PM
vizcard

Aug 2008 PD

I know individual cases cannot (will not?) be answered but I figured its worth a shot. All the projections for BTM point to Q2 2008-ish. Any idea what the implications are for those PDs in July / Aug / Sept 2008.

I'm a 8/20/2008 PD so this obviously means something to me.

PS: Brilliant job on these analyses. These are all projections and may be off but the analysis and logic is solid.
07-18-2011, 12:15 PM
familyguy

qblogfan, thanks for the clarification.. hope we will get out of this mess soon....

Quote:

Originally Posted by qblogfan

The news of "several months movement" was from a guy who had communications with Mr.CO. Nobody could verify his identity. Additionally that email was from Mr.CO three weeks before the VB, so it's possible Mr.Co changed his mind or something came up.

The news of 19k visa left was from the Chinese NIU immigration organization, which has some credibility. People donated money to NIU and I think they are serious/responsible for what they say.
07-18-2011, 12:25 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by grnwtg

Just a Look at trackitt data for month of July '2011 - EB2 Approvals:
India: 176
China: 2
rest of world: 11
Total : 189

r u sure about the numbers? Spec have them at 159 for India...
07-18-2011, 12:27 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by vizcard

I know individual cases cannot (will not?) be answered but I figured its worth a shot. All the projections for BTM point to Q2 2008-ish. Any idea what the implications are for those PDs in July / Aug / Sept 2008.

I'm a 8/20/2008 PD so this obviously means something to me.

PS: Brilliant job on these analyses. These are all projections and may be off but the analysis and logic is solid.

Viz... if you look at the analysis, if there is any BTM this year then it might go up to Q1 2008. For ur PD i guess it would be the same time next year ( if we have any BTM this FY )...
07-18-2011, 12:40 PM
nishant2200

Quote:

Originally Posted by qblogfan

Yes, I think my estimation of 20k is a little optimistic. Considering the increasing EB1/EB2 ROW I-140 pending numbers, we may see less than 20k next year. It will be tough next year. I hope it will not go too bad because there are still tons of Indian/Chinese 2008-2011 EB2 waiting for 485 submission.

guys, I also think so, didn't want to put it too forcefully as it would kind of disappoint. But 20k sounds like the plateau to reach next year. Honestly, EB2 I needs a SO each year to move at all, because the normal quota will be eaten up by porting totally.
07-18-2011, 12:56 PM
qesehmk

i case some of you missed it, i have updated the header to reflect a visa-usage-equation that Spec introduced. Based on that info basically we concluded that movement in August bulletin is based on spillover created upto end of July.

Any additional spillover from August or September will come from the 19K numbers - minimum being 4-5K but decent chance of upto 10K. Indicating that Sep bulletin dates could move in a sustainable manner between last week of June to mid august. Sustainable => there won't be any retrogression into 2012 prior to these dates.
07-18-2011, 12:57 PM
grnwtg

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

r u sure about the numbers? Spec have them at 159 for India...

My filter are I485 approved on July 2011 to July 2011

category EB2,

For India alone there are 177 cases.
07-18-2011, 01:19 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by grnwtg

My filter are I485 approved on July 2011 to July 2011

category EB2,

For India alone there are 177 cases.

oh ok... might be those cases were added after 8:30 EDT... but anyway thanks for the update... i hope this number goes above 400 by EOM...
07-18-2011, 01:23 PM
pch053

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

i case some of you missed it, i have updated the header to reflect a visa-usage-equation that Spec introduced. Based on that info basically we concluded that movement in August bulletin is based on spillover created upto end of July.

Any additional spillover from August or September will come from the 19K numbers - minimum being 4-5K but decent chance of upto 10K. Indicating that Sep bulletin dates could move in a sustainable manner between last week of June to mid august. Sustainable => there won't be any retrogression into 2012 prior to these dates.

Q,
If there are 10K spillovers in the month of Sep, then some of the spillovers will go to EB3, right? Even though Veni pointed out a PWMB case that got approved in ~2 months, I guess it will be difficult to approve PWMB cases that might be submitted in Sep within 30 days (and most of PWMBs have June, July'07 PDs). My understanding is that if there are 4-5K spillovers, EB2-I/C PDs will be somewhere around July (maybe BTM might also come into play to take in new cases) and if there are 10K spillovers, EB2-I/C will be approved up to mid Aug'07 and there will be 2K - 3K spillovers for EB3-ROW. Am I correct in my understanding here?
07-18-2011, 01:27 PM
krishnav

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

i case some of you missed it, i have updated the header to reflect a visa-usage-equation that Spec introduced. Based on that info basically we concluded that movement in August bulletin is based on spillover created upto end of July.

Any additional spillover from August or September will come from the 19K numbers - minimum being 4-5K but decent chance of upto 10K. Indicating that Sep bulletin dates could move in a sustainable manner between last week of June to mid august. Sustainable => there won't be any retrogression into 2012 prior to these dates.

Hi Q and other Gurus,

If the dates move to last week of June to mid August, do you guys think someone with a PD of mid Sept 2007 (13th) will have to wait till the spillover period next year (around May-June) or do you think there will be a slow paced movement of week or two every month after Sept?? It will be painful for someone to wait for 6-8 months for a date movement of 2-3 weeks.
07-18-2011, 01:27 PM
qesehmk

Theoretically possible. But if they are approving PWMBs in a couple of month then the possibility is extremely SMALL.

Quote:

Originally Posted by pch053

Q,
If there are 10K spillovers in the month of Sep, then some of the spillovers will go to EB3, right? Even though Veni pointed out a PWMB case that got approved in ~2 months, I guess it will be difficult to approve PWMB cases that might be submitted in Sep within 30 days (and most of PWMBs have June, July'07 PDs). My understanding is that if there are 4-5K spillovers, EB2-I/C PDs will be somewhere around July (maybe BTM might also come into play to take in new cases) and if there are 10K spillovers, EB2-I/C will be approved up to mid Aug'07 and there will be 2K - 3K spillovers for EB3-ROW. Am I correct in my understanding here?
07-18-2011, 01:29 PM
qesehmk

Borderline cases are painful unfortunately. The silver line is .... it only delays your EAD and AC21 status and in no way it will delay your time to GC by more than 6 months MAX that what it would be otherwise had you been able to file this year itself.

Quote:

Originally Posted by krishnav

Hi Q and other Gurus,

If the dates move to last week of June to mid August, do you guys think someone with a PD of mid Sept 2007 (13th) will have to wait till the spillover period next year (around May-June) or do you think there will be a slow paced movement of week or two every month after Sept?? It will be painful for someone to wait for 6-8 months for a date movement of 2-3 weeks.
07-18-2011, 01:32 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by pch053

Q,
If there are 10K spillovers in the month of Sep, then some of the spillovers will go to EB3, right? Even though Veni pointed out a PWMB case that got approved in ~2 months, I guess it will be difficult to approve PWMB cases that might be submitted in Sep within 30 days (and most of PWMBs have June, July'07 PDs). My understanding is that if there are 4-5K spillovers, EB2-I/C PDs will be somewhere around July (maybe BTM might also come into play to take in new cases) and if there are 10K spillovers, EB2-I/C will be approved up to mid Aug'07 and there will be 2K - 3K spillovers for EB3-ROW. Am I correct in my understanding here?

Q... EB3 can get the spilover only when EB2 on the whole is current right....and they are not making EB2 I/C current anytime soon...
07-18-2011, 01:35 PM
qesehmk

Very good point! Agree. In my mind reaching Aug 2007 is becoming current and hence the mistake. I stand corrected by you.

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

Q... EB3 can get the spilover only when EB2 on the whole is current right....and they are not making EB2 I/C current anytime soon...
07-18-2011, 01:43 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Very good point! Agree. In my mind reaching Aug 2007 is becoming current and hence the mistake. I stand corrected by you.

Those who make no mistakes are making the biggest mistakes of all — they are attempting nothing new...by someone famous
07-18-2011, 01:47 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by grnwtg

My filter are I485 approved on July 2011 to July 2011

category EB2,

For India alone there are 177 cases.

grnwtg,

Don't worry about the difference

The numbers are apples and oranges.

For instance, I only consider Primary approvals, since Trackitt Dependent approvals don't correctly reflect the the 1.1 approvals per Primary seen in real life. I adjust for that later, when converting to "real world" numbers.

The numbers are also adjusted for Country of Chargeability issues and Porting cases still shown as EB3 in Trackitt, plus a few other corrections.

I also include EB2-NIW.

It would be quite difficult to exactly match my figures.
07-18-2011, 01:56 PM
krishnav

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Borderline cases are painful unfortunately. The silver line is .... it only delays your EAD and AC21 status and in no way it will delay your time to GC by more than 6 months MAX that what it would be otherwise had you been able to file this year itself.

Agreed..but honestly, I am fine with my GC being late than my EAD being late as it will be useful for my wife to start working. I have a job and dont need any stamping atleast till 2013. So, at this point, I just need an EAD so that my wife can start working as its difficult for her to sit at home doing nothing as she was a working person back in India. I am sure a lot of members here have the same issue.

By the way, I still did not get an answer for my other question..Sorry if it was already answered earlier. I follow the forum regularly..but could have missed it somehow.

If the dates move to last week of June to mid August, do you guys think someone with a PD of mid Sept 2007 (13th) will have to wait till the spillover period next year (around May-June) or do you think there will be a slow paced movement of week or two every month after Sept??

Thanks.
07-18-2011, 01:57 PM
srimurthy

This is quite an active and useful blog. A friend of mine suggested and have been trying to follow for a couple of weeks before joining. Great work guys and a lot of info from the experts for someone like me who is new to the race. keep it up.
07-18-2011, 02:06 PM
indiaeb2

Hello Friends - I just joined as a member after reading the post .Awsome predictions. Please can you quide me. My PD is 6th Aug 2007. when do you expect me to atleast file for i485. I missed the last july fisco. Please help me.
07-18-2011, 02:15 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by indiaeb2

Hello Friends - I just joined as a member after reading the post .Awsome predictions. Please can you quide me. My PD is 6th Aug 2007. when do you expect me to atleast file for i485. I missed the last july fisco. Please help me.

you would have got an idea if you have already read the pages... i understand it is hard to cover them all, but just browse last couple and you will find an answer...
07-18-2011, 02:18 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by krishnav

Agreed..but honestly, I am fine with my GC being late than my EAD being late as it will be useful for my wife to start working. I have a job and dont need any stamping atleast till 2013. So, at this point, I just need an EAD so that my wife can start working as its difficult for her to sit at home doing nothing as she was a working person back in India. I am sure a lot of members here have the same issue.

By the way, I still did not get an answer for my other question..Sorry if it was already answered earlier. I follow the forum regularly..but could have missed it somehow.

If the dates move to last week of June to mid August, do you guys think someone with a PD of mid Sept 2007 (13th) will have to wait till the spillover period next year (around May-June) or do you think there will be a slow paced movement of week or two every month after Sept??

Thanks.

krish... i guess the movement should be same as discussed in the last two pages... please give them a read... and whether it would be a sustained movment or a BTM... as of now it is only guess work... cant say for sure...by the way my pd is oct 22 2007... same boat...
07-18-2011, 02:18 PM
indiaeb2

Thanks Soggadu. I read but not sure what is the final prediction. can you please summarize it or please let me know if i have a chance in sep 2011 to file my 485
07-18-2011, 02:19 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by krishnav

If the dates move to last week of June to mid August, do you guys think someone with a PD of mid Sept 2007 (13th) will have to wait till the spillover period next year (around May-June) or do you think there will be a slow paced movement of week or two every month after Sept??

Thanks.

krishnav,

Because porting and PWMB cases coming on stream can use up the normal allocation, my feeling is that dates wouldn't move much until next spillover season, unless it is done specifically to allow a new intake. The numbers of PWMB ramp up significantly from May onwards.
07-18-2011, 02:26 PM
gc_usa

Agree with this. I checked their site and found that some of their emails from CO in 2010 were accurate for July 2010 bulletin. I had also heard from NIU member on some forum/ call. I do think they work for same cause and may have channel established with CO.
07-18-2011, 02:31 PM
krishnav

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

krish... i guess the movement should be same as discussed in the last two pages... please give them a read... and whether it would be a sustained movment or a BTM... as of now it is only guess work... cant say for sure...by the way my pd is oct 22 2007... same boat...

Thanks soggadu..I hope the process for both of us gets done as soon as possible if not next month. Good luck!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

krishnav,

Because porting and PWMB cases coming on stream can use up the normal allocation, my feeling is that dates wouldn't move much until next spillover season, unless it is done specifically to allow a new intake. The numbers of PWMB ramp up significantly from May onwards.

OK..thats what I thought..Thanks Spec.
07-18-2011, 02:49 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by krishnav

Thanks soggadu..I hope the process for both of us gets done as soon as possible if not next month. Good luck!!

Thanks bud... as of now just enjoying with what i have...lets see what sep has in store for us...dont want to keep hopes high... aaya toh aaya baaki sab maaya...
07-18-2011, 02:52 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by indiaeb2

Thanks Soggadu. I read but not sure what is the final prediction. can you please summarize it or please let me know if i have a chance in sep 2011 to file my 485

summary is that there is some speculation of more numbers left over for this FY... so they may clear the back log... what they do after that is anybody's guess... this scenario has not come before for EB category...may be an year move or sustained couple of months move or even stay put at July end and clear the PWMBs and porting cases before going forward for a move... all billion dollar questions no body can answer with confidence... i am not sure if i answered ur question or added more confusion to it...but this the reality for now...
07-18-2011, 03:00 PM
qblogfan

I agree with S.

If they don't move PD intentionally for new intake, Indian folks may have to wait for another year to get PD move again. In this FY, Mr.CO didn't move Indian EB2 PD at all before spillover season started in May. For China EB2, they may move PD slowly because there are still around 3000 new demand for 2007 if they can clear 2007 wave.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

krishnav,

Because porting and PWMB cases coming on stream can use up the normal allocation, my feeling is that dates wouldn't move much until next spillover season, unless it is done specifically to allow a new intake. The numbers of PWMB ramp up significantly from May onwards.
07-18-2011, 03:02 PM
indiaeb2

Thanks Soggadu. Your last sentense made my day " am not sure if i answered ur question or added more confusion to it."....
I am clear now.. looks like only God knows
07-18-2011, 03:02 PM
vizcard

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

summary is that there is some speculation of more numbers left over for this FY... so they may clear the back log... what they do after that is anybody's guess... this scenario has not come before for EB category...may be an year move or sustained couple of months move or even stay put at July end and clear the PWMBs and porting cases before going forward for a move... all billion dollar questions no body can answer with confidence... i am not sure if i answered ur question or added more confusion to it...but this the reality for now...

Perfect summary. It's painful to wait especially for those on the cusp both of reality (2007 PDs) and of projections (Q1, Q2 2008).
07-18-2011, 03:14 PM
neospeed

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

Thanks bud... as of now just enjoying with what i have...lets see what sep has in store for us...dont want to keep hopes high... aaya toh aaya baaki sab maaya...

lol this is so funny :)

aaya toh aaya baaki sab maaya...
07-18-2011, 03:19 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by vizcard

Perfect summary. It's painful to wait especially for those on the cusp both of reality (2007 PDs) and of projections (Q1, Q2 2008).

not even my PD...but my date of birth is also on cusp.... damn it...now i see the reason why it is all like this... lol...
07-18-2011, 03:27 PM
Monica12

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

not even my PD...but my date of birth is also on cusp.... damn it...now i see the reason why it is all like this... lol...

LOL!
btw, great summary Soggadu :)
07-18-2011, 03:30 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monica12

LOL!
btw, great summary Soggadu :)

hey...moniiiiicaaaaa... where have you been... i guess with the summary i added more confusion...now everybody is so confused that they stopped asking questions ...lol....welcoming all to the C club... refer to the header to know what C is ;-)....
07-18-2011, 03:38 PM
Monica12

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

hey...moniiiiicaaaaa... where have you been... i guess with the summary i added more confusion...now everybody is so confused that they stopped asking questions ...lol....welcoming all to the C club... refer to the header to know what C is ;-)....

LOL !
you are toooo... funny Soggadu :) :)
I can't stay away from the C club for too long, now can I ? especially when there is entertainment involved too......
07-18-2011, 03:42 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monica12

LOL !
you are toooo... funny Soggadu :) :)
I can't stay away from the C club for too long, now can I ? especially when there is entertainment involved too......

No you cant... we are all ABCD's for this reason... entertainment is just a by product of C club...

ABCD --> American based confused desi...
07-18-2011, 03:47 PM
Monica12

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

No you cant... it's in our life style... we are all ABCD's for no reason... entertainment is just a by product of C club...

ABCD --> American based confused desi...

LOL! That is correct.
Hopefully Sep VB will take care of some of that confusion....
Actually, whenever I need some entertainment...I just look at your avatar...it totally cracks me up...
07-18-2011, 03:51 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monica12

LOL! That is correct.
Hopefully Sep VB will take care of some of that confusion....
Actually, whenever I need some entertainment...I just look at your avatar...it totally cracks me up...

yes...through my avatar, i tirelessly keep dancing giving a hope to the EB community... damn... where is my EB2 ratna...

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