Yes that's PERMs, so should it be multiply by dependents( *2.5) to get the actual demand.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
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Yes that's PERMs, so should it be multiply by dependents( *2.5) to get the actual demand.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
The list of approved 140's back in April 2018 (https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...r_May_2018.PDF) specifies the dependent demand as 1.0 and 1.1 for EB2 and 3 respectively.Quote:
Originally Posted by Raj0687
They have used https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-stat...ok/2016/table7 as reference.
We can see over the next few bulletins if my theory got any base or not.
Gurus,Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
Any estimation on when the EB3 I dates move beyond May 2010? Any possibility to happen that this FY? My PD is May 27th 2010 EB2I and i'm willing to downgrade to file I-485 and have the EAD.
I hope to receive some advise from some knowledgeable folks here. My PD is EB2I 5/5/2010 :) yep missed it by that much. No worries though, it is what it is and there are more important things in life going on! My wife will be eligible for EB1B sometime in Spring 2021 so we are in wait and watch mode whether to downgrade to EB3I if the FAD crosses mine. Does it make sense to port down with just DF for EB3 or wait until FAD crosses over? Is there any advantage like getting early in line by using DF? Are there any drawbacks to using DF in EB3 when the original petition is EB2?
Sorry, that's a lot of questions so thanks in advance for your time! It would be great to collect the answers and do a flow chart so that people can plug in their case and determine the best option to move forward :).
EB3 I forward movement after April 2010 will most probably happen in the last quarter.Quote:
Originally Posted by Chilli19
AceMan - By April 2010 in your above post, you mean 1 Apr 2010 or 30 Apr 2010? My PD is 28 Apr 2010 in EB3-India and I am expecting atleast my filing date would get current in April visa bulletin (not sure though if USCIS respect that or not) . What is your opinion now for the same after Feb 2019 visa bulletin predictions?Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
Thanks
My understanding and predictions
1. EB3I Date of Filing (DF) was moved till Apr 2010 to coincide with EB2I I485 pending inventory. Maybe they received 3K I485 filings and did not move DF in Feb bulletin.
2. In Early part of Q3 i.e Apr, EB3I Date of Filing will be moved based on anticipated Spillover i.e 3K based on previous years. I estimate 2-3 months movement assuming 1200-1300 new EB3I I485 filings.
3. Till End of Q3 i.e May, EB3I Final Action (FA) will moved to date which can accommodate yearly quota of 3K visas
Below comment in the Bulletin gives me hope that EB3ROW demand is less and we might get more than 6K visas allotted to EB3I in FY19.
**Philippines: Rapid movement to generate demand.**
I am talking about Final Action Dates. Filing dates, they mentioned will not be respecting from Feb. However the final dates did not move for any category, and USCIS might be accepting it for Feb 2019 also.Quote:
Originally Posted by BigAnt
Unlike EB2, EB3 is not having enough demand this FY. It has enough signs to move all the way through to 1st May 2010 and all the people who are downgrading already had a prior EB3 petitions.
Will the move to 1st May 2010 happen in the June bulletin or July bulletin? I expect it to stay there for the rest of the year as there is reasonable demand.
Where would the Filing Date land? I was expecting the FAD to progress further because of the spill overs that would be applied.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
They don't plan to use filing date anymore for this FY is what I am sensing. If we end up this FY with 1st May 2010 for EB3, I expect them to set the filing date to 1st April 2011 for October 2019. Philippines movement is the key for EB3 I to get beyond the current limit.Quote:
Originally Posted by NJMavarick
I would like to be positive. However with no clarity on total number between May 2010 to June 2011. It seems little challenging. I am assuming there are around 30K (EB2 and EB3) petitions between May 2010 and June 2011. With dependents it would be around 60K, and with around 10k applications per year, it will be about 6 years. That is not considering the 15K application there are there till May 2010. So very confused with so many different viewsQuote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven
I agree with you .. 100%, can one of the guru's please tell us why his assumption is not right ...Quote:
Originally Posted by sanjeevtrivedi
If we have an Immigration deal done in the next week or two, all our 'predictions' will go for toss fellas..Quote:
Originally Posted by EB22010Dec
Quote:
Sen. Lisa Murkowski said a broader immigration deal is “clearly in the mix” as is a broader agreement on federal spending levels.
That's a pipe dream. It's good to be positive. But nothing has been pas several years. We can be optimistic but face the reality of the situation/mess we are inQuote:
Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar
The indications are all pointing to something brewing on the immigration front, the Liar-in-Chief saying some un-intelligible crap about H1B Visa holders, then Sen. Mancin pitching the CIR and now Sen Lisa coming out with her statement..this time it will be totally different from all the long drawn IV advocacy campaigns. A deal will be made and quickly passed before anyone knows what is in the Bill..Quote:
Originally Posted by sanjeevtrivedi
Aceman - I was shocked to read these dependent ratios first time. Then I realized what these were. They are for ALL countries.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
A typical person from ROW or even other countries has wait of 2-3 years most and has just finished his Masters - files for GC while he is single.
So the overall numbers are skewed.
In my view dependent demand for India are what we normally know - 2.2 to 2.5
You are right to be apprehensive. One has to look at EB2 wait over last 6-7 years to realize how slow things can get. Barring a change in law or extraordinary spillovers the great CRAWL would continue.Quote:
Originally Posted by sanjeevtrivedi
Guys, wanted to know what you think about EB2 to EB3 downgrade for someone with EB2 priority date in late May 2009 (mine is May 26th 2009). Do you think is it worth it? I am thinking of this as EB2 dates are barely moving while EB3 dates are jumping in months.
Not worth it, it might take few more months. Why take chances, who knows what complications come out in downgrade processQuote:
Originally Posted by tendlya
There is a very strong possibility of EB1-3 moving into May 2010 till year (at the minimum Filing dates)Quote:
Originally Posted by Chilli19
Question is should you downgrade your application. I work for a very large American consulting company and we have between 5k to 10k people in the GC queue.
Our attorneys are completely reluctant to the idea of downgrading post May-2010, leave the cases where people have EAD and between April-09-Apr-10.
We had series of meetings with them and they said unless things get better, its too big of a risk. I know a lot of us think downgrading is the best opinion. frankly even I think so. But they said they feel in the current political scenario, its not recommended to touch change things. They spoke about possibility of rules getting into place for this porting discouraging porting.
Any way to know how many EB3I folks waiting with PD APR 2009 - DEC 2009?
When the latest pending inventory was published, folks with PD APR 2009 - DEC 2009 in EB3I were not able to submit I-485.
Why do most of the gurus/experts think there are not many people with EB3I Priority Date in 2009?
Because they would have ported to EB2.Quote:
Originally Posted by swaugh
I don't think that most of them who upgraded to EB2 (with PD in 2009) have EADs and now they can file I-485 using EB3 I-140. Is this scenario under estimated ?
Quote:
Originally Posted by excalibur123
It can also mean that many of the Indian 140 filers are spouses with their own petition.
A few employers will be ready to reduce your GC time line from Years to Months by allowing downgrades.Quote:
Originally Posted by sanjeevtrivedi
Otherwise it will be a future threat to their business as you will have your own priorities/plans after getting the GC.
Unless you show a threat right now by moving to your old employer who will be ready to file I485 with old I140 (if you have one).
That's about Employer's community behavior.
For Big Lawyers it will be a onetime business to file downgrades but they loose regular future income as these guys gets greened hence they can say every reason to block it.
For small Lawyers they have a huge learning curve in downgrades and fear of RFEs due to current environment.
All in all this downgrades will not happen and hence the percentage factor I fixed is 25% (1 in 4).
It will take at least 2020 to get this settled by that time EB3I dates can swing to 2013 or even further into future.
I still emphasis that the EB3-I queue is a sparsely filled (almost empty) queue for my calculations.
This wait game has become a billion dollar industry now. Every one will resist for downgrades.
Imagine that these EB2India applicants alone can fund the border wall if there is a onetime fee asked for the faster GC.
Statistically, this can't be compared to China downgrades as their applicants size is just 10% of Indian applicants size.
I am also thinking 70% of the EB3I to EB2I Porters , who does not have EAD will try to go back and file AOS in EB3, because EB2 takes time . This group in 2009 , 2010...will cover all the Quota for couple of years. Where is the chance for movement for EB3I? Did i miss anything because all Gurus expectation is EB3I will move fast because that is empty Queue.Quote:
Originally Posted by swaugh
I work for a fortune50 company, and the law firm(one of the big ones in the country) agreed to file downgrades.
Atleast there are 5-6 people in my company that I know of(there may be more) are getting ready to file or initiate the process. Most of them have PDs between Aug-2009 and April-2010. All these folks originally filed in EB3 and later upgraded to EB2.
They would be filing 140 and 485 in parallel.
Also I heard the attorney was flexible and mentioned that either EB2 or EB3 application can be used down the road for the getting the actual GC ie;for FAD, not sure how that works. What I heard is EB2 job description can always be used to file in EB3, and not the other way round. So no additional PERM filing is required.
very well put together. Lawyers are buying vacation homes in Bahamas since you're backlogged. Same with big company. I worked for Deloitte/Fragomen (which I'm guessing the previous poster was referring to) - if you're stuck, it helps them. If you're free. it helps you.Quote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven
Do what you can to move ahead. I'm March EB2 2010 and I don't have any option to downgrade..so I'll just be waiting.
There will be a small subset of people who missed the boat of filing and do not have EAD. They would be jumping on the first opportunity to file in EB-3. As the gap widens between EB2/3, more and more people will start jumping the bandwagon of downgrading. For the next few months people will play the waiting game to see what is happening, as we start hearing some success stories of downgrade, people who are tired of waiting in EB-2 will begin taking action. This FY, looks like dates should move steadily but should eventually stall in late 2010 to early 2011.
Now EB-2/3 should be looked as a single queue and hope that all the horizontal spillovers are applied to India and not moved to EB-1.
Hi,
My PD is Oct-2010 EB2 from previous employer. Currently my existing employer has started perm and it's in initial stages (PWD). The perm job desc qualifies for EB2. I am hoping that by the time my perm gets approved (hopefully not audited), I will have a clear idea of EB3 movement beyond May-2010. In that case I can make a decision to file my I-140 in EB3.
Does anyone think there can be a pushback from attorneys in this case for filing I-140 in EB3 although perm being EB2? This is not the downgrade as they don't have to amend I-140 or start a new perm.
Appreciate any feedback.
Thanks,
Dev
One estimate CO gave last month was it will take 5 years to clear all the cases in EB-2 I until Dec 2010. What would have been his assumptions. As we know there are approx 15K application (until Apr 10). And most likely there would be around 2000 cases per month from May- Dec 2010, which takes overall pending application 15K+16K= 31K application in EB2 I until Dec 2010.
31k without considering dependents in 5 years = 6000 application per year ( with dependents 12000)
What is his Rationale, is he considering that people from EB2 to EB3 will will downgrade. When we try to compare his statement with different data points, it does not make sense
Any one has a better perspective to share?
I am inclined to agree with YTEleven here. I think that there are not many EB2 folks whose PD is before May 2010 and who do not have an EAD. That is the reason we see the Filing Dates as April 2010 and will have the FAD move 3 months in the next few bulletins.Quote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven
I think we all agree that in this FY, the FAD for EB3 will cross May 2010. Lets assume it does then how soon will people be able to downgrade? I am hearing mixed responses from people who I have spoken to. Some companies have outright refused to downgrade while some companies have agreed to. In that scenario 25% number put by YTEleven makes sense.
We also need to keep in mind that it will take at least 7-8 months for the I-140s to get approved. Do you think CO will be waiting for the approvals or will advance the dates further down? I am betting on EB3 FAD dates to move to 2011. If anyone thinks differently, please do lay it out here.
2011 - I disagree, there is no basis to come to this conclusion.Quote:
Originally Posted by NJMavarick
CO says 'Up to 3 months" till May. It is not guaranteed to be 3 months every bulletin.
The reason I mentioned 2011 is because the approvals from downgrades will take some time to come in. Would you agree? In that case, lets take for hypothetical reason the dates are Jan 2010 in the May or June bulletin. Where do you think will the FAD dates be in the next 4 bulletins keeping in mind that demand has to be generated and what about spill overs? Downgrades will kick in only if its crosses May 2010 and will take 7-8 months to approve.Quote:
Originally Posted by swaugh
Sanjeev,Quote:
Originally Posted by sanjeevtrivedi
Here are a few mistakes made in the assumptions made above
i) The 15K till May 2010 already include the dependents. So no more additions to the numbers here.
ii) It's the july PI data (15k) and the predictions made by CO were a month or two old. So he probably has more accurate picture of the numbers left compared to everyone in this group.
iii) Going forward the average estimate (on the higher end) could be 1500 applicants per month (including dependents). I believe this because the country was still turning back from a recession and hence believe the number of applicants really ramped up from 2012 and onwards.
iv) I believe he was also factoring in some horizontal SO in his calculations as per the trend he expects to see plus ZERO upgades to EB2. I am not sure he was factoring in the downgrades to EB3.
v) There could be also be some redundancy where (estimating 30%) both the spouses have approved 1-140 (E.g. Myself and my wife)/ multiple applications or maybe some people have moved back to India or migrated to other countries like Canada.
Just my 2 cents to make sense of CO's prediction.
Siva
2000 cases per month from May - Dec 2010 is a very high number considering the total perms for 2010 was around 22 K. Just not possible. Also note the fact it was a recession year.Quote:
Originally Posted by sanjeevtrivedi
His rationale is simple arithmetic. EB2 I has about 14,000 people waiting for GC till 2010. EB2 I gets 2804 visas a year. 14000/2804 will be 5 years.
Do you know why USCIS is not accepting the Filing date nor saying follow FAD's for employment based GC's?Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
If it takes 5 years to clear EB2I up to 2010, people go to any extent for downgrade . if it started from PERM also with ported date, it takes less time. so EB3 may move faster for some time but with high volume of EB2I to EB3I porting, possibility of dates may go back.
Both CO and USCIS notified that they may not be respecting the filing date from Feb bulletin. It appears they have enough data to play with for this FY already.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcvijay
Sounds like the reply I got from my law firm that starts with F....Quote:
Originally Posted by Nov2010